Pakistan and Reconstruction of Afghanistan

Columnist M ZAFAR analyses the rebuilding of our neighbouring country.

There is a gleam in the eyes of our businessmen who see a bonanza just around the corner, in Afghanistan. Their optimism is based on a number of factors like natural access, historical and cultural affinity and old established business contacts. These factors provide immense advantages, however, the realists add a word of caution.

We cannot forget that the current situation has been brought about by the overturn through military means of a regime that was pro-Pakistan — the fact that Islamabad could not make much out of this is another matter. Successor Afghan government, despite its protestations, will have to cope with the factor of residual reservations against the ally of a largely discredited regime.

The other factor to remember is that in the world of realpolitik, spoils of war are received in proportion to the effort. UK’s contribution to American war effort is best understood in this context, as indeed should the Indian offer of troops and her bases be rationalised. The aim was to stake out Indian claims in the Afghan market alongside the important strategic considerations.

Pakistan’s role in the military operations was minimal and more or less involuntary. Our support was limited to intelligence sharing, permission to use of airspace and a few airstrips. Some commentators decried the ease with which the Government of Pakistan had acquiesced to American demands. They forget that Pakistan could have demurred only if it was prepared to risk its all active air defence capability and nuclear installations. The Americans would certainly have used force to secure air corridors to Afghanistan.

At the other end of the spectrum were people who thought that policy makers in Islamabad should have shown more mental agility and extended military support to anti-Taliban Pakhtoon leaders who were preparing for ground offensives in conjunction with the US airstrikes.  Such a course would be in pursuance of and in defence of Pakistan’s perfectly justifiable strategic and economic interests in Afghanistan. Imagine if wings led by Commanders Abdul Haq and Hamid Karzai had captured Kabul and Kandahar respectively what effect it would have had on Pakistan’s standing in post-war Afghanistan? No one can deny the difficulties inherent in such a course especially with the surfeit of leaders of obfuscated vision who claim to speak for the country but on pure merit such a course could be justified especially after the Mullahs of Kandahar had refused to listen to Pakistan’s entreaties for restraint and sent her envoys back wringing hands in despair.

Everyone hopes that reconstruction process in Afghanistan will start without much delay. However, it is dependent on a general political consensus between the tribes and establishment of the writ of the central government over the country. Much remains to be done in that regard. At the moment Afghanistan is divided into more or less independent fiefdoms with the government in Kabul controlling nothing more than the city itself. There is a possibility that the Loyae Jirga due to be convened this summer may restore unity and order among this disparate lot of people. If that does not come about tribes may pick up arms against each other and engage in endless bloodshed. That will also mean the end of Ahmad Shah Durrani’s Afghanistan but such a situation may not come to pass because of the Allies’ commitment to the unity of the country. A multi-national force composed of troops from Muslim countries is planned to be inducted to provide security and support to the regime. Contributing countries wish to be assured of minimal of goodwill and understanding between the tribes as a prerequisite to their troops taking up the job. It is only in the environment of assured security that the work of reconstruction can start.

In the first phase financial infrastructure will have to be put in place. It is fair to assume that the donor countries will provide financial services and Pakistan’s participation if any will be nominal. In the next phase rebuilding of tele-communications network, will be taken up. In this field Japan and European Union will be the leading players. Airfield construction will be taken up by British and US companies that have incomparable expertise and experience in the field. Building of road and bridges is one large sector that would be available to Pakistan but our entrepreneurs will face competition from Koreans and Indians. That leaves construction of homesteads and public buildings to house health, education and welfare facilities. Pakistanis should aim for this sector in which they will have huge comparative advantage especially in the Pushtun belt, but will require proper planning and research to create a niche. 

It may be useful for Pakistanis to concentrate on Pushtun belt. In the North the Russians and their allies the CIS countries are likely to hold the field. In Western Afghanistan Iran will be a major player. In fact it is already well established in Herat and adjoining five provinces. Iranians are also likely to dominate Hazara areas in the Central highlands. For territories south and west of Kandahar areas where Baloch tribes live, India will like to make a showing. In the context of US declared animosity with Iran, build up of pressure against Pakistan Chagai belt would make strategic sense. This leaves Pushtun belt, which offers opportunity to others including European Union, countries of Asia and of course Pakistan. The queue will be long and places will be granted in consideration of each competitor contribution to the war effort. Pakistan can hope for a middle place at best, which should be good enough.

Along with construction there will be plenty of opportunity for a range of industrial products. Goods produced in Pakistan can compete in the international arena. Skilled marketing should ensure us a fair share in automobile parts, pumps. motors, fans, cables, electric goods, plastic ware, textiles, garments, leather goods, farm and construction implements, domestic appliances, air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and the list goes on. Pakistanis must, however, not fall into the trap of false confidence and overrate the access factor. It is one of many but not the only factor that will affect trade with post-war Afghanistan.