Past, Present, Future Interlinked

Columnist Lt Col (Retd) ZAMAN MALIK discusses the chain of events that have led to the present crisis.

We live in an epoch when for the first time in history, predictions of world catastrophe are in the air and weigh heavily on all. Modern man is to an unprecedented degree self-conscious and, therefore, conscious of history. He peers eagerly back into the twilight out of which he has come in the hope that its first beams will illuminate the obscurity into which he is going, and conversely, his aspirations and anxieties about the path that lies ahead quicken his insight into what lies behind.

Past, present, and future are linked together in endless chain of history. Besides, history also repeats itself. Everybody knows that for a future set-up in Afghanistan a meeting of all concerned is going to be held in Berlin shortly. The set-up so formed according to UNSC resolution 1378 will be required to form a broad based provisional government observing the principles highlighted therein. There are many who have little knowledge as to why, in the first place, Afghanistan came to be destroyed in the 1980s. If all concerned maintained the same tendencies, it would once again, not only result in the redestruction of the dust bowl of Afghanistan, but also invite Armageddon, given the extraordinary state of the art technology acquired and tested at vast scale, at the expense of the Muslims, by the sole super power.

We can see Russia, CIS, India and Iran, as usual, supporting the Northern Afghanistan. India has been unequivocal in its continued assistance and support of Northern Alliance, because she has long been seeking to thwart Pakistan’s ambition to create a defensive Islamic bloc stretching from Pakistan to Central Asia. Now they have moved their embassies to Kabul, immediately after it was occupied by the North, without caring to wait for the outcome of the Berlin negotiations. But, what about the OIC holding a quick conference/meeting to declare their position after the outcome of the forthcoming meeting at Berlin? Will the USA and Russia both forgo the very promising long-term economic advantages once again? They must learn from their past experiences and exploit Oil and Gas deposits or resources. India will of course follow Israel to weaken OIC links by creating troubles for Pakistan here in this region, given her instinctive abhorrence towards anything good that might possibly be accruing for Pakistan. However, Pakistan enjoys a privileged position, thanks to its geographical location. She can permit Russia to use her seaports, provided it (Russia) announces its disassociation with the harmful designs against Pakistan, that it shared with India.

The world has landed into the iron grip of recession once again after 1930s. Fundamental causes of all problems, Russia must also have realised better than what it could in the 1980s, are financial and economic. In view of the horrendous turbulence obtaining from every where, spreading despondence day and night, as a result of daily contradicting News and Views, let us recall only about which we are certain, to have the record put straight, as insight into what lies behind, can also help us have a clearer insight into future.

The conflict of 1980s, was a product of the Great Game, of the fear of the Soviet Union, that if the USA were to establish a hold in Afghanistan, its Southern provinces would be exposed and vulnerable to attack. Both the Soviets and the US poured weaponry and other resources into Afghanistan on a vast scale, particularly, in 1980s. They also strengthened political movements that had relatively little indigenous support and that relied for their fighting strength, at least in part, in men, who were willing to fight for a wage. The failure of various movements in Afghanistan to form a government created conditions for genuine mass movement to emerge. The mass movement of Taliban, offered the carrot of potential stability to countries with interests in Afghanistan, particularly, Pakistan and USA. To the extent that these countries provided support, both during the Soviet period and since the emergence of the Taliban, they were to bear continuing responsibility for what was happening in Afghanistan.

The permanent occupation of Middle East by USA, after the success of operation ‘Desert Storm’ in 1991, however, created grave apprehensions among the Muslims, with regard to the future designs of the USA, that seems to be more dangerous than those of the Soviets. After that, every Muslim in the world, became skeptical of the US designs against the Muslim civilization.

The Russian desire for a warm water port had been undisguised for a century. With largest Naval fleet and with advanced technology, Soviet’s could easily create conditions favourable for a Marxist take over of countries across Afghanistan. For years, Afghanistan had been dreaming of a corridor to Indian Ocean in the form of ‘Pakhtoonistan’. For Soviet’s Azad Balochistan, were to involve territories of Iran and Pakistan and a portion of Afghanistan, which would be accepted by the government of Afghanistan, for seeing her dream come true.

The outline for the invasion of Afghanistan was finalised by March 1979. By the fall of 1979, the rebels had virtually controlled 21 out of 28 provinces of Afghanistan and the government was in shambles. Islamic fervour in Iran could well have stimulated the rebels to completely withdraw the Marxist government. The vacuum thus created would have been exploited by the West. Communist government, for the first time, apprehended its defeat, which Soviet’s had not learned to accept or tolerate. The chances of outside assistance to Pakistan by China, the USA, and the Islamic world could not be ignored.

Moscow’s intentions appeared clearly to cement Afghanistan firmly in Soviet Orbit and at the same time establish a fiction of legitimate Independent government. According to Barbak Karmal, the Soviet Union was supplying 80 percent Afghanistan’s foreign aid requirements in addition to building widespread infrastructure.

Soviet Union’s international image, like that of the US after its bombardment of the civilian population in October 2001, was severely damaged. In military sphere, as usual, US concluded a pact with Pakistan to strengthen its defence forces as a deterrent to a possible Soviet aggressive designs. Soviets continued to maintain military pact ‘CIS’ with the Central Asian States, now confronting the Pushtoon majority of the Southern Afghanistan. However, without exaggeration, they have been and will always be fighting more bitterly amongst each other due to ethnic/sectarian divides, than against even the devil.

The Taliban movement can be seen as product of the conflict that originated in the 1978 socialist coup and the subsequent Soviet invasion, of people’s weariness with continued infighting and their disappointment with resistance leaders who failed to unite and form a stable government.

The dilemmas as to how far to ignore or seek a counter human rights abuses, of greater or lesser severity, in negotiating access to the population to meet humanitarian needs will always continue to be faced. Who represents the vast majority of the Afghanistan’s Pushtoons, is not clear as yet. May be, King Zahir Shah, himself being the rightful aspirant to head the future ‘broad-based transitional government’ of Afghanistan, will himself be nominating someone for it, during the forthcoming conference in Berlin. Those who call themselves as ‘Northern Alliance’ might be one in so far as military objectives are concerned but they can never be one in political objectives. The situation will continue to be unreliable which might result in renewed tussle between the USA and Russia. Already, a number of kingdoms of the War-Lords have come up within no time, reviving the old memories that paved the way for according cordial welcome to Taliban. Here, at this point US was quite happy with this development, because the very alliance had conflicted more casualties on the people of Afghanistan, than they had suffered in war against Soviets. How can the peace be established, so as to carry out reconstruction etc., unless and until the people of Afghanistan forget about what has been happening in the Arab countries after the Operation Desert Storm? Like what has been happening there to exploit the Oil resources by the Colonial powers, is being perceived to be happening in the North as well. Sickening uncertainty will gradually regain momentum rendering the Operation Enduring Freedom, liable to collapse, before it arrives at logical conclusion. The people have to be educated in modern knowledge of all kinds, fast enough, to understand what is being done in the region. This alone and not the rotten policy of ‘Divide and Rule’ will work here. Russia, China are great Veto powers sitting adjacent to the CIS, who would naturally not allow the benefits tilt in favour of only one power, like that of the Middle East. This is the insight derived from past.

Taliban made Islam look like terrorism. If the US and EU agree to share the planet with other nations, with other human beings; share their loves and griefs and stories and songs and sorrows and their rights, like they do for their own peoples, the phenomenon of terrorism may subside to that extent. As long as the Muslim world is not convinced that it is not being subjected to ‘Huntington’s Clash of Civilisations’, the terrorism in one form or the other will continue to emerge across the globe. Can America ensure infinite justice just by rhetorics, while for instance, Albright as US Secretary of State, were to say in reply “It was a very hard choice” but that, all things considered, “we think the price is worth it”. She was asked what she felt about the fact that 500,000 Iraqi children had died as a result of US economic sanctions, imagine! UN Security Council is a political institution. It is being driven by the dread of NATO. If terrorism is indeed required to be liquidated, then Juridical rather than political considerations must be made Supreme. Now the International Court of Justice can do only what is decided for it through the Security Council/by the parties concerned. Here lies the rub that needs to be rectified if terrorism has to be eliminated. Did peace and harmony really prevail while Kofi Annan was being honoured with the Nobel peace prize for the same? Self-delusions can only precipitate the reality of the catastrophe which is very much in the air.