After the EP3 incident

Columnist MB NAQVI looks at the international scene after the Hainan incident.

There were conflicting stories about the Russians trying to persuade the UN Security Council to impose UN sanctions on Pakistan for supporting Taliban that are already under UN sanctions. Russians have denied saying that they are trying to do this. But whether or not they are trying to do it, the drift of their foreign policy is against this country as well as against Taliban. The statement of Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN was reassuring indeed. But the matter should be seen in the light of the rest of the Asian background, which in its turn, has to be set in the evolving situation in the largest and most populous Continent following the gravest crisis in the new Century: the one between the US and China over the US spy plane’s snooping and its having sent a Chinese fighter into the South China Sea, with the loss of the pilot’s life.

That the crisis did not explode into something more tragic is fortunate. But its shadow will continue to hover over the Sino-American ties and the overall Asian politics is sure to be coloured by this incident’s implications and residual influences.

Let us take this particular crisis first. It is now no longer a developing situation and at the time of writing it is behind us, though not all the issues in it have been settled. One’s assumption was that it will not lead to war, although both sides were quite angry and in fact bloody-minded. The Americans think it is their God given right to do what they please around the globe. And in this case they had just about a fig leaf of being in the international waters, as they define it. The Chinese think that the US plane had no business circling over the new high-tech destroyer of their Navy so close to the Chinese coast; the US had no business trying to find out what the destroyer has or is capable of. The EP3 was circling over it quite low in altitude and was photographing and taking in all the data that it could through the plane’s many sensing and monitoring devices. The Chinese sent two fighters to intercept and bring the offending aircraft into China. The American aircraft deliberately or conceivably accidentally hit one of the Chinese fighters, sending it to its doom in the waters along with the pilot. The other Chinese fighter aircraft had to fire warning shots to compel the US aircraft to obey. Eventually it landed, unannounced on the Hainan island. Where it has stayed put so far. There are several issues before the incident can become closed: after the Chinese having obtained a “very sorry” apology, they are demanding compensation for the fighter pilot’s loss. Only then can the Chinese allow the spy plane to be returned, as is being demanded by the US.

The Americans had at first blustered. They said the aircraft is United State’s sovereign territory and no Chinese may enter it; it would be a trespass and an offence against the sovereignty of the United States. The Chinese laughed and queried: how come that the sovereign United States ‘territory’ came and landed on a Chinese island airfield! The Chinese held their ground. They demanded proper apology from the United States to the people of China for the loss of Chinese fighter aircraft, to begin with, and for violating its sovereignty. The US was not willing to make a formal apology that could set a precedent for others because the Americans want to reserve the right to all sorts of spying in all parts of the world. But they soon began to climb down from the high horse they were riding in the earlier days of the crisis. Even so, they found it hard to swallow the bitter pill and apologise. They came down to threatening China with the loss of trading benefits that they enjoy in the American market. The Chinese were not amused or impressed. They could say, but did not that what about the substantial American investments in China. Would not their security be threatened if the US took an aggressive trade action against China? Even otherwise there was no serious threat of war despite the worsening relationship between the two most powerful countries of the world today. But after what they had experienced in Korea and Vietnam during the last century, the Americans would never again fight a land war in Asia. If and when they are forced to take punitive military action —- hardly conceivable against China —they would have to confine themselves to the use of their high-tech air force and Navy. But in this department too the Chinese are not babes in the wood; they can inflict absolutely unacceptable damage on the US.

That is why one thought that there was no real threat of war.  That does not mean that the Americans will not strengthen their alliances and start a virtual contain-China policy. If they do that, the going is to get rough for Asia especially for the smaller states. That is a point that needs to be made for the benefit of Pakistanis. Let us remember Pakistanis weakness: Pakistan’s military rulers tend always to punch above their weight. They have also suffered for it. Their economy is threatened with going belly up just because of trying to overspend in order to keep up with the Indian Jonses who have more resources. They have to be careful in ensuing a virtual new cold war in Asia in which the focus of the American eyes would be provided by a huge arch stretching from Australia in the south, Japan and South Korea to the north. The heart of the alignment would of course be the United State’s own navy and air force. But they would need many more friends, particularly in south east Asia, to begin with, and maybe also in South Asia.

South Asia of course is a can of worms that is none too lightly shut. The most vicious of the contents are the two competing nuclear deterrents of India and Pakistan. So long as they remain isolated internationally, South Asians will not do much harm to anyone else. All the harm that can come from the competing arms races in all relevant spheres —- conventional arms, nuclear weapons and missiles —- would be confined to the people of the Subcontinent. The Indians and Pakistanis are doing what they are doing at the expense of their own peoples’ welfare and interests. As it happens, South Asia is the largest reservoir of poverty, backwardness, disease and illiteracy. It is a huge ghetto of the wretched of the earth. For India and Pakistan to flaunt their nuclear deterrents, is an abomination and an offence against their own people. Anyway, should the new cold war get going, there would be pressures on both these rivals to line up with the US. Considering all things and recent moves, it does look as if the Indians would be more adroit and will be able to cosy up to the US to form an Indo-US alliance of their own —- the military cooperation between the two countries has already been agreed to in the recent visit of India’s Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh. Pakistan then will have to, willy nilly, get closer to China, both for historical reasons and in terms of gratitude for the services China has unilaterally rendered it. It will also feel a political compulsion to stand in the corner of China.

Leaving aside other parts of Asia, one is concentrating only on the populous South Asia. Here there are two issues on which the Pakistanis have to do some hard thinking. One is Afghanistan, where the US is officially against Taliban regime and has ensured UN sanctions on it. But Taliban happen to be alone in the world. China does not like them one little bit. The only thing that can be said is that the Chinese thinking about Taliban does not tend in the direction of any military action. It thinks that political action might just suffice, requiring cooperation of the Russia and central Asian republics with it for a coordinated, if not joint, action. A joint political pressure of all would eventually isolate and force Taliban to become more moderate and reasonable so that the Afghan situation can be pacified and peace consolidated in Afghanistan without endangering other neighbours of Afghanistan. The Russians, although they have gone along with China by joining the Shanghai Five, may not be quite so sure. They had earlier threatened to take direct military action against Taliban in the shape of aerial strikes. They seem to be basically undecided. For the time being, they are with China for putting political pressure on Taliban.

The consequence of this background is that pressures on Pakistan are sure to mount. Taliban are likely to remain the focus of international effort. The real target would in point of fact be Pakistan because it is seen to be the only power that is sustaining Taliban. By themselves the Taliban are thought to be an ephemeral force such as come and go as a school of thought almost everywhere. It is Pakistan which is giving it a semblance of solidity and power. Therefore in the days to come, Pakistanis will be well advised to expect more pressure on Taliban and itself. It is in this background that one said that the trend of the Russian action suggests that Pakistan would be the real target of all the international action that would be taken nominally against Taliban.

Going back to the crisis centring on South China Sea and dividing much of Asia into notionally pro-US and pro-China camps, various kinds of pressures on South Asia are sure to increase. The international climate for both India and Pakistan might progressively become more demanding. But insofar as Pakistan is concerned, the position would be worse. It has become isolated on a number of issues, and most of these are well understood by most aware Pakistanis. Meanwhile the Indians have projected an image of an up and coming big economy that is taking off.

It is a big and flourishing market for the huge surplus international capital and it is also a stable democracy. The Americans have plumped for it. A veritable romance is going on between the US and India. The latest in this is, as noted, increased defence cooperation between the two countries and of course the political chemistry between the two over many political questions seems to be excellent as they both appear to agree with each other excellently. That leaves Pakistan out in the cold. The Pakistanis thought that they were the darlings of the Americans, as indeed they were in the old cold war days. But the cold war is over while the Pakistani mind set has not changed; for some reason Pakistanis continue to dream that one of these days an American prince charming will come riding and redeem their economy by massive investments and aid. It is high time that Pakistanis woke up to the reality that Americans are not coming back, even though some of the socalled experts think that they can somehow or the other entice or inveigle the US into schemes that will in the long run lead to cooperation between Pakistan and America in overseas matters that would be of financial advantage to Pakistan. This is a chimera originating in our wishful thinking and is dependent on the Americans being such suckers. The Pakistani mind has also not grasped the direct implications or ramifications of the Sino-US crisis. Pakistan would eventually come under pressure to choose between the US and China, if the crisis is not composed in such an extra friendly manner as would remove the bitterness already created and that it will further not leave long lasting effects on the Sino-American relations. In short, the requirement is that an easily possible Sino-American cold war should be prevented from breaking out. But if it is composed in a way in which bitterness lingers on or may go on increasing as a result of the compromise formulas’ reactions in the US, the cold war might become inevitable. The Pakistanis would be well advised to be prepared for the worse, while they may go on hoping that the worst will not happen. Being prepared for the worst means to be ready to find their correct place in the emerging new situation. Are they ready?

A couple of adverse pressures on Pakistan are coming in the shape of a pincer. One prong of the pincer is Afghanistan while the other may be Sino-American crisis. Insofar as Afghanistan is concerned, it is breeding instability by the hour. As a result of Ahmed Shah Masood’s European visit, it can be assumed that the Europeans would give some moral, political and financial support to Northern Alliance while the likelihood of increased military supplies to it cannot be discounted.

Indeed the possibility is not only real but may be quite likely. Should that come to pass, as it well may, there would be more intense fighting in Afghanistan 2001 summer in earnest. Pakistanis shall see no option but to prop up the Taliban end. Defeat and destruction of Taliban would be a big minus for Pakistani rulers and that too after going so far in their support, it may not be easy for them to retreat. They are out on a promontory and the line of retreat has been cut. They will have to help Taliban fight as best as they can, while the Europeans, the Russians, the Uzbeks, the Tajiks and the others will want to ensure that the Northern Alliance gives a better account of itself than it has done so far. The Indians and the Iranians are directly drawn into this scenario. Should they also plump and provide more hardware and other support including some logistics, the going for the Taliban can get rough. How rough is impossible to say. If the fight would remain confined to the Northern Alliance, supported by central Asians alone, the chances of Taliban would be good. But if the Europeans, the Russians, the Indians and Iranians also undertake to bolster Northern Alliance with money and material, then all the bets would be off. Pakistanis have to wait and see what the quantum of European, Russian and Iranian support is going to be and the political policies of Taliban government would have to be tailored around that real assessment. As for the other prong it is hard to say what Pakistan can do in this circumstance. There is very little for Pakistan to do except to wait and see. Its influence is small and its reach is smaller still. One wishes that the rulers of the country realised how limited is their strength and influence and how tough the going can get if they continue to try to punch above their weight.

What Pakistan can do instead is to compensate for its strategic, economic and political and military weakness in some fashion —- but the comparison with the big boys abroad will remain adverse. The Pakistanis can compensate it with better understanding, articulation and PR. In short, diplomacy is to be really given a chance. Here it is necessary to jump several steps of the proper case for the recommendation being made —- this is not an executive summary —- in this piece, mostly because of the space. It is time that the Pakistanis started talking about an Asian security arrangements. At least the Asians should be able to meet together to discuss the European model of security and human rights arrangements for this Continent. That is the escape route if only the rulers of Pakistan do not insist on running foreign and security policies that are way above the capacity of Pakistan economy to sustain.

But they will have to be competent. There is another rich vein for Pakistan diplomacy to mine: horrendous consequences of the global free trade to the poor debt-ridden failed or failing states of the third world. The issues impact on Pakistan also and it can have the support of both Russia and China, while India is likely to stay in the Americans boudoir. The point is that the possibilities for taking some mileage through better articulation do exist. Does Islamabad have it in itself to low its sights and gain only what it can by its own exertions?