Pakistan and the Afghan Reconstruction

Columnist SULTAN AHMED looks to the future of our virtually destroyed neighbour.

As the war ends in Afghanistan the country battered by 20 years of intermittent fighting, and finally the heavily destructive bombardment by US squadrons, calls for rapid recovery and sustained reconstruction.

Paul O Neil, US Secretary of the Treasury, told a conference on reconstruction of Afghanistan in Washington on November 20 that Afghanistan should not after this process return to where it was many years ago but be far better, and the international coalition should lay the foundations of a market economy, democratic institutions and a stable, civilized society.

Such efforts may take six to ten years or even longer, and its speed may depend on the political conditions in Afghanistan and the extent of cooperation forthcoming from the people of Afghanistan for such radical changes in a heavily traditional society.

Post-war efforts in Afghanistan have to take the shape of relief to the stricken people, inside and outside the country, rehabilitation of unsettled and reconstruction of the country. And the three processes need not follow one after another, and can run concurrently to the extent possible or wherever possible.

The US and its allies are eager to achieve these objectives as quickly as possible. They hold speed in this area essential to impress the incredulous people of Afghanistan that they want to really help them, and toppling the Taliban regime is not their single objective or getting hold of Osama bin Laden.

That is why President Bush, Secretary of State Colin Powell and other American leaders have been stressing they will not quit Afghanistan soon after the fall of the Taliban but stay around in a long-term partnership for the rebuilding of their country and until the reconstruction is complete.

The conference on reconstruction at the US State Department was sponsored by the US and Japan, and the second session would be held in January by which time the broad-based interim government with representatives of all ethnic groups might have assumed office in Kabul. Full cooperation of the new government in such rehabilitation and reconstruction programmes is essential to make a success of that costly venture. Along with that, a multilateral military force might have also taken up its positions to maintain order in the country and prevent settling of scores.

Political stability is essential for the success of any large scale reconstruction. Without that the requisite large funds may not be forthcoming from the donors. The donors must feel assured the funds are being utilized for the purpose for which they were demanded of them by the UN or other agencies designated for the task.

And the earlier the political rehabilitation comes the quicker will the economic reconstruction and the larger the volume of aid forthcoming.

The immediate task is to provide relief to the people affected by the war. That means, not only food but also help in the rebuilding of their homes destroyed by Taliban earlier or bombing later. Such persons should be given rebuilding materials for their homes as well as factories or shops.

The farmers who have suffered greatly from the lasting drought and seen the death of their cattle should be given seeds and assistance in restoring their water courses.

The return of the five million refugees, three million from Pakistan and two million from Iran, has to be assisted. And they, too, have to be helped to rehabilitate themselves through the requisite financial assistance.

The rehabilitation of women should take the shape of providing them with job as teachers, health assistants etc. Opening of schools in a country in which 75 per cent of the people are illiterate, even more the women, would help the employment of large number of women.

Reconstruction work in the shattered country has to take the shape of rebuilding roads, bridges, power houses etc. The military structures destroyed will have to be rebuilt, including the military and civilian airports.

The social reconstruction should take the shape of building more schools and hospitals and places for women to work, like small industries. A number of small credit institutions will have to be setup to give credit to women and make them self-supportive, particularly when they do not have their husbands who were killed during the war.

The managerial and technical personnel who had left the country should be encouraged and enabled to return home and take part in the reconstruction work. Those who are well settled abroad may not return, but others will after a while when they see conditions in their country are really returning to normality. Some of the modern-minded Afghan women linked with those in the Northern Alliance are reported to be returning home. That is a happy development.

American leaders say they want a drug-free Afghanistan instead of one which was reported to produce 2,000 tonnes of heroin under the Taliban, although the Taliban were formally opposed to that and later came cracking down on poppy growing. It was said growing poppy brought ten times more income than growing wheat in Afghanistan. But now in an open society with too many Americans and other Westerners around it may not be possible to grow poppy in abundance and produce heroin.

The World Bank estimates the cost of reconstruction at 25 billion dollars which is a large sum, far more than what was spent initially as Marshal Aid in post-war Europe for its reconstruction. But the purchasing power of the dollar is not what it used to be then.

Mark Malloch Brown, Administrator of the UN Development Programme, who has been asked by the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to take the responsibility for the recovery effort talks of a lower figure. Based on Mozambique which had to be rebuilt after the civil war and natural disasters, he indicated the cost in Afghanistan might exceed 6.5 billion dollars in the first five years alone.

Of course, no one can make a proper estimate of the cost until the total damage is assessed and the new targets set and their detailed cost is determined and a phased plan is prepared. For that Malloch-Brown has to visit Afghanistan with his experts and hold discussions with the new leaders of Afghanistan and ascertain their demands and preferences. Then will follow the ability of the donors to mobilize the requisite funds with the US leading them all. Reconstruction of Afghanistan will be the test of Western leadership and its ability to deliver what it promises.

The World Bank is talking of a trust fund run by foreign and Afghan specialists. And Colin Powell, who presided over the November 20 conference, speaks of a steering group to mobilize funds and an implementation group to implement the projects. But the UN designated Mallock-Brown is regarded as very competent in this area both for his ideals and his capabilities.

Much of these tasks will have to be preceded by a gigantic de-mining operation. Afghanistan is probably the most heavily mined area in the world. The Russians were the first to mine it. Experts say they know best where they had mined and how, and how to remove them. They should be asked to clear their mines and others should follow suit. It is a very tough and complex task but one that could not be avoided or done in a half hearted way. Too many lives can be lost through neglect in this area or too many limbs severed.

Listing the US goals in Afghanistan, Paul O Neil says they are (1) a stable macro-economic and political environment, (2) substantial investment in health and education, (3) strong government institutions and (4) a robust and productive private sector open to global trade and investment.

In detail, (1) the US wants to generate basic levels of income in Afghanistan, (2) provide essential health and education services, (3) improve food security and (4) undertake emergency infrastructure repairs.

In brief the US wants to assist the Afghan people live “productive and successful lives”. And that is more like what the IMF wants us to do in Pakistan.

On his part, Malloch-Brown says the UN system “is braced for and poised for a major effort and what I can do is to offer some leadership at the global level to try to make sure we have a strong partnership with other organizations”.

Another meeting scheduled by the UNDP, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank in which 200 Afghans are participating is set for late November, and the European Afghan Support Group under the Chairmanship of Germany is also to meet later this year.

Pakistan can take part in the Afghan reconstruction programme in a big way if it builds good relations with the Northern Alliance now with the assistance of the Americans. It can supply a great deal of the building materials needed, like cement, steel and other inputs. Its contractors can undertake contract or sub-contract work there. Its technical personnel can work there.

The government to come in Kabul would need the cooperation of Pakistan to achieve its objectives and cannot afford to tangle with it needlessly. The approach of the next government in Kabul to Pakistan will not be the same as that of the Northern Alliance. But Pakistan will have to cultivate the new government along the right lines and tactfully.

Such understanding and cooperation are essential for the return of the three million refugees to Afghanistan as early as possible instead of too many of them staying back.

And on its part the new government in Kabul could not ignore the fact that their’s is a land-locked country and much of the goods have to reach Afghanistan via Pakistan. Hence, the government in Kabul cannot afford an offensive posture towards Pakistan for long or in its totality.

Both sides have to think of by-gones as bygones and build a productive new relationship for a better future for Afghanistan. A prosperous Afghanistan is good for Pakistan, good for mutual trade and economic cooperation.

If some of those in the government in Kabul are friendly to India that need not upset us. Afghanistan and Pakistan need each other a great deal and will gain greatly through mutual cooperation and economic exchanges. So we have to welcome the new chapter in Afghan history and begin a new chapter in our relations now.