Powerful response to Agni tests

Contributing Editor Air Marshal (Retd) AYAZ AHMED KHAN encourages Pakistan to take up the Indian challenge.

Two missile tests within a week at a time when Indian and Pakistani armies are eye ball to eye ball, and nuclear armed ballistic missiles are zeroed at each other, is indicative of astonishing irresponsibility of Indian rulers. But why should India do the unthinkable while pushing Pakistan against the wall? What has India gained out of such recklessness?  The two armies with million and a half troops and over six thousand tanks and guns have been in the field since two months. The two air forces have deployed over one thousand five hundred air combat and strike aircraft at forward air fields facing each other. Hundreds of these aircraft are nuclear weapon carriers. Thousands of CAP’s have been flown by both the air forces since India created the hoax of war against Pakistan on December 13, 2001. The two armies have been trading artillery exchanges across the LOC in Kashmir on a daily basis, achieving nothing except loss of innocent civilians. BJP leaders have gone hoarse shouting lies and false allegations against our country. They have tarnished their own image. The world does not believe L.K. Advani, Atal Behari Vajpayee and the likes of them.

Now they have started firing ballistic missiles and SAM’s to intimidate and impress Pakistan. The public must be told about the status of Indian nuke fitted missiles, and what it plans to do with them. The 25th January 2002 test firing of the 700-kilometer range Agni III ballistic missile was the seventh test of IRBM Agni. The first four test firings could not accomplish the mission trajectory of 2500 km, and were labelled as failures. All the six Agni ballistic missiles tested between 22 May 1989-April and January 2001 could be used against Pakistan but were designed to destroy South and Central China. The timing of the 7th test and its range and capability proves that this test was Pakistan specific. It was carried out with an ulterior motive to intimidate and demoralize Pakistan. This Agni test is part of the coercive Indian diplomacy against Pakistan. It is designed to carry a powerful 20 to 200 kiloton warhead enough to wipe out Pakistan’s biggest cities. But India cannot use such a devastating weapon of mass destruction, without risking imminent peril to its own existence. So why this nuclear weapon brandishing? The Agni III test in the present situation is a threatening and intimidatory action in pursuit of the fatalistic diplomacy being followed by the BJP government to destabilize South Asia. The BJP leaders are more like terrorist suicidals wanting to destroy Pakistan while committing suicide.

The 700 KM range Agni III was launched on Friday January 25 from Chandipore in Orissa in the presence of Agni Programme Director R.N. Agarwal, Defence Minister George Fernandez, Vice Chief of Army Staff Lt. General Vijay Oberoi and Dr. V.K. Aatre, Science Advisor to the Indian Ministry of Defence. Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee while congratulating the “Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme” officials promised to pursue the Agni development plan with greater vigour. Fitted with a one thousand Kg “fission boosted” nuclear warhead, this Agni missile with a range of 700 km cannot reach China. It is unlikely to be used against Nepal, Bhutan, SriLanka or Bangladesh. Logically Pakistan is the planned target.

The governments of Pakistan, Peoples Republic of China, United States, France, Germany, Japan, UK and Spain have criticized and condemned the Indian Agni Ballistic Missile test. Spain being Chairman of the European Union asked New Delhi to exercise restraint. US Secretary of State General Colin Powell expressed shock and dismay at the Agni SSM test. Islamabad asked the international community to take note of Indian efforts to destabilize the region. The British government while regretting Indian decision to test fire Agni nuclear capable missile criticized India for sending “wrong signals within the region and beyond”. Foreign Secretary Jack Straw in a statement said that, “I regret India’s decision to test a ballistic missile, particularly in the light of the current regional tension”. But India has disregarded international protests. Indian attitude remains totally obdurate rash and insolent, because Western power, including the USA the sole super power have not gone beyond expressing regrets. For conflict seeking Indian rulers this global attitude is no more than appeasement of the regional bully. The BJP rulers are playing with fire, and the billion people of South Asia are at great risk. The one and quarter billion South Asians i.e. one fourth of the humanity may have to pay a heavy price for the follies of Indian leaders. The United Nations and the United States must realize that it is their responsibility to harness the Indian nuclear desperado.

Nirupama Rao spokesperson of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs justified most callously the timing of the Agni launch, saying that, “We do not view the test as sending a political message”. She said that besides informing all permanent members of the UN Security Council, Japan, Germany and Spain the Current EU President were also informed. The US has objected to Agni testing alleging that it is in violation of the MTCR regime and is a “political proliferation affront to the MTCR”. But India has brushed aside all protests. Nirupama Rao’s provided enough evidence of Indian bellicosity by claiming that the, “Agni test was undertaken in a non-provocative manner. It was a well thought out step in consonance with India’s security and defence posture, to validate the doctrine of no first use. It was to guarantee the capability of credible minimum deterrent”.

Agni testing is a story of failures. Agni I a two stage missile (planned range 2500 km) was test fired on May 22, 1989. The first stage rocket used solid-fuel booster motor of SLV-3 satellite launch vehicle. The second stage was liquid  propelled version of the Prithvi rocket. The 18 meter long, 7.5 ton Agni I was to carry a 1000 Kg nuclear warhead over 2500 km to devastate  South China. It employed a closed loop inertial guidance system, developed with German assistance. The test was a failure. The launcher loading time was excessive, and so was the CEP error. It was decided to incorporate several modifications and conduct more Agni test firings.

The second Agni I was test fired from the same launch pad at Chandipur, near Balasore in May 1992, but mission objectives could not be achieved. This test was also  a failure. Several modifications were incorporated in the guidance technology, and booster motor rocketry. The third Agni I test was conducted in February 1994 from the same place. It was a partial success. The dummy’s head fell into the Bay of Bengal after a flight of 1200 kilometers only. The mission flight plan was 2500 kilometers. After several more modifications the fourth Agni I test was conducted by the end of 1994. The test planned trajectory was 2500 kilometers. But the actual range achieved was 1450 kilometers only. By now hundred of millions had been spent, and desired results could not be achieved. In mid-1995 the Agni I programme was suspended, because of frustation and US pressure... During  the six years of unsuccessful testing, Agni lRBM was referred to as “technology demonstrator”. US had opposed the Agni programme as another lndian affront to the MTCR rgime. Agni l programme was suspended by the end of 1995. lndia may have decided to put Agni under wraps, until the larger issue to test nuclear warheads for its ballistic missiles was resolved                   

India at the time was under immense US pressure to sign the CTBT. India was firm at the time, as it is now, that it will not sign the CTBT unless the five nuclear powers i.e. the US, Russia, France, China and UK sign it. Pakistan understandably, will not sign the CTBT until India does.”

In March 1997 Prime Minister Deve Gowda said India would not give up the Agni missile, a position echoed in  July 1997 by Defence Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav. The BJP government on assuming office in March 1998 bluntly stated that it would, “exercise all options including the nuclear option”. It started beating nuclear drums. It was announced that a new version called Agni II IRBM with an extended range of 2500-3000 KM was under development. Solid-state propellant replaced the liquid propellant in the second stage rocket. It reduced the launch time from 12-18 hours to 15-30 minutes. This achievement was followed by the announcement that Agni II would be fitted with nuclear warhead.

On 11 April 1999 India test fired the Agni II missile. In this fifth Agni test, the missile splashdown was at 2000 Km (1250 miles ) in the Bay of Bengal. On 14 April Pakistan responded by test firing its Ghauri ll IRBM. Defence Minister George Fernandes soon after announced that the Agni missile was ready to go into production. The cost of each Agni II missile was estimated at Indian Rupees 35 crore i.e. US Dollars eight million each.

Although the Agni II could reach South China, it could not hit cities deeper inside China. In early 1999 work was started on a longer range — 3500 KM version of the missile to be called Agni III. It was China specific i.e. destruction of vital areas deep inside China was the aim. India is also contemplating development of 5000 Km variant of Agni III able to destroy all Chinese cities and other strategic targets in China, India has stated that the Agni II and III’s will carry a 200 kiloton ‘boosted fission’, war head. On January 11, 2001 India test fired the 6th Agni missile. This test was a success. So out of six test firings, four were failures and two were successful. After the two successful China specific tests series production was not started as claimed. So what went wrong?

According to Western sources, series production has yet to start. This is confirmed by the fact that on January 25, 2002 a shorter range Agni missile was “successfully” test fired. The fact that the Agni range has been shortened from 2500 KM to only 700 km, has created doubts about the Agni missile programme.

Some military analysts believe that the mission trajectory of 2500 to 3000 km is not achievable. This is unlikely to be true. The Agni programme stipulates missiles of 2500, 3000, 3500 and 5000 km range to hit deep in China. It is, therefore, clear that the 7000 KM Agni is Pakistan specific. It has been specially designed to destroy and devastate Pakistan. India is expected to continue testing  its short and intermediate range ballistic missile to improve their reliability, reaction time and performance. But will India ever use its nuclear armed missiles against Peoples Republic of China or Pakistan, knowing fully well that their response will wipe out India. Both Pakistan and China cannot ignore Indian nuclear and missile chauvinism. Powerful, collective and co-ordinated response must be given to dissuade the BJP government from its suicidal course.