July 2000     Vol 3      No 12     Reg No.SS-346

Publisher & Managing Editor:
Ikram-ul-Majeed Sehgal

Chief Patron
Air Marshal (Retd)
Mohammad Asghar Khan

Patrons
Lt Gen (Retd) SF Lodi
Brig (Retd)TH Siddiqi
Lt Gen (Retd) Imtiaz Waraich

Board of Editorial Advisors
Ardeshir Cowasjee
Arif Nizami
Ms Maleeha Lodhi
Ms Nasim Zehra
Hameed Haroon
Humayun Gauhar
Ambassador (Retd) Afzal Mahmood
Brig (Retd) Saeed Ismat, SJ

Panel of Contributing Editors
Air Marshal (Retd) Ayaz A. Khan
Vice Adm (Retd) IF Quadir
Dr Shireen Mazari
Farhan Bokhari

Panel of Columnists
Col (Retd) EAS Bokhari
Col (Retd) Abdul Qayyum
Dr. Matiur Rahman
Ms Amina Jilani
Capt (Retd) A.A. Jilani

Executive Editor
Ms Ambreen Jahangir

Vice President Marketing
Syed Tauseef  Muhammad Ali

Advertising Manager
Naushad Alam

Internet Coordinator/Graphic Designer
Rizwan Alam Khan

Cover Design
Shujaat Ali

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Azizullah Goheer

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Dear Readers,

In the first week of July, THE NEWS, with the support of UNDP and CIDA, held a  SOUTH ASIA MEDIA SEMINAR for  "a free, fair and vibrant media" in the MARRIOT in Islamabad.  Print and electronic media persons in a good number from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal took part in the event. Bhutan and Maldives are far behind the others in development both of the print and electronic media, as such their absence was not felt. It was a pleasure to hear Indian media-persons such as Kuldip Nayar, Bhabani Sen Gupta, Prem Shanker Jha, Barkha Dutt, Seema Mustafa etc give their opinion freely and frankly.  Since very few eminent editors and columnists from the Pakistani print media took part, the opportunity for active inter-action on both the personal and professional planes was lost. One assumes that the Indians heard those of us who were present loud and clear, that Kashmir was the core to the solution as much as it is core to all the problems between India and Pakistan. One must note that the representation from Pakistan was not as broad-based as it should have been,  one would have been far more satisfied if the other big newspaper Groups had participated.  The 3-member Committee nominated for Pakistan for further development of the idea is thus not really representative of the majority of the print-media with all due respects.  Because it was organised by the private sector, the event was done efficiently and in a non-imposing manner.  Probably the only other criticism one can hurl at it is that there were too many speakers giving too long speeches,  most of them repetitive.  In their anxiousness to accommodate everybody, particularly the foreign delegates, an overwhelming number of whom were Indian, the organisers bent over backwards. 

Pervez Musharraf got his message across to the assembled Indian media-men in no uncertain language in a 90-minute "Question and Answer"  Concluding Session.  Both blunt and conciliatory,  he came across well.  Doubts that the Indians had about his having horns on his head must have been dispelled. My personal chemistry with Pervez Musharraf may be nothing to write home about but one must note objectively that from time to time he performs well when it is needed. Be that as it may, in the national context one can say that he did us, as a nation and the Army as an institution, proud. One remembers the "ping-pong diplomacy" that heralded Kissinger’s secret visit to China in July 1971 and opened up US-China relationship. By taking this private sector initiative, Mir Shakilur Rahman’s News/Jang Group may have started something. The normal overt dialogue between the Government (Track 1) is at a standstill.  The part overt - part covert dialogue between the two countries through government intermediaries, intellectuals, etc (Track 2) has also faltered, if not come to a complete stop.  Out of the blue and certainly not by design, but by the force of those who are the prime exponents of articulating public opinion, a third channel of communication, Track 3, has opened up to us.  What the India media-persons carry back to India will have broad mass public acceptance in the Indian population,  the Indian Government will be hard put to ward off dialogue.  In that sense, this new initiative, Track 3, takes on greater connotations than "ping-pong"  did for the US and China, may well take us down a roller-coaster ride to eventual peace in the region.  That road will be hard and difficult, who will take up the challenge? For the event I had written an article for THE NATION entitled "EMANCIPATING SOUTH ASIA - ECONOMICALLY AND POLITICALLY" which I am taking the liberty of re-producing.

Considered at one time to be the region of the most concentrated misery, on a pro-rata basis the world’s most industrious people come from South Asia, its entrepreneurs an optimistic bunch that tends to see more often than not an half empty glass as a glass half filled with water. With barely adequate education facilities, a very great percentage of doctors and engineers in the world come from South Asia. If 21% of all Microsoft’s engineers are Indians, at least 6% are Pakistani, making 27% from these two countries of South Asia alone. On the other end of the spectrum most cab drivers in New York are from South Asia, the oil-rich Middle East being mostly built on the strength of the sweat of South Asian labourers, mostly Pathans from Pakistan. India and Pakistan having mastered nuclear knowledge, one believes that Bangladesh could easily join the club. South India is well advanced in information technology, Bangalore becoming the second computer software city to Silicon valley. One can take an even bet that in two years Pakistan will play catch up, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka will not be far behind. The downside is that 35-40% of the population of South Asia is well below the poverty line. Adding the one billion plus population of India with the 130-140 million each of Pakistan and Bangladesh, with about another 40 million making up the rest of South Asia, percentage-wise a cool 500 million plus are thus living in sub-human conditions. Only about a 300 million (give or take 10 million) enjoy more than reasonable comfort, the lower middle class lives on a fail-safe line between poverty and comfort, prone to both human and natural disasters.

Two of the countries of South Asia possess nuclear arsenals and the means to deliver them, not as much as the US and Russia can deploy but enough to destroy each other many times over. This is compounded by an ineffective command and control system, a sure recipe for disaster given the uncontrolled emotions that govern the actions of even our responsible citizens. Two of the largest conventional armies of the world confront each other in a daily game of playing chicken, the flashpoint threshold is very low. Money that should be earmarked for education, health and socio-economic infrastructure facilities goes to replenish bombs and shells, an unproductive and senseless "investment".

Our road down to eventual apocalypse started with our greatest triumph, independence from the British in 1947. Millions of people got caught on the wrong side of the border, thousands and thousands were killed or maimed or simply lost, many faced untold hardships to reach their promised land. On both the sides the search for milk and honey has been futile. To compound the confusion, the visionary leaders of our independence movement were lost to us in the early throes of freedom. Our Quaid was cruelly felled by disease when we most needed him and Mahatma Gandhi was downed by Naturam Godse’s bullets. It does not inspire confidence that those who rule India today were in a sense Godse’s colleagues in their common hatred for Gandhi. What followed in the name of leadership in Pakistan after the assassination of Liaquat Ali Khan Shaheed was pathetic. India was far luckier. Even though Nehru was eventually found to have feet of clay, it was his daughter Indira Gandhi who set India back on the rails. Leaders can never work without good aides to assist them, unfortunately in both India and Pakistan men and women of only intermittent brilliance helped poor leaders in ruling the roost. Bangladesh alternated between martial laws and democracy, but now it seems that democracy, however defiled it may be by its present practitioners, has come to stay.

We must turn adversity in South Asia into prosperity, fully exploiting the potential of the people and resources of this region so as to benefit all the population. Can it be done? One feels it can be done, rather it needs to be done if we are to avoid economic and political apocalypse, what to talk of the nuclear Sword of Damocles that hangs over our head. South Asia is already an economic juggernaut but the India-Pakistan confrontation and because the economic resources are not coordinated, we do not have a place on the pedestal. The west is only eyeing this region with dollar signs in its eyes because of the vast potential to exploit for their manufactured goods. So why are we not exploring mutual economic opportunities, particularly when proximity gives us a distinct advantage in freight costs? If Pakistan’s farmers know that their surplus wheat will sell in India and Bangladesh, they will produce many millions of tons  more than the 500000 meant for export this year. In return Indian coal and iron ore is far more economically feasible for us than from Australia and other places. Why should we go outside South Asia for tea? And so on. As a vast market that gives a tremendous economy of scale for mass production, South Asia is bigger than what China is and look where China has gone from a standing start only two decades ago.

The core question is that of Kashmir, let us look at it as a South Asian problem. The Kashmir question will not go away, too much blood has been spilt for the issue to be simply washed away. India has to recognize that the Kashmiris have a legitimate right to have a choice, Pakistan has to also accept India’s need to safeguard the Hindu minority population. Why not then first settle those issues which are a fait accompli? Azad Kashmir and the Northern areas comprising Gilgit and Skardu are Muslim and part of Pakistan. Similarly Pakistan should accept Jammu and Ladakh as de facto parts of India. This leaves only the valley. Let us put the valley in limbo for the next decade with law and order to be supervised by lightly armed troops from South Asian countries i.e. Bangladesh (three Brigades), Sri Lanka (two Brigades) and Nepal (one Brigade) as South Asian Forces (SAF). Both Indian and Pakistani troops to move back from the Line of Control (LoC) into peacetime locations with free movement across the borders. Militancy in any form not to be tolerated, SAF having the right to cross borders in hot pursuit. People on both sides to be allowed to engage in commerce but without power to purchase real estate during the period of limbo. One may well ask, will this put the Kashmir situation in a better state than it was? Will not the state of uncertainty persist during the limbo period? And what happens when the "limbo" decade is over?

Atrocities on the population must stop and a semblance of peace brought to the region, before embarking on a series of economic and political confidence-building measures. The first measure would be to have a South Asian Bazaar (SAB) that removes all tariffs for inter-movement of goods and produce of South Asian origin within South Asia. The second is to have open cross border movement, with no requirement for visas for South Asian nationals (but with a restriction on employment) and the third is to have, in addition to our own respective currencies, a South Asian Rupee (SAR) on the pattern of the "Euro". Some people in Pakistan believe we will be swamped by Indian goods, at most they will get market of 130-140 million people, Pakistani entrepreneurs will get a market of a billion plus. On an economy of scale it will make our goods very competitive. A few years ago I was trying to explain to an Indian media person Ms. Tavlin Singh why economic measures will have to take a backseat to Kashmir but that massive economic initiatives would certainly follow a solution of Kashmir. She got a good laugh all around by saying, " what you are suggesting is that we should give you Kashmir and you will buy Bajaj Scooters?" Well laugh away, Ms. Singh, but remove the tears from Kashmiri eyes by giving Kashmir back to its people and they will buy Bajaj Scooters without any prompting from me or you.

What we need is serious intellectual inter-action, not snide remarks. South Asia has tremendous potential, our raw material resources are yet to be fully tapped. As a vast internal market, we have the economy of scale with a distinct freight advantage to become a colossal economic juggernaut. That should be the vision for the future, together to be an economic power to surpass what China has now become. Look at the problems, not as Indians or Pakistanis, or Bangladeshis or Sri Lankans, but as South Asians. I believe we can solve the Kashmir problem in the South Asian context.  If that should happen, for the people of South Asia the sky is the limit.