Why the Feverish Haste Around?

Columnist Lt Col (Retd) ZAMAN MALIK discusses the haste to acquire an effective defence against possible nuclear attack.

Why the threat of a missile attack is greater today than it was during the cold war? A major nuclear exchange could wipeout Civilisation. Small tactical Nukes would lead to escalation; hence the acceptance of Massive Assured Destruction (MAD). President Bill Clinton decided to go for NMD costing America 60 billion dollars. Unlike Gore, who favours the most ineffective, constrained anti-Missile System, the sole purpose of the system, Mr. Bush says, is to be the protection of the American Public and US allies and Forces overseas; which is not new. President Vladmir Putin of Russia and President Jiangzemin of China, the other day, signed in Beijing, an agreement to respond, if US decided to go ahead despite the failure of an experiment by US.

The "Deception" adopted by the rogue states that their "Cold War" has ended and the era of Globalisation has begun, has slapped itself in the face. They seem to be gripped by a terrible stroke of nervousness. A week, now a days, seems to be a long time vis-a-vis the mushroom developments, to determine what and why it all is happening and what ought to be done about it. Think tanks, diplomats, politicians, academics and media need to be constantly on movement, amidst the continuing triumphant and ironical smiles, changing sides, in quick successions. "Politics is movement per se a politician should be mobile. He should sway now to right, now to left; he should come out with contradictions, doubts. He should change continually, test things, attack from every side so as to single out his opponent's weak point and attack at it. Woe if he blocks the manoeuvre by which to throw his opponent on the carpet, woe to him if he focuses immediately on his basic concept, woe if he reveals and crystallizes it. Apparent inconsistency is the prime virtue of the intelligent man and an astute politician ... If someone invades Marseilles, don't you conclude that France has been attacked? ... I am not raising any banners for International Crusades. I am not sticking my nose in the affairs of others. I concentrate on reality of my country and that's all... Politics is give-and-take...Well, in politics you sometime have to pretend to be stupid and make others believe they're the only intelligent ones... But to do this you have to have light and flexible figures, and have you ever seen a bird sitting on its eggs in the nest? Well, a politician must have fairly light, fairly flexible fingers, to insinuate them under the bird and take away the eggs, one by one". (Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, in "Interview with History", by Oriona Fallaci).

With one exception, Pakistan's foreign policy has been guided by a simple motive ‘to preserve its national integrity', The only exception occurred during the mid-1970s when Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, attempted with some success to play a prominent role in Third World and North-South politics. At that time, the Pakistan leadership, by moving into the front rank; above regional politics — even above Muslim politics, of Middle East and non-aligned movement, sought to lift the country, leaving India behind, when the Triumphant Indira Gandhi (the conqueror of East Pakistan), was still the Prime Minister in continuation of her term as PM. Pakistan is still capable of doing so by extraordinarily becoming honest and hardworking country of the nation that it once was! The stinking head of the fish is the cause of the cancer. So, with this one exception, Pakistan has conducted its foreign affairs in such a way as to neutralise what its leaders regard as the threat to its territorial integrity posed by its several neighbours. Why? I might be exonerated for the diversion, if the splendid example of contemporary political wisdom and the achievements thereof, proves, in some way, of some use, to someone! A rabit from out of the hat was never taken out, for a success.

During what they call "Cold War", US deployed NIKE HERCULES as safeguard which could destroy incoming warhead, while remaining immune. Soviets deployed interceptors with small nuclear warheads. However, both sides realised that any defensive system would still have "Leakage". The result was that the probability of total destruction of our planet increased to 100 percent. So, work on defensive systems continued.

Clinton-Gore administration's principal contribution negotiated with Russia, in 1997 and concluded START II treaty requirement that Russia will eliminate its land based multiple warhead missiles launchers by 2003. There is still considerable time required for completion, after which, given the criticality of the matter, need be, the period could possibly be extended. What was the hurry for going against the treaty? It seems, confidence has been ruptured completely. Anyway, the monkey finds it hapless now. Either it has to open the fist to release the sweets in the narrow-necked pot or break the pot itself, for the purpose. Mankind seems to have been pushed far too forward to retrieve the situation. There can't be two ways about it.

But why the haste? Has the threat, paradoxically, increased during their much publicised "Cold War Era"? Is it because US presumes that Russian Arsenal has become less secure as "renegade" group has become capable of it? Is it because Russia's poor economy has exposed it to surreptitiousness, more than the level of 1997? Is it because of North Korea posing threat to US/its allies? Is it because of the perilous situation obtaining in the Indo-Pak subcontinent or sub-Sahara Africa? Has the terrorism suddenly started to overflow the intolerable limits envisioned since 1997 or this treaty also was destined to be assigned to its ultimate and eternal station, after sometime, in any case? Was all that a drama staged to gain time for an opportune moment or there never was anything like drama, everything was always a reality, in any case, and every reality was to change as a part of a natural evolutionary process, whatever the field of life? Nothing ever was static except the national interest. Or, finally, US has, with the help of Indo-Israel nexus now fully matured; is poised to do what it finally wanted to, in the case of PRC? 

Obviously, Iraqi card is reaching its end. Iran is up with the technological help provided to it by Russia and India both. That's why, Iran asks for Secular and Hindu state of India, to be included, in the OIC ! If population were to be the criteria, then of course India should be made permanent president of the OIC - possibly, Iran might like to consider that as well, and we shall all be standing behind A.B. Vajpayee in the KHANAKAHBA, for the performance of our Hajj! Why don't the Muslims refrain to use religion for political ends? Besides, why all that feverish haste is going on around? Wasn't it a "Cold War" period?

The point is what should Pakistan do weighing all pros and cons? Does it have the capacity or potential to do something to restrain the rogues to see reasons? Can Pakistan suddenly emerge to be what it was in the mid-seventies? Can Pakistan offer to build the destroyed bridges that it had made between China and America, in 1970/71? Do the concerned sides have the needed aptitude for that today, as well? Can possibly, a rabit be taken out of the hat, to save the civilisation, much less for saving Pakistan, in the first and foremost instance? Nothing of the sort! Let us work hard and harder, intelligently and with determinations and discipline selflessly and without any iota of corruption; we shall face all this very well, for ourselves and for our children.