Peace in South Asia

Contributing Editor Air Marshal (Retd) AYAZ AHMED KHAN analyses the possibilities of peace.

General Pervez Musharraf is a great optimist. His positive thinking should be emulated to enable the nation to overcome the sense of deprivation, fear and injustice. He has promised the moon through his reform package and constitutional amendments. All right thinking Pakistanis wish him well. But there are many “ifs and buts”, and intellectuals are highly skeptical both because of the past experience, and the insecure internal and external environment. In the past all Prime Ministers and Presidents promised the moon, but gave anarchy in the end. General Zia-ul-Haq promised Islam, on the condition that he remained President, and in the end gave nothing. The failure of the past governments and their ignoble end, was because each one of them got busy in loot and plunder and destruction of every institution of the state. They tried to harm the armed forces, but mercifully couldn’t.
Pakistan needs internal and regional peace, and sustaining and strengthening of institutions. Pakistan needs true democracy and dedication at all levels. Pakistan needs a prolonged period of peace to recover from the decades of neglect and bad governance. Peace is required to correct the adverse law and order, and root out internal terrorism and turmoil caused by extremist groups and militant sectarian organizations. After the American led Coalition war against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, the remnants of the Al-Qaeda fighters have headed for the Pakistani FATA region. Over one hundred have been arrested, but hundreds remain at large. Because of the difficult terrain, the few dozen Al-Qaeda members, mostly Chechens and Arabs, and their sympathizers are a headache for the seventy thousand Pakistani regular and para-military troops. In a recent shootout Pakistani troops were ambushed and in the fire fight, ten Pakistani Army personnel including three officers were killed. Near Kohat in another shootout four Chechens and two Pakistani policemen were killed. The rangers and the Police have succeeded in arresting many other known criminals from kashkar-e Jhangvi and other terrorist groups. But violence and terrorism has become deeply ingrained, and the entire nation must help the government to eradicate violence and destroy terrorism.
After September 11, 2001 under US pressure the Musharraf government came down hard on the bigger Islamic jihadi — militant organizations. Their office-bearers were arrested and funds seized. But the rabid religious elements in FATA, NWFP, Balochistan and in the Madrassas in the Punjab and Sindh especially in Karachi continue to be sympathetic to the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda. The Jihadi groups based in Occupied Kashmir, have shifted totally into Indian Held Kashmir, but their remnants and other mushrooming groups like Harkat-ul-Mujahidin Al-Alami have intensified their activities in Pakistan. The April 30 attempt on the life of President General Pervez Musharraf fully reveals their sinister motives. The dastardly bombing attempt on President’s entourage on April 30 with a Suzuki pickup loaded with 250Kg explosives proves that the killer terrorists are totally unafraid, and have no compunctions about their murderous attempt on the life of the President of Pakistan. The big smiles on the ugly faces of terrorist Muhammad Hanif and Muhammad Imran reflects insanity. Their smugness over bombing twelve innocent Pakistanis to death, and their attempt on the life of President Musharraf, must not go unpunished. The Army rulers must seriously reflect that with terrorists knocking on the door of the President, no Pakistani citizen feels secure. Karachi has become a terrorist behive, which must be destroyed.
Government is seized of the problem and is taking calculated measures to root out terrorism including reform of the Deeni seminaries. Many of these funded from outside preach intolerance, violence and extremism, which promotes hatred and terrorism. But the task is far too big for the ill-organized and ill-equipped police and government agencies. Several terrorist acts viz mosque bombings, gunning down of worshippers inside mosques, killing of government officials, doctors, lawyers, intellectuals, respected philanthropists like Hakeem Said, and the February assassination of Daniel Pearl, church bombings at Bahawalpur and Islamabad, bombing massacres of French submarine engineers, and ordinary Pakistanis outside the US consulate in Karachi, and attempt on the life of the President, provide all the evidence that the killers are well-provided with funds, weapons and expertise and every time catch the police and the intelligence agencies napping. How far the enemies of Pakistan are engaged in conspiracies to sabotage peace and spread unrest has yet to be clearly established. Their motive clearly is to destablize the existing order and create anarchy in the country. Assured law and order is essential for internal peace and Pakistan’s contribution for regional peace will remain ineffective, without internal peace and stability. With anarchy and chaos in Pakistan fomented by external agencies, regional peace becomes a far cry.
Religious extremism and fanticism is now as big a threat to national security, as the external threat from India. While the Indian troops keep bombarding the villages across the LoC in Azad Kashmir, the killer fanatic extremists are decimating innocent people all over the country, and have plans to continue terrorist bombing attacks till the achievement of their nefarious objectives and motives to destroy Pakistan from within. They have become an extremely serious threat against the state and the people, and must be dealt with properly, and with all the power of the state. For peace in the region, the prerequisite is assured internal security and stability. The label that Pakistan is a soft and ungovernable state must be erased for good. Only a strong leader and a resolute government and administration could achieve this mission of internal peace. It was hoped that the Army government will succeed in restoring law and order. It is still trying; while the PPP government in its second stint restored order in Karachi, though at some cost.
Peace in South Asia depends on the policies of regional countries, especially of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other small neighbours. Iran, Afghanistan, Russia and China being immediate neighbours have a role in ensuring peace in the region. Interests and policies of the US the sole superpower, UK its closest ally, countries of European Union and Japan could influence the establishment of peace in South Asia.
But the major powers must look beyond their narrow interests, and must desist from policies of appeasement. The policies of the government of India and the attitude of the people of India are key to the establishment of peace in South Asia. With India refusing to solve the Kashmir dispute by dialogue, and with the Indian armed forces deployed against Pakistan, regional peace is a far cry. With the BJP government openly engaged in coercive diplomacy of threats of war, intimidation and ultimatums, and Pakistan calling for peaceful dialogue, which has been rejected by the BJP government, peace in South Asia at best is a distant hope if not a mirage. You cannot clap with one hand, and peace in South asia is impossible, if India does not cooperate. With India on the warpath, talk of peace appears to be futile.
Solution of Kashmir problem is the key to peace in South Asia. The situation of no war-no peace will continue if the Kashmir dispute is not solved amicably and justly. Indian arrogance and obduracy not to settle the Kashmir problem peacefully through dialogue is because India wants to maintain military and economic imbalance in South Asia. The power balance presently is heavily tilted in favour of India, enabling New Delhi to follow the policy of occupation, and military intimidation. South Asia will remain unstable as India feels predominant militarily, economically, politically and diplomatically. The power imbalance in South Asia must be corrected for the sake of peaceful co-existence. India wants peace on its own terms. Exercising the military option since 1989, Indian troops have killed eighty three thousand Kashmiris, including six thousand killed in custody. Twenty one thousand Kashmiri women have been widowed, and 101,200 Kashmiri children have been orphaned. Nine thousand Kashmiri women have been raped or killed during sex abuse by Indian Army officers and men. Kashmiri youth are tortured and killed on a daily basis on the pretext that they are infiltrators. Indian barbarities have totally alienated the Kashmiri population. Yet India wants to maintain its military grip over Occupied Jammu and Kashmir.
The complete shutter down strike during Premier Atal Behari Vajpayee’s visit to the valley (May 21-23) should have convinced the government and people of India that the Kashmiris want the puppet Farooq Abdullah government, and the Indian army out of Kashmir. An equitable and just solution of the Kashmir dispute is key to peace in South Asia. Pakistan desires peace with India through dialogue over Jammu and Kashmir. India has instead adopted the threatening posture of massive military deployment, threats of surgical strikes and ultimatums of military action. How can there be peace when the bigger state in South Asia follows the policy of military coercion and diplomatic blackmail? In this situation Pakistan must keep its guard up, and be fully prepared for the eventuality of war, which India could pre-empt.
To correct the strategic imbalance smaller countries especially Bangladesh and Pakistan need to comprehend that India is their common enemy. Dhaka and Islamabad need to initiate dialogue for peace in the region, in the hope that New Delhi will join in. Bangladesh could play a role in removing irritants and help India and Pakistan to shed real and imaginary animosities. Besides Bangladesh and Pakistan need to start talking about power balance in South Asia. Together they could create a balance of power to check Indian political, diplomatic, economic and military hegemony. Bangladesh may make certain demands on Pakistan for the redress of past grievances. These must not be thrown under the mat as was done by past governments. Dhaka should come up front for what exactly it wants from Islamabad. Islamabad’s response should be sympathetic and positive.
Pakistan needs peace and must strive for it. At Agra it was almost achieved. But Indian hardliners led by L.K Advani sabotaged it. Post 9-11 global hysteria is being used dishonestly by India to corner Pakistan and to destroy the freedom movement in Occupied Kashmir. The BJP government is following a totally dishonest policy on Kashmir. Indian military option has not worked and will not succeed. To checkmate Indian military plans to colonise jammu and Kashmir by force. Pakistan must take steps to correct the power balance in South Asia. While averting war, Pakistan needs to prepare for war to achieve peace. Indian bellicosity is because of superior force levels. A ten year defence plan to achieve numerical balance of infantry forces, based on the peoples volunteer army be given serious thought. Aircraft, armour, guns, mortars, missiles, vehicles production be given priority to raise at least three strike corps. The US Administration be asked to equip and fund the three Corps troops strength deployed to fight
Al-Qaeda on the Afghanistan- Pakistan border. Washington has taken Pakistan for a ride by not providing any interest while asking this small country to fight for American interests.
Nuclear deterrence: The no war no peace situation is inspite of the nuclear deterrence. Nuclear deterrence has averted war, but Indian military deployment, threats and ultimatums of surgical strikes across the LoC continues inspite of the nuclear deterrence. BJP rulers have disregarded Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence for three reasons:

I. Twice as large conventional military strength.
II. Second strike nuclear attack capability designed into the Indian nuclear doctrine.
III. Four times larger area, eight times larger population, nuclear war is unlikely because of the following factors.

1. US pressure and technology restraints.
2. Realization that nuclear conflict will mean total decimation of both.
3. President Pervez Musharraf has repeatedly assured the world community that nuclear war is out. One should not even think about it.
4. Indian leaders have also shown restraint, and have assured the world community that India has fool proof command and control system.

So the biggest danger to South Asian peace is the continuing Kashmir dispute and Indian conventional military preponderance. Pakistan has tried and is continuing to try that the problem of Jammu and Kashmir is solved on the basis of the principal of partition and according to the UN Security Council resolutions. The people of Jammu and Kashmir must be given the right to decide their own future. India invaded and occupied the Kashmir Valley and other parts of Jammu and Kashmir, and continues to hold the state by military power. Pakistan is the only country which can challenge Indian hegemonism and expansionism.
The essential prerequisites for peace in this scenario is political unity, economic stability and credible conventional military capability. Pakistan has no choice but to develop a credible nuclear deterrent capability. And equally important is to develop conventional military capability to avert the kind of blackmail being resorted to by India.
Pakistan conventional military capability is half of that of India, especially in numerical terms. This must be corrected. Pakistan needs more troops, tanks, guns, missiles and associated equipment. It is about time that the Musharraf administration becomes upfront with the Bush administration.
To help Pakistan to raise five more army corps—three for deployment on the western border and two as reserve for the war against terror. The United States and the UK have resorted to arms twisting to make Pakistan complaint to Indian diktat. This has to be resisted. Long-term policy is required to double the strength of the three services, and correct the present imbalance in conventional military power.
Peace in South Asia will be assured when regional countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh achieve credible defensive capability to neutralize Indian strategy to blackmail smaller countries by coercive diplomacy, backed by massive conventional power.