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Dear Readers,
Ground Zero for India and Pakistan
was Agra on July 15 and 16, 2001. A scant half-a-mile from the
beautiful Taj Mahal, the media waited not with bated breath but with
runaway speculation at the Mughal Sheraton, only a few hundred yards
away from the conference site where President Pervez Musharraf and
Prime Minister Vajpayee had as much as five hours plus of talks one on
one. Without any formal declaration, the Agra Summit can be said to
have been inconclusive. In reality it was a major success, at least
the two countries were talking to each other again. While a solution
to the multiple problems that bedevil us is still far in the future,
the process has started at least. Agra was a Pervez Musharraf success
story, he won the media war hands down. He was ably supported by a
galaxy of media personalities from Pakistan, for once Pakistan came
away from an important event with the sweet smell of success. The
success can be laid to the military regime’s free media policy. It
seems India badly miscalculated that the Pakistan media would badmouth
an unelected President of a military regime, by the time they realized
they were mistaken and attempted some damage control, Pakistan media
was ruling the Indian airwaves. One must commend the freedom and
sophistication of the Indian electronic media, their potential is
nothing short of tremendous. Their freedom was used to maximum effect
by Pakistani media-persons. Please do read my article published in THE
NATION entitled “UNDERSTANDING EACH OTHER” which appears
subsequently. As the subject of our cover story, “Remembering Our
Warriors”, I am privileged to cover my friend, Maj Gen HUK Niazi, SJ
with whom I served with in Army Aviation. I have used my privilege to
write a detailed personal note.
At Agra Pakistan and India seemed
very close to an agreement, post-Summit statements make it quite clear
that both sides were in fact far apart in their respective perceptions
about what the agreement amounted to. Pakistan held out that their
long-standing stand on Kashmir being a core issue was about to be
formally recognized, India felt that its main concern, “cross-border
terrorism” was going to be addressed by Pakistan and this would
drastically curtail the freedom struggle within Kashmir. Such
different interpretations post-Summit would have made any Declaration
a non-starter, the various clauses could have been used as enough
pretext by extremists on either side to destroy whatever understanding
was developing among the leaders and intelligentsia of both the
countries, seriously retarding the peace process. Both Musharraf and
Vajpayee are very conscious of hard-liners in their constituencies,
that is why they avoided eroding each other’s domestic standing by
giving these hard-liners due cause. When two people meet to solve a
problem, the sensitivity each displays for the other’s problems
despite disagreeing with each other goes a long way in creating the
right atmosphere for eventual solution. The good chemistry between
Musharraf and Vajpayee was the main success of Agra, that it did not
result in an “instant Declaration” may be temporarily
disappointing, in the cold light of reality one can understand it has
created the foundation that will eventually lead to lasting solutions.
Kashmir as a conceptual issue does
threaten India’s secular ideology. Most Indians are right when they
say that any solution of Kashmir issue on the basis of religion would
be used as a precedent by India’s many other disparate minorities,
both in religions and races, to demand their independence on the same
premise. At the moment India faces a number of armed insurrections
other than the revolt inside Indian Held Kashmir, particularly in the
East viz (1) Mizoram (2) Manipur (3) Nagaland (4) Assam (5) Bodoland,
etc. What worries India is not only the religious and racial issues
but also the language divide, not so much with the East as it is with
the South. And the South is quite vehement about speaking their local
languages as opposed to Hindi. The economic divide is also widening
quite alarmingly, the South is far more affluent than the North, with
the exception of Indian Punjab. With the exception of Haryana to an
extent, the great Hindu heartland of UP, Behar, Maharashtra, Gujarat,
Rajasthan, etc is well below the poverty line. This becomes very
apparent not only in New Delhi but along the road from Delhi to Agra
even though one believes that in Haryana and Indian Punjab one comes
away with a definite perception of affluence. In contrast the highways
and agriculture fields of Pakistan exude far more affluence throughout
the country. While religious and racial divide may be bad enough,
economic disparity is the source of most conflict in history and the
portents are not good.
That is not to say that everything
is hunky-dory in Pakistan. The most visible symbol of dispute between
the various Provinces has been the Kalabagh Dam, shelved for the time
being. Water has been an age-old problem to fight over, as the
requirement increases and the quantity available decreases, the
situation has become acute. Indian analysts were almost unanimous in
their premise that what holds Sindh, Balochistan, Punjab together is
Kashmir. While this is a very wrong perception the fact remains that
the Provinces have problems with each other, mainly about water and
revenue sharing. This is not unlike the problem in India between at
least 3 States because of the Cauvery Dam and the sharing of water
thereof. Moreover as the income level of the southerners in India
become higher, mainly because of the IT boom, per capita they will pay
for more taxes than their northern and eastern brethren. India is
better equipped to handle this economic divide because the States
exercise far more authority as envisaged in their Federal structure.
This was not so for many years when Congress used to rule almost
everywhere. The emergence of strong regional parties has ensured that
the national parties such as Congress and BJP cannot form a majority
government anywhere on their own. But exercising of their due mandate
by regional parties within the sanctity of the Constitution does not
spell secession by any means. To their credit, the military regime has
addressed this issue because of the devolution of powers down to the
District level in Pakistan, the local authorities will have far more
control over their lives in Pakistan. District Governments should have
come eventually but only after Divisional Governments or the creation
of more Provinces but in the circumstances there is no argument about
giving power back to the people. What is a democratic system without
grassroots rule? Most of Pakistan’s problems stem from
over-centralization of everything in Islamabad, to survive as a
Federal entity we have no other alternative but to divide power. The
only weak link in the Devolution Plan is the possible ascendancy of
the feudal lord to almost absolute monarchy status in some rural areas
of the country, particularly Balochistan. Instead of going step by
step the military regime decided to go the full distance in one giant
leap, only time will tell if this was “a bridge too far”.
Given that both the countries need
to get their economics and political houses in order, it may be good
for eventual rapprochement to learn from each other’s experience in
dealing with such problems. As much as India does not want to treat
relations with Pakistan as an Hindu-Muslim problem, the Kashmir
problem is ground zero of a conflict that goes back more than a 1000
years. The Muslims of Kashmir are a majority and do not want to live
under Hindu minority rule. To give them their due, most Indians
sincerely believe that there is no Hindu-Muslim problem but a
India-Pakistan problem. If so why don’t they give vocal support to
Hasina Wajid’s Awami League in Bangladesh and see what happens to
her in the coming elections in Bangladesh? It is no use putting our
heads in the ground and ignoring reality. We must recognize that the
solution lies in genuine Hindu-Muslim rapprochement, not an alliance
against anyone but rather than alliance to overcome mutual suspicions
and apprehensions. Over the past few weeks the traffic of E Mail from
Hindu academics and intellectuals has increased from all over the
world (in contrast to Muslims abroad they seem to read THE NATION
more) who may not agree with my views but except for the odd madman
full of abuse and hate they are mostly reasonable in their logic and
explanation, we have a civilized debate with each other. One must also
add that there is a also a growing and genuine feeling of mutual
respect and understanding.
That is what Agra accomplished,
the need for continued dialogue to resolve issues, while the Kashmir
dispute needs to be resolved and “confidence building measures”
will help, what is needed is more and more dialogue, not only between
leaders and intellectuals but across the broad cross-section of the
great normally-silent majority. The people of Kashmir need relief. We
in Pakistan need to convince our Indian friends that in leaning
backwards over Kashmir they may be tactically disadvantaged
temporarily but in the strategic sense they would have laid the base
in the long term for one South Asia. For all those who are privileged
to comment and debate on the situation availing today in whatever
capacity, even those like us who only live on the fringes of history,
it is incumbent to drive home one salient point, South Asia is the
most contiguous economic unit in the world. All the countries have
complementary economies, and it is only with economic togetherness
that we will alleviate the sufferings of our impoverished masses.
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