Roping Pakistan into an Arms Race

Contributing Editor Air Marshal (Retd) AYAZ AHMED KHAN analyses rising defence expenditures.

With forty two percent defence budget hike in two years India has big plans to add 300 T-90 main battle tanks, 190 Su-30-K nuclear strike aircraft, two aircraft carriers including Russian gifted Gerchko, nuclear submarines, more nuclear armed Prithvi II’s and Agni II and III IRBM’s, to its already inflated armament inventory. With orders for French Mirage 2000 fighters, British Hawk fighter trainers, Russian made AWACs, and major force additions including 209 para-military battalions for Kashmir operations, India is becoming a menace to peace and seccurity in South Asia. This unending weapon buildup will surely disrupt peace and military balance in South Asia. It implies plans to intimidate it’s smaller neighbours, especially Pakistan. Overwhelming force is already being used to keep the Kashmiri’s eternally shackled. Deployment of half a million regular troops in Kashmir poses a very serious threat to Pakistan’s national security. And now Pakistan is gravely threatened by Indian nuclear, missile and conventional buildup and by Indian inimical attitude towards this country.

Pakistan cannot ignore massive supplies of Russian weapons and technology to India, and US assistance for major defence projects like the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) programme, high tech computer and information technology industry, and Indian nuclear programme. Both Russia and the US have a hand in stoking the weapons race in South Asia. Pakistan cannot take chances with its securrity and sovereignty. The government has taken due note of increase in Indian defence budgets and weapon procurement programmes. Pakistan cannot allow this unabated offensive buildup to loom as a dark shadow over the the country. Neither can it allow continued Indian occupation of Kashmir, and give a free hand to India to trample under foot the life and honour of Kashmiri men, women and children. President Mohammad Rafique Tarrar in his Pakistan Day Parade speech reiterated Pakistani resolve to help the Kashmiri’s to attain self determination, ie, freedom from Indian yoke. The core issue of Kashmir thus is the main cause for the nuclear and conventional arms race between India and Pakistan. Indian resolve to solidify its military occupation of Jammu and Kashmir, be a hegemon in the region is being stoked by the West in general and the US and Russia in particular. Pakistan’s regardless of its weak economy has taken on the challenge. The 23 March 2001 Pakistan Day Parade provided enough evidence that Pakistan is not ignoring the possible eventualities arising as a result of military and armaments buildup across the border.

The nuclear weapon race was triggered by the five Indian nuclear blasts at Pokharan in mid May 1998. Within two weeks Pakistan responded to Indian provocation by carrying out six nuclear tests at Chagai in Balochistan. In the missile race that followed Pakistan seems to have an edge. Pakistani scientists in a short span of two years have developed a whole range of guided weapons to challenge Indian weapons of mass destruction. At the 23rd March Parade Shaheen- I (Hatf IV), Ghauri (Hatf V), and intermediate range Shaheen II (Hatf VI) were displayed. These launcher mounted SSM systems are highly mobile, and could be deployed anywhere. Exhibiting the untested nuclear armed 2500 Km Shaheen II built by Dr Summar Mubarakmand had a message for the evil wishers. With both the countries engaged in enlarging their nuclear and ballistic missile armouries, the future of South Asia is becoming darker. India started the missile and nuclear mischief in South Asia, and Pakistan followed suit very quickly. This suicidal race must stop, if the over one billion helpless South Asians are to survive.

The March 23, 2001 Pakistan Day Parade gave all needed evidence that Pakistan is not too far behind India in the conventional arms race. Pakistan’s self reliance programmes have made tremendous headway in recent years. At the Ideas 2000 Arms for Peace exhibition held in Karachi recently it was disclosed that prototype test programme of Khalid MBT will end on June 15, 2001. Thereafter, series production of Khalid MBT will start. Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT) will produce fifty Khalid main battle tanks every year. This is a big achievement. It is a great success story considering that Arjun the Indian main battle tank has been under development for twenty five years, and series production is no where in sight. India is spending billions to procure three hundered T-90 tanks from Russia. Pakistani Khalid will be equal if not superior to the Russian T-90 that India is acquiring. Depending on funding HIT would manufacture three hundered state of the art Khalid MBT’s in the coming years. But therre is a price tag to it.

The Pakistan Day Parade this year was led by MBT Zarrar. Zarrar is a updated T-59 MBT with a better engine and Pak made 125 mm gun. It has latest accessories and has been greatly admired by armour experts from many countires. Hundereds of MBT Zarrar will be rebuilt-manufactured for the Pakistan Army and other intersted armies in Africa and Asia. Pakistan has already received over 300 much praised Ukranian T-80 UD main battle tanks. Chinese T-85 MBT’s with 125 mm guns are also being manufactured at HIT Taxila, and have been supplied in quantity to Pakistan Army. Pakistan thus seems to have an edge over India in the race for main battle tanks. But this is an expensive race, and Pakistani economy cannot sustain it. Soviet economy collapsed when it was the biggest arms manufacturer and supplier in he world. This should be a lesson for Pakistani planners.

The 23 March 2001 Pakistan Day Parade was most impressive. The PAF fly past and air display reflected high professional competence of country’s air arm. With the induction of new fighters like F-7 MP and Super-7, latest radars, beyond visual range weapons, and avionics fitted on Mirages and F-7’s, PAF will soon become an impregnable force. Because of the Augusta submarines and new technology weapon systems Pakistan Navy morale is sky high. The Army has trained hard in all spheres of war making, Pakisan now has high technology armed forces. Armour, mechanized infantry, Artillery, Signals, and Engineers of the Army are equipped with home made tanks, APC’s, Baktar Shikan anti tank missiles, medium and long range artillery guns, SAM’s, ANZA I and ANZA II shoulder fired missiles. Field air defence radars, radar controlled Ack Ack, satellite controlled anti-jamming signal equipment, Pak made bridging equipment multi-barrel rocket launchers, gun ship helicopters, and with the well tained and highly motivated soldier, sailor and airman the armed forces of Pakistan today are in good shape. And this has happened inspite of cut in he defence budget. But the production of missiles, aircraft, submarines, armour and allied defence equipment to ensure reasonable balance with the ever growing Indian military might is not possible without large scale funding. And that Pakistan cannot afford. India has triggered a dangerous and wasteful armament race in South Asia. Indian motive could be to bring about Pakistan’s economic collapse by roping it into a race for weapons. Though Pakistan’s military build up basically is to check mate growing Indian military preponderance, but it is being caught in a trap from which it may not be able to extricate itself. With 42 billion dollar reserves, India has the funds for reckless military spending. With one billion dollars in the kitty Pakistan is gasping for breath. Pakistani rulers and planners will be well advised to avoid the arms race that India is roping them into. Putting the economy on track should be their first priority.