May 2000     Vol 3      No 10     Reg No.SS-346

Publisher & Managing Editor:
Ikram-ul-Majeed Sehgal

Chief Patron
Air Marshal (Retd)
Mohammad Asghar Khan

Patrons
Lt Gen (Retd) SF Lodi
Brig (Retd)TH Siddiqi
Lt Gen (Retd) Imtiaz Waraich

Board of Editorial Advisors
Ardeshir Cowasjee
Arif Nizami
Ms Maleeha Lodhi
Ms Nasim Zehra
Hameed Haroon
Humayun Gauhar
Ambassador (Retd) Afzal Mahmood
Brig (Retd) Saeed Ismat, SJ

Panel of Contributing Editors
Air Marshal (Retd) Ayaz A. Khan
Vice Adm (Retd) IF Quadir
Dr Shireen Mazari
Farhan Bokhari

Panel of Columnists
Col (Retd) EAS Bokhari
Col (Retd) Abdul Qayyum
Dr. Matiur Rahman
Ms Amina Jilani
Capt (Retd) A.A. Jilani

Executive Editor
Ms Ambreen Jahangir

Vice President Marketing
Syed Tauseef  Muhammad Ali

Advertising Manager
Naushad Alam

Internet Coordinator/Graphic Designer
Rizwan Alam Khan

Cover Design
Shujaat Ali

Vice President (Circulation & Accounts)
Ms Parveen Akhter

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PR/Advertising (Rawalpindi/Islamabad)
Brig (Retd) Asmat Beg Humayun

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Azizullah Goheer

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Dear Readers,

As the weather warms up the borders are heating up too. Mostly because of the Indian rhetoric about Limited War, Pakistanis in general are convinced that the Indians are going to try some adventure across the LoC this summer. And if the LoC is breached, who knows where the events will escalate to? At the moment the Indians have an advantage over us with respect to media perception and diplomacy, would they risk this moral high ground in international eyes by seeming to be reckless enough to risk a nuclear holocaust? At the moment Pakistan is beset with a lot of problems, mainly pertaining to the economy and we do not need a war to contend with. Frankly much hope was placed in our economic managers, unfortunately they seem to have feet of clay, to be without substance. We need simple pragmatic solutions to our problems, not ideas steeped in rhetoric and IMF-inclined. I wrote an article for THE NATION called KEEPING IT SIMPLE, which I am taking the liberty of re-producing.

The history of Pakistan is replete with Commissions, Task Forces and Advisory Groups, very few have made any effective recommendations, only a fraction of these have ever been implemented. The intent of the military regime is sincere, they are being frustrated (as in the past) by the time-honoured bureaucratic method of filibustering. Such people never have the country’s best interest at heart, only their own and they know that if they can delay the process the honeymoon will soon be over. At best five miles to midnight as a country, we need pragmatic and simple solutions, not experiments that will exacerbate the situation.

The National Reconstruction Bureau’s (NRB) concept of devolution of power, giving total administrative control to District Governments is magnificent in theory, in practice it would be such an unmitigated disaster that in comparison  the Yugoslavia experience of disintegration would be a kindergarten primer. Most of Pakistan’s problems of bad governance and mal-administration can be laid at the door of over-centralisation. The Provinces have autonomy in name only, the Provinces are all run by the Federal Government. The right ideas notwithstanding, NRB has not war-gamed the consequences. Certainly there is a case for devolution, people should not have to run from far pillar to far post in seeking good governance. On the other hand, ethnic and sectarian problems have polarised present society, this divisiveness needs to be overcome. We should not play into the hands of separatists. Why not broaden the base for better management and control while giving genuine autonomy? From four Provinces we can make fourteen on the lines recommended in THE NATION on Nov 27, 1999, Making the Federation effective, with Karachi Port and Airport, Cantonments and ancillary areas, Port Qasim, etc as Federally-Administered areas. District governments under management of smaller provinces is a far better proposition. Law and order must remain a Provincial subject, the maximum decentralisation downwards should be to a  metropolitan city government. Giving law enforcement agencies under the control of a District Government is asking for trouble, a mob-type control negating the concept of democracy will exist in every district. It can and should be done but after a number of years, when the institutions have time to mature and become stable.

Ethnic groups or those along tribal and/or caste lines will have mafia-like control over the districts, making it a virtual hell for the minority groupings. What do you expect democrat Akbar Bugti to do in the Bugti area? The run-off election idea is absolutely brilliant but  we must maintain the concept throughout the electoral process, moreover no elected post should be indirectly voted for. Because of the slate pattern for Union Council, another super idea for ensuring full participation at the grassroots level, we do not need separate electorates or reserved seats for minority, they must be part of the mainstream. The recommendation of having 50% women at the lowest rung of government is excellent but it should be phased in over a number of years in the rural areas, in the present circumstances without building up the democratic culture and breaking down social/cultural mores, rural women will simply be puppets of the local feudal lord.

The finances of the country are controlled by the same individuals who gave wrong advice to earlier political governments, their advice being loaded with vested interest. They enact cosmetic changes as the ultimate formula for saving the economy, it is at best hogwash. Moeen Afzal, Javed Noel and party are nice enough persons their unswerving loyalty to different political governments over the years would put their honesty to embarrassment. Putting it bluntly, they are the problem, how can they find solutions? Their business is of a clubby, chummy connections of golf courses, lunches and dinners, etc where motivated SROs are enacted to override the national interest. Take the GST issue as an example, why should anyone not having a National Tax Number (NTN) or a GST Number be allowed to file  First Information Report (FIR) at any Police Station, officially they do not exist on the records.  In the presence of the NTN or GST number the quantum of loss should be relative to the declared wealth, or in the case of GST the turnover of stock as accounted for by the GST actually paid.

Instead of creating a major political disturbance by the direct action of closing down Baras, why not follow an indirect strategy for forcing their closure by reducing import duties/sales taxes on electronic goods like TV, VCR, Refrigerators, washing machines etc, to 10% flat, with no duties at all for components? With our labour five times cheaper than Jebel Ali, where do you think the manufacturers will go? More than India it is Pakistan that has made Dubai (and not counting the sweat of our Pakistani labour) because of our stupid tariff policies. At least 75% of the electronic goods that transit Dubai pass into or through Pakistan, the vested interest of those in the electronic traders and their bureaucratic collaborators keeps the tax rates high, making smuggling lucrative. Nothing complicated about the motivation of our CBR and customs officials, the only surprising thing is the lack of action by our monitors. In the past military regimes have failed simply because no uniformed watchdog (or tough surrogate) was ever placed in the Finance and Commerce Ministries on a day-to-day basis. These needed the Army Monitors first.

The moron-ish policy of allowing money changers to exist must cease, in the presence of banks doing the same job, it is stupid. Our meagre foreign exchange reserves have been put at risk by officially allowing money speculation. This is the HUNDI-mafia at work. The Finance Minister and the Governor State Bank of Pakistan must not become hostage to these special and/or vested interests, they must close down money changers immediately as a means to consolidating Pakistan’s foreign exchange liquidity. The means to emulate HUNDI operators exist, if Pakistan comes first before any other interest. Simply  puppets in the hands of their bureaucratic handlers, these imported technocrats are at best socially acceptable faces to display to the IMF and the World Bank that Pakistan is kosher. They seem to have no time to spare from giving crowd pleasing lectures at seminars, Rotary Clubs, etc gatherings on everything under the sun, the ongoing economic crisis notwithstanding. And look at the Economic Advisory Board,  Mr Moinuddin Khan our ex-CBR Chairman had labelled at least a couple as being major tax evaders.  Making a lot of money illegally and putting it in private banking seems to give the stamp of legality to people. And these are the people going to broaden the tax base? And they are going to increase the revenues? And they are going to bring economic emancipation to the masses? Let these miracle men produce miracles or stop wasting the country’s precious time and resources. One sometimes disagrees with the WAPDA Chairman, Lt Gen Zulfiqar Ali Khan, at  least he is an honest man. On HUBCO he is dead right and more power to him! Look up Bechtel employees, Kappas and Menendez, (K & M Engineering) and equate them with their ex-World Bank employer Ebrahim Elawan (and his Singaporean partner Brian Cheng) who made them the prime consultant for HUBCO, one will not have to venture far about who has looted Pakistan. Why is Zulfiqar  being railroaded  to make a deal, to satisfy Xenel at the expense of Pakistan?  Only then can one understand the amazing rise in capital cost and the reason for sweetheart amendments. As far back as 21 Aug 90, I wrote in THE NATION on PRIVATELY ENERGISING THE POWER SECTOR,  to quote The Eiffel Tower may be about to be sold to Pakistan, this time not by Henry Wilson. One should not look at gift horses in the mouth but one should always beware of a Greek bearing gifts, Unquote. And do we need to heed threats about foreign investments running scared?  India negotiated ENRON’s tariff down substantially when they suspected malfeasance, the investment still keeps flowing in despite all the dire warnings.

In searching for technocrats for active national service, the military regime does usually take a hard look at past loyalties, but they need also look to motivations and hidden agendas as well. Come the future these same people will be engaging in social pleasantries with those who succeed you elected or otherwise, while bad-mouthing you for no reason at all except to prove to their new found friends how more loyal they are. In the hands of bureaucratic wiles and expatriate motivations, the military regime is naive, as any men in uniform anywhere would (and should be) in matters of State finance and commerce. However, the thing to remember is not to  exacerbate the problems by experimenting with complicated solutions being proposed by vested and motivated interest, we must keep the solutions simple. Or we will end up looking not only stupid but economically dead!