Prelude to Long-Term Indian Designs To Undermine Pakistan’s Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity

Columnist Col (Retd) IFTIKHAR AHMED talks about the attempts by India to undermine our integrity and sovereignty.

The 24th of December 1999 saw yet another hijacking of an Indian IA-300 Airbus bound for Delhi from Kathmandu, Nepal, which reportedly was taken over by the hijackers in the Indian airspace shortly after it had taken off.

The unfolding of the subsequent events turned so bizarre that even the Indians who apparently masterminded the feverish episode got increasingly perturbed over the unexpected course which it took. The hijacking drama of 1971; hailed by the Pakistani hierarchy at that time as India had expected; had been intelligently executed leading into the ultimate dismemberment of Pakistan. This in the background, India once again tried the same tactic to revenge her failure in Kargil, this time using the full force of her proven propaganda machines. The intelligent handling of the hijacked plane by Pakistani authorities at Lahore airport and the subsequent events which took place at Qandahar, probably were too unexpected for the Indian planners who got astounded to the limit of inactivity. Sensing their blueprint going astray they almost got into a torpid state which was highly criticized by the Indian public and the press. Not only that they got sluggish, but also their utterances and statements kept changing so frequently that it became difficult for even the Indian hierarchy to maintain a logical cohesiveness in these statements. The statement regarding the identity of the hijackers, the alleged transfer of hijackers from a PIA flight to the Indian airliner at Kathmandu airport, the manner in which the demands of the hijackers were made known, the inactivity exhibited at Amritsar Airport and the unintelligibly sluggish Indian efforts for the release of the passengers and dispatch of high level mediating team, shroud this whole episode in strikingly unusual mystery. The unfolding events were pointing towards a likely Indian objective of projecting Pakistan as a terrorist state. Apparently the opinion of majority of the countries of the world and the west, could not be mobilized in consonance with her objective of getting Pakistan declared as terrorist sponsoring state. India will stop at nothing less than damaging Pakistan’s image amongst the world countries besides working to damage her integrity. Keeping in mind the East Pakistan debacle, India may embark upon yet another adventure, this time pushing ahead with a limited offensive against most damaging and strategically important objectives to destroy Pakistan’s integration. India’s direct interference in East Pakistan across an internationally recognized border, received very little international condemnation which has encouraged India to pursue yet another adventure, this time against the sovereignty of Pakistan in the garb of hot pursuit against the so-called infiltrators across the LoC or against a target in the south, considered most damaging to Pakistan’s integrity. Though such option is likely to attract international condemnation, but is not likely to go beyond that in case Indian attempt succeeds and she is able to win over the support of the west.

Once again we are in a dilemma. The Kargil issue, the negative aspects of our atomic explosion, extreme strained relations with India, economic difficulties and above all the military take over - a fact resented by majority of democratic countries of the world -, are the factors which make our credibility at its lower ebb and strengthen the Indian stance. Our support to Muslim cause is viewed and projected as an Islamic fundamentalist move towards furthering Islamic ideology, which is dreaded by the west considering it a serious threat to capitalism. Encouraged by these events and as an aftermath of the hijacking episode, option of over running Pakistan’s territory for bargaining can be a plausible hypothesis wherein selection of correct objective and time factor will be the two over riding factors for India. The action has to be swift and fruit bearing because a prolonged battle will be subject to a number of strategic and diplomatic constraints. If this hypothesis is what the Indians plan to follow, they are likely to pursue it to its logical conclusion, all the while striving to maintain the international opinion in India’s favour.

The west is disposed to believe the so-called Islamic Fundamentalists responsible for the international terrorism; which is believed to have moved from East to South-west Asia, i.e., Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Islamic Jehad in Kashmir is dubbed as Pakistani sponsored Islamic Fundamentalist terrorist activities against the Indian government. By and large Pakistan’s brotherly relations with Taliban Government is making her position weak with the west who appear to have accepted the ploy of Osama bin Laden as the major terrorist force behind all alleged major or minor terrorist activities aimed at undermining the American interests the world over. India will thus be looking forward to creating a situation, not hesitating to even undertaking clandestine operations against the western interest through masterminding a terrorist offensive and blaming it on Pakistan sponsored Taliban terrorists or even the so called Pakistan sponsored Kashmiri militants. Any such situation once created will not only reduce the pressure exerted by the Kashmiri freedom fighters but can most likely be used as a pretext to undertaking a ground offensive in Kashmir in the so-called hot pursuit. Our credibility under such situation will drop to its lower ebb with the west, who might at the time even threaten Pakistan against the use of atomic weapon, which has in the recent past promoted Pakistan to a position of parity with India. India’s fruitless ventures along the LoC in the wake of Kargil operation and the effectiveness of freedom fighters may however refrain India from undertaking major offensive in Kashmir, but may prompt her to try her luck along the international border with Pakistan where she will be free to use her most advanced war machine, under ideal ground conditions, against many times her lesser adversary. Gaining important ground for bargaining purposes being her objective and time factor of paramount importance, India will most probably employ her mechanized army closely supported by her well-armed air force. Consequent to the presence of extensive defensive systems including canals and built-up area, offensive across the border with Northern Punjab may be prohibitive in terms of men and material beside being time consuming and not in consonance with India’s Limited War Doctrine. The Green Belt, South of Sukkur-Khairpur, is also extensively cultivated and populated with large and small canals criss-crossing its entire length, beside the Left Bank Outfall Drain (LBOD). Employment of armour in its ideal sense thus can hardly be executed, thereby adversely affecting time and space factor, which the Indians will least afford under their proposed doctrine. Desert, North of Khairpur may thus be the likeliest choice for a blitzkrieg aiming at a bridge head across Guddu and Sukkur Barrages, extending up to Kohe Suleman Range, bordering Loti-Dera Bugti; aimed at isolating the Southern Sindh from the rest of the country. This in progress, India may strive to pin down Pakistan’s forces by opening fronts all along the border which will reduce pressure on her main offensive. Such an option, once successful, will tax Pakistan’s resources to the maximum and may split the country into two with little but arduous communication existing for our operational movements. The situation will become dangerously critical if India succeeds in persuading US to forbid Pakistan against the use of atomic weapons, which is most likely in case the Indians have had the groundwork intelligently streamlined. Therefore, there is a need to strengthen the defences against mechanized columns through intelligently integrating Anti-Tank passive defences i.e., inundation and minefields, with active defences. Employment of mass Anti-Tank weapons (Egypt-Israel Ramdan war of ’73 (be ensured beside placement of quick reaction forces near critical locations for beefing up the defences and ensuring to foul any ground attempt by Indian forces aimed at making a bridgehead across River Indus.

To mature her Akhand Bharat dream, India is too inclined and capable to sacrifice the innocent civilian if it can bring damage to Pakistan’s interests. The anti-terrorist US-India collaboration is ominous for Pakistan. India under present scenario will stop at nothing less than bringing world condemnation against Pakistan, consequent to creating false acquisitions by masterminding terrorist activities and blaming it on Pakistan. To counter India’s propaganda, Pakistan must acquire effective counter-propaganda facilities and maintain close contact with friendly countries.

With the demise of Soviet Union and consequent cessation of cold war, the so-called Islamic fundamentalism is now viewed by the capitalist world with distrust and trepidation, considering it detrimental to capitalistic interests. Ethnic genocide in Bosnia Herzegovina and Kosovo might have gone unnoticed with considerable indifference, had it not been considered perilous to the peace of Europe in general and the interests of the G-8 in particular. Iraq was equipped and used to destabilize Iran, and as long as it was considered useful for promoting the Western interests, it was supported, but destroyed once it had served its purpose. On 25, December 1979, the Soviets invaded Afghanistan and within a year, CIA sponsored ISI to channelise her multi-billion dollar arms support for the armed struggle of Afghan people, then called the “Freedom Fighters”, against the RED army. To teach a lesson to the Soviets, the freedom fighters were even supplied with the most advanced surface to air shoulder fired Stinger missiles. The eight-year of Afghan War not only brought economic and human misery to the Afghan people, but subjected Pakistan to a lot more in the shape of Kalashnikov culture, the global Opium and Heroin trade and the freedom fighters now called terrorists. For eight long years Pakistan was front-line state against Communism and sustained Soviet threats of ”Dire Consequences” continuously. The “most allied ally in south Asia”, is now at the verge of being declared a “state sponsoring terrorism”, once the cold war era is at its logical conclusion, and Pakistan no more needed, as against India who always voted against the West in the UN whenever the interests of Soviets clashed with the West. Kashmir, despite the presence of Security Council’s Resolution, is not likely to be treated as Kosovo or East Timor in the absence of western interests. India, as a South Asian giant with a lucrative market and viewed as stabilizing force against Chinese bogy offers a much better future prospects for USA’s interest and thus ranks much higher.

The recent incident of Iftikhar Abad, the hijacking of Indian airliner and subsequent developments, the involvement of “RAW” in the promotion of terrorists activities in Pakistan and above all her efforts to declare Kashmiri jehadi forces as terrorist elements are clear indicators exhibiting Indian intentions. Efforts are made to project Pakistan as the aggressor with the intentions to undermine Indian interests through use of brute force in the garb of terrorist operations. Such state of affairs is extremely perturbing with serious consequences, which must not be taken lightly. We therefore, need to attend to the following:-

• Foreign Affairs Ministry must be mobilized to maintain close contact with friendly countries, regarding relation with India, apprising them about new developments consistently.

• Troops must maintain highest degree of alertness along the sensitive areas of LoC and the international borders.

• Defences must be improved at critical points along our international borders by employing enough Quick Reaction forces at appropriate locations to foul any surprise attempt by Indians.

• Minimum deterrence in the conventional and unconventional forces must be maintained in consonance with our strategic compulsions.

• Where necessary natural and artificial defences must be integrated in the light of the expected enemy action.

• Re-location of reserve formations, in the light of changed operational scenario along our western borders, needs to be undertaken.

• Stress should be laid on the promotion of unconventional weapons and its delivery system, which must receive the highest priority.

• Initiation of intensive propaganda campaign at all levels to counter the Indian misinformation offensive.

There is an age-old Roman concept “If you want peace, prepare for war”. If Pakistan wants to prevent a nuclear or conventional war, it better be in a position to threaten the enemy with unacceptable damage if she chooses to start war. It certainly is a crude doctrine, but is a tried one, and has managed to prevent war between East and West. We must never get complacent and must continue to improve on quality and quantity besides perfecting and improving the technology in the long-range ballistic missiles. Beside the strategic delivery system we must improve the tactical atomic warhead capability and our strike potentials at theatre level. This perfected deterrence will ensure prevention of military offensive against Pakistan’s territorial integrity, but this is not the only field in which India can damage Pakistan’s interest. She will do her best to isolate and project Pakistan a rogue country and undermine Kashmiri Mujahideens’ freedom efforts as anti-India terrorist activities through intensive use of information technology coupled with clandestine operations aimed at destroying our will to resist and creation of insecurity amongst our public. India will stop at nothing less than achieving her objective and we must evolve our strategy, all encompassing, at the National Security Council level which must be fully implemented not allowing complacency to retard its effectiveness.

India is vexing US into believing that she could annihilate Pakistan into extinction any time she so desired. Indian aspiration behind this blackmailing is the yearing to goad the west into accepting the Indian’s “GOOD GUY” image and put all the blame on Pakistan for antagonizing her. The “Limited War” rhetoric’s bespeak of India’s over confidence and nefarious intentions; eluding to concede to Pakistan a similar capability. Her long purchase list of conventional weapons is to urge Pakistan into a similar shopping not only to tax her ailing economy but also to divert her priority from nation building to defence purchases. India’s probing military adventures are ominous and misleading in regards with her long-term objectives which are aimed at undermining Pakistan’s economic political and national integrity. India’s belligerence is guiding her into choosing confrontational ambience which is, non-conducive for economic interaction between South-Asian Nations and is most damaging to India herself. The bilateral concept has failed and is not about to encourage any meaningful dialogues and there is a need for the US to intervene if the South Asian disaster is to be averted.