Approaching the end of another era?

Contributing Editor Vice Admiral (Retd) Iqbal F Quadir sees the present situation as an endgame of the old era.

The last sixty years have been a kaleidoscope of dying eras of world history. Beginning with imperialism in the forties of the last century, it became the first casualty of the Second World War (WW II). That war also saw Western Europe and US triumphant over Germany, Italy and Japan signaling the end of dictatorships in those industrialized states.
However, The cost of WW II to both the antagonists, together with economic downturn that followed, resulted in Europe’s inability to hold on to her colonies in Asia and Africa signifying the end of colonial era world-wide The consequent loss of power sounded the death knell of West European hegemony over the world. Instead, the world saw the rapid emergence of two super powers, United States of America and Soviet Union (USSR), both laden with weapons of mass destruction and their struggle for world supremacy by means peaceful between the two but through proxy wars amongst their clients. For want of a precedent, this struggle was named the ‘Cold War’. Thereafter, under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust the world witnessed half a century of tussle between the two camps, one capitalist and the other communist. The ‘Cold War’ era ended in late nineties without Armageddon and mercifully the demise of imperialistic Soviet Communism and breakup of dictatorial Soviet Union that had threatened to bring the whole world under Soviet domination, by force if necessary.
The relief from the tensions of the cold war, of which Pakistan was an active participant having joined two different military pacts with USA, the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) and the South East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), both specifically designed to contain spread of Communism into the two regions. The former Pact; with Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, USA and UK as members; created hostility in Moscow towards Islamabad and resulted in drawing the Soviet Union towards India and their subsequent dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971. To return this Soviet compliment, Pakistan aided by USA, assisted Afghan Mujahideen to defeat Soviet invasion of their country. The cost of this Afghan adventure finally proved unbearable to Soviet Union and resulted in her economic implosion. The emergence of Taliban in Afghanistan brought peace to that war torn country but a civil war with the non-Pathan Afghan minority group called the Northern Alliance (NA) continued near Panjsheer valley. The Northern Alliance quickly obtained diplomatic, economic and military support of Russia, India and Iran. Meantime, the gradual induction of Osama bin Laadin and his Al Quaeda fighters into Afghanistan that was first welcomed by the West so long their activities remained confined in directions other than them, but with Bin Laadin turning against USA and continued Pakistani support for the Taliban, who refused to end their hospitality to Bin Laadin and Al Queda, USA signed a military alliance with NA in March 2001 whereby the former funded military supplies and training for NA forces by Russia and India. Other countries of the region suffering religious over-zealousness from Afghanistan trained leaders proved helpful to the new American cause. An Indian built hospital in Tajikistan on the border with Afghanistan became the conduit for military assistance and also acted as the base for NA’s helicopter operations against the Taliban. The 9/11 attacks on WTO in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, and the refusal of Mullah Omar to hand over the primary suspect Bin Laadin to US authorities led US and NA, in October 2001, to attack the Taliban and Al Quaeda, ending in their defeat by the end of the year.
The events of 9/11 clearly indicated that modern technology and products, including consumer or medical, have changed entirely the concept of future warfare. Thus, while Star War and Anti Missile Defence Equipment were the sophisticated state of the art material, many daily use items with some preparations and diligence could become effective weapons of mass destruction even in individual hands. The horrendous suicidal attacks at the heart of United States of America led to the start of a new era in world affairs. The use of readily available material to devastating purposes by small countries could become valuable means of defence or offence against larger and more powerful countries. Further, it provided the smaller or the weaker states with security and the ability to resist pressures that were unthinkable before. Such weapons could also become real means of coercion and blackmail by countries, groups or even individuals on others. Therefore, the concerted effort by the sole super power of the world USA to organize bans or maximum controls on all such items and products from proliferating to countries and organizations it does not trust. For over a year now, the whole world has backed this US effort under the excuse and guise of containing international Islamic terrorism, a term specially coined to attract Europe, Russia, China and India to the cause. All these states are neighbours of Muslim countries and suspect Islamic ideology. The fact, the term Islamic terrorism upsets the Muslims, matters little to them as most Muslim countries survived on munificence or were too weak to be of consequence.
However, the US move into Central Asia with its large oil and gas reserves and her declared intention of staying in that region has alarmed her newly befriended Russia. Further, the American Right’s recent resolve to replace Saddam Hussain in Iraq containing the only remaining large reservoir of oil in the world outside of US control, has truly disturbed Russia, France and Germany; all of whom were deeply interested in free and unhindered flow of that oil to their countries. China, though silent so far, must feel equally concerned by recent US moves into Central Asia and Iraq. For strategic and economic reasons, all the four countries cannot afford to let the control of Iraqi oil pass into hands that are under US influence. Otherwise, their economic and industrial future could be put at stake. This strategic divergence (on Iraq) between USA and UK on one side and Russia, France and Germany on the other, if unresolved reasonably quickly, has the possibility of turning into a wider crack in their unity in the future.
Weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems in Iraqi hands are another issue of concern to USA. While Iraqi missiles, carrying weapons of mass destruction, could equally threaten US and Russian interests within a few hundred-kilometer of Iraq; her chemical or biological weapons could reach worldwide in commercial ships and aircraft. Since these chemical - biological weapons of mass destruction could be manufactured from commercial use items, their manufacturing technology as well as trained manpower would have to be denied to Iraq.
It further implied destruction of machinery and equipment capable of producing these items of commercial use and the wastage of manpower already trained for producing them, as also, disabling training facilities that exist for the purpose in that country. More than that, as means of production could easily be recreated, to ensure Iraq does not clandestinely repeat the exercise, a permanent overseeing of the country would be required. Further, to ensure Iraq no longer remained a threat in the future, another means under consideration in USA and UK was to break up that country into three. But that would leave serious implications for Arab countries, Iran, Turkey as well as for Russia, China, France and Germany. Going beyond that, even the dismantling and overseeing of Iraq would set up a dangerous precedent, particularly for smaller and weaker countries. Thus, the next in line for similar treatment could be countries like North Korea followed by Iran, which have already been declared as rogue states by USA. Pakistan, with its nuclear capabilities, could not be too far behind in the queue for similar treatment were it to get too religious minded in its governance.
However, this threat to Pakistan was only viable if the country remained internally divided, economically or politically unstable, unsure of itself or had weak leadership cum government.
Of salutary effect on USA and the West has been the most recent North Korean disclosure of possessing nuclear enrichment facilities and a possible single digit nuclear weapons arsenal. This disclosure was accompanied by a display of resolve to continue with that program. The acquisition of nuclear capability by North Korea was of extreme significance to China and Russia as well, who have refrained from directly calling on that country to dismantle her nuclear weapons programme. At the recent Texas Ranch press conference the Chinese President called for peacefully resolving the problem without mentioning dismemberment of the nuclear weapons programme. North Korea’s nuclear capability by imposing new challenges for South Korea, Japan and Formosa; has dented the efficacy of those countries as forward US bases in the Pacific. Its consequent effect on USA was reflected in the much friendlier Bush approach towards China at the Texas Ranch Pow Wow. It would seem North Korea felt the necessity of possessing nuclear weapons because it could suffer collateral damage in any war between USA and China or Russia; just as Pakistan did when some cruise missiles fell in Pakistan territory on the two occasions. Tomahawks were fired into Afghanistan from the North Arabian Sea. Furthermore, a few months ago a senior Japanese bureaucrat had hinted at the need of Japan considering a nuclear weapons programme, which had caused great stir amongst Japan’s neighbours and embarrassment to the Japanese government. The Japanese government’s denial of any such considerations, however, remained under suspicion just as was the case of reports of exchange of missile and nuclear technologies between Pakistan and North Korea that both governments have denied.
The emergence of strategic political differences between USA and UK on one side and Russia, Germany and France on the other in the matter of Iraq and perhaps Iran as well as Central Asia also, together with their existing differences on Anti Ballistic Missile Defence Shield and Weaponization of Space plus other considerations like emergence of a powerful united continental Europe (within European Union) and three other important but so far less regarded events currently in progress give reasons for speculation that these trends continuing, the era of a single super power governing or administering the whole world might be approaching its zenith. The three other events of importance were; firstly, the survivability and sustainability displayed by the Palestinian people since 1920 despite all mechanizations against them, harassments, tortures and blood baths that has provided encouragement to people in occupied Kashmir also, beleaguered and tortured as they were by India. Secondly, the awakening among average Muslims the world over that something was amiss in the system of their governance, be it denial of their rights or education, which has made them the bete noire for the West, Russia and India. Though a mere inspiration and awakening at present, the thought of being free, independent and their own masters has great prospects of spreading en mass and flourishing despite all odds and efforts to control if not eradicate it. Lastly, the Chinese people under good guidance of their leaders have shown great patience and perseverance to progress towards becoming the future economic engine and powerhouse of the world. Whenever China attained that position of eminence, may be in the next two or three decades, going by her past history, she would likely bestow a sobering influence on the affairs of the world that would allow a ‘thousand flowers’ to flourish. All these are telltale signs or straws in the wind of disaffection with the present, and of a change in formation. The era of sole super power, the multinational and WTO could be approaching its zenith.