L. K. Advani’s elevation

Patron Lt Gen (Retd) SARDAR F.S. LODI looks at ominous advent to total leadership of a most virulent muslim hater.

Mr Lal Krishan Advani has been appointed Deputy Prime Minister of India recently. Although this move along with a major reshuffle of the Indian federal cabinet that followed is purely a domestic issue yet all that happens in India ultimately has a bearing on Pakistan. In fact, some political and other moves made by the Indian government are often motivated by a purely anti-Pakistan stance. That shows how deep-routed is the animosity between the two neighbours in South Asia.

Mr Advani is considered a hawk on relations with Pakistan and heads the hawkish group in the Indian cabinet. He is also a hard line advocate of Hindu revivalism and was present on the scene while the centuries-old Babri mosque was being demolished by his followers. As deputy Prime Minister Mr Advani will continue to be the minister of Home affairs (Interior) and also hold charge of Kashmir as before. His appointment as number two in the cabinet waiting to become the Prime Minister is not likely to bode well for future good relations between India and Pakistan.

It may be recalled that the Indian Prime Minister took the initiative and invited President Musharraf to India for talks. Press reports had indicated at the time that both, the politician and the soldier got along very well. But the final statement was actively sabotaged in many ways by the hawks in the Indian cabinet led by Mr Advani himself supported by his like-minded colleagues. Consequently, the dialogue could not make any further progress and had to be abandoned.

It may also be recalled that after India detonated five nuclear devices in May 1998 and before Pakistan had followed suit, Mr Advani’s attitude and stance towards Pakistan changed completely. After, two additional army divisions had been moved into Indian-held Kashmir Mr Advani made some bellicose statements. Among other things he is reported to have said that Pakistan should now understand the new realities on the ground. In other words India was now a nuclear power able to dictate her terms and impose her will against her small neighbour. I had visited the Line of Control in Kashmir a few months later and was informed by the officers that Indian troop concentrations had been observed close to the Line of Control and artillery ammunition had been brought forward. These were ominous signs of impending Indian intentions of attacking Azad Kashmir territory.    

All this, however, changed and Indian preparations came to an abrupt halt three weeks later when Pakistan also tested five nuclear devices sending a clear and harsh signal to India of her nuclear status. Stephen P. Cohen a US specialist on South Asia put it very well when he wrote that India’s aggressive stance towards Pakistan, in three weeks changed to a whisper. Now the realities on both sides of the Line of Control were no doubt visible to Mr Advani forcing him to hold his hand. A potential Indian threat was consequently averted.

Mr Advani who at 74 has often been considered to be the unofficial number two in the BJP-led coalition government in India. “Of course Advaniji has been number two from the very beginning,” said Mr Venkaiah Naidu India’s outgoing Rural Development Minister. “Now the Prime Minister has shown that he is a real number two and made him the deputy Prime Minister.” People feel that this appointment has clearly designated Advani the heir-apparent to the 77-year-old Mr Vajpayee, whose office in the previous month denied a report that his health was failing. The HINDU newspaper of India commenting on the change wrote: “The redesignation marks the beginning of a new phase, signalling the beginning of the end of the Vajpayee innings and the consecration of Mr Advani as the power behind the Prime Ministerial throne.”

Some opposition leaders in India feel that Mr L. K. Advani’s going up the political ladder would mark Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee’s political eclipse. “What has been de facto has now become de jure,” said Sitaran Yechury, a politburo member of the Communist party of India-Marxist. He felt that Advani’s appointment was clearly a sign that Vajpayee was increasingly getting marginalised and the BJP allies had become virtually impotent.

The congress party spokesman S. Jaipal Reddy said: “Becoming deputy Prime Minister is not so much a promotion for Advani as it is a demotion for Vajpayee.” He said Vajpayee’s is a coalition government only in name. The truth is that it is the BJP that makes the decisions. The opposition feels that the appointment of Advani also signifies that some of BJP’s allies that were said to be uncomfortable with Mr Advani’s image as a Hindu hawk had finally, after two years of supping with the BJP, come to accept the fait accompli. Or is it political expediency after tasting the fruits of power on the BJP bandwagon and where they could not have made it on their own. Either way the small parties in the alliance have decided to travel along the BJP path.

Mr V. P. Singh, director of the Centre for the study of Developing Societies, a think tank in Delhi said: “Advani is obviously on his way to becoming Prime Minister. An elevation was a test for the allies who failed to oppose it. The BJP has succeeded in its bid.” Some BJP allies have, however, dismissed the elevation of A. K. Advani as insignificant. This is obviously an attempt to save face in the public perception.

Lok Sabha MP Trilochan Kanungo of the Biju Janata Dal party said: “The Constitution does not provide for a deputy Prime Minister. The appointment is an internal arrangement and it is the Prime Minister’s prerogative to take such decisions.” The Telegu Desam party, the BJP’s biggest ally, echoed the same views. The veteran editor and commentator Mr Prem Shankar Jha said: “There was no real surprise in Advani’s appointment, Vajpayee is obviously in not very good health and the choice of Advani has established a clear hierarchy in the government.

But according to Samajwadi Party General Secretary and Rajya Sabha MP Amar Singh, the elevation of Mr Advani is a matter of grave concern. “Advani’s past makes us worry about the future since he has become the deputy Prime Minister, I am terribly anxious,” he said.

The new Indian hard line policy against Pakistan was evident after the major cabinet reshuffle with Mr L. K. Advani as the deputy Prime Minister. The new foreign Minister Mr Yashwant Singh was quick off the mark and immediately after taking over his new appointment and before he could be adequately briefed by his staff said while speaking to reporters: “Pakistan is reneging on its promise to rein in infiltration by militants into Indian territory.” He felt that the situation had gone back to before May 27, when Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf vowed not to allow any terrorism from his country’s soil. “He tried to escape from it (his promise) not once but three to four times. But the incidents in the past two to three days have proved that the situation has gone back to prior to May 27,” Mr sinha said.

The new Indian Foreign Minister went on to say: “We need to be very, very careful in our dealings with General Musharraf. Quite clearly we are looking not only at the assurances from Pakistan that infiltration will end permanently, we are also looking for visible and credible signs of that action.” He concluded by saying, “We have already said our response will depend on action on the part of Pakistan as far as this aspect is concerned.”

In an interview to the INDIAN EXPRESS newspaper immediately after taking over the new Indian Foreign Minister reiterated India’s hard stand towards Pakistan. “I regard cross-border terrorism as the core issue between India and Pakistan, not (the state of) Jammu and Kashmir.” Mr Sinha said. “The contours of a foreign policy are laid out and we need to take it forward.” Mr Sinha said another priority would be securing a permanent seat for India on the United Nations Security Council.

Two days after Mr L. K. Advani was appointed deputy Prime Minister, the Indian Army Chief General S. Padmanabhan thought it fit to issue his own warning to Pakistan. The General said New Delhi would be left with no option but to take “some action” if Islamabad did not end “cross border” infiltration into Indian occupied Kashmir. “My troops are there. Their troops are on there,” said General S. Padmanabhan as quoted by the Press Trust of India (PTI) news agency. “The reason for which we stood out there for six to seven months now is that we wanted this infiltration and cross-border terrorism to stop ... it continues,” he said.

Although India’s Deputy Chief of the Army Staff, Lt.General R. S. Kadyan had said something different on June 25, (before Mr Advani became deputy Prime Minister). while seeing off the new Indian contingent to the UN peacekeeping mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea, he had said in answer to a question that it was too early to discuss whether movement across the Line of Control in Kashmir has come down. “We will have to monitor the situation over a period of time before coming to any definite conclusion,” said Lt. General Kadyan. Yet on 4 July (after Mr Advani became deputy Prime Minister) barely a week later the Army Chief General Padmanabhan was firm in his belief that cross-border infiltration continues. It was obviously a politically motivated statement well beyond his own professional estimates.

The New Indian Foreign Minister and the Chief of India’s Army may well be spearheading Indian move towards a confrontation with Pakistan. It is the opinion of many that the elevation of Mr Advani is not good for the Muslims of India and for better relations with Pakistan. One can only hope that Mr Advani does not take South Asia towards confrontation and war, which would be catastrophic for the whole region.