The Jury is Out

Publisher and Managing Editor IKRAM SEHGAL wrote an article entitled ‘The Jury is Out’ for THE NATION which we are re-producing with thanks.

For the foreseeable future the Mosharraf regime seems to have weathered "the perfect storm" that threatened to sweep through the intelligentsia and the masses in the wake of sending the Sharifs into a gilded royal exile in Saudi Arabia. In the first few days of the "Family Sharif" mass exodus, with servants in tow more in number than masters (and mistresses), a virtual plethora of rumours raged through the land, the mongers working overtime to discredit the government for giving us a Eid and Christmas "bonus" rolled into one. With the settling of the proverbial dust, our resilient masses are now busy in gauging for how much the others could be similarly bartered and if that would be enough to reduce a major part of the debt burden from our shoulders. The Pakistani masses have been bravely shouldering the dead weight of increasing national debt but have reached the message theme of Ayn Rand's book "Atlas Shrugged".

The present regime was certainly taken aback at the public reaction. To the credit of the government, they did not panic or react in haste as many expected them to. The rulers did seem upset that even those whom they counted as their steadfast friends became publicly critical. The regime should have done its homework by now on as to who constitutes a real friend and who is an opportunist, a real friend is someone who will bluntly tell you for your own good what is correct and what is wrong, however unpalatable. One expects the Mosharraf regime to be different from the rulers before them, not to be susceptible to flattery and/or prone to labelling foes and friends alike as black or white respectively, blind to any shades of grey.

For the record, most of the protest was in the drawing rooms and in the print media, the public anger was not aroused enough to spill over into the streets. Moreover the reason for the seething frustration being vented was rather ambiguous, were they angry because accountability of the Sharifs was not complete or were they angry because they loved the Sharifs and thought "they had been forced into exile"? Die-hard Sharifites probably felt the latter, the masses were disappointed because they felt the Sharifs should have faced the same prosecution and punishment thereof as the other corrupt of this nation are facing and/or are likely to. However, the detractors of regime, including the political parties, most of the bureaucracy, those facing accountability, etc. took good advantage of the situation to lambpaste the rulers and set rumour machines working overtime. In the meantime, aspirant political leaders of the country ran riot trying to turn their wishes into horses and so they could take their turn at beggaring the country some more. At a recent Iftar Party by a PML leader, a perceptive diplomat present counted 57 aspirant PMs among the 57 member of the Parliament and the Senate present there. With the Sharifs politically incommunicado for the foreseeable future and Ms Benazir hamstrung in exile because of her duties as the mother of small children, the political vacuum within the borders is seemingly wide open for others to exploit and get a safe passage into a national leader's mantle without going through the exercise of vote. This is wishful thinking, politics will now be run by remote control. The Sharifs, Ms Benazir Bhutto and Altaf Hussain (with a 8 year lead in exile and the know-how of how to make it a commercial success) will pull the strings of their puppets across the political stage as it suits them. All this will be for their own crass, selfish and personal reasons, politics is simply a very convenient expediency, taking advantage of the rather gullible nature of the Pakistani mass psyche.

One feels sorry for the Army and the country and not necessarily in that order. The Army has a thankless job of running the country, damned if they do not step into a crises and twice damned if they do. The prime raison d'etre of this military regime was accountability and putting in place a lasting mechanism to prevent bad governance. In less than 400 days, the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) has become a formidable crime-fighting institution. The outstanding success has been possible despite venturing into processes virtually Greek to the Army and notwithstanding a number of outright rascals with personal agendas infiltrating NAB's incipient organisational structure. However Amjad's intentions were good and the momentum of that integrity as well as the will of the Army to carry out accountability has prevailed. To paraphrase Churchill, never before have so many been brought before the judicial process by so few in so short a time to face punishment for such a vast range of misdemeanors. And we ain't seen nothing yet! How many fighting units raised during an emergency have successfully fought the subsequent war within the year of its raising? Put together from scratch, NAB went into action from the first day of its raising on Nov 16, 1999 by arresting more than three dozen known big wigs among wrongdoers, carrying out investigations at various levels across the country, force-marching accountability courts into functioning, bringing evidence and the accused before them and mostly getting favourable judgements thereof. All this while the tools of their trade, the FIA, CBR, etc were well compromised by the accused. The human failures within NAB were never an institutional failure, in any case these are being rectified by Amjad's successor in NAB, Khalid Maqbool. Even with such hurdles what NAB achieved has been nothing short of a miracle. In the circumstances availing in a country where corruption is accepted as a fait accompli and honesty/integrity as rank stupidity, NAB is a real success story for the military regime. That is why the military came to power, not to play political games. That is why the exit of the Sharifs sent somewhat confusing and mixed signals. Pervaiz Mosharraf declined politely to give the details of the Sharif mass exit (as is appropriate when confidential deals are brokered and guaranteed by a staunch friend like Saudi Arabia), in the long run Pakistan will probably come out ahead, provided the military regime plays it cards right, keeps it cool and renders genuine accountability across the board. However if public perception persists that some people with atrocious reputation are being protected rather than being prosecuted, as pimps if nothing else, then the credibility of the accountability process will become undermined. And public perception will take a rather serious dip in its esteem of the Pakistani military establishment.

All said and done, and for better or for worse, there is a military regime in Pakistan, and for the most part it is doing good rather than bad. It has not failed but neither it has succeeded as per the public expectations, not due to lack of sincerity or intention but  (1) because the expectations were too high and (2) the right people who could sincerely implement the sincerity of their intentions were not inducted into governance. Military rule is no substitute for democracy but democracy cannot guarantee the country's continued existence unless it is tempered to suit the environment prevailing, the varying cultures of the participating races and the geo-political compulsions of the area one is placed in. Without this Army, there is no Pakistan and whatever democracy western sensitivities may propagate, their's is a hypocritical stance that treats different countries with differing standards. In some countries they are the champions of democracy, where it suits their political and commercial interests they will condone autocracy. Those who defame the Army at will, do not either understand the consequences of putting the Army's credibility under undue pressures or probably do so knowing the consequences thereof. If the Army fails to hold the nation together, the resultant human tragedy will surpass Afghanistan, Somalia, Zaire, etc. We do not want to end up as a bloody postscript in the international print and electronic media, with nobody really caring what happens to us. Therefore we have no choice, since Mosharraf is the Chief of the Army and the Army is power, we have to support him. And hope that he will not misuse the responsibility thrust upon him, that he does good for this country for the sake of this country and the Army, not for his own persona. While the Jury is out on the Sharif-deal (and will be for sometime) let's not get carried away with Army - bashing or Army-baiting, let's simply recognize that the decision to send the Sharifs off was taken out of the supreme interests of Pakistan. After all, as he has said publicly in Dec 20 Speech to the nation, who has more to lose than Gen Mosharraf in letting the Sharifs go?