Conundrums and opportunities

Contributing Editor Vice Adm (Retd) IF QUADIR explains the western reservations in the solution of South Asia’s problem.

The South Asian region is currently beset with a triangle of conundrums where the varying and often conflicting interests of the United States of America, Pakistan and India constitute its three sides. The current base of this triangle is the US decision to prosecute the international war against terrorism in Afghanistan to its finish and simultaneously to rebuild that country. Pakistan, while providing every assistance to this war but direct involvement, would in addition, like to continue with its policy of support for the promised right of the people of Kashmir to decide their own future. India, by a process of dubious support towards this US effort against international (anti-Islamic but not anti-Tiger or state sponsored) terrorism, aims to deny the people of Indian occupied Kashmir the same promised right and simultaneously to achieve leadership of South and Central Asia and the Gulf Area as the US surrogate. However, Pakistan with its nuclear capabilities and support for Kashmiri people remains the single visible thorn in the path of these Indian ambitions thus earning her India’s extreme and unrestrained ire. A strong and modern Pakistan Navy is another serious source of worry to India in respect of her hegemonic ambitions around the North Arabian Sea and Indian economic needs from countries of that area.

In the US itself, there are many who are suspicious of the strong conservative Islamic feelings held in Pakistan that ultimately translates into political power. For some odd reasons, to them the very thought of control of Pakistan’s nuclear forces passing under their hands, even in a democratic dispensation is an anathema. Therefore, the need of Western Oriented Gentlemen at the top even if it means a facade of democracy only or a complete surrender of democracy to other forces. Furthermore, a general consensus in the US is keen for a strong Indo-US strategic relationship, wanting India to become the leader of the Indian Ocean region but for the Ocean itself, which for obvious reasons must remain under American control. For one, US must have assured access from the sea to her increasing presence in Central Asia and the Gulf region. Presently, US military now have physical presence in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Central Asia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman in addition to a host of other locations all over the world. Some 13 air bases have been newly established in Central Asia. About 3,000 US army personnel reside in Kyrgyzstan, an unspecified but increasing number in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and further negotiations are in progress with Kazakhstan for military facilities. Diego Garcia and Pakistan, therefore, remain vital to US needs, both of which must remain a prickle for Indian ambitions.

President Clinton had earlier focused American attention towards developing relations with India in the economic field as his top priority but soon discovered the ground there neither substantial enough nor suitable to US investments. Washington has ever since concentrated on strengthening her relationship in the military field with that country. In Pakistan, the press and the media have paid scant attention to two other continuing important events. First, that US authorities while referring to Pakistan’s cooperation towards war against international terrorism have always praised or extolled the efforts and contribution of General Musharraf alone, but never of Pakistan as a country or its people, even the armed forces have not earned a shabash. This is reflective of the deep suspicion this country is held in American and Western minds. Further, even the appreciation granted to General Musharraf’s cooperation has been made known to be subject to a later appraisal of handing over of power to a civilian elected dispensation in October this year. The guidelines for the future civilian government have already been hinted at above. Thus, there are two separate swords perpetually hanging over the heads of Pakistan and of General Musharraf for continued ‘good’ behaviour into the future. Secondly, that in Washington’s political and diplomatic relations with Pakistan and India, while President Bush personally talks with the head of the Indian government on phone, it is usually the US Secretary of State who talks with Pakistan’s President.

Whatever good reasons for such a dichotomous approach, the world is bound to draw its own conclusions from this marked difference in US diplomatic behaviour with its two Asian partners against terrorism. In fact American and British pressure on General Musharraf to deliver on his words of 12th January this year has progressively mounted reaching a crescendo during the last week of May without a word of respite for the beleaguered Kashmiri people in Indian Occupied Kashmir, a virtual military jail and the cause of all hostility between the two neighbours for over half a century. According to the press and media Mr. Bush urged Pakistan’s president to “stop the incursions” of Islamic insurgents into Indian-administered Kashmir, while Mr. Putin deplored Pakistan’s decision to conduct new missile tests while encouraging Indian and Pakistani leaders to attend regional talks in Kazakhstan next month.

Amongst many United States interests and compulsions in our part of the world the most important is to exercise control over oils, minerals and other strategic materials in our region including Central Asia, Mideast and the sea and air routes through the Indian Ocean. This not only means additional resources for corporate giants but much more than that it provides US the leverage to regulate availability of strategic materials, economically as well as militarily, from this vast region to the rest of the world. In this manner the whole world remains at the mercy of United States of America. All the countries of our region except Iran welcome US access to this region and in Central Asia because each one of the country concerned fears, rightly or wrongly, domination by a stronger neighbour. India, without her saying so, is a major sufferer by this US presence being denied that overall hegemony she so passionately desires. However, by snuggling up to USA and supporting all her policies, some of which are opposed even by America’s allies of long standing and partners in NATO, India hopes to achieve her objectives of becoming the regional leader, ipso facto the viceroy for the region and obtain valuable scientific knowledge to catch up with China as well as a permanent seat in the Security Council. However, while supporting the build up of India as a strategic partner, one wonders whether Washington would be willing to place all its eggs in one basket, particularly when these eggs are more expensive and vital than the proverbial golden ones? In there lies the silver lining for Pakistan.

However, Pakistan must play its cards well while ensuring that Washington knows that Islamabad understands well the cards lying up its sleeve. But it needs internal unity first to able to resist pressures from outside or worse still suffer political destabilization. Pakistan’s position is further strengthened by the need of all the Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and Iran, to have an anchor in the East, by the need of Central Asian states to have an access to the sea not dominated by any of the regional powers or the West, and the secure direct access it provides China to the Indian Ocean. Russia too as it develops economically would soon enough find land access to India through Pakistan and by sea through Mekran ports to the rest of the Indian Ocean and Eastern Pacific highly profitable. India itself has much to gain from the land access she could have to Europe, Russia, Mideast and even China, only if she acquired the goodwill of Pakistan. But God, in His infinite mercy has provided Pakistan another great opportunity through the government of BJP in India to gain another political victory over that country. The first was the chance to demonstrate Pakistan’s nuclear capability in 1998 that now acts as a shield and deterrent to India’s conventional force superiority. Now, by sending our Ambassador back from Delhi during a moment of pique, BJP has provided Pakistan the prospect of keeping direct communications with India in a state of limbo or in suspended state of animation and talk to her through USA/Russia/China alone. India’s stand on no third party involvement has already been breeched by India herself when she approached USA and Russia to pressurize Pakistan on the matter of Kashmir. Now Islamabad has a splendid opportunity to turn this silver lining into a sunny day, knowing fully that Pakistan has sufficient lightening conductors to safely and quickly conduct any threatened Vajpayee lightening that strikes on bright days to where it rightfully belongs deep under the surface of earth. Now, India must talk to Pakistan through or in the presence of a third party only till our disputes starting with Kashmir are resolved.”