National Missile Defence of the United States

Patron Lt Gen (Retd) SARDAR F.S. LODI writes about the ongoing debate in the USA on this vital issue.

On Saturday 8th July the United States failed in its effort to destroy an incoming target warhead in space with an anti-ballistic-missile weapon, in a $ 100 million test of a planned National Missile Defence (NMD) system. "We did not intercept the warhead tonight. We are disappointment." Said Air Force Lieut-General Ronald Kadish, director of the missile defence effort while briefing reporters after the weapon failed to separate from its booster rocket and intercept the dummy warhead over the Pacific Ocean as planned.

This was the second failure in three tries of the missile defence system. This could delay the decision by President Clinton later this year on whether to start building a new radar system in Alaska next year for a limited missile system. There is bitter opposition from Russia and China to the proposed US national missile defence system.

The "hit-to-kill" weapon was fired from Kwajalein Atoll in the south Pacific but did not separate from the second stage of its liftoff rocket. The weapon thus had no chance of intercepting a warhead launched 20 minutes earlier from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, about 7,700 km, away. Lieut-General Kadish said, "It tells me we have more engineering work to do. We had good confidence in this ..... This is rocket science.....things do happen."

A 37-year-old Minuteman II rocket blasted off from a heavily guarded launch pad from Vandenberg Air Force Base, 200 km north of Los Angeles on the Pacific coast. Its 1.5m long nose cone carried a mock warhead and a deflated Mylar balloon, depicting an incoming hostile missile warhead fired from Pyongyang in North Korea or Tehran in Iran.

20 minutes later a missile interceptor was launched from Kwajalein Atoll 7,700 km away in the Marshal Islands of the south Pacific in an attempt to destroy the warhead in space. Inside its nose cone was a $ 20 million bullet known as the exoatmospheric kill vehicle. It looks like a snub nosed bullet round, is 1.4 m tall and weighs 54 kg. Its job is to find and then destroy the incoming missile warhead from Pyongyang or Tehran. But the interceptor vehicle failed to separate from its booster rocket, causing the onboard computer to shutdown.

US Under-Secretary of Defence Jacques Gansler told reporters he felt the design of the planned NMD system "is pretty solid," but declined to say what recommendation Defence Secretary William Cohen might make to President Clinton in the coming weeks, whether the system can be deployed by 2005. At present the government is studying the political considerations and military options of the NMD system as a whole.

The interceptor missile, with a successful intercept in October last year, but a test failure in January this year was supposed to intercept and smash into the incoming hostile missile warhead at a speed of 24,100 kph, about 10 minutes after it was launched. The failure was a disappointment for Boeing Co., which is coordinating the intricate NMD system of weapons, radars and communications, and for Raytheon Corp., which builds the prototype 55 kg "hit-to-kill" projectile.

President Clinton is facing opposition from Russia and China who fear that a perfected and deployed US anti-missile system could neutralize their nuclear arsenals. There is also pressure from the conservatives in the US Congress who want the deployment of a limited protection against threats from such states as North Korea and Iran.

Many scientists have, however, charged that the three tests conducted so far have been controlled and "dumbed down" to make the target easier to hit than it would be in real operations. It seems that prominent scientists and former US government officials have also warned the president that the technology is so immature that it would be a folly to begin building a system that could cost anywhere from $ 30 billion to $ 60 billion.

Although the latest missile test failure may delay President Clinton's decision to start building a base in Alaska next year, it is not a serious setback for the NMD programme. Another 16 tests for the "hit-to-kill” projectiles are scheduled in the next five years. Each successive test is designed to be of a higher technical proficiency and more demanding than the previous one. It is, therefore, expected to improve its ability to seek out and destroy an incoming enemy missile.

After a detailed examination of the data from the failed missile test by the Pentagon, and the Boeing and Raytheon companies, the US defence secretary is expected to inform the President regarding NMD's immediate future. The report will be based primarily on the present state of technology and the projected cost of a system consisting of 20 interceptors in Alaska in 2005, being increased to 100 interceptors in later years.

It is certainly a high-risk programme in terms of cost and the high-tech expertise required. It is also a difficult decision to make in committing the nation, on the present insufficient technical data that is available and the success rate of the tests. President Clinton has said that his decision will also consider a pending detailed intelligence analysis of the threat that may be emerging from the potential enemies such as North Korea, as well as US ties with its European allies, China and Russia.

Europe is worried that nuclear arms control could easily unravel, and result in a new arms-race in the region. As the United States would be breaking the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty if it deployed even a limited National Missile Defence (NMD) system.

The Russian reaction has been rather strong. A senior foreign ministry official in Moscow said: "Russia hopes Mr Clinton will abandon plans to deploy a national missile defence shield after Saturday's failed anti-missile test." Defence Ministry's General Leonid Ivashov said: "Russia will always have the means to overcome any American ABM system," President Vladimir Putin has vowed to tear up all agreements if the Clinton administration moves to deploy the system without first reaching an agreement with Moscow on revising the ABM treaty.

The National Missile Defence system is designed to seek out and destroy an incoming hostile missile warhead in space, before it reaches its target area on land. When a hostile missile lifts off, the infrared sensors on a US satellite locate 35,500 km above the earth should be able to pick up its flaming plume. The satellite will alert ground-based early-warning radars, which would be located in Alaska, California, Britain, Greenland and Massachusetts. The hostile missile will likely reach a top-speed of over 23,700 km/h and attain a peak altitude of about 1,600 km above the earth.

The data and the updates from the ground-based radars will start pouring into the US Space Command's outpost at Cheyenne Mountains in Colorado Springs. The computers there will assemble a "weapons task plan" based on the incoming hostile missile's trajectory and any decoys trying to fool and divert the US interceptor missile. Within minutes the first map of this electronic data will be flashed thousands of km away into the electronic brain of the interceptor missile.

After taking on the latest position of the incoming hostile missile, the interceptor missile will lift off. About three minutes later, having discarded its boosters, it will be flying at a speed of about 7,900 km/h, and be about 2,400 km from its target. Over the next six to eight minutes, the interceptor will try to locate the incoming hostile missile and guide itself into a collision with it. The interceptor continues to get help from the ground-based radars through a special X-band radar system.

As the interceptor and the incoming hostile missile reach to within 800 km of each other, the onboard radars of the interceptor should be able to pick up the hostile warhead. From hereon the interceptor is on its own, with no help from the ground it guides itself to the target. The interceptor is expected to smash into the side of the incoming hostile warhead about 230 km above the earth. The entire system is expected to cost around $ 30 to $ 60 billion.

The main reason given for these tests and eventual deployment of the US defence shield is the possibility of a missile attack from North Korea. This has come at a time when both North and South Korea are making a serious effort to get together, to forge a peaceful relationship between the two countries. A nuclear threat from that direction seems very remote. In any case one doubts very much if any country would dare contemplate such an attack on the United States, when retaliation could pulverize that country many times over.

The US President faces strong pressure in Congress to take steps to construct the Missile Defence system, designed to shield the United States from limited attacks by so-called rogue states such as North Korea, Iran and Iraq. But the Missile Defence system has been opposed by Russia and China, which say it violates the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty. The question to be considered is whether there is any threat to the security of the United States and will this initiative lead to an arms race in Europe and Asia. Experts believe it will.

Chinese President Jiang Zemin and the Russian President Vladimir Putin on his visit to China warned the United States of "grave" security consequences if it goes ahead with plans to build missile shields. "The plan by the United States to develop a National Missile Defence System (NMD) seeks unilateral military advantages," they said in a joint statement, referring to the missile shield for the United States.

"Implementing this plan will have the most grave adverse consequences not only to the national security of Russia, China and other countries, but also to the security and international strategic stability of the United States itself." China and Russia said, missile shields for the United States and Asia threatened a new arms race, according to the statement.

The United States has proposed and seems firm in its stand to build a National Missile Defence system against missile attacks from "states of concern" (new name for rogue states), such as North Korea, Iran and Iraq, and a Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) system to shield its troops and allies in Asia. This probably refers to the defence of Taiwan at present and may later be expanded to include India, which is emerging as the linchpin of US policy in the region.

The United States public opinion has perhaps been eloquently described in an editorial written by The Washington Post after the missile test. It says that the latest failure of the Pentagon's missile defence system in development does not alter the underlying reason to seek such a system. One such reason was eloquently having been provided by China which claims a right to bomb or invade Taiwan and it does not want anyone to stand in its way. It opposes a theatre missile that might protect Taiwan. It opposes a US continental defence that would reduce China's ability to threaten the United States with nuclear missiles and thus, its leaders hope, discourage America from coming to Taiwan's aid in a crises. The other reasons are to protect the United States against an accidental launch from Russia or elsewhere; to prevent other nations, such as North Korea or Iraq, from attacking the United States or limiting its freedom of action to defend neighbouring states (South Korea, Kuwait).

The US administration has acknowledged the common sense of defending against a North Korean threat, says the paper, but wants permission from Russia to amend the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty first. But Moscow is campaigning hard against US plans.