Close Season for Afghanistan

Col (Retd) DIETER KILIAN discusses the situation in Afghanistan.

For two weeks Hamid Karzai and his transitional government  has been in power now, responsible for Afghanistan’s future. The Talibans have been banished  and it is time now  for this tortured country and its people to close the hunting season. However, the prospect is gloomy. The first phase of this war against international terrorism is already twice as long as the 1991 war against Iraq and the results resemble: the Gulf war deliberated Kuwait, the “Saddam problem”, however, remained unsolved. The war against terrorism liberated Afghanistan from the cruel Taliban regime, but neither Bin Laden nor the majority of his fighters were captured.

Certainly, President Bush had announced a long and protracted war but  his was meant for the overall time required to defeat  terrorism in total. But a solid and convincing concept — beyond military means — focused and aimed at extinguishing the roots and causes of  terrorism are not in sight. In the contrary, more and more countries adopt  the American example “bombs against terrorists”. War against terrorism must not be abused as a new  tool  to solve deep-rooted conflicts by mere military power. In the Near East region, week by week probably  more potential terrorists are “born” than killed in Afghanistan, created by the policy of Israeli Prime Minister Sharon which seems to be out of step. And dark clouds now overshadow the nuclear  powers India and Pakistan for another time.

Despite this, at least for the Afghanistan nation, the balance is positive: it gets the chance for a completely new start. If everything develops without interference, there will be free elections in 2004  for the first time after  31 years. A heavy burden, but also great expectation lies on the shoulders of the transitional government. But the success also depends on a wise attitude of the Western world. No doubt, it supported the political midwifery and it will also remain the paymaster for some time. For the third time after Kuwait and Bosnia, Western countries saved a Muslim country  from a serious danger blaming those who want to construct a so-called clash of cultures.

But especially because of these reasons  Western politicians should refrain from patronizing the Afghan government like foster-parents and exaggerated hopes.

In this context one has to point at three major sources for misunderstanding in Western countries which have to be avoided by all means:

1. Afghanistan will not become a model for democracy in Western sense. All attempts so far, capitalistic and socialistic, to get rid of old traditional structures, failed.

2. Afghanistan will remain an Islamic core nation with all its various, sometimes even extreme movements. This must be respected by all means.

3. And also the role of women will follow patterns different to expectations of some protagonists of            feminism. The attractive ladies who shared the negotiation table in Germany and who will be also             members of the new cabinet create an illusion, a phantom which does not correspond with the             Afghan reality. In order not  to be misunderstood, the vast potential of women in all fields is a valuable gift for each nation and must not be wasted, especially from an economical point of view. Countries which neglect  female education and professional capacity by whatever reasons have a  limited future — the Taliban regime is an example. But enhancing the role of women in a society  takes time measured rather  in decades than  years and Western countries should not  blame traditional cultures for not adopting their pattern unchanged and rapidly.                         

The hopeful attempt, to resettle this fragile creature called peace, been extinguished in Afghanistan                          for  long times, will be only successful if the widespread weaponry of all opponents remains silent now.

In the first instance this is valid for the former war parties: the Northern Alliance, the various groups of Taliban and those Al Qaida fighters. Control is an indispensable prerequisite: no easy mission for the UN-peace-keeping force ISAF; there will pass some additional weeks until it gets its planned operational strength. The Security Council decided late but Kabul also was reluctant. Thus this UN force with its poor  4,500 soldiers will be by far not so strong as it is required by the size of Afghanistan alone. In Bosnia & Herzegovina, thirteen times smaller, more than 60,000 troops were deployed in order to guarantee the armistice and even now there are 18,000 soldiers on the ground for stabilization purposes. The geographical restriction of the operational area on the capital Kabul itself seems half-hearted and a mistake.

But also the USA must refrain from continuing her attacks by air and ground forces. The reasons for this fierce battle are well understood by all who saw this 11th-September-Horror-Vision, killing thousands of innocent people of many religions, races and nations. So far, Washington refuses all such intentions, continuing the hunt for Bin Laden and his fighters. It may sound cynically, but  the toll of the wars in Europe between 1914 and 1945 exceeds these figures by far and despite this legacy, Europe succeeded in reconciling former hostile nations and in establishing a common future in peace simultaneously  honouring these millions of casualties by such a development.

It is a contradiction to have a fighting force and a peace-keeping force side by side in one country. The continuation of the American military operations for an unlimited span of time, uncontrolled by Kabul, will weaken the reputation of the new government, because it does not possess its full sovereignty. This can be easily used by those who want to discredit Hamid Karzai as a puppet of  the USA. It also seems to be necessary to reassess the effectiveness of this three months large-calibre hunt by air. A fast stabilization of Afghanistan is an important milestone of  the overall war against terrorism and should have, therefore, a high priority also for the USA. 

The holy month of Ramadan is gone but its maxim remains valid beyond its time frame for all those who want a permanent peace in Afghanistan:  moderation for  the sake of peace.