A new form of warfare

Columnist Lt Col (Retd) ZAMAN MALIK analyses the impact of the new form of warfare.

The writings of the past thinkers have left us the legacy of intellectual constructs which we regularly apply to the study of change and future war. Thus, to paraphrase Liddell Hart, “the tug of war” between science and history remains a dynamic element in contemporary thinking on future war. The concepts of paradigm and revolution, rooted in the past conceptualisations of history and progress reflect this tension. What exactly do we mean by paradigm shift, and how do we recognise one?

Physicist and historian Thomas Kuhn brought the expression “paradigm shift” into common usage in 1962 with the structure of scientific revolutions. He mentioned that every scientific development depicted a steady building process where each breakthrough to an established knowledge foundation necessitates a new conceptual framework. “Paradigms gain the status because they are more successful than their competitors in solving a few problems that a group of practitioners has come to recognise as acute”.

The future holds many eye-opening innovations, especially in technology. The future electronic combat is described as achieving ‘Spectrum Supremacy’ which will prove as critical as conventional battle field preparation and air supremacy operations of the past. The near term also holds the prospects of Cyberwar, robotic war and even neocortical warfare. Again, the underlying concepts are not altogether new. Most are consonant with J.F.C. Fuller’s 1919 prescription for attacking the nervous system of the enemy. The imperative to gain spectrum supremacy might lead to escalatory scenarios reminiscent of 1914 mobilisation theory or cold war nuclear logic. It is generally under the influence of this dual and somewhat irreconcilable-looking cross currents of ideas that the article has been developed enabling it to convey certain concrete picture of the emerging warfare landscape, as it concerns Pakistan today. Besides, as the world turns into a global village, the truth of Clausewitzian trinity, the constituent parts of which are, the army, the government and the people are becoming ever more relevant.

As complex military systems emerged, they created a whole new pattern of defeat, placing cybershock and manoeuvre and exhaustion. Clausewitz had said so long long ago and its becoming ever more relevant. Pakistan fears this prospect the most. Cybershock causes paralysis by attacking the enemy’s nervous system in the same way the manoeuvre causes exhaustion by defeating the opponent’s metabolic system - logistics.

Cybershock, therefore assumes greatest importance to be understood. It creates paralysis in five ways. First through the use of operations security (OP SEC), deception operations and psychological operations (PSY OP), the enemy is denied complete information of both his adversary and himself. Second, active and intense reconnaissance blinds the enemy and becomes the most critical element in the struggle for information. Third, the shock of surprise places a tremendous burden on enemy’s military nervous system as it creates a broad state of panic. Fourth, today’s electronic warfare (EW) destroys the organisational coherence and cohesion of the target, essentially inducing a kind of epileptic seizure in the opponent’s nervous system. Finally, the activeness and rapidity of friendly operations induce a kind of Cybernetic stupor in the enemy: his entire nervous system goes into over-load and general dissonance sets in. Because he does not know what to do. Nervous system as such is attacked with electronics instead of bullets. But defeat cannot be brought about through paralysis alone. All three pattern of warfare are complementary and mutually reinforcing. The synergism among them thus creates an integrated system of attack and defence designed to destroy a complex military system. Attrition, manoeuvre and cybershock together cause disintegration. If enemy asks for destruction before capitulation, his fate will be decided with cluster bombs/bullets.

A new strategy has been used with certain success by the US after applying it against the USSR in Afghanistan - this strategy of exhaustion is the strategy of economic strangulation of the target countries. This was straightaway used against Muslim countries of the Middle East as also elsewhere, using the pretext of globalization/of one World Order. US has also forced its own moral values in the target countries. The term terrorism was coined overnight and used as pretext against the non-conformists. G-8 group was goaded into following in the footsteps of US. Economic starvation after creating the debt trap is being applied at present against Pakistan on the pretext of aiding terrorism. Instead of pushing uno to decide who is doing what, the US is accepting India as prosecutor, Judge and Jury. This is terrible massacre of justice. How can Pakistan stop terrorism if it is coming from Afghanistan or if being indigenous it is coming out from within Kashmir itself? US created all the troubles for Pakistan from January 1980 to 1990. How can Pakistan, the worst victim itself, help eliminate this horrific creation of terrorism, of USA? Why does US not do it itself/through a resolution calls on the UN to decide what to do about ending it in Pakistan, Kashmir or India? Just because India with the natural endorsement of the newly opened office of the FBI in Delhi says so; its to be accepted to be the whole truth! Why has UNO been sidestepped? Someone should be there on ground to ascertain whether India is right or wrong. All that shows that the FBI office in Delhi has been opened to hoodwink the world in order to follow the US version as to who is right and who is wrong, exactly as predetermined by the US. Why do they not talk directly with Afghanistanis/Kashmiris? Who will the US be blaming for troubles in India across its length and breadth? Who will be held responsible for ‘terrorism in Chechenya? Pakistan being fed up with this creation of the US itself, is asking for help. The point is clear. US has resolved to choke Pakistan to shatter its nervous system through the means of economic sanctions because it does not unite with India against China. The declaration of terrorism against Pakistan is on the anvil. Our corrupt politicians will feel it a blessing from God, for themselves. But they will be denuded of all their possessions to face the economic crunch imposed by the US. They have made Pakistan the world’s most miserable beggar. Pakistanis sit with fingers crossed for that horrible declaration and will not fail to preserve their liberty and freedom; for India is our sole enemy: already it took away former East Pakistan and most of our territory in West Pakistan. India may, by all means follow the values of life even the ones in vogue in America, to prove champion of the New World Order. India is gradually following gay and lesbian marriages to prove that like America it too is a liberal country, though minorities are being crushed there but since US does not like India to be blamed, no one outside says a word even, about the killings and burnings of Christians and their places of worship. No; at no cost will Pakistan join India against China. This is why Pakistan is being victimised with harsh and violent economic sanctions. G-77 must get together in Islamabad and Pakistan must also approach, without wasting time, the UNO to come and see about the cover story of the terrorism against Pakistan, on ground. Emergency security council’s meeting must be demanded, by all the G-77/ South. This is used to cause the effects like those of the cybershock, by US.

While the term ‘Revolution in military affairs’ has been widely bandied about following the end of Cold War, in the USA, the conceptual and strategic atmosphere is anything but revolutionary, sticking to the cold war status quo in thinking about military options. US military and defence establishment has failed to move from Cold War to think creatively about new political and strategic realities it faces. Reading in between the lines, it can be discerned that the technological developments/ progress can be safely utilised by it/by its hired powers, if the use of force with it is kept within manageable conflict scenarios. This frame of mind is designed against all, other than Veto Powers, including India. New post cold war realities as unfolded by Clinton here in Pakistan, on 25 March 2000, look ridiculous in the light of Kuhan’s terminology, regarding paradigm shifts. Has the American paradigm undergone a paradigm shift indeed or its only an interpretation of the same as it suits its interests? The latter may be closer to the truth. Consider the continuities. NATO is still under US. The US still considers about a hospitable world to its free market economies and the democracies that imitate it without caring for their own values. “Exceptionalism” the once near universal faith in the uniqueness of our values - and their relevance around the world - gave way to intense divisions over the very validity of those values and length we should go to promote and defend them. And these schisms have had a profound impact on the conduct of US foreign policy ever since”. “By the end of the Johnson administration, frustration had set in the strategy that had worked in every previous American War - of wearing - down the adversary by attrition - could not succeed against guerillas defending no specific territory and who were, therefore, in a position to choose when and where to fight.” (Henry Kissenger 25 years after Vietnam war). If US was defeated in the manner it was, how can India or Pakistan fight guerillas/terrorists as being demanded by the US? Strange, US looks at old post-WW II paradigm down to the one resulting from Vietnam; in an unfamiliar way. US forces are gradually but surely being dragged away from Nixon’s Doctrine. But India must know that China is not Vietnam. It would not be merely a tragic end resulting in horrible US defeat; it would be an armageddon where none other than Zionism will reap the reward. Nothing has changed as far as US military might is concerned. In fact, with unprecedented technological ascendancy, it has prepared itself as though its going to conquer the entire universe in one sweep. Why did then the US president deliver the sermon to Pakistani nation about ‘the new realities’. If only US had practised what she preached, it had the time in its favour to create a good world but it proved too incompetent to utilise the rare historic opportunity.

By offering BJP the bait of the Veto Power Status it has only added to the intransigence of the UNO’s most criminal defaulter. By all probability, US wants the devastation take place away from her cities. Will that be possible? USA is associating with too many questionable regimes in Asia and Africa. Seeing the hurry of President Putin of Russia on a state visit to India next October, he is quite likely to make use of KGB as usual. Russia is headed for Afghanistan shortly. Curse to US wisdom, which did not consolidate Afghanistan before leaving it to rubbles and lawlessness. Russia is coming back. The people have seen the US concern for free Afghanistan, more than enough. China is also very close to Russia now compared with late 70s/early 80s. What will the net result be? Fast developments are taking place. Will we return to Cold War commitments? Who would save India from slavery, if both US and Russia join hands to tear off Pakistan? What will its consequences be for China?

A war is expected within three months between India and Pakistan, with all out help guaranteed to India. The smaller heights will be reduced before tackling the Mount Everest. Both countries have basic nuclear weapons with delivery systems and indeterminate command and control system. The nuclear war can be averted only with the involvement of UN Secretary General. The wise and tenacious Kofi Annan can sort it out. US has sprayed enough fuel on the flames. Its not like Vietnam. “New Form of Warfare” will finish India too. Indian intellectuals and academics must refrain Vajpayee. Time is fast running out!