Executive Summary of the Month
With
President Pervez Musharraf in the US and Europe, Prime
Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee in China and President
Vladimir Putin in UK, the political atmosphere of
the world was very warm throughout the month. Many
strategic changes are gradually taking place, fallout
of which will be felt in the years to come. New partnerships
are being sought and old ones are being strengthened.
Russia
and China seem to be moving closer to each other.
The Defence Ministers of both countries agreed to
“widen” bilateral relations, including
military ties. Mr. Putin’s statement that he
believed in a new “multipolar” world which
will “respect the interests of all” clearly
depicts the world view about US after its attack on
Iraq against the wishes of almost all major powers.
Many interesting revelations took place like the US
policy of shifting troops round the globe and its
plan to support India’s emerging role in Asia.
Both the policies are dealt in greater length in the
subsequent part. Political instability is now looming
large over Iran which is being brought into the net
by the US. With the already vulnerable security environment
in the Middle East this could prove to be unstable.
The Russian Foreign Minister, Igor Ivanov’s
extended trip across Asia – including India,
Pakistan and Cambodia, part of Moscow’s “Look
East” policy to counter what they see as Washington’s
push for global dominance, is a case in point. It
has recently announced plans to boost its military
presence in the Central Asian Republics by establishing
permanent defence bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
in order to offset around a dozen overt and covert
staging points that the US Government had access to
in the region – including Georgia, Turkmenistan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
The European Union, in a significant shift towards
US thinking adopted a strategy that allows use of
force where diplomacy fails to address threats from
Weapons of Mass Destruction.
On regional fronts the conflicts witnessed more violence
in Middle East and Kashmir where hundreds of people
died both as a result of suicide attacks and state
and military retaliation. While on the one hand the
“roadmap” to peace in the Middle East
seems destined to failure, India and Pakistan peace
negotiations have stalled due to their staunch positions.
The US decision to pull its troops back from the Demilitarized
Zone in the Korean Peninsula has left the two Koreas
in security dilemmas. The South must now bear more
of its defence spending while the North sees the move
as yet another sign of impending US attacks.
Internally too, the month was full of political rifts,
though the federal budget figured as the basic course
of discussion around the country. Political debate
mostly moved around the rifts in Sindh Assembly over
the construction of Thar Canal, that was rejected.
No headway could be achieved between the Government
and Opposition parties over the issues of LFO and
General Musharraf’s uniform. Though Premier
Jamali showed his willingness to hold meetings with
the opposition, his move was met with suspicion. Law
and order situation remained unabated and political
atmosphere was tense.
International
War Crime Suits Filed against Bush, Blair and Others
According to information released by the Belgian Government,
war crime lawsuits have been filed in Belgium against
eight top officials, including US President George
W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair. However,
the Belgian government has refused to handle the cases
arising from the conflict in Iraq, referring them
to the US and British governments. Nevertheless the
lawsuits, brought under Belgium’s ‘universal
competence law’, are likely to deepen tensions
between Washington and Brussels, which firmly opposed
the war in Iraq. Last week US Defence Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld – who is one of the eight officials
named in the lawsuits – said Belgium would face
consequences unless it revised the “absurd”
law. He warned that US officials would shun the country,
and announced that US funding for a new NATO headquarters
in Brussels, which is also home to the European Union,
would be suspended.
British Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon, who said the
Belgian law was a matter of “great concern”,
backed Mr Rumsfeld. The 1993 law allows courts that
were established in Belgium to judge suspects accused
of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide,
regardless of where the alleged acts were committed,
the nationality of the accused or that of the victims.
The justice ministry said it had received three lawsuits
arising from the Iraq conflict seeking action against
Mr. Bush, Mr. Blair and the six others viz. US Secretary
of State Colin Powell, Mr. Rumsfeld, Rumsfeld’s
deputy Paul Wolfowitz, Attorney-General John Ashcroft,
National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and General
Tommy Franks, who led US forces in Iraq.
Mr Bush, Mr Rumsfeld, Mr Ashcroft, Ms Rice and Mr
Wolfowitz were additionally accused over the US-led
campaign in Afghanistan that toppled the Taliban regime
in line with a decision taken by the Belgian cabinet
last month when a similar case was filed against US
military officials, including Gen Franks.
The Belgian government is seeking to deflect the storm
of international criticism of the law, under which
suits have also been brought against Israeli officials,
including Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. A newspaper
said Belgium may try to circumvent the growing row
over the war crimes law by extending diplomatic immunity
to all official visitors to international bodies on
its territory.
Africa’s New Oil Rush: Corruption and
Chaos
Washington’s determination to find an alternative
energy source to the Middle East is leading to a new
oil rush in sub-Saharan Africa which threatens to
launch a fresh cycle of conflict, corruption and environmental
degradation in the region. According to a report,
Bottom of the Barrel by Ian Gary from the US aid agency
Catholic Relief Services (CRS), the new scramble for
Africa risks bringing more misery to the continent’s
impoverished citizens as western oil companies pour
billions of dollars in secret payments into government
coffers throughout the continent. Much of the money
ends up in the hands of ruling elite or is squandered
on grandiose projects and the military.
Taking
notice of this scramble, Tony Blair has urged the
oil industry to be more transparent in its dealings
with Africa. Openness and accountability are essentials
for stability and prosperity in the developing world.
It is noteworthy here that African countries own eight
per cent of world oil reserves. An estimated 200 billion
dollars in revenues will flow into African government
treasuries over the next 10 years as new oilfields
open up throughout the Gulf of Guinea. Oil will bring
the largest influx of revenue in the continent’s
history, and more than 10 times the amount western
donors give each year in aid.
However,
Ian Gary warned that: “Petro-dollars have not
helped developing countries to reduce poverty; in
many cases they have actually exacerbated it. In Nigeria,
for example, which has received over $300 billion
in oil revenues over the last 25 years, per capita
income is less than $1 a day.” Despite the prime
minister’s backing for the Extractive Industries
Transparency Initiative (EITI), aid agencies and MEPs
(Members of the European Parliament) say Britain has
let oil companies off the hook by watering down plans
to make publication of payments to Third World governments
mandatory.
Many political and business elites have major vested
interests in avoiding transparency.
British
oil firms, including Shell and BP, have privately
backed calls for publication of payments to be compulsory
because they believe otherwise honest companies will
be undercut by less scrupulous competitors.
BP
was nearly kicked out of Angola for disclosing that
it had paid a 111 million dollars signature bonus
to the government in 2001. But with the US administration
under pressure from American oil companies to resist
new regulations, Britain has abandoned the mandatory
approach in favour of a statement of principles which
industry and government representative can agree on.
The
discovery of high-quality offshore fields has attracted
interest at the highest levels of the Bush administration,
which is determined to lessen America’s dependence
on imports from the Middle East. A taskforce headed
by the US vice-president, Dick Cheney, predicted two
years ago that West Africa would become the fastest
growing source of oil and gas for the American market.
The US geo-strategic view is that all crude oil is
good, and all non-OPEC oil is especially good. The
goal is to take the Saudi hand off the spare oil capacity
spigot.
Next
month President Bush is planning to visit Senegal,
Nigeria and South Africa while the Pentagon is reportedly
considering redeploying American troops to protect
key oil reserves in Africa, particularly Nigeria.
Washington is preparing to reopen its embassy in Equatorial
Guinea, where oil revenues have boosted GDP by 60
per cent over the last two years, despite State Department
reservations over the country’s appalling human
rights record. The US has identified increasing African
oil imports as an issue of “national security”
and has used diplomacy to court African producers
regardless of their record on transparency, democracy
or human rights.
The CRS report says Gabon, Angola and Nigeria, which
discovered oil several decades ago, have fared worse
than many African countries. In Nigeria, an overvalued
exchange rate has devastated the non-oil sectors of
the economy while local uprisings over control of
oil revenues have sparked large-scale military repression
in the Niger delta. In Gabon, oil has been at the
centre of a string of scandals tainting the Mitterrand
government, which turned a blind eye as the French-owned
oil company, Elf Aquitaine, used the country’s
banks to launder money while paying huge bribes to
the government.
The
World Bank and the IMF have been too slow to recognize
that corrupt governments are squandering oil revenues.
Despite recent statements of support for transparency,
the bank has yet to make its loans conditional on
full disclosure. Keeping in view the level of corruption
in Africa and political aims of the US and European
companies involved it is extremely difficult to be
optimistic that the oil wealth would yield any positive
gains for the region.
Unrest
In Iran
Student
demonstrations in Tehran spread to two other Iranian
cities. The growing anger expressed by the student community
over the proposed privatization of Iranian universities
has also come to involve other segments of society and
people representing diverse interests have joined the
protest rallies. Many young people feel frustrated at
the Khatami government’s failure to implement
reforms and are now asking it to step down. Anti-clerical
sentiment has never before been expressed this boldly,
and seems to echo the messages being broadcast by the
US-based pro-monarchy channels beaming into Iran. Moreover,
the US government has declared that it would continue
to “express support” for the Iranian students
protesting against the government in Tehran. In another
development, a US senator, Sam Brownback has introduced
legislation for setting up a fund that would help these
students.
This
is happening at a time when American forces are deployed
at Iran’s doorstep which should be a cause for
worry, especially with the Bush administration’s
declared aim of reshaping the region to suit the exigencies
of US foreign policy on the Middle East. Signals emanating
from Washington and Tehran in recent days threaten
to move Iran up in the list of the countries with
which the US wants to settle scores. With the American
forces deployed in Afghanistan in the east, Iraq in
the west and the Gulf in the south, Tehran is virtually
surrounded by a very hostile America in a belligerent
mood. Washington’s allegations that Iran supports
terrorism, harbours Al Qaida operatives and is developing
nuclear weapons, have limited the conservatives’
options in regard to controlling the on-going demonstrations.
The situation has sparked fears about Iran’s
internal stability. Any destabilization of the Islamic
republic at this point, however, is likely to benefit
the US and Israel more than the Iranians themselves,
or the region as a whole. Thus it is extremely necessary
for the country to gain stability. It can only be
hoped that all the parties involved show sanity and
differentiate between interests of “others”
and of their country.
EU Backs Use Of Force Against States Having
WMDs
EU foreign ministers adopted a strategy to combat
the spread of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons
for the first time, including a reference to possible
military action as a last resort against states or
“terrorists” that acquired such arms.
In a significant shift towards US thinking, it stated
that use of force might be necessary where diplomacy
failed to address threats from weapons of mass destruction.
According to the strategy, preventive measures such
as treaties, dialogue and inspections should be the
first line of defence against the proliferation of
the world’s most dangerous weapons. But “when
these measures (including political dialogue and diplomatic
pressure) have failed, coercive measures under Chapter
VII of the UN charter and international law (sanctions,
selective or global, interceptions of shipments and,
as appropriate, the use of force) could be envisioned.
Ministers
endorsed the strategy, coupled with an action plan
giving the fight against WMD priority in EU relations
with third countries, on the day they voiced serious
concern at aspects of Iran’s nuclear programme.
But Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou, who
chaired the meeting, insisted the reference to possible
use of force was not related to the separate statement
on Iran.
Diplomats
said the moves were part of an EU drive to take the
WMD threat more seriously and repair transatlantic
relations after a severe rift over the US-led invasion
of Iraq. The EU document did, however, insist that
action should be approved by the United Nations, whose
Security Council it said “should play a central
role”. Among key measures in the plan were boosting
the budget of the International Atomic Energy Agency,
tightening export controls and strengthening multilateral
verification regimes.
Ex-US Official-Evidence Distorted for War
According to a report posted on the Internet the Bush
administration distorted intelligence and presented
conjecture as evidence to justify the US invasion
of Iraq. According to Greg Thielmann who was director
of the strategic, proliferation and military issues
office in the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence
and Research, his office was privy to classified intelligence
gathered by the CIA and other agencies about Iraq’s
chemical, biological and nuclear programmes. In Thielmann’s
view, Iraq could have presented an immediate threat
to US security in two areas: either it was about to
make a nuclear weapon or it was forming close operational
ties with al-Qaida terrorists. Evidence was lacking
for both, despite claims by President Bush and others,
Thielmann said in an interview. Suspicions were presented
as fact, contrary arguments ignored, he said. The
administration’s pre-war portrayal of Iraq’s
weapons capabilities has not been validated despite
weeks of searching by military experts. Alleged stockpiles
of chemical and biological weapons have not turned
up, nor has significant evidence of a nuclear weapons
program or links to the al-Qaida network.
Bush
has said administration assertions on Iraq will be
verified in time. The CIA and other agencies have
vigorously defended their pre-war performances.
Thielmann
suggested mistakes may have been made at points all
along the chain from when intelligence is gathered,
analyzed, presented to the President and then provided
to the public. The evidence of a renewed nuclear programme
in Iraq was far more limited than the administration
contended, he said. “When the administration
did talk about specific evidence – it was basically
declassified, sensitive information – it did
it in a way that was also not entirely honest,”
Thielmann said.
In
his State of the Union address, Bush said, “The
British government has learned that Saddam Hussein
recently sought significant quantities of uranium
from Africa.” The Africa claim rested on a purported
letter or letters between officials in Iraq and Niger
held by European intelligence agencies. The communications
are now accepted as forged, and Thielmann said he
believed the information on Africa was discounted
months before Bush mentioned it. “I was very
surprised to hear what he announced to the United
States and the entire world,” he said. Some
critics have suggested that the White House and Pentagon
policy-makers pressured the CIA and military intelligence
to come up with conclusions favourable to an attack-Iraq
policy. The CIA and military have denied such charges.
Thielmann said that generally he felt no such pressure.
Although his office did not directly handle terrorism
issues, Thielmann said he was similarly unconvinced
of a strong link between al-Qaida and Saddam’s
government. Yet, the implication from Bush downwards
was that Saddam supported Osama bin Laden’s
network. Iraq and the Sept. 11 attacks frequently
were mentioned in the same sentence, even though officials
have no good evidence of any link between the two.
The Twin Summits:
Roadmap to Nowhere?
The reciprocal promises made by the leaders of Israel
and Palestine at the Jordanian port city of Aqaba
on June 4, 2003 may sound good but do not provide
any guarantee to the full and final settlement of
their disputes that have plagued them over many decades.
The pledges they made in the presence of the US President
were at best seen as the rejection of the policy of
violence that they have pursued.
Altogether
the signs are not good at present. Sharon’s
supporters and followers, mostly hardliners and orthodox
Jews have displayed dejection over Sharon’s
undertaking that unauthorized outposts would be vacated
as per the roadmap. Another alarming aspect is the
reported differences that have already emerged between
him and Abbas over the number of outposts that are
to be dismantled. The Sharon government had hesitated
and faltered before finally announcing its acceptance
of the roadmap expressing as many as 14 reservations.
Despite Sharon’s undertaking, the settlement
activities continue although the roadmap calls for
a halt to such activity; it also proposes a dismantling
of all Jewish settlements built after March 2001.
It remains to be seen whether Israel will really do
this.
Prime
Minister Abbas also faces a daunting challenge on
the home front. His assurance of reining in the militant
groups was promptly rejected by Hamas and Islamic
Jihad who refused to surrender arms until the total
liberation of Palestine. Abbas is in a Catch-22 situation;
he wants to stop the militant groups but does not
have the means (security apparatus) to assert his
will over these liberation groups. The ball is more
or less in the Israeli court; if Israel is really
interested in peace, perhaps it could match its words
of peaceful coexistence with deeds without asking
(or expecting) the Palestinian to act first, a way
out could be found. But this may prove to be wishful
thinking.
Meanwhile,
President Bush’s comments at the Middle East
Peace Summit in Egypt asking PM Mahmoud Abbas to “stop”
the Palestinian resistance has outraged Hamas who
has threatened to disavow PM Abbas as a representative
of the Palestinians if he does not reject US President
George W. Bush’s comments.
Sino-Russian Understanding
Russia and China are making a determined bid to come
closer to each other. Chinese and Russian defence
ministers agreed in Moscow to “widen”
bilateral relations, including military ties. There
has been a steady growth in the relations between
these two countries who also share similar views on
a number of major international issues such as their
anti-war stand on Iraq, their opposition to American
forces in Central Asia and their common views on the
US-North Korean row over Pyongyang’s weapons
programme. Both countries had also signed a friendship
treaty in 2002 and are also members of the six-nation
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) which will
be turned into a security organization by 2004. All
these could be seen as a result of the widespread
annoyance against the US for its unilateral war on
Iraq.
UN to Press for Release of Aung San Suu Kyi
UN special envoy, Razali met Myanmar officials on
June 5 to press for the release of pro-democracy leader
Aung San Suu Kyi who was detained last week after
a deadly clash between her followers and government
supporters. The ruling generals have held the Nobel
peace laureate at an undisclosed location since the
violence as she toured a provincial town. Meanwhile
the United States said it suspected Suu Kyi and her
convoy were ambushed and attacked by “government-affiliated
thugs”. Myanmar military says four people died
and 50 were injured in the clashes but dissidents
in exile suspect perhaps as many as 75 of Suu Kyi’s
supporters were killed. Diplomats and dissidents fear
Suu Kyi was injured in the May 30 violence but Myanmar
officials have denied that.
Razali
also wanted to see senior leaders of Suu Kyi’s
National League for Democracy (NLD) who have been
confined to their houses by the military for the past
week. But he told reporters the military had not yet
given any signal they would allow him access to the
NLD leadership.
Razali
has visited Myanmar several times in the past two
years to try to encourage talks on a democratic transition
in the country that the military has ruled since a
1962 coup. He was instrumental in persuading the generals
to free Suu Kyi from a spell of house arrest in May
2002 after a series of “confidence-building”
talks between the junta and the NLD.
The
United States and Britain have stepped up diplomatic
pressure for Suu Kyi’s release and called on
the junta to allow Razali to meet her.
The
NLD swept to a landslide election victory in 1990,
but has never been allowed to rule.
US Opposition to Chirac’s Vision of
Multi-polarity
US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice attacked
French President Jacques Chirac’s concept of
a multi-polar world, dismissing it as a “theory
of rivalry” that had never promoted peace. In
an address to the London-based International Institute
of Strategic Studies (IISS), she said: “Multipolarity
was never a unifying idea or vision... it was a necessary
evil that sustained the essence of war but did not
promote peace, it is a theory of rivalry, of competing
interests and, at its very worst, of competing values.
We tried it before... it led to the Great War, to
the Second World War and to the Cold War.”
She
questioned the motives of those who “nostalgically”
sought to defend this concept of international relations.
Although she did not refer specifically to France,
Rice’s remarks represented thinly veiled criticism
of Paris’ stance. Throughout the Iraq crisis,
France defended its vision of a multi-polar world
of various power centres, including the United States
and Europe, to justify its right to express different
views from those of Washington. At the G8 summit of
the world’s leading industrial nations in the
French town of Evian in June, Chirac – determined
to promote his vision of a multi-polar world –
invited leaders from a dozen emerging and developing
states to join in the talks.
EU – Divided and Reluctant
The US appeal to the European Union (EU) to cut off
funding to the Palestinian militant group Hamas is
unlikely to find an unequivocal echo within the European
Union, which is divided on the issue. At this week’s
summit meeting between the US and European leaders,
aimed at improving relations, President George W.
Bush said that the dismantling of groups such as Hamas
would be the “true test” of the roadmap
to peace in the Middle East. He urged the leaders
in Europe and around the world to take swift, decisive
action against terrorist groups such as Hamas, to
cut off their funding and support.
The
EU delegation headed by Commission President Romano
Prodi and Greek Prime Minister Constantine Simitis,
included Javier Solana, High Representative for the
EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP)
and Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy. The meeting in
Washington was the first formal EU-US summit since
the Iraq war, which bitterly divided Washington and
its European allies as France and Germany, two of
the EU’s most powerful members, refused to back
the US-led invasion. Although an extradition deal
between the EU and the US was signed at the summit,
authorizing the sharing of information and broadening
the scope of crimes to which extradition would apply,
continuing differences were apparent as President
Bush pressed the EU to crack down on Hamas. Between
1994 and 2001, the EU gave 1.446 billion euros in
aid to the Palestinians. EU member states supported
the Palestinian Authority with an additional one billion
euros. The US has listed Hamas on the whole as a “foreign
terrorist organization” for many years, but
the EU continues to distinguish between its military
activities and its political and social role in the
Palestinian territories.
The
fissures within the 15-nation EU have been surfacing
even before the EU-US summit. Britain, for example,
has already indicated that it supports Washington’s
stance over Hamas, but faces strong opposition from
France. At a meeting in Luxembourg on June 17, British
Foreign Secretary Jack Straw pressed his EU colleagues
to outlaw the political wing if their attacks do not
cease. However, French Foreign Minister Dominique
de Villepin insisted that Hamas was a necessary player
in the peace process.
Asked
about differences within the European Union, a spokesperson
for the EU, refused to indicate which member states
were against the outlawing of Hamas and which were
in favour. Michael Emmerson, expert in EU foreign
policy and Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for
European Policy Studies, told IPS that the EU faces
a “difficult decision”. But it might be
just the right one. Emmerson said: “The EU is
looking for ways to find areas of convergence with
the US to mend relations after the war in Iraq and
so the outlawing of Hamas could provide it with a
good opportunity to improve these relations. It also
wants to show the world that the EU is not just a
soft power and that it is hardening up at the edges.”
The
EU spokesperson said: “There is an active debate
within Europe about the most useful way of applying
pressure. All tactics will be considered and we will
decide according to what is happening on the ground.
Although there have been tense moments between the
EU and US over the war in Iraq there is still a good
relationship between the two. The test is not if you
disagree but whether you can resolve problems.”
US
Shifting Troops To Far-Flung Bases
According to a US Defence official, in the most extensive
global realignment of US military forces since the
end of the Cold War, the Bush administration is creating
a network of far-flung military bases designed for
the rapid projection of American military power against
terrorists, hostile states and other potential adversaries.
The withdrawal of US troops from the Demilitarized
Zone between North and South Korea and the recent
removal of most US forces from Saudi Arabia are the
opening moves in a complex shift that should replace
most large, permanent US bases overseas with smaller
facilities that can be used as needed.
The
bases are being built or expanded in countries such
as Qatar, Bulgaria and Kyrgyzstan and the US territory
of Guam. While existing US bases in Germany and South
Korea, in place for more than 50 years, were designed
to deter major communist adversaries, the new bases
will become key nodes in the implementation of the
administration’s doctrine of pre-emptive attack
against terrorists and hostile states believed to
have chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.
Their location is based on the premise that US forces
must be able to strike rapidly against adversaries
who may be armed with weapons of mass destruction
before they can attack the United States or its allies.
The basing strategy is also predicated on Defence
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s oft-stated belief
that the United States cannot predict who its adversaries
are going to be.
The
new network of bases corresponds to what Defence officials
call an “arc of instability” that runs
from the Andean region in the Southern Hemisphere
through North Africa to the Middle East and into Southeast
Asia. It is revealed that the new basing concept would
require fundamental changes in the way US forces are
structured and transported by air and sea. They would
need to be deployed around the world in smaller units
more much rapidly, often falling in on equipment already
in place.
The
United States would maintain a ring of permanent military
“hubs” on US territory, such as Guam,
and in closely allied countries, such as Britain and
possibly Japan. But many of the major bases on which
it had relied, such as those in Saudi Arabia, Turkey,
Germany and South Korea, will be replaced by dozens
of spartan “forward operating bases” in
southern Europe, the Middle East and Asia, maintained
only by small, permanent support units. According
to plan, beyond the hubs and forward operating bases
would lie a ring of “forward operating locations,”
or prearranged but unmaintained staging areas US forces
would be allowed by host nations to occupy quickly
in the event of a conflict. Officials said these forward
facilities would be augmented by greater reliance
on basing forces and equipment aboard ships at sea,
and on pre-positioning forces and heavy combat equipment
at staging areas along major shipping routes.
Defence
officials cited a series of basing agreements developed
in the Persian Gulf in anticipation of the Iraq war
as a prototype for those they want in other parts
of the world. Although US forces have vacated two
large permanent air bases in Saudi Arabia and Turkey
which were used to patrol the northern and southern
“no-fly” zones over Iraq for more than
a decade, they have established forward operating
bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and the United
Arab Emirates. Military personnel are stationed in
all of these countries, with 5th Fleet headquarters
in Bahrain, a major Air Force operations centre in
Qatar and two huge Army bases in Kuwait. But there
are no combat units permanently based in any of those
countries, as there are in Germany, home to the Army’s
1st Armoured and 1st Infantry divisions. The continued
basing of 60,000 Army troops in Germany, where they
have been since the end of World War II, is under
review. Defence officials want to continue using Ramstein
Air Base in southern Germany and view it as a critical
hub facility for supporting deployments to more distant
forward operating bases and locations.
Another
scenario under consideration, Defence officials said,
calls for the troops in Germany to be brought home
and based in the United States. They could then be
rotated on six-month assignments in countries such
as Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, which are closer
to the Balkans and Central Asia and less restrictive
than Germany as training sites.
Defence
officials are also interested in operating locations
along southern European shipping routes in Italy,
Spain and Portugal. Farther east, in Central Asia,
the US plans on maintaining bases in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan
and Kyrgyzstan, which were established in 2001 to
support the war in Afghanistan. In Asia, the relocation
of 18,000 Army troops away from the Demilitarized
Zone in South Korea to areas 75 miles south is designed
to make them more mobile, freeing them to respond
to other emergencies in the region. Ultimately, some
of those troops might be brought to the United States
and deployed to South Korea on six-month rotations.
Defence
officials say there is no plan for moving all 20,000
Marines out of Okinawa. But they are looking at repositioning
the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force from its current
locations in Okinawa, Hawaii and Guam. The Pentagon
is hoping to possibly re-establish bases or locations
in the Philippines, although it is not clear how receptive
the Philippines government will be. The Pentagon is
also considering bases or staging areas in northeast
Australia, where the US military has close ties and
excellent training relationships with the Australian
military. But one official said he doubted any forthcoming
agreements would call for US Marines to be permanently
based there.
Blair, Bush Lose Face over Iraq’s ‘mobile
labs’
George Bush and Tony Blair face a fresh crisis over
Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction,
as evidence emerges that two vehicles that they have
repeatedly claimed to be Iraqi mobile biological warfare
production units are nothing of the sort. The intelligence
agency MI6, British Defence officers and technical
experts from the Porton Down microbiological research
establishment have been ordered to conduct an urgent
review of the mobile facilities, following US analysis
which casts serious doubt on whether they really are
germ labs.
The British review comes amid widespread doubts expressed
by scientists on both sides of the Atlantic that the
trucks could have been used to make biological weapons.
Instead, it is increasingly likely that the units
were designed to be used for hydrogen production to
fill artillery balloons, part of a system originally
sold to Saddam by Britain in 1987.
The
British review follows access by UK officials to the
vehicles which were discovered by US troops in April
and May. The claim, however, that the two vehicles
are mobile germ labs has been repeated frequently
by both Blair and George Bush in recent days in support
of claims that they prove the existence of Iraq’s
weapons of mass destruction.
During
his tour of the Gulf, Europe and Russia, Blair repeatedly
briefed journalists that the trailers were germ production
labs which proved that Iraq had WMD. But chemical
weapons experts, engineers, chemists and military
systems experts contacted by The Observer over the
past week say the layout and equipment found on the
trailers is entirely inconsistent with the vehicles
being mobile labs. Both US Secretary of State Colin
Powell, when he addressed the UN Security Council
prior to the war, and the British Government alleged
that Saddam had such labs.
A
separate investigation published by the New York Times
discloses that the trailers have now been investigated
by three different teams of Western experts, with
the third and most senior group of analysts apparently
divided sharply over their function. “I have
no great confidence that it’s a fermenter,”
a senior analyst said of a tank supposed to be capable
of multiplying seed germs into lethal swarms. The
government’s public report, he said, “was
a rushed job and looks political”. The analyst
had not seen the trailers, but reviewed evidence from
them.
Another intelligence expert who has seen the trailers
told the US paper: “Everyone has wanted to find
the ‘smoking gun’ so much that they may
have wanted to have reached this conclusion. I am
very upset with the process.”
Questions over the claimed purpose of the trailer for
making biological weapons include:
(1)
The lack of any trace of pathogens found in the fermentation
tanks. According to experts, when weapons inspectors
checked tanks in the mid-Nineties that had been scoured
to disguise their real use, traces of pathogens were
still detectable.
(2)
The use of canvas sides on vehicles where technicians
would be working with dangerous germ cultures.
(3)
A shortage of pumps that are required to create vacuum
conditions for working with germ cultures and other
processes usually associated with making biological
weapons.
(4)
The lack of an autoclave for steam sterilization, normally
a prerequisite for any kind of biological production.
Its lack of availability between production runs would
threaten to let in germ contaminants, resulting in failed
weapons.
(5)
The lack of any easy way for technicians to remove germ
fluids from the processing tank.
Draft
EU Constitution Adopted
A landmark Convention on the Future of Europe adopted
the first draft constitution for an enlarged European
Union by consensus, 46 years after the founding Treaty
of Rome was signed. However, a majority of the 28 participating
governments tarnished the celebration by signalling
they would fight in negotiations later this year to
preserve complex voting rules that give small states
power disproportionate to their population. Key reforms
include the appointment of a long-term president of
the European Council for up to five years, replacing
the current rotating presidency, under which each member
state takes the helm for six months. The draft proposes
an EU foreign minister and a slimmed-down executive
European Commission of 15 full members, based on the
principle of strict rotation to ensure equality of states.
It foresees much more majority decision-making.
Reflecting fears of many in the Convention that governments
will try to water down the text, Antonio Vitorino, the
European Commissioner for Justice and Home Affairs,
said the reforms were essential as a whole for an effective
EU. Amid the general euphoria, Jens-Peter Bonde, a Eurosceptic
Danish member of the European Parliament, sounded a
dissonant note, saying the constitution would lead to
an EU “super state” of which the real losers
were their own peoples.
On the other hand, Commission President Romano Prodi,
a Roman Catholic, lamented the lack of any reference
in the draft constitution’s preamble to God or
Christianity, though the text does speak of Europe’s
“cultural, religious and humanist inheritance”.
“To ignore 1,500 years of civilization is to create
a vacuum in our consciousness, in our identity as Europeans,”
he said. Several federally-minded members of the Convention
voiced regret that the draft left intact member states’
right of veto on foreign policy and taxation issues.
Britain had resisted any dilution of this right. One
issue that is sure to feature in the IGC is an unresolved
dispute over the future system for majority voting .
UK Decides Against Joining Euro
Britain
ruled out joining the Euro, common EU currency for
now, but surprised critics by saying it may take another
look at the divisive currency debate next year. Chancellor
of the Exchequer (finance minister) Gordon Brown told
parliament Britain would not benefit at the moment
from adopting the EU single currency, saying four
of the five tests he set in 1997 had not been met.
But in surprisingly enthusiastic comments, he also
outlined the government’s vision in principle
for signing up at a future date to the currency already
adopted by 12 of the 15 EU members.
Mr. Brown added that the tests could be re-examined
early next year and, if positive then, would lead
to a referendum. According to the policy, “
the government’s view is that if the economic
case is clear and unambiguous, then the constitutional
issue, while a factor in the decision, should not
be a bar to entry. If on the basis of the five economic
tests, membership of the Euro is shown as good for
sustaining British jobs, British business and British
future prosperity, then it is economically right and
in the national interest to join.” Analysts
say the Euro verdict is a carefully concocted compromise
between Mr. Brown’s fear of jeopardizing his
domestic economic record, and Mr. Blair’s belief
that Britain’s “destiny” is to adopt
the currency and take a place at the heart of Europe.
Studies released by the British Treasury highlighted
the key obstacles to Britain joining the Euro now.
Running to over 1,700 pages, Britain’s housing
market made it more sensitive to interest rate changes
and that progress on labour market flexibility in
the European Union lagged.
Furthermore, Britain’s economy remained
more in tune with that of the United States than the
EU. On the positive side, the studies said there were
clear potential benefits in terms of greater trade
with the EU, should Britain swap currencies.
Special
Emphasis on Terrorism
The
al-Qaida Threat to
USA
and other countries
USA
Following
a report that terrorists planned to attack US interests
in Kenya, the US embassy in Nairobi was closed for an
indefinite period on June 20. Pentagon officials have
however said that the US embassy was not specifically
named and the closure was just a precautionary measure.
South
America
71
employees of an Argentinean firm engaged in a construction
project in Peru were kidnapped on June 9.
Europe
In the first week of June the French police arrested
two men suspected of being members of al-Qaida. An unidentified
man threw two homemade bombs in the garden of the US
consulate in the southern Turkish city of Adana on June
11. An illegal arms cache was discovered and seized
on June 10 by the German police. In a suicide bomb attack
on June 5 at least 15 people were killed when a bus,
carrying about 40 passengers, blew up en route from
the North Ossetian city of Mozdok to Prokhladnoye in
Russia. On June 5, the Belgian government announced
that it had arrested an Iraqi national suspected of
sending envelopes containing nerve gas to Belgian government
offices and the US, British and Saudi embassies in Brussels.
The French police released a study on June 2 indicating
that ETA cells operating in France have moved further
to the north, most likely because of the numerous arrests
of their cadre in the traditional Basque area near the
border. The
report says ETA has regrouped in cities such as Bordeaux,
where several key arrests have already been made, Lyon,
Toulouse, and Paris.
In
a new development, the United Nations has included
Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, the former President of Chechnya,
in its list of people having ties to the al-Qaida.
Authorities in Kyrgyz say they have
uncovered a huge cache of weapons in the Batken
area. The weapons, said to be of Russian, Iran and
Pakistan origin, are believed to have been stored
by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) for
future use.
Chechen militants with ties to al-Qaida have been
blamed by the Russian authorities for the June 19
land mine explosion under a police bus that killed
three people and injured seven. Officials say the
land mine was activated by remote control. According
to a Georgian interior ministry spokesman, police
in Tblisi have found two boxes containing cesium
137 and strontium 90 and nerve gas concentrate.
In Tajikistan, authorities have arrested 20 persons
suspected to be members of Hizb ul-Tahrir. According
to the authorities membership of the Hizb ul-Tahrir
is increasing. In Italy following raids by the police
in Milan on June 24, six persons suspected to be
Islamic extremists were arrested. The six include
one Moroccan and five Tunisians.
As part of its tough stance against
Muslim extremism, the Dutch government has passed
tough laws. The laws empower the government to ban
extremist groups and enable prosecutors to use confidential
state intelligence in court. Two members of Italy’s
Red Brigade were arrested on June 23 in Paris, France
following a request by Italian judges. France has
been favoured as a safe haven by members of the
Red Brigade but France has changed its policy of
providing asylum. In Spain the Basque group ETA
claimed responsibility for a bomb attack on a hotel
in Bilbao on June 23.
The Albanian National
Army is blamed for two bomb blasts on June 22 in
a commercial area of Skopje, Macedonia. In France
two suspected members of al-Qaida were arrested
at Charles de Gaulle airport. In Russia 55 persons
have been arrested by the Federal Security Force
on suspicion of being members of the Hizb ul-Tahrir.
In France Police conducted raids in Paris and arrested
159 Iranians belonging to the National Council of
Resistance of Iran (NCRI). NCRI’s military
wing, the People’s Mujahideen has been declared
by the European Union as a terrorist group. Two
van bombs, each containing more than 1,000 pounds
of explosives, were seized in Londonderry, Northern
Ireland on June 15, and in Ireland on June 13. The
Spanish Basque ETA has been blamed for a bomb explosion
that damaged a Spanish school in Rome on June 17.
On June 14, Spanish police defused a car bomb in
Bilbao that contained 66 pounds of explosives packed
inside a pressure cooker connected to a timer.
Middle East
In Saudi Arabia Yousuf Saleh el-Eiery was killed
in a shoot-out with local police on May 31. According
to reports, al-Eiery and an accomplice had attacked
a police party by throwing grenades which resulted
in the death of two officers. A Frenchman, Robert
Antoine-Pierre was arrested in Tangiers by the Moroccan
police on suspicion of involvement in the May 16
attack in Casablanca. Saudi officials revealed that
they have in custody Ali Abd al-Rahman al-Faqasi
al-Ghamdi believed to be one of the top al-Qaida
members in Saudi Arabia. Al-Ghamdi is believed to
be involved in the May 26 attack on the expatriate
housing complexes in Riyadh and Saudi officials
hope that he will identify other al-Qaida members
in the country. Saudi Arabia and Yemen decided to
cooperate with each other in a bid to control terrorism
and arms smuggling. Arms smuggling poses a mutual
problem and has been the cause of some tensions
between the two countries. Violence has once again
erupted in Israel. Following Israel’s attempt
to assassinate Dr Abdul Aziz Rantissi, a Hamas leader
as well as an increase in attacks against Palestinians,
Hamas has stepped up its attacks against Israeli
targets.
Asia- Pacific
As part of its campaign against terrorists, the
Australian government announced on June 1 that it
planned to give airport security officers greater
power to search, detain and question anyone who
acted in a suspicious manner. However airlines are
apprehensive that such a move could add two hours
to boarding time, resulting in delayed flights.
East Asia/ south East Asia
Cesium-137 was again involved when a Thai police
arrested a Thai in Bangkok for trying to sell this
radio-active material. The man arrested claims he
obtained the material from Laos and said he had
no connection to terrorists. In China, a small,
homemade bomb exploded in a restroom of a McDonald’s
restaurant in the northwestern city of Xi’an
the afternoon of June 15. Following a tip five Indonesians,
carrying a bomb, were arrested on June 17 by police
in the Philippines. The Swedish embassy in Jakarta,
Indonesia, was closed indefinitely on June 3 after
receiving threats and Swedish nationals were asked
to take extra precautions.10 more suspected members
of the Jemaah Islamiah (JI) have been arrested by
the Indonesian police for involvement in the October
2002 bomb attacks in Bali. The arrest on May 16
in Bangkok of Arifin bin Ali (alias John Wong Ah
Hung) a Singapore national led to the arrest of
three Thai nationals. Arifin is suspected of heading
an earlier Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) plan to crash a
plane at Changi Airport (Singapore) that was, however,
foiled.
During
interrogation by the Singapore authorities Arifin
gave the names of three Thais who he said were his
accomplices in the Changi Airport plot. These three
Thai nationals arrested by Thai authorities on June
10 include a medical doctor, a Muslim teacher and
his son. This is the first instance of Thai nationals
being linked to the JI which is said to be planning
attacks against western foreign missions and tourist
areas in Thailand. The Muslim teacher and his son
have confessed to membership of JI while the doctor
has admitted to making false passports for JI members
but claimed not be a member of JI. The Thai police
are monitoring several others suspected of involvement
in the plot but no arrests have been made. In Cambodia
on June 11 police arrested a 23-year-old Muslim
Cambodian national suspected of having ties to the
Jemaah Islamiah and by implication to al-Qaida.
The trial of Ali Gufron, the alleged operations
chief of the Jemaah Islamiah (JI) network held responsible
for the October 2002 bomb attacks in Bali, is scheduled
to begin on June 16, 2003 in Indonesia. The arrest
by the Philippines’ authorities in May of
Saifullah Yunos (or Mukhlis Yonus) of the Moro Islamic
Liberation Front (MILF) and his confession has confirmed
ties between MILF and the Jemaah Islamiah, therefore
by extension to al-Qaida.
The Philippines government has already warned the
MILF to sever ties with foreign extremist groups
and to stop its attacks on civilians in Mindanao
or be declared a terrorist group.
South Asia/ SAARC
In Pakistan, police arrested five members of the
banned Lashkar-e-Jhangvi following a raid in Multan
on June 22. Those arrested are said to be involved
in the kidnap and murder of Daniel Pearl. Of those
arrested one is a local leader wanted for attacks
on Shias as well as police. The LeJ was banned by
the Pakistan government in 2001.
A
medical student from Sudan was arrested on June
25 by police in Bangladesh. Police have given no
details but the Sudanese is said to have al-Qaida
links. A local leader of the Awami League, the main
opposition party in Bangladesh, was killed on June
23 by members of the banned Purba Bangla Communist
Party.
According
to reports the politician was in a shop when he
was attacked with iron bars and knives. In Quetta,
Pakistan twelve trainee policemen were gunned down
on June 8, 2003 around 4:50 PM as they were on their
way to the Police Training School. All twelve belonged
to the Shia community.
Africa
Following the extradition of five people, suspected
to be al-Qaida members, to the USA, people took
to the streets in Malawi in protest on June 27,
setting fire to a church.
Regional
Pakistan-India Relations
Prospects for dialogue between India and Pakistan
have suffered due to many moves taken by the Indian
authorities. India opposed Pakistan’s entry
into the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). Moreover, during
the talks between visiting Deputy Prime Minister
L K Advani and US Attorney General John Ashcroft
in Washington on June 10, 2003, it has handed over
to the United States certain documents relating
to Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. According to the
Deputy Premier, “certain papers that we had
which we felt could be shared with America, we handed
over to Ashcroft.”
Describing
Pakistan as the “epicentre of international
terrorism” Mr. Advani said on June 12 that
India and the US should work together to defeat
the menace, which is a “threat not only to
the security of the two countries but to peace and
tranquillity around the world.” At a time
when efforts are being made to clean the air for
purposeful dialogue, such statements that reflect
the past set positions are not welcome.
Pakistan
on the other hand warned the West not to allow India
to develop a military superiority that would leave
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal as its “only
real deterrent”. President Gen Pervez Musharraf
said it was not the time for crisis management but
conflict resolution for a lasting peace in South
Asia because another conflict would be unthinkable.
Stating
Pakistan’s position on Kashmir, President
Musharraf said Kashmir should be resolved in line
with UN resolutions, as it had bedevilled peace
and progress in the region. He said Pakistan was
ready to take four steps if India took one towards
establishing a lasting peace in the region. He asserted
that “Pakistan will make its full and honest
contribution to, and will not be found wanting in
arriving at, a just and honourable settlement of
the Kashmir dispute.” It is also notable that
Musharraf’s proposal to have a roadmap for
Kashmir peace like in Middle East was rejected by
India.
Good intentions from both the sides to improve relations
should be met with deeds and policies that facilitate
peace process instead of aggravating tension. Whatever
internal compulsion there may be the two governments
to assert old positions (many analysts argue that
such remarks are aimed to appease hard liners),
it should not be allowed to reach a stage where
the momentum of peace is lost.
Sino-India Relations
A very significant development in the regional security
environment was Prime Minister Vajpayee’s
visit to China where both countries decided to shun
their differences in full letter and spirit. Both
countries signed a joint declaration that calls
for cooperation and commercial links. Significantly
they decided to open part of their disputed Himalayan
territory for transaction.
The
visit can be better understood in a broader international
security environment. A regional block with the
thawing of relations between China, India, Russia
and to an extent Iran is in offing that, in due
course of time will surely be very counter-productive
for US supremacy. India is playing its card very
wisely and knitting itself with countries that will
be leading players of tomorrow’s world.
Pakistan-US
Relations
President Pervez Musharraf’s visit to the
US was the most important development of the week
that clearly shows the US effort to bolster President
Musharraf’s position as evident from his visit
to Camp David, making him the first South Asian
leader to be accorded that honour. Although the
Pakistan Government propagated the visit as being
very important to regional peace and security and
to Pakistan’s benefit, many critics argue
that it is in the interest of President Musharraf
to strengthen his rule. President Bush praised Musharraf’s
policies and also announced a US$ 3 billion aid
package. However, the package is tied to an annual
review of Pakistan’s cooperation in the war
on terrorism, control of the spread of nuclear weapons
and strengthening of democracy at home. Quoting
a senior official in the Bush administration, the
Washington Post reported the package would be evenly
divided over five years and is part of a “long-term
commitment” by Presidents Bush and Gen Musharraf
based on specific goals the two countries agreed
on. The package still has to be approved by Congress;
nonetheless, the prospects for congressional approval
are favourable. The assistance plan would help the
Bush administration “maintain pressure on
President Musharraf to take concrete steps that
would seal his promises to help combat Al Qaida,
stem the transfer of weapon technologies and restore
democracy,” the report said. Half of the amount
of the package will be spent on budget thus, which
sector would be the beneficiary is not difficult
to imagine. Unfortunately at a time when other security
blocks are being formed to counter balance of power,
Pakistan should have reshuffled its priorities instead
of leaning too much towards the US. It’s decision
to send its troops in Iraq is also not a welcome
step especially in the light of fact that President
Musharraf chose the foreign media to announce this
decision. It is bound to create insecurity at home.
India Recognizes Tibet Part of China
India officially recognized Tibet as a part of China
in a joint declaration signed on June 21 by Indian
Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Chinese
Premier Wen Jiabao, as the two neighbours tried
to close the door on long-standing disputes and
chart a new relationship. Ties between the Asian
giants have for decades been plagued by tensions
over issues such as Tibet and the two countries
fought a bitter border conflict in 1962.
US-India Relations
According to a report in one of the leading dailies,
the US and India are discussing a plan that will
give New Delhi a greater role in Asia and bring
about a major geo-political change in the region.
According to this plan, India will be given the
responsibility to maintain stability in South Asia
and may also be asked to increase its presence in
Southeast Asia to counter the growing Chinese influence.
The sources said that the US Pacific Command, which
controls US troops in the Southeast Asian region,
also wants to share lesser responsibilities with
the Indian Navy. This could include patrolling commercial
sea routes, such as the Strait of Malacca and the
Gulf of Aden, where piracy is a major problem. However,
this proposal is opposed by the US Central Command,
which is responsible for America’s military
presence in the Middle East and Central Asia, including
Pakistan and Afghanistan. The CENTCOM believes that
such a move could undermine America’s relations
with Pakistan.
Despite
these differences, of more important for US policy
planners is India’s concern about China’s
growth both as a military and economic power, a
concern that also worries the Bush administration.
They point out that in 1962 India lost territory
to China and, therefore, could be a natural ally
in the US efforts to contain China. India is apprehensive
of the naval facilities China is building on both
sides of the subcontinent. In Myanmar it is modernizing
naval bases on the Bay of Bengal while in Pakistan
it is developing the port of Gwadar, seen by Delhi
as a potential threat to India’s sea communications.
It
is also important to note that senior US and Indian
military advisers gathered at the Pentagon to discuss
common US and Indian interests in this region. According
to the US media, the discussions focused on setting
up a formal Defence alliance between the US and
India that would be open to other western-aligned
East Asian countries such as Singapore, South Korea
and perhaps Japan. Diplomatic observers believe
that if such an alliance were formed, it would augment
the enormous shift in the correlation of forces
already under way in Asia.
Armament
* India successfully test-fired its medium range
surface-to-air Akash missile from the Chandipur
testing range off its eastern coast. The missile,
first tested in July 2000, was most recently test-fired
on May 29 and June 2. Akash can carry a 50kg warhead
and can simultaneously track several targets.
* India test-fired its homegrown short-range surface-to-air
Trishul missile from Orissa. The missile –
test-fired successfully from a mobile launcher and
one of the five developed by India’s Defence
Research and Development Organization since 1983
– is powered by solid fuel and can deliver
a 15-kilogram warhead up to nine kilometres away.
The missile is being developed for the army, navy
and air force.
Afghanistan
Operations are being stepped up by the coalition
forces in south Afghanistan as this area remains
the hub of Taliban/al-Qaida activities. The Afghan
government has also indicated that most of the terrorist
attacks are being conducted from the southern parts
of the country. UN Special Representative Lakhdar
Brahimi told the Security Council that the issue
of security casts a long shadow over the whole peace
process and indeed over the future of Afghanistan.
The
security situation outside Kabul may not be improved
without the expansion of ISAF to other parts of
Afghanistan as it is strongly believed that the
Taliban are not the only source of disruption. The
strong ethnic factions which are part of the government
are a constant irritant for the government. If the
US is serious about stability it will have to take
on spoilers within the government, including some
of those the US armed to fight the Taliban/al-Qaida.
The
Afghan Vice President Hedayat Amin Arsala reaffirmed
his government’s calls for expansion of the
international peace-keeping force inside Afghanistan
saying that disarmament was a must for peace. He
also said that the expansion of the peacekeeping
force would also allow an expansion of provincial
reconstruction teams. He stressed for a proper national
army and a well-trained national police for a stable
Afghanistan. Babra Stapleton, the Advocacy Coordinator
for the Kabul based Academy Coordination Body for
Afghan Relief (ACBAR) said that the incident in
Konduz was a worrying development and that “we
have made our opinion clear regarding the deteriorating
security situation”. The security situation
across Afghanistan has steadily deteriorated in
2003.
Kabul’s
law and order situation took a nosedive after a
suicide car bomber killed four German peacekeepers
on a busy Kabul street. Attacks against US forces
in Southern Afghanistan have become more common
but this was the first attack to have killed international
peacekeepers in Kabul which raises serious concerns
about the growing confidence of Al-Qaida and other
groups opposed to the US-backed Afghan government.
This attack has reopened debate on whether the international
security force in Kabul should expand operations
to other parts of the country. President Karzai
has also backed moves for such an expansion. United
Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan has also suggested
that ISAF troops be also deployed in Herat, Mazar
Sharif and Jalalabad. On economic front, the Afghanistan
Government has collected US$ 20 million from Herat
province through a team led by the Afghan Finance
Minister. On his return the FM stated that the funds,
which were collected from provinces, had allowed
about US$ 7 million worth of back pay to be released
to the military. He said that US$ 1.5 million was
collected from Nangarhar province while Nimroz province
had promised to release US$ 1.5 million; the other
eight provinces visited by finance officials turned
over smaller amounts, less than a million US dollars
each. While the provinces were cooperative with
the Kabul officials in handing over a proportion
of their income, according to the Afghan Finance
Ministry this represents only a small percentage
of their real income.
India: Internal Dynamics
Secessionist Movements within India
The extremely repressive policy that India has pursued
against its own people over the years has spawned
a large number of secessionist movements within
the country which are fighting for independence.
The largest democracy now has the dubious distinction
of being host to more than 12 such movements; some
put the figure at 17. The following are some of
the organizations that are waging a struggle for
separate homelands:-
Assam
(1)
United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)
(2)
National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB),
(3)
United People’s Democratic Solidarity (UPDS),
(4)
Bodo Liberation Tiger Force (BLTF),
(5)
Dima Halim Daogah (DHD),
(6)
Adivasi Security Force (ASF),
(7)
All Assam Adivasi Suraksha Samiti (AAASS),
(8)
Gorkha Tiger Force (GTF),
(9)
Barak Valley Youth Liberation (BVYLF),
(10)
Kamatapar Liberation Organization (KLO),
(11) Hmar People’s Convention-Democracy (HPC-D),
(12)
Karbi National Security Force (RNSF),
(13) Rabha
National Security Force (RNSF),
(14) Koch Rajbongshi Liberation Organization
(KRLO),
(15)
Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA),
(16)
Muslim United Liberation Front of Assam (MULFA),
(17)
Muslim Security Council of Assam (MSCA),
(18)
United Liberation Militia of Assam (ULMA),
(19)
Islamic Sevak Sangh (ISS),
(20)
People’s United Liberation Front (PULF) and
many others.
Manipur
(1)
Manipur People’s Liberation Front (MPLF),
(2)
Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP),
(3)
Kangei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL),
(4)
Manipur Liberation Tiger Army (MLTA),
(5)
Iripak Kanba Lup (IKL),
(6)
People’s Republican Army (PRA)
(7)
National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah
(NSCN-IM),
(8)
Hmar People’s Convention-Democracy (HPC-D),
(9)
Kuki National Front (KNF),
(10)
Kuki National Army (KNA),
(11)
Kuki Revolutionary Army (KRA),
(12)
Kuki National Organization (KNO),
(13)
Kuki Independent Army (KIA),
(14)
Indigenous People’s Revolutionary Alliance
(IRPA),
(15)
United Islamic Liberation Army (UILA),
(16)
North East Minority Front (NEMF),
(17)
Islamic National Front (INF) and many others.
Meghalaya
(1)
Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC),
(2)
Achik National Volunteer Council (ANVC),
(3)
People’s Liberation Front of Meghalaya (PLF-M),
(4)
Hajong United Liberation Army (HULA) and others.
Nagaland
(1)
National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Miuvah)
(NSCN(M)
(2)
Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang)
(NSCN(K),
(3)
Naga National Council (Adino) (NNC(Adino)
Punjab
(1)
Babbar Khalsa International (BKI),
(2)
International Sikh Youth Federation (ISYF),
(3)
Khalistan Commando Force (KCF),
(4)
Khalistan National Army (KNA),
(5)
Bhindrawala Tigers Force of Khalistan (BTFK),
(6)
Khalistan Liberation Organization (KLO) and others.
Tripura
(1)
National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT),
(2)
All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF),
(3)
Tripura Liberation Organization Front (TLOF),
(4)
United Bengali Liberation Front (UBLF),
(5)
Bangla Mukti Sena (BMS),
(6)
Socialist Democratic Front of Tripura (SDFT),
(7)
Tripura Armed Tribal Commando Force (TATCF),
(8)
Tripura Liberation Force (TLF),
(9)
National Militia of Tripura (NMT),
(10)
All Tripura Bengali Regiment,
(11)
Borok National Council of Tripura (BNCT),
(12)
All Tripura Bharat Suraksha Force (ATBSF) and many
others.
Mizoram
(1)
Bru National Liberation Front (BNLF) and
(2)
Hmar People’s Convention-Democracy (HPC(D).
Arunachal Pradesh
Arunachal
Dragon Force (ADF)
Left-wing
(1)
People’s Guerrilla Army (PGA,
(2)
People’s War Group (PGW),
(3)
Maoist Communist Centre (MCC) and others.
Others
(1)
Tamil National Retrieval Troops (TNRT),
(2)
Akhil Bharat Nepali Ekta Samaj (ABNES),
(3)
Tamil Nadu Liberation Army (TNLA),
(4)
Kamatapur Liberation Organization (KLO)
(5)
Ranvir Sena
(6)
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and
others.
Revival of Khalistan Movement
On
June 6, 2003 on the occasion of the annual ‘Ghallughara
Divas’ (Martyrs Day) which marks the anniversary
of the ham-handed Operation Blue Star, the Shiromani
Gurdwara Prabandhak Committee (SGPC) declared Jarnail
Singh Bhindranwale a ‘martyr of Sikh history’.
Bhindranwale was the man who initiated and led the bloody
freedom movement between 1978 and 1984, when he was
killed in the Golden Temple. The declaration of martyrdom came
from the Akal Takht, the highest seat of temporal power
in the Sikh Faith.
The
Akali Dal is a partner in the BJP-led ruling coalition
and the move to confer a martyr’s status on
Bhindranwale, perceived as a terrorist leader by India,
has embarrassed the BJP, which dismissed it as an
“unfortunate announcement”. There is little
evidence of any of the political formations in Punjab
responding seriously to the event – and in isolation,
it is indeed of little significance. However, a combination
of factors suggests that there is a concerted pattern
indicating a revival of the movement. It is significant
that the SGPC has chosen to associate itself with
the commemoration of Martyrs Day for the first time
this year. The adoption of the Nanak Shahi calendar
on April 13, 2002 – which establishes a separate
‘Sikh era’ commencing with the date of
birth of Guru Nanak, and which is regarded by many
as a move to deepen the communal divide between Hindu
and Sikh in Punjab – is another event that points
to the politics of communal polarization being revived.
More significantly, some of the most outspoken and
active members of the Khalistan movement have taken
the ‘surrender route’ or have simply returned
to the Punjab, unhindered and unquestioned. Most prominent
among these are Jagit Singh Chohan and Wassan Singh
Zaffarwal. Chohan was the President of the Khalistan
‘government in exile’ and returned back
to India in June 2001 after 25 years in London, while
Zaffarwal is the former head of the Khalistan Commando
Force. Chohan has been reported as delivering inflammatory
speeches on the occasion mentioned above.
This
is not all. After nearly a decade of silence, the ‘human
rights’ platform is again being activated by various
organizations; a book was published this year alleging
violation of human rights in Punjab by the “Committee
for Coordination on Disappearances in Punjab’.
The BBC radio also recently aired a programme on alleged
human rights violations. All these loose strands could
point to a possible revival in the separatist movement
for Khalistan.
An
Indian Army Hoax
The
Indian Army’s Operation Sarp Vinash (Snake Destroyer)
in the Hil Kaka area of Surankote in the Poonch district
had appeared as a shining example of military ‘innovation,
intelligence and enterprise’, and newspapers
and television channels have since been saturated
with reports of this ‘high profile’ counter
terrorist operation. One newspaper, whose correspondent
had yet to visit the area, spoke of terrorists occupying
a ‘Karnal-style area’. (Karnal is a mid-sized
town in Harayana with a population of over 1.3 million);
others spoke of Kargil-type intrusions, concrete bunkers,
training camps and prepared killing fields. The Army’s
spin was that a major terrorist threat, which could
have crippled Indian lines of communication in case
of a war, had been interdicted. The media had let
it be known that a great victory had been won in the
face of overwhelming odds and Union Defence Minister;
George Fernandes had announced that he would ensure
more Sarp Vinash style operations take place in the
near future.
Now
here’s the unhappy truth: the media version of
Operation Sarp Vinash is a hoax unprecedented in the
annals of the Indian Army. It is difficult to ascertain
just what the Army’s authorized version of Operation
Sarp Vinash actually is because officials have put out
irreconcilable figures and accounts from behind a dense
veil of anonymity. The Times of India first reported
on a major offensive in the Surankote area on May 17
that “the army had killed 60 hard core militants
in the Surankote area proximate of the LoC in Jammu
and Kashmir,” and had “also seized a huge
quantity of assault rifles, mortars, grenades, rocket-propelled
grenades and under-barrel grenade launchers, among other
war like stores”. The very next day, The Asian
Age said involved Russian-built M-17 helicopters, mainly
to evacuate casualties. On May 19, The Tribune went
one step further, asserting that the Army had killed
“180 Pakistani terrorists and foreign mercenaries
in the past 45 days when for the first time it launched
an operation to free the high mountainous positions
in Jammu and Kashmir which had so far been a haven for
ultras”.
All
these early reports did not cite any on-record sources
and Operation Sarp Vinash was not mentioned. It first
appeared in the Jammu-based Excelsior on May 21, citing
anonymous defence sources that “the operation
had been carried out from April 21 to May 8 to clear
a bulge at Hil Kaka where hardcore Pakistani groups
like Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar, Al Badr and Hizbul
Mujahideen had set up fortifications in a large area
of strategic importance to interdict Indian Army supply
lines.” Meanwhile reports of helicopters strikes
and terrorist-held fortifications had provoked hysteria
among New Delhi-based journalists. Finally, on May
20, Army Chief Gen NC Vij tried to calm things down.
The next morning’s Tribune quoted him as denying
“that helicopter gunships had been used to flush
out the terrorists”.
On May 23, the GOC of the Romeo Force, Maj Gen Hardev
Lidder proceeded to rubbish Vij’s claims asserting
that “helicopters were used to destroy a bunker
used by the ultras in the Hil Kaka area and 40 to
60 terrorist were killed.” The Excelsior reported
him as saying that the “hideouts busted were
almost like military fortifications, where militants
had stored a large cache of arms, war like stores
and 7000 tons of rations. The fortifications were
designed on the pattern of Osama bin Laden’s
Al Qaida hideouts in mountains near Jalalabad and
some located as high as 3989 meters had to be targeted
by helicopter fired air-to-ground ‘frog’
high fragmentation missiles.” Broadly, the Army
had made three major claims viz
(1)
It had killed between 40 to 60 terrorists in and around
Hil Kaka (depending on who one believed),
(2) It had found large hoard of war-like stores
and weaponry and
(3)
It had destroyed some 90 major fortified hideouts
using air power and infantry resources.
What
then of Operation Sarp Vinash’s supposed success?
The lie is nailed by the Army’s own documents,
filed with the local police, stating how many terrorists
it has killed and weapons recovered. The seven documents
filed with the police collectively claim the elimination
of just 27 terrorists and even this figure is open to
dispute because photographic evidence of all the 27
killed, a necessity for the police FIR, is not available.
The Army documents also declare the recovery of 4 Pika-type
machine guns, a sniper rifle, 9 assault rifles and one
60-mm mortar. The total food ration shown recovered
was not 7000 tonnes but a paltry 355 kgs and just 30-odd
cooking utensils, 27 boxes and 57 mat-sheets. Could
this store have catered for a high estimate of 27 terrorists?
The
Indian Army continues to indulge in creative jugglery
and “a great deal of imagination” to distort
facts so that the mass hysteria that has been created
about terrorist roaming freely does not whither away
among the Indian media and the populace. Operation
Sarp Vinash was intended to kill the ‘snakes’
that are perceived to threaten India’s integrity.
So far, its principal victim has been the truth.
Deaths
during June 2003 related most to the struggle for
independence by various groups within India were as
follows:-
-
|
Civilian deaths |
Indian Security Personnel |
Total |
| Assam |
67 |
3 |
70 |
| Left Wing |
31 |
10 |
41 |
| Manipur |
9 |
3 |
12 |
| Meghalaya |
4 |
Nil |
4 |
| Tripura |
7 |
Nil |
7 |
| Delhi |
1 |
Nil |
1 |
| Total |
119 |
16 |
135 |
Local
(1)
Political Matters
(1)
Speaker Rules LFO Part of ConstitutionThe
Speaker of the NA, Chaudhry Aamir Hussain on June 14
ruled that the LFO was part of the 1973 Constitution
and that the amendments made in the Constitution through
the LFO remain within the parameters laid down by the
Supreme Court (SC). The SC judgment in Syed Zafar Ali
Shah’s case held that the chief executive is entitled
to perform all functions and promulgate all legislative
measures that are in accordance with or could have been
made under the 1973 Constitution, including the power
to amend it. The Speaker ruled that the Constitution
was rightly amended through the LFO on the basis of
the SC decision and all amendments made to the Constitution
were valid.
The
Speaker’s ruling has greatly incensed the combined
opposition who demanded the Speaker’s resignation
failing which they announced to move a no-confidence
motion against him for his “partial” ruling
validating Legal Framework Order (LFO) as part of
1973 Constitution. The joint opposition charged that
the Speaker was brought under pressure by the government
to give such a ruling.
Analysis
It is difficult to comprehend either the reason or
compulsion of the National Assembly speaker in handing
out a categorical ruling on the controversial question
of the status of the Legal Framework Order. This move
has caught the opposition (and many others) by surprise
coming as it did out of nowhere. The announcement
comes at a time when the government and the opposition
are still engaged in negotiations over the contentious
amendment package and even though a settlement has
not been reached, the talks have not at least been
formally called off.
The
combined opposition may now find itself in a somewhat
sticky situation since they had stated that they were
taking oath under the Constitution as it stood on
October 12, 1999 before Gen Musharraf’s takeover.
If they now participate in further proceedings it
may tantamount to implicitly acknowledging the LFO.
Anyway as far as the Speaker’s ruling is concerned,
it does not legalize the LFO, is only means that the
Speaker will use the LFO-amended Constitution for
the business of the House. The legality (or otherwise)
of the LFO rests with the SC which had reserved to
itself the right to review whether the CE’s
amendments violated the basic structure of the Constitution.
The
Speaker also made it a point to further state that
the major political parties had contested the general
elections under the conduct of General Elections Order
2002 and none of them had filed a petition before
the SC to assail any provision of the LFO. Thus many
provisions of the LFO have been implemented and acted
upon.
To
add more drama to the event, some opposition parties
are now seriously thinking of challenging the Speaker’s
ruling in a court of law and a decision may be expected
during the next few days as currently the lawyers
are examining all aspects of the matter before.
(2) No-trust Motion against NA Speaker
The combined opposition in the National Assembly submitted
a no-confidence motion against Speaker Chaudhry Amir
Hussain to the assembly secretary on Friday, June
20. The motion has been filed under Rule 12 of the
Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business of the
National Assembly because the Speaker had “transgressed
his authority by giving a ruling on the Constitution
and thereby undermining the sovereignty of the house
which was beyond his purview regarding the LFO’s
status vis-à-vis the Constitution”. MMA
believes that the opposition has no option but to
file the no-trust move against the speaker which was
its constitutional right because the speaker had no
powers to give a ruling on constitutional matters.
However, the speaker survived the move.
Analysis
As per the rules it is expected that the next session
may be held on or after June 28 when votes would be
cast by secret balloting . In the meantime the ruling
party is making all arrangements to defend the Speaker
and it has challenged the opposition to muster support
of 172 MNAs. PML(Q) MNAs who are currently outside
of the country have been asked to rush back before
June 28 when the NA session will be convened to debate
the issue of no-confidence. PML(Q) members feel that
the MMA by these actions is trying to portray Pakistan
to the outside world as a country on the verge of
destabilization and to embarrass Gen Musharraf who
is currently on a four-nation tour, including the
US.
As things stand, it may be expected that the no-trust
motion will be defeated.
(3) People against Talibanization of Society
- President
President Musharraf while speaking at a reception
of the Lahore Bar Association on June 8, where he
received a standing ovation, spoke strongly against
attempts at Talibanization of society adding that
the people wanted a progressive, enlightened and dynamic
Islamic state of Pakistan in line with the “vision
of the founding fathers”. This was in obvious
reference to the passage of the Shariat Bill in the
NWFP Assembly. The President said that the imposition
of a dress code, defacing and destroying of billboards
and attacks against circuses were actions that must
be thwarted and discouraged as the people of Pakistan
do not want a theocratic state. He also said that
the law enforcement agencies and the judiciary must
also act against these irritants to keep them from
getting out of hand.
Analysis
The Shariat Bill has resulted in widespread disappointment
and attracted a lot of criticism from various sections
of society. A large segment of the population feels
that the MMA is devoting its energy on non-issues
while the pressing needs of the province continue
to be overlooked. Issues of poverty, education and
health of the people and development works are not
being addressed at all - all of which the MMA had
promised to deliver once it was voted into power.
Now it seems the MMA does not care even for personal
liberty and freedom and judging from comments emanating
from MMA camps, matters are likely to remain so -
the recent destruction of billboards in Multan is
a case in point which took place despite assurances
to the contrary. While religious parties proclaim
not to force their policies on the people, they continue
to indulge in activities that create fear in the hearts
of the masses. In his address the President stressed
that nobody should go too far in opposition and work
against the interest of the country or its people
- advice that should be heeded.
(4) President’s Team Contacts MMA
The Presidential representatives re-established contacts
with the MMA on June 4 after a week-long gap in an
effort to defuse growing tension between the Centre
and the NWFP. Meetings between them focussed on evolution
of a consensus on contentious issues and their possible
settlement before the June 7 budget session of the
National Assembly and the Senate. The ruling PML-Q
chief, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain held a meeting with
the MMA leaders Maulana Fazlur Rahman and Liaquat
Baloch to discuss the issue of the president’s
uniform. Another meeting was between Intelligence
Bureau chief Col Bashir Wali (retired) and MMA’s
Liaquat Baloch. The third meeting was between Mr.
Baloch and the President’s top aide Tariq Aziz.
Later, Maulana Fazlur Rehman briefed Jamaat-e-Islami
deputy chief Senator Khurshid Ahmed and PML-N acting
president Makhdoom Javed Hashmi about his discussions
with Chaudhry Shujaat.
Analysis
The leaders decided that a meeting of the combined
opposition would be held on June 6 to finalize its
strategy on the protest campaign during the budget
session. During these meetings all the government
functionaries stressed that decision about relinquishing
the army post should be left to the president. MMA
leaders statement that the religious alliance would
not go back on their promise of electing Gen Musharraf
as the president after he had relinquished his army
chief’s office indicates a softening of stance.
However the MMA leadership continued to stress that
it would not change its stance on the Legal Framework
Order and would not succumb to what it called “allsorts
of pressure,” such as actions against the NWFP
government.
(5) Jamali warns NWFP government
On June 4, 2003 PM Jamali warned that the government
will take stern action against the provincial government
of the NWFP for violating the Local Government Ordinance-2001.
A meeting was held on June 5 between the NWFP government,
the Chairman of the National Reconstruction Bureau
(NRB), Daniyal Aziz and Governor NWFP on the issue
of Nazim’s resignations. Both the government
functionaries have instructions from the PM to take
severe stance during the meeting. All 24 district
Nazims who had filed their appeal with the President
Gen Pervez Musharraf regarding interference of the
provincial government in their affairs would also
attend the meeting.
Analysis
The government has categorically stated that it will
not allow anyone to derail the LG system that was
introduced by the President to provide solution to
people’s problems at the grassroots level. The
NWFP’s provincial government has taken over
the charge of postings and transfers of the government
officials and distribution of local government funds
in its hands which was the responsibility of the district
government. Similarly the provincial government had
taken back some departments which were handed over
to the district governments and also did not invite
representatives of the district governments in important
meetings and remained reluctant to share information.
This problem must be solved without any delay and
rule of law restored which the government seems determined
to carry out. The NRB Chief clearly stated that if
the provincial government does not change its attitude
then it would have to face the music. After the first
meeting on June 5 the NRB Chief said that the Center
would draft new Rules of Business (RoB) for district
governments in the North West Frontier Province to
resolve the confrontation. He also said all the 24
district Nazims had refused to take back their resignations
till the situation in the province normalised.
(6) Budget 2003-04 Presented in NA
The first budget (2003-04) of the military led elected
government was presented in the National Assembly
on June 7 amidst persistent clamour and uproar from
the opposition, which was expected all along. The
budget envisages a total expenditure of Rs.805.2 billion
which was proposed to be financed with receipts amounting
to Rs.626.2 billion; the gap of about Rs.179 billion
was to be filled by internal and external borrowing.
Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz described the budget
as investment inducing and employment generating in
which no new taxes had been proposed for the next
year and which also offered a number of innovative
measures including relief for government employees
and pensioners.
Opposition
political parties termed the budget a directionless
and stereotype document saying this it would benefit
the World Bank and the IMF as it lacked any incentive
for the poor and downtrodden people. Secretary-General
of the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal Maulana Fazlur Rahman
said: “The budget has been prepared in line
with the guidelines of the World Bank and the IMF
and would safeguard their interests.
Highlights of the budget: No new taxes; Total outlay
Rs.805 billion; 15% increase in salaries of government
employees; Allocations for heath sector up by 20 per
cent; 25% cut in excise duty on cement; Elimination
of excise duty on wire and cables; Increase in the
limit of tax exemption on mark-up; Increase in maximum
limit of loans; 30 per cent increase in development
budget; Increase in the amount of electricity subsidies;
Special savings scheme for widows; Medium taxpayers
units to be set up in different cities; Income tax
returns to be on self-assessment basis; Clearance
of goods at seaport and airport to take 48 hours;
Tax refund system to continue for promotion of exports;
Withholding tax rate cut from 7.5 per cent to 5 per
cent; Wealth Tax Act repealed; 10 per cent customs
duty replaced with 20 per cent sales tax on imported
oilseeds; Existing duty of 5 per cent on paper and
board abolished; Rate of duty on vehicles of 1800
cc and above reduced from 200 per cent to 150 per
cent; Rate of duty on tea, spices, silk yarn and ball
bearing reduced.
Analysis
Criticism of the budget, specially by the opposition,
was expected as we have an unfortunate history of
the opposition censuring every move of the government
in power, healthy and wholesome criticism has never
been their forte - in fact the opposition had started
raising doubts about the budget much before its presentation.
Every budget has its merits and demerits and it should
be judged not only on what it promises but also on
what it is able to deliver at the end of the day.
No doubt there are many areas in this budget which
will invite intense debate, there are many positives
also. One of the positive thrusts is that is envisages
encouragement of private sector investment by announcing
incentives in the areas of income tax, customs, excuse
duty and sales tax. Efforts have also been made to
remove problems and difficulties faced by the investor
and business community - reduction in customs duty
on over a hundred raw material items pertaining to
heavy engineering, light engineering, fans and ceramics
and reduction in customs duty on cables and wires
and cement are all good signs. Round the clock customs
clearance is another important provision. Wealth Tax
Act has been done away with. On paper there are a
whole set of incentives that should encourage private
sector investment. But the most important factor that
would determine inflow of such investment is political
stability in the country and the continuity of economic
policies.
(7) No Consensus on Leader of the Opposition
Despite more than eight months after the general elections
the opposition parties have not yet arrived at an
understanding to have a consensus Leader of the Opposition
in the National Assembly. The Pakistan People’s
Party Parliamentarians (PPP-P) and Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal
(MMA) are the two main contenders for this office
but they only see eye-to-eye on one issue only, the
LFO. On all other issues they are poles apart.
Analysis
The political parties that make up the combined opposition
have many differences amongst themselves due to which
they are not comfortable with the idea of accepting
someone from within their own ranks. The MMA and PPP-P
are the main contenders but they have almost conflicting
policies on all matters except for a consensus on
one point, the LFO - this is what binds them together,
a marriage of convenience. In view of this they may
prefer to appoint a Leader of the Opposition drawn
from other component parties in a bid to keep the
opposition parties united. It has also been reported
that names of Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf Chairman, Imran
Khan and the Acting President of PML(N) Javed Hashmi
are being considered. The distrust that seems to be
prevalent among the opposition parties prevents them
from completing a task that should have been finalised
months earlier.
(8) Recognition of Israel
Mr. Riaz Khokhar, the Foreign Secretary, while addressing
a press conference in Washington has said that Pakistan
will have to recognise Israel sooner or later viz
“although that possibility is far off,”
eventually “we will have to deal with it.”
He stressed that Pakistan’s relations with the
Palestinian people would always be at the top of agenda
for Pakistan.He also emphasized on the fact that many
Arab nations have now recognised Israel.
Analysis
The recognition of Israel is an extremely sensitive
subject as anti-Israeli passions run high in the country
because of Israel’s occupation of Palestine
and its continued policy of repression and brutality.
Thousands of Palestinians have since been killed and
millions have been forcibly expelled from their homes
in the holy land. Since Pakistan does not recognize
Israel there are no diplomatic relations between the
two countries - this has cost Pakistan dearly inviting
the wrath and enmity of the powerful Jewish community
in America, who exercise considerable influence over
the US media, politics and economy. Israel, on the
other hand, became India’s good friend giving
it military hardware, training and know-how.
One
would not hasten to predict whether the possibility
of recognizing Israeli would come to pass or not but
one must look at it in the context of the geo-political
realities that now envelope us. Policy decisions must
be made pragmatically and without being carried away
by emotions. Whatever the line of action to be ultimately
considered, the final decision will ultimately have
to be made by the people. The government must take
everyone into confidence; this is too volatile a subject
to be handled alone. All concerned must extensively
deliberate the related intricacies, advantages and
disadvantages and everyone’s views must be heard
and respected.
Meanwhile
the Bangladesh Foreign Minister Murshid Khan has said
that if recognition to Israel could help peaceful
settlement of the Middle East issue, Bangladesh could
recognize the Jewish state. Although a decision has
not been taken yet the matter was under discussion,
he said in an interview to an Indian news agency.
II. Law and Order
* Abdul Ghaffar who sustained bullet injury in the
clash between two religious groups on May 23 in New
Karachi over the possession of a mosque died in hospital.
On June 3 after the funeral prayer in New Karachi,
the funeral procession became violent and lit bonfires
on streets, pelted stones on vehicles and set a minibus
on fire. The Sunni Tehrik claimed that the deceased
was a member of their committee and that they wanted
to take Abdul Ghaffar’s body to the Chief Minister’s
House but the law enforcement agencies had stopped
them from doing so. The law enforcement agencies controlled
the situation before it got worse. However no one
was arrested.
*
On Friday June 6 the lingering dispute over the possession
of Rehmania Mosque in sector 11-G, New Karachi took
a turn for the worse when police had to lob teargas
shells and baton-charge agitating protesters and arrested
35 activists of Sunni Tehrik (ST) for damaging property,
arson and breach of peace. Activists of ST activists
started agitation against the town administration
and police after lapse of an ultimatum given by ST
leaders to seal off the disputed mosque within two
hours. They pelted stones on passing vehicles and
lit fires blocking the main road and disrupted traffic
movement. Shops were forced to pull down their shutters.
Law enforcement agencies also came under attack and
retaliated with teargas shelling and baton-charge;
it took them two hours to restore the situation.
*
Abdul Raziq Khan, former Speaker of the Sindh Assembly
and his driver were shot dead by unidentified motorcyclists
near the city courts on Wednesday, June 11 at 3.20
pm when Mr. Khan was on his way from the court. The
deceased was vice-president of the PML(Q)’s
Sindh chapter and was previously affiliated to the
Muttahida Qaumi Movement. The motorcyclists drove
up to his car and sprayed it with bullets as a result
of which Mr Khan received 10 bullet wounds and died
on the spot while the driver, Mehmood Alam who sustained
several bullet injuries succumbed in Civil Hospital.
*
On 23 June, in a midnight raid, 22 Russian missiles,
each weighing 15 Kilos were seized by paramilitary
troops in Khurram Agency from the house of an Afghan
refugee on a tip received by the political administration
of Khurram Agency that a big cache of heavy weapons
was dumped in a godown at Kharlachi village, which
is about one Kms from Afghanistan. It transpired that
a refugee, Mira Jan, who had since escaped to Afghanistan
a few days ago, owned the godown.
*
Pakistani security agencies arrested three al-Qaida
suspects in a pre-dawn raid on June 18 from Peshawar
city’s posh Hayatabad district. Information
Minister Sheikh Rashid, confirmed the arrests and
said one of the suspects was an Arab identified as
Adil al-Jazeeri, an Algerian who was being interrogated
by the security agencies. The other two detainees
were Afghans.
*
11 police trainees were killed on the spot and 9 others
injured when two armed men opened fire on their transportation
vehicle on Sariab Road in Quetta on evening of June
8 as they were going to the Police Training School.
According to an eyewitness the attackers had not even
bothered to mask their faces and one of them had a
beard. The assailants fled from the scene. The government
has announced monetary compensation for the family
of those who died and the injured as well.
On
the same day, in Lahore the Deputy Director of Lahore
Development Authority, Haji Hayat Gondal was shot
by two men who came on a motorcycle who opened fire
using revolvers and escaped. Haji Gondal was sitting
outside his house in Allama Iqbal Town at the time
and died in the hospital. The deceased’s brother
Mr Nawaz alleged that some property-dealers might
have a hand in the killing as his brother had refused
to accept bribes from them in return for favours.
The police have made no arrest.
Miscellaneous
* On June 21 the AJK government foiled the People’s
Party bid to lay siege of the legislative assembly
building by blocking entry of PP activists into Muzaffarabad
and arresting around 250 of them from different areas.
The police had been conducting raids since Friday,
June 20 to arrest PP activists. PPAJK president and
leader of the opposition in assembly Sultan Mahmood
Chaudhry said that more than 3,000 workers had been
detained. According to him the PP had wanted to peacefully
record its protest against Sardar Sikandar Hayat’s
support to the division of Kashmir. There were reports
of scuffles between both sides in the Assembly.
The
AJK Prime Minister regretted the “unruly behaviour
of opposition MLAs” saying that if anyone wanted
to change the government they should refrain from
slogan mongering and fighting but they should adopt
the procedure laid down in the constitution.
*
On June 21 workers of the MMA again started destroying
signboards in different parts of the Malakand region
and in some places they even carried away signboards.
The police have declined to register cases against
the MMA activists or arrest any one of them. Local
MMA leaders defended the action saying emotional youngsters
carried this out. Meanwhile in Gujranwala, according
to Maulana Qazi Hamidullah, the MMA has organized
a special force of 1,000 youths, including activists
of Shabab-i-Milli, to combat the obscenity and gambling.
He applauded the services of those who were arrested
by the police on charge of torching a circus and denied
that MMA activists had set the circus of fire; instead
he blamed government officials for the act. He also
assured that cases registered against MMA activists
would be soon dismissed and urged for a continuation
of the campaign.
*
As much as 35% of Karachi city’s total supply
of 475 million gallons daily (mgd) is wasted every
day owing to leakages in pipelines and bulk distribution
and transmission losses as well as pilferage. In other
words the 14 million residents of Karachi who require
600 mgd are now only being supplied 310 mgd, a colossal
waste of 290 mgd of precious water. To add to the
miseries of Karachiites a huge quantity of water is
reportedly stolen from a number of main pipelines
at Dhabeji, Gharo and other areas and is allegedly
used in the nearby agricultural farms.
Two
types of pipes have been laid in Karachi city - pre-stressed
RCC pipes which has flexible joints with a life of
25 years and A/C-asbestos/cement pipes which is good
for 50 years; most of the RCC types are on their way
to becoming obsolete being laid 25 years ago and have
undergone countless repairs over the years thus weakening
them further. Despite the huge amount of water being
wasted through pilferage or whenever a pipeline ruptures
no one is held accountable and those responsible for
this crime are never taken to task.
* Protesters in Lyari turned violent demanding restoration
of water supply to certain areas in the locality.
Angry mobs lit bonfires in the middle of the roads
and traffic remained thin all day long. Law enforcement
agencies resorted to teargas shelling and baton-charge
to disperse the protestors. Residents of Kalri and
other localities along Mauripur Road have been demanding
a fair distribution of water and measures to overcome
the scarcity of drinking water which has now persisted
in the area for months. Government representatives,
who arrived on the scene later, as usual blamed other
civic agencies for the problem. Lyari has been suffering
from a perennial shortage of clean drinking water
since many years.
* The Economic Survey which was released in a press
conference of Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz on Thursday
presents an extremely grim picture of the health status
of Pakistan. There is only one doctor for a population
of 1466, one dentist for 29,405 people, one nurse
for 3,347 and one hospital bed for 1,517 people. The
Survey showed the low level of life expectancy (63
years), high child mortality rate under five years
(110 per 1,000), high infant mortality rate (83.3
per 1000) and high population growth rate at 2.1 per
cent. Severe inadequacies have also been highlighted
such as unhygienic living conditions, lack of health
facilities, scarcity of potable water, paucity of
capital resources to meet the recurring expenditure,
malnutrition specially among children and women of
reproductive age, diseases like Malaria, Tuberculosis,
AIDS and drug abuse are the major areas of concern.
*
On Friday, June 27 the transmission and distribution
system of the Karachi Electric Supply Corporation
collapsed in many localities, resulting in prolonged
power breakdowns. In Shah Faisal Colony power, which
went off at 10 am was finally restored at 2.30 pm.
Similar stories were related by residents in Blocks
7, 14, 16 and 17 of FB Area; North Karachi suffered
similarly as did Gulshan 13-D1. There were multiple,
albeit brief, power shutdowns in Saddar.
Most of the people in all the above areas had one
common fact to relate, no one at the electricity complaint
telephone 118 bothered to respond to their calls.
One consumer said that the technicians who had come
to repair a fault had categorically stated, “the
fault would persist because we do not have the cable
to replace the old one.”
| Current
Threat Levels: |
| City/
Region |
Threat
Level |
| Islamabad |
Level
2 ** |
| Karachi |
Level
3 *** |
| Lahore |
Level
2 ** |
| Punjab |
Level
2 ** |
| NWFP |
Level
2 ** |
| Peshawar |
Level
2 ** |
| Quetta |
Level
3 *** |
| Upper
Balochistan |
Level
3 *** |
| Lower
Balochistan |
Level
2 ** |
| Upper
/ Rural Sindh |
Level
3 *** |
| Gilgit
and Northern areas |
Level
3 *** |
| Tribal
areas, close to Afghan border |
Level
3 *** |
Index
to Threat Level Perceptions
Threat
Level 1
Indicates there is no threat to foreigners although there may be
isolated incidents involving petty crime. No security
precautions are required.
Threat
Level 2
Indicates there is no specific threat to foreigners; however because
of the overall general law & order situation, some
security precautions are advised if traveling.
Threat
Level 3
Indicates that law and order situation is cause for concern and
travel should be avoided unless absolutely necessary. Level dictates that foreigners
should rehearse plans for evacuation.
Threat
Level 4
Indicates complete breakdown of civil administration and law &
order leading to anarchy. All foreigners advised to
remain indoors and confined to their own city.
Families and staff not required to be evacuated
retaining only a skeleton staff.
Threat
Level 5
Indicates complete breakdown of law and order, enemy action/hostilities,
invasion/occupation by enemy.
 |