Taiwan arms sale package and US- China relations

Columnist HUMERA NIAZI looks at the US-China-Taiwan triangle of dispute.

It was the decision of the Bush administration, to sell a five billion dollars arms package to Taiwan, which could be seen as the largest arms sale deal to them, in the history of the United States. What is significant, is that it comes at a time when, US-China relations, are under stress. And if the two powers do not act with responsibility now; it could lead to miscalculations. It is certainly a situation which needs to be resolved on a note of caution and wisdom, because there are dangerous implications.

President George Bush has returned to a tougher stance immediately, in a follow up of the US spy plane episode, which is not completely, over. The US has ignited another ‘sensitive’ issue with its arms sale decision to Taiwan. This happens even before the dust has settled down, after the US Chinese mid-air collision and the fervour caused by the incident, still remains.

The arms sales package, offered by the US to Taiwan, is a tall order, but it does not include the sale of the objectionable weapons system. That is the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, which have the Aegis combat radar system.

Even though the US has decided to defer the sale of the Aegis-equipped destroyers, it cannot serve as succour to the already sour US-China relations.

China feels that the Aegis system is clearly directed to its missile build up in the area. And if it is achieved by Taiwan, it could move towards providing them with a missile defence system.

The response from China, to the US offered hi-tech arms sale to Taiwan, could be seen as a strong rejection, on Bejing’s part. Serving as a reaction, China views it as an interference in its internal affairs. It is termed as a violation of the 1972, 1978 and 1982 joint communiqués between Washington and Beijing, reflecting on Sino-US relations. Further China perceives, the US arms sale decision as a provocation to Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity. It increases tension across the Taiwan strait.

Apart from deferring the hi-tech Aegis defence system, the US offer is viewed as the sale of objectionable arms by China. The package includes four Kidd Class, less advanced destroyers, twelve P.3 submarine hunting aircraft and eight diesel submarines. They are considered as advanced weapons. China feels that the sale of such weapons seriously undermines its sovereignty interfering in China’s internal matters. Quoting Niu Jun, of Peking University about these weapons, is that, "They have offensive capabilities and aren’t purely defensive. By making the decision the US is crossing the warning line and the consequences will be serious".

The US decision to sell this sophisticated weaponry to Taiwan has a very strong message. It could well appear to be a bid for the balancing of power between China and Taiwan. And an attempt to lessen the escalation in China’s missile and air threats in the region. China, is an upcoming military power regionally. China has approximately three hundred short range ballistic missiles (which Taiwan faces). It also has advanced submarines, giving it an ability to cause a naval blockade. A Pentagon report states that by 2005, the balance of military power could swing to China’s favour. The US logic is that deferring the Aegis system within context to Taiwan arms sales is an important bargaining chip to control China’s Military weapons strength but could the effectiveness of the strategy hold out? And how is the US going to respond to other dangerous and important aspects that come with it. What is counter productive, is the beginning of an arms race, in that region. This could be the opposite, of what is sought, by the US. That  is when it is trying to control the advancement of China’s weaponry.

The Taiwan arms sale decision by the US, happens to cause a stir, internationally, but it does run into some snags.

i.          The time factor.
ii.         Economic limitations.

The concerned weapons sale to Taiwan, has time related problems. That is when the US has kept the Aegis system offer to Taiwan, pending for a future time it tends to lose the potential for being a "powerful deterrent. And that being the "very purpose" for a future offer of this defence system by the US. This is because China can devise "new" technology and methods to overcome it, as it provides ample time.

The US Arms sale in question has the economic stigma (very high price) which is difficult for the Taiwanese government to, easily overcome. Taiwan’s economy is not robust enough, for it.

The Kidd class destroyers, would involve improving the defence radar system. Therefore, could be sold to Taiwan at an approximate cost of a hundred and eighty five million US dollars, per destroyer. Then the P.3. aircraft (which hunts for submarines) would prove costly, because its manufacture has stopped. And to restart its making, would mean extra work. Furthermore, the US, has stopped making diesel submarines since a long time, the US would have started afresh, to manufacture these submarines. And for that, it would have to now make the Dutch or German versions. The US would have to take help from these countries for the purpose. Would the concerned countries want to have their diplomatic terms with China, turn bad, in order to appease the US?

What is becoming important is US China relations: which presently could be termed as bad. A new cold war in Asia? That is the question analysts are posing. The Taiwan arms sale offer, by the US, comes at a time, when in the recent past a lot of things have happened, to negatively affect the relations between the United States and China. A number of incidents from the 90’s to 2001 have proved deteriorative to the US-China relationship. In the past the Chinese conducted military exercises in 1996, near Taiwan. This initiated, a change in the military policy of the US towards Taiwan. It was then, that there was a bout of missile rattling, between US and China. It resembled gunboat diplomacy by the US. The episode, really caused a stir, seeing two big powers getting involved in a ‘too close for comfort,’ situation. There was prior to this in 1994, another incident which caused resentment from Beijing. This was when a Chinese sub was tracked in international waters, by US Navy planes, after being detected by US aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk. Furthermore, in 1999, the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia was bombed, by the US, claiming it to be an accident.

This should have served as the writing on the wall, that things were really bad but that did not happen. Instead, there was the US, spy-plane crisis. Also there have been allegations by the US, of espionage, on China’s part, recently. The US, has accused China of human rights lapses. And to add to all this, it was the most recent decision by the US to sell a large amount of sophisticated arms to Taiwan. Furthermore, adding to the arms sale decision to Taiwan the US has really caused a concern with China, when it has agreed to go ahead with the missile defence system.

It is under such circumstances that US and China should rethink improving their relationship. The important development is, a focus on the Taiwan issue and an arms race in the region. China should also, consider such a situation, with a positive approach, as Taiwan is a ‘flashpoint’. It is seen as a renegade province of China and, therefore, China feels it is a ‘sovereignty issue’. Nonetheless it is there. The US has a policy of containment and a concern for China’s growing military prowess. The US could move towards a new approach positively, because a twenty two years old US policy on China, could be seemingly worn out. The new ground realities require better handling.

The US has adopted a stance which is openly hard-line towards China. President George Bush has been quite vocal on the arms sale issue. It resembles, a ‘wild west approach’ and an indication of super-power superiority. Whereas, what has become important recently, is the ‘nationalism’ issue in China. This appeared strongly, at the time of the mid-air accident between US E.P.3 Spyplane and the Chinese F-8 Fighter jet interceptor. It called for a firm response by China. It was reflected on the internet, stating ‘it was a war’ (SINO.COM) The tough overtures by the Bush administration did leave some space, for good sense to prevail. Firstly, when there was a ‘double sorry’, in context to the spy-plane. Secondly, they have left China with some hope for a better future scenario. This is when, the US has not included the Aegis defence system, within the arms sale package to Taiwan. The US-China relationship is at a point of brinkmanship. It seems there is a realization of this ‘now’. Therefore, both the countries should move seriously towards improving relations....