Ten tough months for

Gen. Musharraf

Columnist SULTAN AHMED looks at the immediate future for the President

The first ten months of this year, ending with the anticipated landmark October, can be very tough for Gen. Pervez Musharraf. He is the key decision-maker in the all important political sphere now, and this is the year of making very vital decisions.

The Supreme Court of Pakistan has set October 2002 as the deadline for holding the general elections and returning the country to the democratic path. And Gen. Musharraf has reaffirmed time and again he would honour that verdict.

Would he honour that verdict in letter and spirit or go about that formally to fulfil the minimum expectations of the court, remains to be seen. On his part Gen. Musharraf as well as Gen. Naqvi, who heads the National Reconstruction Bureau as the brain-trust of the military regime, are keeping their plans close to their chest. They would like the people and the political parties know only bit by bit how they propose to return the country to democracy.

There is also the distinct possibility that while they know what they want to do, or like to do, they do not yet know how to go about it in a manner that does not affront or alienate the political parties and the people as a whole. Are they hence groping in the political dark?

But what they are categorical about is they do not intend to form an interim government, although various names have been mentioned as possible Prime Minister, including Shaukat Aziz and Mohammadmian Soomro, Governor of Sindh. The fact is the military regime does not need an interim government for the next ten months. If there is an interim government the military regime would have to accommodate the wishes of that cabinet in respect of the general elections and other political decisions which the generals may not like to do.

But before coming to grapple with the major political issues the government has to cope with the fall-out of the change in Afghanistan and lay the foundations of a new relationship with the post-Taliban leaders there. The military confrontation with India has also to ease a great deal, if not come to an end conclusively. And that is going to take sometime as India is avoiding any formal talks with Pakistan. While India ridicules Pakistan for not being a democracy or being ruled by military commanders, is it now going to adopt a policy that is helpful for the early and smooth return of the country to the democratic order. It is said Iran had been having general elections despite its confrontation with the US or war with Iraq. But the confrontation with India is far worse than what Iran faced particularly after India played havoc with Pakistan in 1971.

On his part Gen. Musharraf has extended his own term as chief of the army staff indefinitely and announced he would continue as President after October, 2002, as well. Even if he continues to be President he has to take a number of crucial decisions.

The first question is what kind of constitution is he going to make? What kind of power sharing does he propose with the elected representatives of the people or the winning political parties? What kind of general elections does he propose. And how does he propose to get himself elected as President instead of being described as a self-appointed head of state.

Gen. Ziaul Haq as the military ruler had proposed a two-way power sharing between himself and the elected representatives in 1985. But now Gen. Musharraf proposes a three-way power sharing among himself as President the other top military commanders and the elected representatives of the people.

Gen. Zia had toyed with the idea of a setting up a National Defence Council to serve as a buffer between the military supremo as top ruler and the elected representatives of the people, and then given that up. Meanwhile, he had arrogated to himself a very large measure of authority through the controversial Eighth Amendment.

But Gen. Musharraf now proposed a three-way power sharing with the National Defence Council in the middle with substantial authority in the area of policymaking as opposed to the day-to-day matters the elected government would be dealing with.

If as a result Gen Musharraf leaves too little authority with the elected representatives the political parties as a whole may reject the new constitution and create a major constitutional crisis. And they may be joined by the numerous religious parties not happy with the government’s current Afghan policy. And that kind of confrontation will not be good for the Armed Forces, the government and the country.

To avoid such prospects Gen. Musharraf and his key generals had tried to form a new political party or take over the Pakistan Muslim League through Mian Azhar. But he failed to mobilize enough strength or to attract enough number of senior PML leaders. That move has hence been given up, for at least the time being.

Meanwhile, the military rulers are said to throw their weight behind some of the small political parties like Imran Khan’s Tehrik-i-Insaf and Farooq Leghari’s Millat Party. And the new party created by Omar Asghar Khan, who has resigned as Federal Minister, Qaumi Jhamhoori Party, is also said to have strong official backing. And the new Sindh Democratic Alliance with former Sindh official Imtiaz Shaikh is also supported by the military government.

Meanwhile, the government is having negotiations with the PPP to associate the former ruling party with the new set up minus Benazir Bhutto, chairperson of the party. Finally formal contact between the military government and Ms Bhutto has been established in Dubai.

Meanwhile, the prospect of Asif Zardari, incarcerated husband of the former premier, coming out of jail after four years is real. He has been given bail in all five cases against him. But immediately prior to his release the government came up with yet another case and so he is still in jail. And yet he is expected to be released soon to face his trials from outside the jail.

It is said that if the negotiations with the PPP succeed Makhdoom Amin Fahim may become the prime minister, but Benazir Bhutto is now said to be not in favour of the Makhdoom. She would prefer to be allowed to come back to lead the party by sitting at home and become the prime minister for a third time. If that is not possible she would like someone more acceptable to her like Aftab Shahban Mirani to become the prime minister as her nominee.

Meanwhile, former military commanders like Admiral Manzoor and Air Marshal Wiqar Azim are let off following plea bargaining while political leaders like Aftab Sherpo are being arrested on charges of corruption. The people expect all the corrupt elements, whether they are politicians, members of the judiciary or the military commanders to be treated alike instead of arguing some persons should be given a second chance.

The mode of elections also gives rise to many questions. It is said the regime prefers Proportional Representation to the first past the post system which is rather unsatisfactory. If so, what kind of PR system does it want? Is it based on party lists in its entirety or part list-based and part direct elections. And what is to be the cut off point — 10 per cent, eight per cent or five per cent for denying small parties which get less that percentage of votes, seats in the assemblies? A long national debate may be essential before decisions in this regard are taken instead of the generals imposing what they deem right on the people as a whole.

Is the number of the electoral constituencies in the country going to be doubled? Or is one third seats more being created in the national and provincial assemblies for women? If so will women have two votes instead of one for men and they will participate in the general elections and then in the elections for women’s seats?

Delimitation of such a large number of constituencies will take a great deal of time and that may not be completed smoothly in the next six months to enable the candidates file their nomination papers in time.

The problem in Pakistan is not under-representation of the people as much as misrepresentation. The quality of the representation has been very disappointing. Will more seats mean better representatives or will it be a case of more of the same and a self-defeating exercise? Why not reduce the representation for males and increase the representation for women?

The Punjab Assembly with its over 275 representatives is far larger than the National Assembly with its basic membership of 217 and yet the Assembly in Lahore is not effective or more representative than the National Assembly. The number of working hours which the legislators put in and the quality of their labour and the efficiency of the standing committees also matter. The time now is for improving the quality of the representation than merely expanding the number of members.

The most important decision which Gen. Musharraf has to take is how is he going to get himself elected? Will he do that before the general elections or after? It may be difficult for him to get himself elected after the general elections and so he may prefer to get himself elected before October. If he wants to do that before October what will be his electoral college? Will that be the local bodies in the manner Ayub Khan used his Basic Democracies? He has so far denied he would be using the local bodies as electoral colleges. But if he wants to promote and strengthen a king’s party in the general elections he would need to contest and win the elections for his office prior to that.

Meanwhile as the election season nears the political parties are drifting apart. The Alliance for Restoration of Democracy has become weaker as the PPP at times stays away from its meeting as it did on December 27. And now the convenor of the ARD Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan has resigned. He is being persuaded both by the PPP and the PML to withdraw his resignation.

Meanwhile, a long list of minor and not too minor political leaders are being mentioned as a possible prime minister. Among them are Farooq Leghari, Imran Khan, Mohammadmian Soomro and even Imtiaz Shaikh and the list is likely to increase in length as time passes.

What Gen. Musharraf and his generals propose is more of a Presidential Government than a parliamentary system as they have in Sri Lanka. It was President Kumaranatunga who attended the SAARC summit in Kathmandu instead of the newly elected prime minister. The issue now is what kind of the future constitutional set up the generals will come up with and how will they make that acceptable to the people and the bypassed political parties?