India’s Missile Diplomacy

Patron Lt Gen (Retd) SARDAR F.S. LODI talks about total Indian defiance of the west with respect to missile development.

On 17th January, 2001 India successfully test-fired the improved version of its Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM), Agni-II from Wheelers Island on the coast of Orissa. It was a bold and uncompromising act of defiance, unworthy of a democracy which is purporting to pursue a path of peace and reconciliation in the South Asian region. It also sent a strong message to her friends and supporters in the West that India was not prepared to accept any constraints on her nuclear and missile programmes, which have been planned for years and are now being executed with political will and determination, whatever the consequences.

The improved and upgraded version of Agni-II is capable of reaching targets at a distance of 2200 to 2500 km with a payload of one tonne. The missile is obviously capable of carrying nuclear warheads as they are not cost effective if used with conventional high explosives. This is the second test firing of Agni-II, the first was carried out on April 11, 1999. The missile is a two-stage rocket using solid propellant which is considered safer for use and is more efficient. The missile can be mounted on a rail platform making it mobile and less likely to be detected and destroyed by enemy forces.

The timing of the test-firing of a long-range and nuclear-capable Agni-II missile is somewhat intriguing. It took place when India and Pakistan have both taken some positive measures towards reducing tension in the region and have shown a political will to move forward, though somewhat slowly, to a dialogue, in the hope of finding a peaceful solution to the long-standing Kashmir dispute.

India declared a ceasefire in Kashmir during the holy month of Ramzan, which was initially extended upto January 26 and has again been extended for another month. Pakistan agreed to exercise maximum restraint along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan later went a step further by reducing the quantum of troops deployed along the L of C and taking them back to their peace time locations.

Over and above these measures, peace-talks under Track-II diplomacy were taking place in Islamabad between Pakistan and Indian unofficial delegations. The Indian team was headed by their former foreign secretary Mr J. N. Dixit, the subject of the peace talks was nuclear restraint and related issues. This was very relevant to the present nuclear scenario in South Asia, which is a source of worry to the region and indeed the entire world. These Indian missile and nuclear moves may well disturb the delicately balanced and critical peace initiatives now underway.

It is surprising to note that India’s desire and intentions to extend her missile and nuclear capabilities should have been demonstrated while China’s second most important leader Mr Li Peng was on a friendly nine-day visit to India. What type of message was India sending to China while the latter was extending a hand of friendship and trying to improve relations between the two countries. Was it a demonstrated anti-China resolve for the benefit of the West. The analysts are pondering over these questions.

It may be recalled that the justification for India’s nuclear tests in May 1998 as given by their defence minister Mr George Fernandes was that China is India’s enemy number one and had deployed nuclear-armed missiles in Tibet aimed towards India. The missile deployment claim was refuted by the United States who found no evidence of missiles in Tibet. Some are of the opinion that India may actually not be too keen to forge a deeper friendship with China and forfeit all the advantages now accruing to her as a future western bulwark against China. But it is strongly felt that India’s action in testing a missile while the Chinese leader was a guest in the country was an unfriendly act and certainly devoid of diplomatic courtesy.

Internationally the timing for the testing of Agni-II missile was well chosen, just when the United States administration was changing hands from President Clinton to President Bush. The incoming US administration would take some time to settle down. In any case their first priority would be the country’s economy. In foreign affairs their attention would initially focus on Europe and the Middle East followed by China and the Far East. South Asia is likely to figure somewhat later. In the meantime India would have conducted her planned missile tests and pressure when it came, would be exerted on others in the region not to follow suit, to prevent an arms race.

‘By conducting another of its missile tests, India has once again signalled to the world, especially to its neighbours, that it has no intention of restraining itself militarily.’ Wrote the daily DAWN in its editorial on January 19, 2001. Owing to its long range the paper was of the view that densely populated cities of all of India’s neighbours are within the range of Agni-II with its deadly payload. The paper goes on to say that by yet another demonstration of its military prowess, India may add to a sense of insecurity among its small neighbours.

Although the Pakistan foreign office said that India’s missile test ‘poses a direct threat to Pakistan’s security’, the Chief Executive in an effort to save the ongoing peace effort with India, said India’s missile test should not hamper the peace-process. He said: ‘Pakistan has shown all flexibility for a peaceful settlement of the Kashmir dispute and we would not like any hurdle which may jeopardize the process.’

Within the country’s security constraints ‘Islamabad may now be prompted to carry out a series of test of its own missiles to check their efficacy,’ as the daily DAWN put it. A Gulf newspaper reported that Pakistan may soon test-fire a new series of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear war heads. Shaheen-II and a new missile ‘Haider’ may soon be tested. The paper gives the probable range of Shaheen-II as 2,500 km and that of Haider-I, which has a shorter range of 350 km.

Although Pakistan does not wish to disturb the ongoing peace efforts with India, some security measures will undoubtedly have to be taken to offset to some degree India’s superior missile threat to the country. It may be recalled that it was India that first tested its nuclear devices in May 1998 forcing Pakistan to follow suit purely as a defensive measure. This time again India is forcing her neighbours to take some adequate measures for their own defence.

To justify her expanding nuclear and missile preparations India’s Zee TV network put the blame on the China-North Korea-Pakistan nexus for threatening India. Does India expect the world to believe this obvious untruth or put any faith in Indian statements in this regard, when the new Indian Army Chief on taking over on September 30, 2000 had declared that the Indian army will be trained for a nuclear war. He has recently also made similar statements.

It may be recalled that the BJP’s election manifesto included the nuclear option and a desire to strengthen the Armed Forces. This is being done with great speed. Aside from expanding her nuclear and missile capability India is importing a large amount of sophisticated and modern arms from Russia and the West. This is a cause of considerable concern to her small neighbours.

India and Pakistan are poor countries who have been engaged in confrontation and strife for the past 53 years, in fact since they both became independent states in 1947. There is now a desire for peace in both the countries which the leaders should take note of despite of their political agendas. Their future lies in peaceful coexistence in South Asia. The causes of the disputes can better be solved by a dialogue as the Chief Executive of Pakistan has been urging for the past one year. It is hoped India will resist the desire to follow a nuclear path and live in peace with her small neighbours.