Face of New Chinese Diplomacy

Columnist M. ZAFAR analyses the emerging CHINESE diplomacy in the present geo-political environment.

Demise of Soviet Union in 1990 created an imbalance in the equation of power in South Asia. Both China and India aspire to fill the vacated space and have ever since been making tentative moves in that direction.

World’s only super power, the United States, however, had her own plans. In the coming century the United States intends to rule the waves a la Britannia of yore, as trade not military is to be the principal means of domination. President Clinton said that much during his visit to the sub-continent. In the Pacific the United States in concert with Japan, South Korea and other Asian countries aims to confine China to its shores. In the Indian Ocean the United States hopes to build a grand alliance preferably with and if need be, without India. Further debilitation of Indonesia, marginalisation of Malaysia and Pakistan and lastly prevention of Russia from reasserting in the Middle East are part of the grand strategy. Such an order leaves no space for China and India who being heirs to a proud past are dreaming of roles far beyond their shores. Their discomfort with American plans is understandable.

China and India cannot embrace such a scheme of things nor can they indeed reject it outright. China would wish to assert itself in the Pacific without being hamstrung by a powerful India along its southernborders. Similarly India would welcome the role of a regional monitor if the West were to pay for its efforts. Her problems in Kashmir and Assam militate against an all out support from the West. At present India lacks that certain volume of security, freedom of action and space for manoeuvre which is essential for a regional appearance.

Ironically enough, it is Pakistan that provides that space and security to both China and India, which they both crave. China wisely acquired a good measure of it by being friendly to Pakistan. India foolishly insists to browbeat its neighbour into submission and has met with nothing but frustration. A detente with Pakistan at this point in time is a necessity for India so that it can free herself of the local bind and pursue regional and global goals. Failing it can be assured of remaining tied in the shallows forever.

The Chinese understand another strategic truth. The point where continental interests of America and Asia collide is exactly the point where Sino-Indian interests coincide. Beyond that point the two nations will cooperate without reservation but upto that spot the route is torturous. Chinese diplomatic efforts in the subcontinent are therefore two pronged: one aimed at the pursuit of ultimate geo-strategic objectives in the company of India, the second effort is tactical and devoted to widening the windows of cooperation with India. The centrality of Pakistan’s nexus is catered for and nothing is spared in the reaffirmation of the strength and ‘eternity’ of Sino-Pakistan relations.

This time around Mr. Tang Jiaxuan visited Delhi and Islamabad before going to Bangkok for ASEAN Regional Forum conference. In New Delhi Mr.Tang Jiaxuan skilfully hedged the thorny question of alleged Chinese assistance to Pakistan’s missile programme. He said that reports of such collaboration originated in the western press and were not reliable. Importantly he was able to get Indian agreement on going ahead with resolution of border problem in the least contentious central sector straddling the Indian states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

In Pakistan Mr. Tang was particular in stressing that rapprochement between China and India was not to affect their all-weather relations with Pakistan. In fact improved India-China relations would be more conducive to better Sino-Pakistan relations. Chinese logic — but how does one argue against it? Then how much one wants to read into Mr.Tang remarks that Sino-Indian relations were between India and China and Sino-Pakistan relations were between Pakistan and China depends on ones training in semantics. But the two remarks do signal a shift. Also note that Mr.Tang did not fail to bring up China’s concern over outside support for ethnic Muslim militants in the Xinjiang Province. This is a relatively new but painful factor in Pakistan’s relations with China.

Also it is yet another area where Indo-Chinese views are similar. Pakistan’s diplomacy has to come out of the cold and read the situation realistically. Someone in Islamabad should be searching for alternates. Our advice - try looking in northwesterly direction where Asia and Europe meet. There may be some possibilities.