Brinkmanship

Columnist M ZAFAR analyses the situation created by India which has further damaged our relations with them

The highjacking of Indian Airlines plane by Kashmiri freedom fighters on 24th December plunged the sub-continent yet again into a crisis. This highjacking will end soon enough with ephemeral victory for one side and a temporary loss of face for the other. It will, however, leave nearly permanent marks on the already much scarred political landscape of the region! The incident has taken place in the aftermath of two major events in Pakistan, the rancorous standoff at Kargil and replacement of the overstretched and impetuous regime of Mr. Nawaz Sharif by the military. Observers search for nexuses to draw outlines of the shape of things to come.

Islamic Salvation Front, one of the less well known of the numerous independent and autonomous freedom fighter's outfits has accepted responsibility for the action. It appears that this organisation has a fairly well spread and effective support network. The ease and finesse with which the hijack of IC 814 was executed by them is a testimony to their planning and expertise in the art. The tentativeness and immaturity in the conduct of negotiations with governments of the region betrayed their limited experience in the field. Of course, these facts also give rise to a number of misgivings about the origin and sponsorship of the whole episode. We will of course keep our judgement suspended till some more evidence is available.

But we do know that had it not been for the clumsiness of the Indian administrative system and shyness of its top bureaucrats to assume responsibility and take decisions, the hijack could have been terminated within hours of its commencement. Performance of political leadership was no better. Basking in their so-called 'Kargil victory' they forgot that in a war that has gone on for over half a century, Kargil was just one battle. Even in that clash India made it to the touchline by the skin of its teeth. Of course mistakes of the other side provided a lot of assistance. Now with the hostage crisis well into the seventh day the little credibility that their security services were beginning to be credited with in the wake of Kargil has come down to where it always belonged.

If wiser men were incharge in Delhi, Indian military good luck in Kargil would have been immediately reinforced with appropriate political initiatives in Kashmir. Since they failed, a reminder from the freedom fighters of the ongoing status of the struggle was but inevitable. At Kathmandu, Kashmiri freedom fighters successfully forced the world to focus once again on the misery of their land. Deliberately prolonged silence of major powers was an indication of a tilt howsoever small, in their attitude. Through this deafening silence India was hard put to explain its continuing failure in Kashmir and Pakistan to prove its innocence. Co-incidentally Taliban got a chance to demonstrate the quality of their statesmanship.

The deeper questions raised by the hijack of IC 814 relate to India's permanent plans for tranquillization of their borders smoldering at sensitive edges. Need they be reminded that that in the history of sub-continent whenever struggle between the power centre and the areas on its periphery has come to a tired stalemate, the situation has been historically resolved by introduction of power from outside, Central Asia in the context of medieval period. If the current pattern of conflict continues the inevitable must come to pass. The only factor that needs to be determined is that exact point of time when the tired stalemate will become a strategic reality. On the Pakistan side the strategic issue that calls for attention is that how far in terms of resources and time can the country go in the pursuit of difficult goals without putting its own existence in jeopardy?

Now look again at the hijack in the context of Kashmir's struggle for freedom and contemporary international attitudes. Russia is not likely to be supportive because of its own problems with Muslim minorities. United States has an obsession with so-called fundamentalist Islam, Mr. Osama bin Laden in particular at this point of time. China cannot support the hijack although it will continue to be Pakistan's backstop if and when the chips are down. European Union will conveniently forget its excitement over Kosovo and remain studiously neutral. Unity of Islamic world cannot be taken for granted either. Internal contradictions within the block foreclose united stand on many issues. Acutely aware observers are already saying that passions over the unity of Ummah may perhaps have already blown over. Witness the quiet of Libya, Iran and Iraq. Nearer home the Taliban may soon find reasons to exert themselves a little more aggressively. It is in their history. A small indication of things to come was available in the way they handled the highjackers - surrender or get out. Even if an Islamic coalition on the issue of Kashmir could conjure up, the diplomatic and military might of the block will have to be carefully calculated to determine the balance of power.

The disappointing aspect of the episode was the level of debate that ensued. Intellectuals and opinion makers on both sides got bogged down in the exercise of finding excuses and calling names to each other. Indians would descend to any depth to prove that the whole thing was a mischief of Pakistan's intelligence agencies. They would wilfully ignore the fact that Kashmir has been bleeding for the last fifty years and that the current phase has gone on for ten years and cost tens of thousands of lives. They would also not like to credit Kashmiris with the capability for making their own decisions in pursuit of their specific political goals. A typically aggressive commentator put Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nepal together as responsible for the hijack and did not for once mention the two actually involved parties - the Kashmiris and the Indians. Pakistanis on the other hand were unnecessarily excited and defensive over Indian vituperations. Pakistan cannot and indeed must not deny its ultimate concern and connection with the Kashmiri freedom struggle. What point were the rhetoricians trying to make by protesting too much?

At the end of the day observers were left with impressions of insecurity and irresponsibility on both sides. Unchecked such tendencies can lead to the destruction of the delicate balance that is keeping the peace in the region alive. Herein, lies the real danger. A slight miscalculation by either side can trigger off a nuclear holocaust in the sub-continent. This is a real possibility now. In the unipolar world of today it is a challenge that the United States and its President must face. This is also their greatest opportunity.