Mounting tensions with India

Patron Lt Gen (Retd) SARDAR FS LODI discusses the growing crisis with our unreasonable neighbour.

Tension between India and Pakistan continues to rise as India moves her troops from peacetime locations to battle positions near the Pakistan border. It is reported that she has positioned extra troops near the line of control in Jammu  and Kashmir to give them an offensive capability, probably with the intention of taking action under the pretext of ‘hot pursuit’. This would involve crossing the line of control and attacking the so-called “terrorist bases’ with the intention of destroying them. Having done so India would be tempted to retain these areas as part of Indian-held Kashmir under the excuse of preventing any further attacks on Indian-held territory. This would be contrary to the dictum evolved during the Clinton Administration of not changing the line of control. This was with reference to the Kargil episode.

India has also moved troops to the working boundary near Sialkot. This is a defensive and offensive measure. Defensive because it safeguards India’s long and vulnerable line of communication passing close to the working boundary. Along this road, passes all the logistic support required by a force of about 700,000 Indian troops and para-military forces deployed in Indian-held Jammu & Kashmir. The move is offensive in nature because it places troops close at hand for any offensive against Sialkot and possible operations beyond to cut the main Pakistan line of communications at Gujranwala. India tried the offensive in this sector in two previous wars with little success.

What is ominous is the movement forward, of India’s strike forces. Two-thirds have been moved to the desert opposite Bahawalnagar to Rahimyar Khan and area further south. This would be based on Bikaner and Jaisalmer in India. A similar military manoeuvre was initiated by India under the pretext of a “training exercise’ about 11 years ago when the Indian Army Chief at the time the late General Sundarjee called it exercise “Brass Tacks’. This was meant to sever Pakistan’s North South communications at its most vulnerable area where it passes close to the Indo-Pak border. The Indian plan had to be given up because Pakistan’s counter-moves posed a potent threat to India’s Punjab, which was not politically acceptable to the Government of India. At that time General Sundarjee forgot all about crossing the Indo-Pak border and moved his forces northward in some hurry.

One third of India’s strike forces have been moved to the Indian Punjab province to provide safety to its base by catering for any counter moves by Pakistan. The present aggressive deployment of Indian strike formations is an improvement on General Sundarjee’s plan. The Indian  Defence Minister Mr George Fernandes announced, certainly with great satisfaction that move forward of India’s missile forces to battle locations had been completed. He was referring to the short-range surface-to-surface missile Prithvi, which is capable of using nuclear warheads. The longer range Agni missile was being prepared, the minister said.

India has started laying mines along certain sectors of the Indo-Pak border as 20 Indian soldiers were killed and about five injured when a mine burst occurred accidentally on December 28, 2001. This accident took place around 7.30pm (7pm PST) near a border post in Gamnewala sector of  Shahgarh, 70 kilometers or so from Jaisalmer  town in Rajasthan. The mines were obviously being layed during the hours of darkness. Shahgarh sector is in the southern portion of the bulge of land jutting over Pakistan and is approximately opposite to our towns of Sukkur and Khairpur. It is evident that India wishes to block some sectors to our possible reprisal in the area, when she takes the offensive. Pakistan had launched an offensive into India in this sector during the 1971 Indo-Pak war. Though it did not make as good progress as expected, it certainly thwarted India’s offensive to capture Rahimyar Khan, which was already on the ground and moving forward under air cover. It was a surprise and a setback to Indian plans in the area.

Over and above the large-scale ground moves, the Indian Air Force has been alerted and moved to her forward bases, ready for immediate action. The Indian Navy has also alerted and some of its units are reported to have moved into the Arabian Sea. While all this activity was taking place India withdrew her High Commissioner from Islamabad, asked the Pakistan High Commission at New Delhi to reduce its staff by 50 per cent. Over flights by Pakistan  commercial aircraft over India have been banned, and road and rail traffic between the two countries has been brought to a stop. Pakistan was forced to take reciprocal action by banning Indian commercial aircraft from over flying Pakistan, and asking the Indian High Commission at Islamabad to reduce its staff by 50 per cent. The High Commission staff in both countries has been asked to remain in the respective capitals and not to move outside.

The reason for all these military and other moves by India is to strike against Pakistan for harbouring terrorists who attacked the Indian Parliament on December 13, 2001. According to Indian perception this incident gives India the right to attack another country taking the analogy of the US attack on Afghanistan. The attack on the Indian Parliament seems to have been carried out by five gunmen who according to Delhi police investigation first headed for Delhi airport, later changed their mind and entered the Parliament compound. Before they could enter the building they were all shot dead, in the firefight seven Indian policemen were also killed. All those arrested are probably from Indian-held Kashmir but India insists that those killed were all Pakistanis. One fails to understand how India came to that conclusion and also that Pakistan was behind the attack.

India also blamed Lashkar-e- Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad both operating in Indian-held Jammu and Kashmir, but wanted Pakistan to arrest their leaders and curb their activities. Pakistan has asked for some proof of its involvement in the attack and even offered a joint inquiry to find out who was responsible. India refused both and continued to insist that Pakistan was behind the attack. The United States also offered to send over some FBI personnel to help in the inquiry, this too the Indian government refused to accept. This is a dangerous situation where India seems bent upon using the military option without trying to ascertain the truth about the shooting incident in the compound of India’s federal parliament.

India’s unreasonable attitude seems to have been understood by the United States as well. The TIME reported in its Special Double Edition of December 31, 2001 / January 7, 2002: “The United States urged both sides to calm down. Hoping to mollify the Indians, President George W. Bush ordered the freezing of Lashkar-e-Taiba’s assets in the U.S. (The U.S. had already included Jaish-e-Muhammad on its list of terrorist organizations.) Bush denounced both militant groups –but, so as not to implicate Pakistan, described them as “stateless” organizations.” While on an official visit to China, President General Pervez Musharraf expressed regret  at India’s “arrogant and knee-jerk response.”

Many analysts of current events are of the firm belief that India’s belligerent attitude has less to do with the shooting incident in the compound of India’s parliament but is intertwined with the attack on the United States on September 11 and its aftermath. Close U.S, strategic relationship with India has been kept on hold if not dropped altogether and Pakistan brought into the “driving seat” as an important front-line state in the coalition against international terrorism. Important world leaders have been visiting Islamabad and offering their support to Pakistan in its fight against terrorism. This has not been to the liking of India, which has been busy ever since in maligning Pakistan and trying to associate her with terrorist activity in the region and beyond, but seems to be failing in her effort and in utter frustration is threatening to use the military option.

India seems to forget that in fact her hands are tainted as she has used force against all her neighbours including China at one time or the other. She has also  applied land blockade and coercion in her effort to dominate small countries like Nepal. She has also exported terrorism on a large scale. Public memory is not so short as to forget that India recruited, trained and financed terrorists and sent them inside the former East Pakistan to destabilize a sovereign independent state. India has been operating training camps on its soil where Tamil Tigers have trained to overthrow the legitimate government of Sri Lanka. These are facts known the world over. After September 11 attacks in the United States and the formation of an anti-terrorist coalition India found it prudent to curtail her support for the militants of Tamil Tigers which forced these terrorists to declare a three-months ceasefire.

Is war a valid option that India is constantly harping on these days or is it a mere coercive tactics being employed to gain further concessions from the United States as a price for pulling back from the brink of a nuclear holocaust. India seems to be losing all diplomatic and moral sanity in trying to stab Pakistan in the back, while her forces are employed on her western border on behalf of the coalition. They are doing a good job in preventing the former Taliban and AI Qaida armed personnel from escaping into Pakistan. While India is taking aggressive measures Pakistan in using utmost restraint in her dealings with India. This should not be taken as a token of weakness. If war is thrust onto Pakistan it will give a good account of itself even on the conventional level.

Diplomatic options have not been exhausted so far and must be employed to reduce the tensions that have been generated in Indo-Pak relations. A meeting at the foreign ministers level is an urgent requirement. This could be followed by a meeting between President General Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee during the SAARC summit being held in Nepal on January 4. These meetings will create a desire for further dialogue to solve the outstanding problems between the two countries. War, as an option should be detested for the good of the people of South Asia, now and in the future.