War without victors

Col (Retd) DIETER KILLAN says the present Afghan war will have only losers.

For more than five weeks now, these more and more defiant operations of the USA against the Taliban regime have been lasting and it does not look like a close end, in the contrary. The German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) is on the verge of preparedness, looking ahead an uncertain New  Year’s Eve.

The attack on WTC  has left over a horrible heap of debris, which seems — in its sadness — to suit much better in the already destroyed city of Kabul than to the exciting city of New York. At the same time, however, it has paralysed the humanistic nerve  of the cultural traditions of the Western world. War again is a  means of politics, and regained its former disgusted value as a source of political therapy and as solution of problems caused by an enemy who seems to be of a more fictitious than a real nature. We will overcome the pretended invincibility of those  stone age warriors, Washington claims. 

And indeed, in history each and every power and army was  finally defeated: the Romans, Napoleon, the German Wehrmacht  just in the same manner as the Red Army and the USA. That means that also those Taliban fighters are not invincible as it is stated quite often. But the central question leads to the price for such a victory, its conditions and its consequences! The politicians have to determine the frame in which military acts.  However, for more than a month now, the USA  has been fighting  this campaign against terrorism only with a one-dimensional instrument and means, which, because not constructed for such a scenario, are insufficient. 

 Afghanistan, a vast and sparing country with deserts and snow covered peaks is close to the winter season. The small guerilla forces of the Talibans operate in an environment which is their favourable and well-known homeland, where they hardly can be detected and reconnoitred by air. Such an aim could only be achieved by highly mobile special forces operating on the ground, but they are too small in number and need exactly determined targets for their success — and even this is of problematic nature.

On the opposite side a guerilla force has been struggling for years now,  ruthless with themselves and others. They are not war-weary. The own life does not count anything, and praise will be received in another world. Woe to those enemies who are captured by them, the international convention of war is unknown and POW are a burden only. 

There is no balanced relationship between the immense costs of  bombardments and the results achieved, because the Talibans possess neither an armament industry nor masses of armour.  There is an obvious lack of lucrative targets.

Victory needs fighters in a number which corresponds to the size of the country. However, even the Soviets failed and their 100,000 soldiers finally were compelled to withdraw by the Mujaheddins after ten years of fierce combat.  The “teeth” of modern Armed Forces require a vast “tail” of supporting arms.  Therefore, the overall strength, its costs and expenditure climb up very quickly to a gigantic amount. This armada has to be deployed over  a longer span of time in the region where employed, but where? The Soviet Union at least shared a common border with Afghanistan,  but the bases of the USA is far away.  Nowadays, Afghanistan is embedded by five neighbouring countries whose ethnologic arms reach deep into the Hindukoosh country. 

Their inhabitants, solemn believers of Islam as well, are far from being radical extremists but they do not receive much information about the world beyond their villages. They just feel the explosions and take these bombs and shells and the devastation caused as an attack against their religion. And they are told about a man, almost the whole world is hunting  for and who — despite the fact that he is of unbelievable wealth — shares their poor life. No wonder, that admiration for this unknown person is not far away. And then, any support for this foreign power becomes a dance on a wire rope for their hosting governments, a struggle for political survival.  Easily the antipathy can be stirred up to hatred: not even while praying in the little clay mosque during the Holy Month of Ramadan one can be safe. 

The reluctance and resistance in these neighbouring countries will increase quickly.  And the world-wide alliance against terrorism, which was a solid  foundation for justification, shows erosion. If Pakistan would cancel her support, the logistical carpet gets holes.  

What’s about the Northern Alliance? Its young soldiers look a bit peculiar in their new uniforms. They remind of the UCK army in Kosovo, supported at the beginning, but disarmed thereafter. It would be impossible to disarm an “Afghan UCK” if required later. 

If one accepts the judgement of the American president that those attacks of  September 11th  were acts of hostility and not condemnable criminal deeds, it also means that they were operations of a new kind of warfare. In this case one must think about their ethic evaluation because then terms like “mass murder and criminal” are no longer valid. This is not easy but one should be reminded that a certain number of politicians of Asian and African countries tried to achieve their aims by means of terrorism in their early career, however, later became honoured statesmen. 

Bush anticipated a long war against terrorism. Therefore, the destruction of the terror bases fostered by the Talibans could only be an  intermediate objective in this long war. 

But what’s about the next step and the next, but one operation?  There is a Muslim majority amongst the population in more than forty  countries all over the world and there are also many religious extremists.  Which country will be the next?  The Muslim Ummah was neither united in terms of religion nor politically  and even in future the likelihood of unity is very low, because the legacy of deep-rooted blood feuds amongst various groups. But despite such obstacles, the Muslim community accepted at least limited pacts in order to defend against those who threatened their belief. 

As it was stated before, even the Talibans can be defeated, but such a victory, however, would be neither cheap nor easy. And by no means, the  international terrorism would be defeated, perhaps not even weakened.  And that leads to the question about the logic and sense of such a victory. During all the centuries of mankind a certain kind and level of terror existed, organized and individual. The concept of completely extinguishing this lash  remains self-deception and Utopia.

But terrorism can be contained successfully if its nutrient is dried out and  its manifold reasons are  reduced and controlled, especially by massive financial and economical means. As soon as possible this struggle must be put on a broad basis  instead of placing confidence in a dubious military victory. The time is short, because the stability of the impressive alliance  amongst the world community starts getting weaker.

First published in German: Schleswig-Holsteinischer Zeitungsverlag 24937 Flensburg 3rd November 2001- page 4 - 

About the author

Born in 1941; joined the Army in 1961 (Armoured Corps), 1975 Staff College Quetta; 1980-1984 Military Attache at the Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany in Islamabad; MOD, Brigade Commander; Higher Command & Staff Course UK 1990; 1991-1994 Military Attache in Saudi Arabia (incl. Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, UAE and Yemen as well);1996 IFOR and 1997/98 Deputy Chief Plans & Policy HQ SFOR in Sarajevo; retired in autumn 2000.