August 2000     Vol 4      No 1     Reg No.SS-346

Publisher & Managing Editor:
Ikram-ul-Majeed Sehgal

Chief Patron
Air Marshal (Retd)
Mohammad Asghar Khan

Patrons
Lt Gen (Retd) SF Lodi
Brig (Retd)TH Siddiqi
Lt Gen (Retd) Imtiaz Waraich

Board of Editorial Advisors
Ardeshir Cowasjee
Arif Nizami
Ms Maleeha Lodhi
Ms Nasim Zehra
Hameed Haroon
Humayun Gauhar
Ambassador (Retd) Afzal Mahmood
Brig (Retd) Saeed Ismat, SJ

Panel of Contributing Editors
Air Marshal (Retd) Ayaz A. Khan
Vice Adm (Retd) IF Quadir
Dr Shireen Mazari
Farhan Bokhari

Panel of Columnists
Col (Retd) EAS Bokhari
Col (Retd) Abdul Qayyum
Dr. Matiur Rahman
Ms Amina Jilani
Capt (Retd) A.A. Jilani

Executive Editor
Ms Ambreen Jahangir

Vice President Marketing
Syed Tauseef  Muhammad Ali

Advertising Manager
Naushad Alam

Internet Coordinator/Graphic Designer
Rizwan Alam Khan

Cover Design
Shujaat Ali

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Ms Parveen Akhter

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Tariq Jamal

PR/Advertising (Rawalpindi/Islamabad)
Brig (Retd) Asmat Beg Humayun

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Azizullah Goheer

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Dear Readers,

July 2000 was breathtaking, suddenly a new vista has opened on Kashmir with the Hizbul Mujhahideen offering a ceasefire as a backdrop to talks with India and India accepting the same, modalities to be worked out. Qazi Hussain Ahmed of Jamaat-i-Islami says it is a Pakistan Government Conspiracy, if so finally someone has learnt that sophistication and subtlety pays more than being an unguided missile. However, things are still at an early stage and we may yet see hopes for a lasting peace cast into some trash can. In the meantime we are still looking for ways to increase revenues and make Kalabagh Dam acceptable. We also need to do a scorecard on the military government for its first 300 days, almost 30% of the time they have been allotted by the Supreme Court is now over. Some successes, some failures but the intent is sincere and overall we are better off than we were on Oct 12. I wrote an article for THE NATION entitled  "D PLUS 300 which I am taking the liberty of re-producing:

Three Hundred days into Oct 12, 1999 what is the situation existing in Pakistan, has the military regime made a difference and if so, for better or worse in the light of Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf’s seven point agenda viz (1) accountability (2) economic stability (3) de-politicising state institutions (4) promoting inter-provincial harmony (5) law and order (6) devolution of power and (7) national morale.

Recurring hiccups in the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) Ordinance notwithstanding, accountability is on in earnest, people have been convicted for illegal activity, some have even returned part of the money looted by them. Bank defaulters have also started to reimburse their outstanding amounts. NAB has set a good precedent by being generally impartial except that ex-PM Mian Nawaz Sharif is being hounded with same vengeance Saifur Rehman pursued Ms Benazir Bhutto within a one-target agenda. Political vendetta is possibly a hereditary thing common to South Asia, Moghul Aurangzeb went so far as to blind his own father Emperor Shahjahan while incarcerating him for the rest of his life. In the presence of many viable cases the helicopter case was a non-starter in public perception, but then the objective was not to imprison him but to disqualify the ex-PM from political activity. Barring upset on appeal that particular technical aim has been achieved. One takes exception to the legitimising of dishonesty included in the amendments to NABO, if a person returns the illegal money acquired by him he is set fee. This is patently immoral as it strikes at the very foundations of civilisation, tomorrow dacoits can well file a constitutional petition quoting this NAB precedence making it obligatory for the government to free them if they return goods (or part thereof) stolen by them. Moreover, giving monetary incentives to paid NAB employees is an open invitation for corruption, rewards are only for those not paid out of government estimates. Barring the fact that some NAB employees and the local reps of contracted companies are not exactly kosher (Amjad probably believes in the adage, set a thief to catch a thief), the accountability process is a tremendous plus point for this government.

Financial apocalypse loomed ominously on Oct 12, strangely the previous regime had a Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde approach to the economy. The two Finance Ministers successively and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) led by former Governor (and NSC member) Mohammad Yaqub Khan did their best in awful circumstances but the May 28, 1999 freezing of foreign exchange accounts undercut all the good work done in re-surrecting the nationalised commercial banks (NCBs) and Development Finance Institutions (DFI)s. The inflow of dollars came almost to a dead stop, for some strange unearthly reason private moneychangers continue to function freely in a country where tourism is almost non-existent. Inflow even including unofficial means is slow, outflows exceed inflows though the haemorrhaging seems to have stopped. The documentation of the economy is a must and the government gets an A for determination and effort, it fails miserably in the modus operandi of tax surveys, the two should have been separated. Some financial sector appointments, including man of the moment Governor SBP, streetsmart Ishrat Hussain are positively brilliant, ones like MD PIA Sher Afghan Malik leaves one cold. The stink of cronyism smells to high heaven undercutting the credibility of merit that is certainly the intent of this regime. The budget is unrealistic if the CBR does not get a move on. With a scalpel to the CBR, the extra Rs 80 billion targeted will be a piece of cake. Along with honesty you need deliverability. When that one-window operation becomes one in actual fact and cuts out the thousand and one rules that Sheherezade of the Arabian Nights would have given her eye-teeth for, we will have investment mostly from our own expatriates. Revive the manufacturing sector certainly do not burden the Services Sector that is the only area of business presently capable of providing more and more jobs. It costs US $ 50000 to create a new job in this manufacturing sector, only US $ 500 (in Pakistan Rupees) to create one by the private security services. About 500000 residential and commercial units presently need guards, potentially a million more blue collar jobs and for every ten blue collar jobs at least one white collar one, but guess who gets taxed almost out of existence? And what about our agriculture sector which is the backbone of our economy and needs much more sustenance from the financial institutions than presently available? We have had a good wheat crop, let’s keep praying the weather holds for the cotton crop to come in. Our Finance Minister (FM) is hostage to the bureaucrats who are past masters at fudging figures, the last decade in particular. The military regime needs to mount a twin mission interactive assault to free the FM’s mind to do the job that was expected of him and set the economy free from its long-time kidnappers.

Merited appointment and promotions will go a long way to de-politicise the state institutions. Unfortunately merit is a disqualifier in Pakistan. Not to say that people with merit have not made it to the top but few and far between and mostly by chance. Unless we stop promoting undeserving (and undesirable) people for all the wrong reasons, we will never be able to escape the client - patron nature of appointments and promotion, a crony system that targets merit instead of eulogising it. Unfair promotion is not only at the cost of someone more deserving but efficiency and honesty (that are the hallmark of merit) are frustrated. The not so gullible public will never accept such persons who stand out as symbols that merit does not pay but negative qualities and attributes do.

The military regime is giving top priority to solving the water problem, without more reservoirs we are dead (and it will not be in the water). But how do we convince the smaller Provinces that Kalabagh Dam is not a Punjabi conspiracy to deprive tailenders Sindh of water and NWFP of land? We badly need Kalabagh but can we attempt it without irreparably damaging the unity of the country? Are these alternatives and if not, can we have an open TV debate among knowledgeable experts from all Provinces in language that the layman understands. Today Punjab is equated to Serbia, it may not be justified but facing upto reality and countering rabid nationalists in fact and perception both is a tall order. Bureaucracy’s attempt to create provincial harmony created Bangladesh, not out of intent but out of lack of expertise, sophistication and commitment that is inherent in the private sector.

Law and order situation is within limits at the present time but the portents for the future are alarming, both in the context of sectarianism and ethnicity. Focussing on police reforms as well as comprehensive citizens’ and alien registration, the regime must also take initiatives to exorcise the root causes of disorder, economic shortcomings and disparity leading to mass unemployment and frustration. To compound issues the law enforcement agencies are not properly equipped to handle the situation, the favourite pursuit of our intelligence agencies being to target individuals on personal vendettas out of a combination of parochialism, jealousy and misinformation. See how planted facts mixed with fiction are used to campaign against the critics of government. Is this the role and mandate of intelligence agencies? Law and order situation will never get better unless our covert agencies perform not only to their ability but to their mandate.

Devolution of power to the grassroots level is an important and sincere cornerstone of this regime. Barring one or two individuals lower down the hierarchy having business ambitions no one has any personal agenda. The important concept of a run-off election instead of first past the post is a vital ingredient for real majority rule in a democracy. Theory has not taken account of ground realities, a tribal society requires an Assembly to include more than two/ three tribes, castes, etc for homogeneity or we are in serious trouble on the Yugoslavia pattern. Moreover, the Province has to retain some control, alternatives are other (1) more Provinces and District Assemblies or (2) the same number of Provinces and Divisional Assemblies. Moreover, a linkage between administration at lower levels and representation in the Assemblies must be established by having the elected administrators be also the representatives in the Assemblies. We must not hasten into devolution on the pattern of District Assemblies suggested by NRB presently that is a sure recipe for disaster.

The last point on the CE’s agenda, national morale, is very much dependant upon the six already discussed. They will lead to good governance, that is the touchstone to the raising of the people’s morale. At the moment reality is way apart from expectation, only when they come together will this nation rise to the heights we aspire for.