Water shortage has become a major National problem

Columnist Muhammad Anwar Khan analyses the effects of the acute shortage of water.

It has been noted in the Economic Survey of the year 2001-2002 that like the previous year (2000-2001), catastrophic drought hit the agriculture sector this year (2001-2002) as well. The acute shortage of water affected the performance of agriculture, which grew by 1.4 percent in the year 2001 -2002 as against the decline of 2.6 percent last year (2000-2001). The problem of lingering drought is therefore assuming grave dimensions and the need for giving urgent attention to it cannot too strongly be emphasised.
Water is considered essential for human life and for agriculture. Population explosion appears to be taking place in Pakistan. More the people, more the requirement of drinking water. Pakistan’s economy being agrarian also needs adequate supplies of water. Being a predominant sector of the economy, agriculture accounts for one fourth of GDP. Over 50% of the labour force of the country is engaged in agriculture. Around two third of the population resides in rural areas, whose major source of earning is from agriculture. It is also a source of foreign exchange earnings, besides being a source of raw material for the local industry.
Some put the blame for the lingering drought on the nuclear tests conducted by India and Pakistan in May 1998. They say that the tests disturbed the natural water cycle of the region, besides affecting the underground reservoirs of the country. Others place the blame on atmospheric changes taking place all over the world due to green house effect. Lingering droughts on large scale have been predicted for Pakistan and we have been forewarned of large areas of Pakistan turning into complete deserts. These are serious wake up calls and it is time that we took steps to avert the lurking dangers.
In order to mitigate the effect of drought, it is suggested that proposals already mooted to use explosives or some other technique to dislodge snow from mountains in Pakistan and Azad Kashmir are tried in times of need, in order to increase the inflow of water in the Dams and also in Water Catchment areas. There also appears to be a growing need for spraying chemicals on clouds in order to enable them to drop their rain loads. We have to try to augument our existing resources and to utilise these to their optimum capacity. It is considered desirable that we also study the experiences of other countries in the world, which are/have been experiencing droughts and find out as to what steps have been taken by them to overcome this problem.
There is a strong need to improve our water management. A lot of water is wasted in Pakistan, due to improper lining of water channels. Timings of water supply are not accurate and the big landlords are understood to be encroaching upon the timings allocated to small farmers. It is also understood that farmers are forced to take their turns in Monsoon seasons, which aggravates the menace of water-logging and salinity in the country. In order to conserve the water we should also consider resorting to drip, sprinkler and pitcher types of irrigation. Further, there is need to recycle the water after use. We have to avoid wastage of water. While it is important that we go on laying emphasis on plantation of trees, Forestry Department needs to discourage planting of those trees, which consume lot of water.
Two major dams have been constructed under Indus Water Treaty. One dam was constructed at Mangla in 1967 and the second at Tarbela in 1975 to store water and to distribute it to the Provinces under the aegis of Indus River System Authority (IRSA).
We do not appear to have given much attention to the maintenance of these two major reservoirs. In this connection, it is understood that Mangla Dam, Pakistan’s first big Dam was constructed on the basis of a feasibility study which envisaged capacity of the Dam of one hundred years or more. After a few years of operation, it has been noted that due to silting, most of its water holding capacity will be gone in 55 to 75 years. The case of Tarbela is no different as far as sediment (silting) is concerned. It appears that no cost-effective method has been found to remove silt from the dams. Silt is posing a serious problem and It is suggested that this problem is given for study to Water Research Institute (WRRI) of National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC), which is already working on somewhat similar project known as Rod Kohi System Development and Management in Pakistan. We should consider other options also.
It is understood that both the dams were overfilled during this year. Tarbela went upto 1,552 ft. against 1,550 ft. and Mangla touched 1,206 ft. mark. It is understood, however, that overfilling added only 0.2 m.a.f more water because of silt collection. Additional water did not last more than one week and the dams started depleting from September 8. Pakistan would face 36% water shortage during the Rabi season (October 01, 2002 to March 31, 2003). This is not a happy omen and may have serious adverse effect on growth of agriculture during the current fiscal (2002-2003) as well. Due to silting of dams, 2.2 m.a.f water went to sea, which was a complete waste.
It is obvious that more dams are needed to meet the requirements of water of the country. The problem of silt may be more acute in small dams as compared to big dams and one needs to examine closely the feasibility of small dams before undertaking their construction. There are examples of small dams having closed much earlier than projected.
In Pakistan, agriculture or more specifically the irrigated agriculture is predominately confined to Indus Basin System. In this system, it is the River Indus, which carries major proportion of annual run off, generated in its Catchment area.
The Indus is the second longest river in Western Asia and is known to have a mean annual discharge of 170 m.a.f. It ia also understood that it has ten times the volume of flow of Colorado River in the United States of America and Mexico and more than three times of the Nile. Holding capacity of Tarbela dam is only about one seventh of the annual flow of the Indus. Lake Mead on Colorado river by contrast holds more than twice as much water as the Colorado River carries in a year. In order to make optimum use of Tarbela and Mangla dams, the priority needs to be given to removing the silt and to enhance their capacities as much as possible. It is heartening to note that work has already started on increasing the height of Mangla dam by 30 feet. We should also examine the feasibility of enhancing the capacity of Tarbela dam.
The Indus can easily support another big dam. We are told that twenty dams have been built on Columbia River. We have already spent a lot of time, energy and resources on Kalabagh Dam Plan. It is incumbent upon our leaders to make the general public aware of the problems, which the country is already facing and may face more in future and try to win a consensus for undertaking this project. In its own interest and in the interest of Pakistan, Punjab should offer any sacrifices needed in this regard by the other Provinces, particularly by Sindh and N.W.F.P.
Last but not the least, India has threatened to scrap Indus Water Treaty which took many years of discussions and ultimately the Treaty was signed in Karachi by President of Pakistan, Prime Minister of India and Mr. W.A.B. Illif of the World Bank on 19th September 1960. The two major reservoirs of Tarbela and Mangla have been constructed on the basis of this Treaty. Under this Treaty, three western rivers namely the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab have been allocated largely to Pakistan and it is in our interest that we make the maximum use of these rivers.
With the investment that has gone into construction of dams, link canals etc by the World Bank and others, it is doubtful if India will carry out its threat. We should not however, ignore the threat completely but should take steps to meet this eventuality. In this connection it may also be pointed out that due to atmospheric changes taking place all over the world, it has been forecast that in not too distant future water levels in seas and oceans are expected to rise and are likely to move onto coastal area submerging large tracts of land under sea water. This forewarning provides an opportunity to depute our Scientists to harness our resources of seawater for converting into drinking water and also irrigation water. At the present stage of development of technology, these may be too expensive projects to undertake and we have, therefore, to contrive simple and inexpensive technologies for this purpose. Given encouragement, support and some patience, our Scientists may succeed in finding a way out. We have also to ensure that seawater is not able to make encroachments on the land. It is understood that some 1.2 million acres of agricultural coastal has been inundated already because of sea intrusion. This has resulted in loss of Rs. 100 billion by the province of Sindh, as claimed by Provincial Secretary of agriculture.
In the ultimate analysis, it is for the Nation to realize full gravity of water shortage problem and to rise to meet the challenge. The following urgent actions are called for:-

1. Augment existing resources and utilise these to optimum capacity. Improve water management and avoid waste.
2. Study should be carried out by our own experts to find out the steps taken by other countries to mitigate the effects of drought.
3. Silt problem is assuming great dimensions. Intensive research is needed. If equipment cannot help in solving this problem, human brains and human hands should be tried.
4. We should win a national consensus and build Kalabagh Dam on which we have already spent lot of time, energy and money.
5. We should device simple and cheap technologies for converting seawater for drinking and for agriculture. Steps should also be taken to check intrusion of sea into coastal lands.