The new global power equation – big clout for small people

Columnist SULTAN AHMED sees smaller nations making their pressure felt in the new international equation. 

“The day the world changed,” said the prestigious Economist of London following the September 11 horrendous attacks in New York and Washington. Its editorial pronouncement was re-echoed by many other Western publications.

They said Pearl Harbour changed America and, therefore, the world. And after that momentous attack by the Japanese which brought America into the war directly and fully, came the appalling attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York and the citadel of the US military might, the Pentagon in Washington. There is speculation about the horrifying might-have been if the third plane which crashed in Pennsylvania had succeeded in attacking its target, which was surmised as the White House, the seat of all authority in the US.

In the face of such strong Western consensus, many in the Third World and Asia in general were skeptical of whether September 11 would change the world altogether. But now they are coming to realise the deeper impact of the horrific September 11 and how greatly the power equation in the world has been changed.

Of course, September 11 will change the US thinking about the world and its own future role in it. And it will change the American way of life substantially. Americans cannot live any longer saying and believing they are the best and the most powerful in the world and the American continent is immune to what is happening in the rest of the world, sometimes of its own making and at other times because of factors beyond its control or influence.

Now the US has to involve itself in what is happening in the rest of the world with greater earnestness and lasting sincerity, re-examine its own contribution to the world, including its measures which make the world worse in some areas. It has to strive earnestly to improve conditions around the world, and try to de-activate the well-springs of terrorism, which include abject poverty, absolute tyranny, injustice and exploitation of the weak by the strong and the rich.

A month before September 11 the Senate majority leader in US Tom Deschele (Democrat) spoke of how his country was drifting away from the world and major international agreements. He said “on six separate occasions in six months the Bush Administration has demonstrated a willingness to walk away from agreements that were embraced by many of our closest friends and allies and broadly supported by the international community.”

He listed the six agreements as: 1. The Kyoto Protocol on Environmental Safety. 2. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, 3. A measure to create an International Criminal Court. 4. The Biological Weapons Protocol. 5. A global agreement to curb illicit sale of small arms and light weapons. 6. The Anti-ballistic Missile Treaty.

Deschele said “reasonable people can disagree about the merits of each of these individual agreements, but I don’t think reasonable people can ignore the consequences of tearing up each one. Instead of asserting our leadership we are abdicating it.”

September 11 and the events that have followed signify the relevance of three of the agreements to the US immediately. They are the biological weapons Protocol, a global agreement to curb illicit sale of small arms and light weapons, and an international criminal court that can try global terrorists. And we certainly need the Kyoto Protocol for a safer, cleaner and secure world. The US has now to re-think its approach to these propositions and re-evaluate its indefensible opposition.

What kind of a world are the Americans living in after September 11? They have now to trade a part of their liberty for security? They can’t walk into a plane as if they are walking into a bus and be allowed to board it with hardly any check. The terrorists who crashed two planes into the World Trade Centre and another at the Pentagon did not bring in their own missiles, which would have been too hazardous, but used the US commercial airlines as their missile heedless of the passengers on board who died in the process. And they had got training for flying the planes in the US and exposed the absolute lack of safety measures in the US aviation system.

And now the Americans live in fear of anthrax after 41 of them are reported to have been infected and the House of Representatives was shut down for the week-end after 31 of its staff members were suspected of being infected by the white powder they had received in envelopes which they opened unsuspectingly.

Now after over 6,000 persons had been killed at the World Trade Centre, including members of 60 countries – 53 Pakistanis among them – the average American lives in fear of opening a letter. That is happening in a country of massive junk mail sent to each home.

The Taliban have denied sending those envelopes with white powder. So have Osama’s men. Mommar Ghaddafi of Libya has condemned the sending of those envelopes very strongly. Anyway all the envelopes originated from the US.

The scare in the US is real. What September 11 in the US as well as events in Palestine, and Kashmir – earlier in Sri Lanka — underscore is that if a few persons or a person is ready to die he can kill far more persons. Modern arms technology is very helpful to such terrorists. One can go into any crowd and throw a hand-grenade or two and run. And there are the crude rocket launchers, apart from missiles locally acquired or built.

What the suicidal attacks and the mass murders which follow highlight is the need for solving the major problems which drive the youngmen towards such fearsome acts with horrendous results. If major problems are not solved in good time and if justice is not rendered to the wronged and there is no hope of early solution, as in Palestine or Kashmir the desperation of the young will drive them towards such ghastly suicides which kill far more with them.

What such suicides underline is that such disputes should not be allowed to fester forever as in Palestine and Kashmir. And the poor people of South America and Africa cannot be allowed to suffer forever, starve and be ravaged by AIDS for too long, without some of them wanting to strike back at those whom they hold responsible for their infinite suffering.

We cannot have a world in which some countries are too rich and some too poor. The wealth and prosperity of the rich as seen by the poor through films and TV provoke the poor and drive them to commit horrible acts.

What September 11 and suicidal attacks elsewhere testify is the poor and the weak have now the means to get even with the rich and the strong, whether they are a people or countries.

Iraq’s Saddam Hussain was earlier suspected of making biological weapons which he had described as the poor countries’ nuclear bombs. The fact is that according to the US many countries are engaged in making biological weapons. What the governments do today, the people can do tomorrow. In that atmosphere fear of biological weapons, like the anthrax scare, spreads.

If the wrongs done to the small countries and exploited people are not remedied in good time they may take to biological weapons in the manner criminals are now using Kalashnikovs and rocket launchers.

What that means is strong countries are no longer absolutely strong vis-a-vis their small challengers with deep grievances and suicidal drives. Strong countries have now to find a balance between their wealth and armed might on one side and justice to their people, to their neighbours and others affected by their adverse policies. It is not everyday that a strong country can go to war with another country or attack a small country. The forms of conflicts between them are changing a great deal and the big countries are realising their limitations against the small and the weak in any armed conflict. The big powers can no longer use their military might heedless of its consequences for others or the world opinion.

Look at what is happening in Afghanistan. In Iraq the US relied largely on its air power and did not want to risk US personnel on ground combat. President Bush was hoping to obtain the same kind of results in Afghanistan and started air strikes from September 7. But there is nothing much to bomb after Afghanistan had been destroyed by 22 years of war and civil war. After bombing the airports, military depots and training grounds, and hitting some planes and tanks, using 100 bombers at its peak, President Bush said conventional war using large land forces would not achieve results in Afghanistan. The guerilla war was more appropriate. That was his conclusion after the fourth aircraft carrier had steamed into the Gulf, more to scare the Afghans than to win the war.

Here is a war between the richest and most powerful country in the world and the weakest and poorest country. The nations of the world, led by Western Europe, have joined the coalition against terror. There are no neutrals in this war. And yet the US is helpless in Afghanistan after 12 days of massive bombing and has now to fight a guerilla war in Afghanistan, while at home the fear of anthrax spreads, along with the scare the terrorists may strike again.

When Osama says there can be no peace in the US as long as there is no peace in Palestine he is right. Yasser Arafat wants a negotiated settlement with Israel but as long as Israel does not stop the brutal killing of Palestinians he cannot restrain the young Palestinians who call for blood for blood.

It is true that for every Israeli killed, Israel kills far more Palestinians. Since the assassination of an Israeli cabinet minister Rehavam Zeevi 12 Palestinians have been killed against one more Israeli but that will only increase the resolve of young Palestinians to kill more Jews as long as they are in occupation of the West Bank and promote more Jewish settlements there.

In reply to many questions put to the Afghan ambassador in Pakistan Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef said what the Taliban were doing was a matter of faith. That explains their reluctance to surrender Osama for trial in a neutral country. When a people are convinced of the justice of their cause and make it a matter of faith in which they believe absolutely they are not scarced of the power or wealth of their opponents.

A report from Washington says the US is now more likely to face what some are calling “post-modern terrorists” with no particular national ties, attacking American and American society directly, as some military experts fear.

And that means that instead of tying itself tight with Israel the US should look into the causes for the spread of terrorism and for many young people, 19 of them on September 11, being ready to sacrifice their lives, and do justice to the world, particularly the Arabs. They should look at the other well-springs of terrorism as in Kashmir, and wherever there is excessive poverty and, infinite injustice. The super power should also become super just and play fair with all.