India’s “Poorna Vijay”

Patron Lt Gen (Retd) SARDAR FS LODI looks at the recently concluded major Indian exercise in the Rajisthan Desert.

“Poorna Vijay” was India’s largest military exercise held with full compliment of troops, since the last 13 years close to the Pakistan borders in the Bikaner sector of Rajisthan State in northern India. It involved more than 60,000 troops supported by heavy armour, Russian T-72 tanks, heavy artillery guns and over 100 combat aircraft. Parachute troops and commando units were also employed and perhaps heliborne troops as well.

The aim of this large five-day military exercise as announced by the Indian government was to “evaluate concepts and practice battle procedures during offensive and defensive operations on the future battlefield, with a nuclear backdrop”. The announcement went on to say that: “The operation aims to enhance the army’s operational preparedness through the conduct of a number of tactical exercises with troops and live firing under simulated battle conditions”. “Drills and procedures to meet challenges of a nuclear, chemical or biological strike will also be practiced”, the statement added.

Every country is no doubt entitled to hold large-scale military exercises with troops for the training of their Armed Forces. But India’s recent act of holding a large military exercise near the Pakistan border does not fall within that innocent and internationally accepted military activity. By holding a large military exercise near Pakistan’s border with its direction and movement being towards Pakistan is by itself a threatening gesture. Particularly so when the direction and scale of the exercise in the Bikaner sector of Rajisthan is one of the operational tasks given to India’s strategic reserve. A thrust into Pakistan of this magnitude is likely to disrupt Pakistan’s north-south communications, its road and rail links, which could pose a serious threat to the integrity of Pakistan.

An Indian defence spokesman is reported to have said that India’s largest military exercise near the Pakistan border will send signals to neighbours, Pakistan and China that any cross-border military adventures would lead to a swift but conventional response. This is a surprising statement as no threat whatsoever has been posed to India’s security recently by China or Pakistan, which would evoke the type of response India is suggesting. In any case how is India sending a message to China from the deserts of Bikaner near the Pakistan border or was China brought into the statement to prove her anti-China credentials to the west.

The spokesman went on to say that India’s ongoing manoeuvres in the deserts of Rajisthan state on Pakistan’s borders kills the concept that acquisition of nuclear arms by the two South Asian arch-rivals had eliminated conventional warfare. By this statement does India wish to imply that she would continue to use her superiority in conventional warfare to impose her will on South Asia perhaps India fails to realize or deliberately chooses to ignore the harsh fact that a conventional war is bound to turn nuclear beyond a certain threshold. So the “Concept” has not been killed as India may be trying to make-believe.

The official Indian military analyst Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak said, “we think this integrated exercise is at multiple levels and the first is to prepare the ground forces to fight a limited conventional war in a realistic manner”. The Air Vice Marshal seems to believe that India could initiate a limited war and fight it in a realistic manner. India certainly has the option of initiating a limited conventional war, but, thereafter, certainly loses the option of keeping the war limited and conventional for long. The initiative, thereafter, passes into other hands, who may be threatened by India’s military posture.

Air Marshal Kak went on to say. “The first message of the exercise is: If India has to fight a conventional war it will not shy away”. India had an option to fight a conventional war during the Kargil fighting but certainly shied away until President Clinton of the United States came to India’s aid and baled her out. A US mediation in India’s favour which she termed a “Victory”. The Air Marshal further said, “A signal has somehow gone out that nuclearization has eliminated limited warfare concepts”. A limited warfare concept has not been completely eliminated in a nuclear environment. It is believed that India herself had moved out at least three Prithvi and one Agni surface to surface missiles during the Kargil episode. So it comes down to the question of threshold and the limit acceptable to a nuclear armed state.

Kak went on to say that the message from the exercise to China, which fought a brief war with India in 1962, would be that India’s conventional forces were in a “high state of preparedness” despite fighting “Islamic insurgents in Kashmir since 1989”. To start with, it was not a war that China fought with India in December 1962, but only a border skirmish in which India was given a proper drubbing for her insolence in starting the conflict. There is enough international printed material including US sources to prove it.

Kak refers to “fighting Islamic insurgents in Kashmir”. He does not mention the struggle being waged by the Kashmiris for their basic right to decide which country they should join, India or Pakistan. Mr Kak may not be aware that this right was guaranteed to them by the United Nations Security Council, and also by the first Prime Minister of India, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, and the Governor General of India. These were solemn undertakings, which no self-respecting nation can afford to ignore. So why distort and falsify international facts and history of Kashmir by talking of “Islamic insurgents”.

It has been asserted by India “that the exercise also aims to prove that India’s credible nuclear deterrent is indeed credible and that our retaliation will be massive”. The open threat is in the declaration that “our doctrine is to escalate conflict beyond battlefields to strategic targets in case of nuclear war”. This was said by an unnamed Indian military commander who was involved in planning the military exercise.

In other words the Indian intention is to warn Pakistan and dissuade her from using nuclear weapons in a first strike situation by the threat of massive retaliation on strategic targets, meaning cities and other civilian areas. This is the Indian threat even though Pakistan’s initial attack is expected to be graduated from military targets. It is very doubtful if such an Indian threat would be given any consideration if India’s small neighbour is conventionally threatened beyond acceptable geographical limits. India would do well to study the NATO military and nuclear doctrine when it was faced by the massive conventional military strength of the Warsaw Pact countries opposite them.

It is not clear why India had thought it fit to bring troops from her Central Army Command to launch an exercise near the Pakistan border. This was done without informing Pakistan in accordance with the ground rules agreed upon by both countries in April 1991. Under the agreement each side is required to give advance notice to the other, of all exercises at corps level held within a distance of 75 kilometers from the border. India informed Pakistan on the DGMOs hotline that two divisional level exercises would be held in mid-May 2001. One in the Bikaner sector of Rajisthan and the other in Hushiarpur in East Punjab. On 30 April the government of India announced a corps level exercise in mid-May. No further details were given, whereas a notice in writing is required. The final phase of the exercise took place on 10 May with an assault and live firing against the enemy (Pakistan).

The military exercise was witnessed by the Indian Defence Minister Mr. Jashwant Singh and the Army Chief General S. Padmanabhan. The Russian Foreign Minister Mr. Igor Ivanov was in new Delhi at the time. After the exercise General Henry Shelton, Chairman of the US Joint Chief’s of Staff and US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage were to visit India. What type of message was India sending out to them or was India seeking the approval of her foreign visitors. As the Indian official spokesman seemed to imply by emphasizing that the exercise would not cloud the upcoming visit of the US dignitaries in the context of the ongoing debate on international security by the two countries. Because, “there has been an upswing in Indo-US relations”. Has the “upswing” given India added confidence to deal more aggressively with regional issues concerning her neighbours, to her own advantage. Overconfidence could provoke an opposite reaction in the region.

The recent Indian military exercise “Complete Victory” was not on the same large scale as “Brass Tacts” conducted in Rajisthan in 1987, which had brought India and Pakistan close to actual war. This time it has been reported that India’s over 1.4 million army has been devising ways to develop a “leaner and meaner” military with the capability of withstanding a “first nuclear strike” in battlefield conditions. India conducted a number of nuclear weapons tests in May 1998, which forced Pakistan to follow suit. After Pakistan’s tests India was surprised to lose her nuclear superiority which had earlier prompted Mr. Advani the Indian Home Minister to say “Pakistan must now understand the realities on the ground”. This was said with regard to Kashmir where certain Indian military moves had already started, but had to be abruptly abandoned in the wake of Pakistan’s nuclear tests. After nuclear parity in the region India advocated the doctrine of “no first use” of nuclear weapons, which would certainly not suit Pakistan, as it possesses inferior conventional forces compared to India. Therefore, this recent threat of massive nuclear retaliation by India, which is hardly an impressive statement.

According to the official military spokesman India is developing a command and control system which will survive a first nuclear strike and respond with at least three waves of nuclear counter attacks. It must be appreciated that the answer is not in the “first strike” or the “massive retaliation” in three waves, but in avoiding an armed conflict and armed confrontation. Instead of the unnecessary sabre rattling that India has just indulged in, there must be some confidence building measures leading to a dialogue between the two countries to solve the problems that are leading to armed confrontation. This has to be done in the spirit of mutual respect on the basis of sovereign equality of nations, for any hope of lasting peace in the region.