Mayday, Mayday!

Publisher and Managing Editor IKRAM SEHGAL  wrote this article for THE NATION which the DJ is re-producing with thanks.

Within a week of his appointment as COAS on Oct 7, 1998 Gen Pervez Musharraf made wholesale changes in the senior military hierarchy. The swiftness of the postings of relatively junior Lt Gens into critical slots left no doubt that they were being made with an eye to safeguard his future, and why not, given the unceremonious exit of his predecessor? In “POWER PLAY”, (THE NATION Oct 17, 1998), PM Mian Nawaz Sharif was warned not to mess with the Army again, “he would have reason to remember JK (Jahangir Keramet) with a lot of nostalgia, sooner rather than later”, unquote. The drastic changes, viz (1) Aziz on promotion to Lt Gen posted as Chief of General Staff (CGS), (2) Muzzafar Usmani shifted from Bahawalpur (Comd 31 Corps) to Comd 5 Corps at Karachi and (3) Mahmood Ahmad moving from National Defence College (NDC) to take over as Comd 10 Corps at Rawalpindi, paid off for Musharraf in spades less than a year later on Oct 12, 1999. While Musharraf was hors de combat in the air, the counter coup of “the three musketeers” not only prevented Mian Nawaz Sharif from doing another civilian coup “a la Karamat” but also removed him from power. Musharraf then made one very wise, farsighted move, which must be commended. Between his “musketeers” and himself were about 10 Lt Gens from six PMA Long Courses, not heart and soul behind him as much as his loyalists. Instead of packing off those not in line, he displayed wisdom and supreme self-confidence, keeping the unity of the Army intact by being patient in letting friend and perceived foe retire as per their normal tenure over a period of almost 18 months, “the Last of the Mohicans” being Lt Gen Tahir Ali Qureshi, ex- 33 PMA Long Course, going home on May 16, 2001. Beyond his loyalists (and the present CGS Lt Gen Yousuf) all the Lt Gens are his appointees, and barring one doubtful case, all deserved promotion. On May 17, 2001 the senior-most of the Oct 12 Young Turks, Lt Gen Muzzafar Usmani will become Deputy Chief of Army Staff (DCOAS), though the “langar gup” (kitchen gossip) was that he would become Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCOAS). Usmani has to choose professionalism over religion and solitude, opting for the latter he would probably have been better off retiring and remaining as Governor Sindh, which he has been in all but name anyway, running the Province by proxy through a handful of Brigadiers. The aloofness gives an unfortunate perception of arrogance of rank, it is difficult to reconcile this Usmani to the person one knew a million years ago. Succumbing to the Pharaoh-syndrome is not Pakistan-specific, religious piety notwithstanding.

Talking of “Young Turks”, the Chief Executive has had an extended youth in Turkey, the raison d’être for Ataturk as his preferred role model. Thus the cancellation of Bayinder’s contract for the Islamabad–Peshawar motorway by the National Highway Authority (NHA) during his turn of duty is shocking. Turkish President Suleyman Demirel with a full load of 9 Cabinet Ministers had especially flown to Pakistan for the contract signing ceremony. When Mian Nawaz Sharif restored the contract Ms Benazir had cancelled for political reasons, NHA had to concede far better terms because Pakistan was in a legal bind. Bayinder has proven to be a really bad contractor but NHA also has glaring failings. Why didn’t we ask the Turkish-Government to appoint a Turkish arbitrator of their choice whose decision we would accept as final? That would have put the onus on Turkey. Bayinder has claimed before the Lahore High Court about being pressurized to sub-let the contract to the favourites of some high-ups, such blackmail is not uncommon in Pakistan as one can attest from sorry experience. The present Chairman NHA does not enjoy a very good reputation but the rot seems to reach deep into the upper reaches of the Communications Ministry. The Musharraf regime would do well to conduct accountability expeditiously. Whatever the reason, whatever the shortcomings, the sensitiveness of the Turkish relationship makes it obligatory to supersede all crass commercial factors. No amount of monetary loss is worth alienating Turkey which has always stood behind us like a rock. Iran is already annoyed with us over the Taliban issue and India has exploited this opening by proposing a Indo-Iran nexus. For me personally, it will always be Turkey, right or wrong. The situation must not get out of hand, very much like it seems to be happening between India and Bangladesh.

Snakes and ladders would better describe the border between India and Bangladesh, the heritage of haphazard demarcation pre-1947, carrying through 1971 to the present day. The goodwill of the first years after 1971 notwithstanding, altercation between India and Bangladesh was always on the cards, that it had to wait thirty years to come out in the open is the surprise. 75% of Bangladesh’s borders are with India, only a matter of time before the constant daily friction in innumerable places caused an explosion. Not many people know that the Indian Border Security Force (BSF) and Bangladesh Rifles (BDR), no love lost between them, have been inflicting casualties on each other regularly for the last three decades. With post-1971 officers now coming into command positions in the Bangladesh Army, Bangladeshis are less and less beholden to India for 1971. India claim that 16 BSF soldiers were shot in cold blood, what they were doing in company strength plus at 5:30 in the morning on the Bangladeshi side of the border rousing Bangladeshi villagers from their beds? Moreover, India uses the fiction of mutilation of bodies by muslims as a regular propaganda tool, viz (1) the Talibaan regularly mutilate their opponent’s bodies (2) the Indian pilot shot down over Kargil in 1999 was killed and disfigured on being captured and now (3) the Bangladeshi troops have mutilated the BSF soldier’s bodies. There is an animal known as “wolf” and India has been crying it once too often. Bodies lying in water out in the sun for three days become further decomposed on being dragged several hundred yards. When the BSF men were being shot “at close range in cold blood”, how did they manage to kill two BDR men, one of whom was manning a machine gun in a defiladed position?

Hegemony is an obsession with India, it will never have peace until it can tolerate independent, sovereign countries on its periphery. With major cities of India like Calcutta in the proximity of its borders, Bangladesh is capable of military mayhem, the resultant stampede would kill millions and block all communications. The Bangladesh Army would have certainly learnt the lessons of 1971, moreover Pakistan‘s Eastern Command had to contend with a hostile population, cut off from its logistics base 1000 miles away. While an “Association of Eastern States of South Asia” (AESSA) remains a concept only, one cannot see Bangladesh standing by and seeing millions of its citizens settled (albeit illegally) in the Eastern States of Assam, Tripura, etc (their-version of “Lebensraum”) subjected to pogrom and atrocities by both Indian troops and the indigenous population. The latent animosity between India and Bangladesh has come to the surface at a most inopportune time, pre-General Elections in Bangladesh. India has asked for the DG BDR’s head on a platter, it would be a kiss of death politically for Hasina Wajid to oblige. Bangladeshi nationalist sentiments already consider Hasina Wajid’s Awami League (AL) pro-India, this favours Khalida Zia’s strongly anti-India Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Kargil propelled the BJP-led coalition back into power (on the strength of blatant nationalist jingoism), Khalida Zia’s vote bank will increase, it being too close to the elections for the Vajpayee Government to do effective damage control. Dhaka stadium during a cricket or hockey match between India and Pakistan is an excellent barometer to really discern who the Bangladeshis favour, the horrors of 1971 notwithstanding.

Which leads us to the Government’s ham-handed handling of ARD’s decision to hold a rally on May Day. For a military regime that has the self-confidence to tolerate a free press, this was sheer lunacy. The ARD would have got a few thousand supporters, the administration’s efforts to prevent the event made it newsworthy, giving fresh life to the ARD campaign, rejuvenating the “deader than the duck” has-been politicians. Someone gave the CE very wrong advice, the military government need not have cracked down, there was no need to “send a message” bureaucracy - style. The politicians must be given a chance to let off steam, as the media-men in Karachi recently told the Federal Interior Minister, “give them a Hyde Park”. Having exercised patience, this uncalled-for crackdown has created doubt about the regime’s long-term abilities to cope with governance into a democratic period. One hopes that the May Day fiasco will not be repeated, otherwise we may well be yelling “Mayday, Mayday” to “save our souls” (SOS) from the mistakes of those in power.