This is happening at a time when American forces are deployed at Iran’s doorstep which should be a cause for worry, especially with the Bush administration’s declared aim of reshaping the region to suit the exigencies of US foreign policy on the Middle East. Signals emanating from Washington and Tehran in recent days threaten to move Iran up in the list of the countries with which the US wants to settle scores. With the American forces deployed in Afghanistan in the east, Iraq in the west and the Gulf in the south, Tehran is virtually surrounded by a very hostile America in a belligerent mood. Washington’s allegations that Iran supports terrorism, harbours Al Qaida operatives and is developing nuclear weapons, have limited the conservatives’ options in regard to controlling the on-going demonstrations. The situation has sparked fears about Iran’s internal stability. Any destabilization of the Islamic republic at this point, however, is likely to benefit the US and Israel more than the Iranians themselves, or the region as a whole. Thus it is extremely necessary for the country to gain stability. It can only be hoped that all the parties involved show sanity and differentiate between interests of “others” and of their country.

EU Backs Use Of Force Against States Having WMDs
EU foreign ministers adopted a strategy to combat the spread of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons for the first time, including a reference to possible military action as a last resort against states or “terrorists” that acquired such arms. In a significant shift towards US thinking, it stated that use of force might be necessary where diplomacy failed to address threats from weapons of mass destruction.

According to the strategy, preventive measures such as treaties, dialogue and inspections should be the first line of defence against the proliferation of the world’s most dangerous weapons. But “when these measures (including political dialogue and diplomatic pressure) have failed, coercive measures under Chapter VII of the UN charter and international law (sanctions, selective or global, interceptions of shipments and, as appropriate, the use of force) could be envisioned.

Ministers endorsed the strategy, coupled with an action plan giving the fight against WMD priority in EU relations with third countries, on the day they voiced serious concern at aspects of Iran’s nuclear programme. But Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou, who chaired the meeting, insisted the reference to possible use of force was not related to the separate statement on Iran.

Diplomats said the moves were part of an EU drive to take the WMD threat more seriously and repair transatlantic relations after a severe rift over the US-led invasion of Iraq. The EU document did, however, insist that action should be approved by the United Nations, whose Security Council it said “should play a central role”. Among key measures in the plan were boosting the budget of the International Atomic Energy Agency, tightening export controls and strengthening multilateral verification regimes.

Ex-US Official-Evidence Distorted for War
According to a report posted on the Internet the Bush administration distorted intelligence and presented conjecture as evidence to justify the US invasion of Iraq. According to Greg Thielmann who was director of the strategic, proliferation and military issues office in the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, his office was privy to classified intelligence gathered by the CIA and other agencies about Iraq’s chemical, biological and nuclear programmes. In Thielmann’s view, Iraq could have presented an immediate threat to US security in two areas: either it was about to make a nuclear weapon or it was forming close operational ties with al-Qaida terrorists. Evidence was lacking for both, despite claims by President Bush and others, Thielmann said in an interview. Suspicions were presented as fact, contrary arguments ignored, he said. The administration’s pre-war portrayal of Iraq’s weapons capabilities has not been validated despite weeks of searching by military experts. Alleged stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons have not turned up, nor has significant evidence of a nuclear weapons program or links to the al-Qaida network.

Bush has said administration assertions on Iraq will be verified in time. The CIA and other agencies have vigorously defended their pre-war performances.

Thielmann suggested mistakes may have been made at points all along the chain from when intelligence is gathered, analyzed, presented to the President and then provided to the public. The evidence of a renewed nuclear programme in Iraq was far more limited than the administration contended, he said. “When the administration did talk about specific evidence – it was basically declassified, sensitive information – it did it in a way that was also not entirely honest,” Thielmann said.

In his State of the Union address, Bush said, “The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.” The Africa claim rested on a purported letter or letters between officials in Iraq and Niger held by European intelligence agencies. The communications are now accepted as forged, and Thielmann said he believed the information on Africa was discounted months before Bush mentioned it. “I was very surprised to hear what he announced to the United States and the entire world,” he said. Some critics have suggested that the White House and Pentagon policy-makers pressured the CIA and military intelligence to come up with conclusions favourable to an attack-Iraq policy. The CIA and military have denied such charges. Thielmann said that generally he felt no such pressure. Although his office did not directly handle terrorism issues, Thielmann said he was similarly unconvinced of a strong link between al-Qaida and Saddam’s government. Yet, the implication from Bush downwards was that Saddam supported Osama bin Laden’s network. Iraq and the Sept. 11 attacks frequently were mentioned in the same sentence, even though officials have no good evidence of any link between the two.

The Twin Summits:
Roadmap to Nowhere?
The reciprocal promises made by the leaders of Israel and Palestine at the Jordanian port city of Aqaba on June 4, 2003 may sound good but do not provide any guarantee to the full and final settlement of their disputes that have plagued them over many decades. The pledges they made in the presence of the US President were at best seen as the rejection of the policy of violence that they have pursued.

Altogether the signs are not good at present. Sharon’s supporters and followers, mostly hardliners and orthodox Jews have displayed dejection over Sharon’s undertaking that unauthorized outposts would be vacated as per the roadmap. Another alarming aspect is the reported differences that have already emerged between him and Abbas over the number of outposts that are to be dismantled. The Sharon government had hesitated and faltered before finally announcing its acceptance of the roadmap expressing as many as 14 reservations. Despite Sharon’s undertaking, the settlement activities continue although the roadmap calls for a halt to such activity; it also proposes a dismantling of all Jewish settlements built after March 2001. It remains to be seen whether Israel will really do this.

Prime Minister Abbas also faces a daunting challenge on the home front. His assurance of reining in the militant groups was promptly rejected by Hamas and Islamic Jihad who refused to surrender arms until the total liberation of Palestine. Abbas is in a Catch-22 situation; he wants to stop the militant groups but does not have the means (security apparatus) to assert his will over these liberation groups. The ball is more or less in the Israeli court; if Israel is really interested in peace, perhaps it could match its words of peaceful coexistence with deeds without asking (or expecting) the Palestinian to act first, a way out could be found. But this may prove to be wishful thinking.

Meanwhile, President Bush’s comments at the Middle East Peace Summit in Egypt asking PM Mahmoud Abbas to “stop” the Palestinian resistance has outraged Hamas who has threatened to disavow PM Abbas as a representative of the Palestinians if he does not reject US President George W. Bush’s comments.

Sino-Russian Understanding
Russia and China are making a determined bid to come closer to each other. Chinese and Russian defence ministers agreed in Moscow to “widen” bilateral relations, including military ties. There has been a steady growth in the relations between these two countries who also share similar views on a number of major international issues such as their anti-war stand on Iraq, their opposition to American forces in Central Asia and their common views on the US-North Korean row over Pyongyang’s weapons programme. Both countries had also signed a friendship treaty in 2002 and are also members of the six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) which will be turned into a security organization by 2004. All these could be seen as a result of the widespread annoyance against the US for its unilateral war on Iraq.

UN to Press for Release of Aung San Suu Kyi
UN special envoy, Razali met Myanmar officials on June 5 to press for the release of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi who was detained last week after a deadly clash between her followers and government supporters. The ruling generals have held the Nobel peace laureate at an undisclosed location since the violence as she toured a provincial town. Meanwhile the United States said it suspected Suu Kyi and her convoy were ambushed and attacked by “government-affiliated thugs”. Myanmar military says four people died and 50 were injured in the clashes but dissidents in exile suspect perhaps as many as 75 of Suu Kyi’s supporters were killed. Diplomats and dissidents fear Suu Kyi was injured in the May 30 violence but Myanmar officials have denied that.

Razali also wanted to see senior leaders of Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) who have been confined to their houses by the military for the past week. But he told reporters the military had not yet given any signal they would allow him access to the NLD leadership.

Razali has visited Myanmar several times in the past two years to try to encourage talks on a democratic transition in the country that the military has ruled since a 1962 coup. He was instrumental in persuading the generals to free Suu Kyi from a spell of house arrest in May 2002 after a series of “confidence-building” talks between the junta and the NLD.

The United States and Britain have stepped up diplomatic pressure for Suu Kyi’s release and called on the junta to allow Razali to meet her.

The NLD swept to a landslide election victory in 1990, but has never been allowed to rule.

US Opposition to Chirac’s Vision of Multi-polarity
US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice attacked French President Jacques Chirac’s concept of a multi-polar world, dismissing it as a “theory of rivalry” that had never promoted peace. In an address to the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), she said: “Multipolarity was never a unifying idea or vision... it was a necessary evil that sustained the essence of war but did not promote peace, it is a theory of rivalry, of competing interests and, at its very worst, of competing values. We tried it before... it led to the Great War, to the Second World War and to the Cold War.”

She questioned the motives of those who “nostalgically” sought to defend this concept of international relations. Although she did not refer specifically to France, Rice’s remarks represented thinly veiled criticism of Paris’ stance. Throughout the Iraq crisis, France defended its vision of a multi-polar world of various power centres, including the United States and Europe, to justify its right to express different views from those of Washington. At the G8 summit of the world’s leading industrial nations in the French town of Evian in June, Chirac – determined to promote his vision of a multi-polar world – invited leaders from a dozen emerging and developing states to join in the talks.

EU – Divided and Reluctant
The US appeal to the European Union (EU) to cut off funding to the Palestinian militant group Hamas is unlikely to find an unequivocal echo within the European Union, which is divided on the issue. At this week’s summit meeting between the US and European leaders, aimed at improving relations, President George W. Bush said that the dismantling of groups such as Hamas would be the “true test” of the roadmap to peace in the Middle East. He urged the leaders in Europe and around the world to take swift, decisive action against terrorist groups such as Hamas, to cut off their funding and support.

The EU delegation headed by Commission President Romano Prodi and Greek Prime Minister Constantine Simitis, included Javier Solana, High Representative for the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy. The meeting in Washington was the first formal EU-US summit since the Iraq war, which bitterly divided Washington and its European allies as France and Germany, two of the EU’s most powerful members, refused to back the US-led invasion. Although an extradition deal between the EU and the US was signed at the summit, authorizing the sharing of information and broadening the scope of crimes to which extradition would apply, continuing differences were apparent as President Bush pressed the EU to crack down on Hamas. Between 1994 and 2001, the EU gave 1.446 billion euros in aid to the Palestinians. EU member states supported the Palestinian Authority with an additional one billion euros. The US has listed Hamas on the whole as a “foreign terrorist organization” for many years, but the EU continues to distinguish between its military activities and its political and social role in the Palestinian territories.

The fissures within the 15-nation EU have been surfacing even before the EU-US summit. Britain, for example, has already indicated that it supports Washington’s stance over Hamas, but faces strong opposition from France. At a meeting in Luxembourg on June 17, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw pressed his EU colleagues to outlaw the political wing if their attacks do not cease. However, French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin insisted that Hamas was a necessary player in the peace process.

Asked about differences within the European Union, a spokesperson for the EU, refused to indicate which member states were against the outlawing of Hamas and which were in favour. Michael Emmerson, expert in EU foreign policy and Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies, told IPS that the EU faces a “difficult decision”. But it might be just the right one. Emmerson said: “The EU is looking for ways to find areas of convergence with the US to mend relations after the war in Iraq and so the outlawing of Hamas could provide it with a good opportunity to improve these relations. It also wants to show the world that the EU is not just a soft power and that it is hardening up at the edges.”

The EU spokesperson said: “There is an active debate within Europe about the most useful way of applying pressure. All tactics will be considered and we will decide according to what is happening on the ground. Although there have been tense moments between the EU and US over the war in Iraq there is still a good relationship between the two. The test is not if you disagree but whether you can resolve problems.”

US Shifting Troops To Far-Flung Bases
According to a US Defence official, in the most extensive global realignment of US military forces since the end of the Cold War, the Bush administration is creating a network of far-flung military bases designed for the rapid projection of American military power against terrorists, hostile states and other potential adversaries. The withdrawal of US troops from the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea and the recent removal of most US forces from Saudi Arabia are the opening moves in a complex shift that should replace most large, permanent US bases overseas with smaller facilities that can be used as needed.

The bases are being built or expanded in countries such as Qatar, Bulgaria and Kyrgyzstan and the US territory of Guam. While existing US bases in Germany and South Korea, in place for more than 50 years, were designed to deter major communist adversaries, the new bases will become key nodes in the implementation of the administration’s doctrine of pre-emptive attack against terrorists and hostile states believed to have chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.
Their location is based on the premise that US forces must be able to strike rapidly against adversaries who may be armed with weapons of mass destruction before they can attack the United States or its allies. The basing strategy is also predicated on Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s oft-stated belief that the United States cannot predict who its adversaries are going to be.

The new network of bases corresponds to what Defence officials call an “arc of instability” that runs from the Andean region in the Southern Hemisphere through North Africa to the Middle East and into Southeast Asia. It is revealed that the new basing concept would require fundamental changes in the way US forces are structured and transported by air and sea. They would need to be deployed around the world in smaller units more much rapidly, often falling in on equipment already in place.

The United States would maintain a ring of permanent military “hubs” on US territory, such as Guam, and in closely allied countries, such as Britain and possibly Japan. But many of the major bases on which it had relied, such as those in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Germany and South Korea, will be replaced by dozens of spartan “forward operating bases” in southern Europe, the Middle East and Asia, maintained only by small, permanent support units. According to plan, beyond the hubs and forward operating bases would lie a ring of “forward operating locations,” or prearranged but unmaintained staging areas US forces would be allowed by host nations to occupy quickly in the event of a conflict. Officials said these forward facilities would be augmented by greater reliance on basing forces and equipment aboard ships at sea, and on pre-positioning forces and heavy combat equipment at staging areas along major shipping routes.

Defence officials cited a series of basing agreements developed in the Persian Gulf in anticipation of the Iraq war as a prototype for those they want in other parts of the world. Although US forces have vacated two large permanent air bases in Saudi Arabia and Turkey which were used to patrol the northern and southern “no-fly” zones over Iraq for more than a decade, they have established forward operating bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates. Military personnel are stationed in all of these countries, with 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, a major Air Force operations centre in Qatar and two huge Army bases in Kuwait. But there are no combat units permanently based in any of those countries, as there are in Germany, home to the Army’s 1st Armoured and 1st Infantry divisions. The continued basing of 60,000 Army troops in Germany, where they have been since the end of World War II, is under review. Defence officials want to continue using Ramstein Air Base in southern Germany and view it as a critical hub facility for supporting deployments to more distant forward operating bases and locations.

Another scenario under consideration, Defence officials said, calls for the troops in Germany to be brought home and based in the United States. They could then be rotated on six-month assignments in countries such as Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, which are closer to the Balkans and Central Asia and less restrictive than Germany as training sites.

Defence officials are also interested in operating locations along southern European shipping routes in Italy, Spain and Portugal. Farther east, in Central Asia, the US plans on maintaining bases in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which were established in 2001 to support the war in Afghanistan. In Asia, the relocation of 18,000 Army troops away from the Demilitarized Zone in South Korea to areas 75 miles south is designed to make them more mobile, freeing them to respond to other emergencies in the region. Ultimately, some of those troops might be brought to the United States and deployed to South Korea on six-month rotations.

Defence officials say there is no plan for moving all 20,000 Marines out of Okinawa. But they are looking at repositioning the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force from its current locations in Okinawa, Hawaii and Guam. The Pentagon is hoping to possibly re-establish bases or locations in the Philippines, although it is not clear how receptive the Philippines government will be. The Pentagon is also considering bases or staging areas in northeast Australia, where the US military has close ties and excellent training relationships with the Australian military. But one official said he doubted any forthcoming agreements would call for US Marines to be permanently based there.

Blair, Bush Lose Face over Iraq’s ‘mobile labs’
George Bush and Tony Blair face a fresh crisis over Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction, as evidence emerges that two vehicles that they have repeatedly claimed to be Iraqi mobile biological warfare production units are nothing of the sort. The intelligence agency MI6, British Defence officers and technical experts from the Porton Down microbiological research establishment have been ordered to conduct an urgent review of the mobile facilities, following US analysis which casts serious doubt on whether they really are germ labs.

The British review comes amid widespread doubts expressed by scientists on both sides of the Atlantic that the trucks could have been used to make biological weapons. Instead, it is increasingly likely that the units were designed to be used for hydrogen production to fill artillery balloons, part of a system originally sold to Saddam by Britain in 1987.

The British review follows access by UK officials to the vehicles which were discovered by US troops in April and May. The claim, however, that the two vehicles are mobile germ labs has been repeated frequently by both Blair and George Bush in recent days in support of claims that they prove the existence of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction.

During his tour of the Gulf, Europe and Russia, Blair repeatedly briefed journalists that the trailers were germ production labs which proved that Iraq had WMD. But chemical weapons experts, engineers, chemists and military systems experts contacted by The Observer over the past week say the layout and equipment found on the trailers is entirely inconsistent with the vehicles being mobile labs. Both US Secretary of State Colin Powell, when he addressed the UN Security Council prior to the war, and the British Government alleged that Saddam had such labs.

The Speaker’s ruling has greatly incensed the combined opposition who demanded the Speaker’s resignation failing which they announced to move a no-confidence motion against him for his “partial” ruling validating Legal Framework Order (LFO) as part of 1973 Constitution. The joint opposition charged that the Speaker was brought under pressure by the government to give such a ruling.

Analysis
It is difficult to comprehend either the reason or compulsion of the National Assembly speaker in handing out a categorical ruling on the controversial question of the status of the Legal Framework Order. This move has caught the opposition (and many others) by surprise coming as it did out of nowhere. The announcement comes at a time when the government and the opposition are still engaged in negotiations over the contentious amendment package and even though a settlement has not been reached, the talks have not at least been formally called off.

The combined opposition may now find itself in a somewhat sticky situation since they had stated that they were taking oath under the Constitution as it stood on October 12, 1999 before Gen Musharraf’s takeover. If they now participate in further proceedings it may tantamount to implicitly acknowledging the LFO. Anyway as far as the Speaker’s ruling is concerned, it does not legalize the LFO, is only means that the Speaker will use the LFO-amended Constitution for the business of the House. The legality (or otherwise) of the LFO rests with the SC which had reserved to itself the right to review whether the CE’s amendments violated the basic structure of the Constitution.

The Speaker also made it a point to further state that the major political parties had contested the general elections under the conduct of General Elections Order 2002 and none of them had filed a petition before the SC to assail any provision of the LFO. Thus many provisions of the LFO have been implemented and acted upon.

To add more drama to the event, some opposition parties are now seriously thinking of challenging the Speaker’s ruling in a court of law and a decision may be expected during the next few days as currently the lawyers are examining all aspects of the matter before.

(2) No-trust Motion against NA Speaker
The combined opposition in the National Assembly submitted a no-confidence motion against Speaker Chaudhry Amir Hussain to the assembly secretary on Friday, June 20. The motion has been filed under Rule 12 of the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business of the National Assembly because the Speaker had “transgressed his authority by giving a ruling on the Constitution and thereby undermining the sovereignty of the house which was beyond his purview regarding the LFO’s status vis-à-vis the Constitution”. MMA believes that the opposition has no option but to file the no-trust move against the speaker which was its constitutional right because the speaker had no powers to give a ruling on constitutional matters. However, the speaker survived the move.

Analysis
As per the rules it is expected that the next session may be held on or after June 28 when votes would be cast by secret balloting . In the meantime the ruling party is making all arrangements to defend the Speaker and it has challenged the opposition to muster support of 172 MNAs. PML(Q) MNAs who are currently outside of the country have been asked to rush back before June 28 when the NA session will be convened to debate the issue of no-confidence. PML(Q) members feel that the MMA by these actions is trying to portray Pakistan to the outside world as a country on the verge of destabilization and to embarrass Gen Musharraf who is currently on a four-nation tour, including the US.

As things stand, it may be expected that the no-trust motion will be defeated.

(3) People against Talibanization of Society - President
President Musharraf while speaking at a reception of the Lahore Bar Association on June 8, where he received a standing ovation, spoke strongly against attempts at Talibanization of society adding that the people wanted a progressive, enlightened and dynamic Islamic state of Pakistan in line with the “vision of the founding fathers”. This was in obvious reference to the passage of the Shariat Bill in the NWFP Assembly. The President said that the imposition of a dress code, defacing and destroying of billboards and attacks against circuses were actions that must be thwarted and discouraged as the people of Pakistan do not want a theocratic state. He also said that the law enforcement agencies and the judiciary must also act against these irritants to keep them from getting out of hand.

Analysis
The Shariat Bill has resulted in widespread disappointment and attracted a lot of criticism from various sections of society. A large segment of the population feels that the MMA is devoting its energy on non-issues while the pressing needs of the province continue to be overlooked. Issues of poverty, education and health of the people and development works are not being addressed at all - all of which the MMA had promised to deliver once it was voted into power. Now it seems the MMA does not care even for personal liberty and freedom and judging from comments emanating from MMA camps, matters are likely to remain so - the recent destruction of billboards in Multan is a case in point which took place despite assurances to the contrary. While religious parties proclaim not to force their policies on the people, they continue to indulge in activities that create fear in the hearts of the masses. In his address the President stressed that nobody should go too far in opposition and work against the interest of the country or its people - advice that should be heeded.

(4) President’s Team Contacts MMA
The Presidential representatives re-established contacts with the MMA on June 4 after a week-long gap in an effort to defuse growing tension between the Centre and the NWFP. Meetings between them focussed on evolution of a consensus on contentious issues and their possible settlement before the June 7 budget session of the National Assembly and the Senate. The ruling PML-Q chief, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain held a meeting with the MMA leaders Maulana Fazlur Rahman and Liaquat Baloch to discuss the issue of the president’s uniform. Another meeting was between Intelligence Bureau chief Col Bashir Wali (retired) and MMA’s Liaquat Baloch. The third meeting was between Mr. Baloch and the President’s top aide Tariq Aziz. Later, Maulana Fazlur Rehman briefed Jamaat-e-Islami deputy chief Senator Khurshid Ahmed and PML-N acting president Makhdoom Javed Hashmi about his discussions with Chaudhry Shujaat.

Analysis
The leaders decided that a meeting of the combined opposition would be held on June 6 to finalize its strategy on the protest campaign during the budget session. During these meetings all the government functionaries stressed that decision about relinquishing the army post should be left to the president. MMA leaders statement that the religious alliance would not go back on their promise of electing Gen Musharraf as the president after he had relinquished his army chief’s office indicates a softening of stance. However the MMA leadership continued to stress that it would not change its stance on the Legal Framework Order and would not succumb to what it called “allsorts of pressure,” such as actions against the NWFP government.

(5) Jamali warns NWFP government
On June 4, 2003 PM Jamali warned that the government will take stern action against the provincial government of the NWFP for violating the Local Government Ordinance-2001. A meeting was held on June 5 between the NWFP government, the Chairman of the National Reconstruction Bureau (NRB), Daniyal Aziz and Governor NWFP on the issue of Nazim’s resignations. Both the government functionaries have instructions from the PM to take severe stance during the meeting. All 24 district Nazims who had filed their appeal with the President Gen Pervez Musharraf regarding interference of the provincial government in their affairs would also attend the meeting.

Analysis
The government has categorically stated that it will not allow anyone to derail the LG system that was introduced by the President to provide solution to people’s problems at the grassroots level. The NWFP’s provincial government has taken over the charge of postings and transfers of the government officials and distribution of local government funds in its hands which was the responsibility of the district government. Similarly the provincial government had taken back some departments which were handed over to the district governments and also did not invite representatives of the district governments in important meetings and remained reluctant to share information. This problem must be solved without any delay and rule of law restored which the government seems determined to carry out. The NRB Chief clearly stated that if the provincial government does not change its attitude then it would have to face the music. After the first meeting on June 5 the NRB Chief said that the Center would draft new Rules of Business (RoB) for district governments in the North West Frontier Province to resolve the confrontation. He also said all the 24 district Nazims had refused to take back their resignations till the situation in the province normalised.

(6) Budget 2003-04 Presented in NA
The first budget (2003-04) of the military led elected government was presented in the National Assembly on June 7 amidst persistent clamour and uproar from the opposition, which was expected all along. The budget envisages a total expenditure of Rs.805.2 billion which was proposed to be financed with receipts amounting to Rs.626.2 billion; the gap of about Rs.179 billion was to be filled by internal and external borrowing. Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz described the budget as investment inducing and employment generating in which no new taxes had been proposed for the next year and which also offered a number of innovative measures including relief for government employees and pensioners.

Opposition political parties termed the budget a directionless and stereotype document saying this it would benefit the World Bank and the IMF as it lacked any incentive for the poor and downtrodden people. Secretary-General of the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal Maulana Fazlur Rahman said: “The budget has been prepared in line with the guidelines of the World Bank and the IMF and would safeguard their interests.
Highlights of the budget: No new taxes; Total outlay Rs.805 billion; 15% increase in salaries of government employees; Allocations for heath sector up by 20 per cent; 25% cut in excise duty on cement; Elimination of excise duty on wire and cables; Increase in the limit of tax exemption on mark-up; Increase in maximum limit of loans; 30 per cent increase in development budget; Increase in the amount of electricity subsidies; Special savings scheme for widows; Medium taxpayers units to be set up in different cities; Income tax returns to be on self-assessment basis; Clearance of goods at seaport and airport to take 48 hours; Tax refund system to continue for promotion of exports; Withholding tax rate cut from 7.5 per cent to 5 per cent; Wealth Tax Act repealed; 10 per cent customs duty replaced with 20 per cent sales tax on imported oilseeds; Existing duty of 5 per cent on paper and board abolished; Rate of duty on vehicles of 1800 cc and above reduced from 200 per cent to 150 per cent; Rate of duty on tea, spices, silk yarn and ball bearing reduced.

Analysis
Criticism of the budget, specially by the opposition, was expected as we have an unfortunate history of the opposition censuring every move of the government in power, healthy and wholesome criticism has never been their forte - in fact the opposition had started raising doubts about the budget much before its presentation. Every budget has its merits and demerits and it should be judged not only on what it promises but also on what it is able to deliver at the end of the day. No doubt there are many areas in this budget which will invite intense debate, there are many positives also. One of the positive thrusts is that is envisages encouragement of private sector investment by announcing incentives in the areas of income tax, customs, excuse duty and sales tax. Efforts have also been made to remove problems and difficulties faced by the investor and business community - reduction in customs duty on over a hundred raw material items pertaining to heavy engineering, light engineering, fans and ceramics and reduction in customs duty on cables and wires and cement are all good signs. Round the clock customs clearance is another important provision. Wealth Tax Act has been done away with. On paper there are a whole set of incentives that should encourage private sector investment. But the most important factor that would determine inflow of such investment is political stability in the country and the continuity of economic policies.

(7) No Consensus on Leader of the Opposition
Despite more than eight months after the general elections the opposition parties have not yet arrived at an understanding to have a consensus Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly. The Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPP-P) and Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) are the two main contenders for this office but they only see eye-to-eye on one issue only, the LFO. On all other issues they are poles apart.

Analysis
The political parties that make up the combined opposition have many differences amongst themselves due to which they are not comfortable with the idea of accepting someone from within their own ranks. The MMA and PPP-P are the main contenders but they have almost conflicting policies on all matters except for a consensus on one point, the LFO - this is what binds them together, a marriage of convenience. In view of this they may prefer to appoint a Leader of the Opposition drawn from other component parties in a bid to keep the opposition parties united. It has also been reported that names of Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf Chairman, Imran Khan and the Acting President of PML(N) Javed Hashmi are being considered. The distrust that seems to be prevalent among the opposition parties prevents them from completing a task that should have been finalised months earlier.

(8) Recognition of Israel
Mr. Riaz Khokhar, the Foreign Secretary, while addressing a press conference in Washington has said that Pakistan will have to recognise Israel sooner or later viz “although that possibility is far off,” eventually “we will have to deal with it.” He stressed that Pakistan’s relations with the Palestinian people would always be at the top of agenda for Pakistan.He also emphasized on the fact that many Arab nations have now recognised Israel.

Analysis
The recognition of Israel is an extremely sensitive subject as anti-Israeli passions run high in the country because of Israel’s occupation of Palestine and its continued policy of repression and brutality. Thousands of Palestinians have since been killed and millions have been forcibly expelled from their homes in the holy land. Since Pakistan does not recognize Israel there are no diplomatic relations between the two countries - this has cost Pakistan dearly inviting the wrath and enmity of the powerful Jewish community in America, who exercise considerable influence over the US media, politics and economy. Israel, on the other hand, became India’s good friend giving it military hardware, training and know-how.

One would not hasten to predict whether the possibility of recognizing Israeli would come to pass or not but one must look at it in the context of the geo-political realities that now envelope us. Policy decisions must be made pragmatically and without being carried away by emotions. Whatever the line of action to be ultimately considered, the final decision will ultimately have to be made by the people. The government must take everyone into confidence; this is too volatile a subject to be handled alone. All concerned must extensively deliberate the related intricacies, advantages and disadvantages and everyone’s views must be heard and respected.

Meanwhile the Bangladesh Foreign Minister Murshid Khan has said that if recognition to Israel could help peaceful settlement of the Middle East issue, Bangladesh could recognize the Jewish state. Although a decision has not been taken yet the matter was under discussion, he said in an interview to an Indian news agency.

II. Law and Order
* Abdul Ghaffar who sustained bullet injury in the clash between two religious groups on May 23 in New Karachi over the possession of a mosque died in hospital. On June 3 after the funeral prayer in New Karachi, the funeral procession became violent and lit bonfires on streets, pelted stones on vehicles and set a minibus on fire. The Sunni Tehrik claimed that the deceased was a member of their committee and that they wanted to take Abdul Ghaffar’s body to the Chief Minister’s House but the law enforcement agencies had stopped them from doing so. The law enforcement agencies controlled the situation before it got worse. However no one was arrested.

* On Friday June 6 the lingering dispute over the possession of Rehmania Mosque in sector 11-G, New Karachi took a turn for the worse when police had to lob teargas shells and baton-charge agitating protesters and arrested 35 activists of Sunni Tehrik (ST) for damaging property, arson and breach of peace. Activists of ST activists started agitation against the town administration and police after lapse of an ultimatum given by ST leaders to seal off the disputed mosque within two hours. They pelted stones on passing vehicles and lit fires blocking the main road and disrupted traffic movement. Shops were forced to pull down their shutters. Law enforcement agencies also came under attack and retaliated with teargas shelling and baton-charge; it took them two hours to restore the situation.

* Abdul Raziq Khan, former Speaker of the Sindh Assembly and his driver were shot dead by unidentified motorcyclists near the city courts on Wednesday, June 11 at 3.20 pm when Mr. Khan was on his way from the court. The deceased was vice-president of the PML(Q)’s Sindh chapter and was previously affiliated to the Muttahida Qaumi Movement. The motorcyclists drove up to his car and sprayed it with bullets as a result of which Mr Khan received 10 bullet wounds and died on the spot while the driver, Mehmood Alam who sustained several bullet injuries succumbed in Civil Hospital.

* On 23 June, in a midnight raid, 22 Russian missiles, each weighing 15 Kilos were seized by paramilitary troops in Khurram Agency from the house of an Afghan refugee on a tip received by the political administration of Khurram Agency that a big cache of heavy weapons was dumped in a godown at Kharlachi village, which is about one Kms from Afghanistan. It transpired that a refugee, Mira Jan, who had since escaped to Afghanistan a few days ago, owned the godown.

* Pakistani security agencies arrested three al-Qaida suspects in a pre-dawn raid on June 18 from Peshawar city’s posh Hayatabad district. Information Minister Sheikh Rashid, confirmed the arrests and said one of the suspects was an Arab identified as Adil al-Jazeeri, an Algerian who was being interrogated by the security agencies. The other two detainees were Afghans.

* 11 police trainees were killed on the spot and 9 others injured when two armed men opened fire on their transportation vehicle on Sariab Road in Quetta on evening of June 8 as they were going to the Police Training School. According to an eyewitness the attackers had not even bothered to mask their faces and one of them had a beard. The assailants fled from the scene. The government has announced monetary compensation for the family of those who died and the injured as well.

On the same day, in Lahore the Deputy Director of Lahore Development Authority, Haji Hayat Gondal was shot by two men who came on a motorcycle who opened fire using revolvers and escaped. Haji Gondal was sitting outside his house in Allama Iqbal Town at the time and died in the hospital. The deceased’s brother Mr Nawaz alleged that some property-dealers might have a hand in the killing as his brother had refused to accept bribes from them in return for favours. The police have made no arrest.

Miscellaneous
* On June 21 the AJK government foiled the People’s Party bid to lay siege of the legislative assembly building by blocking entry of PP activists into Muzaffarabad and arresting around 250 of them from different areas. The police had been conducting raids since Friday, June 20 to arrest PP activists. PPAJK president and leader of the opposition in assembly Sultan Mahmood Chaudhry said that more than 3,000 workers had been detained. According to him the PP had wanted to peacefully record its protest against Sardar Sikandar Hayat’s support to the division of Kashmir. There were reports of scuffles between both sides in the Assembly.

The AJK Prime Minister regretted the “unruly behaviour of opposition MLAs” saying that if anyone wanted to change the government they should refrain from slogan mongering and fighting but they should adopt the procedure laid down in the constitution.

* On June 21 workers of the MMA again started destroying signboards in different parts of the Malakand region and in some places they even carried away signboards. The police have declined to register cases against the MMA activists or arrest any one of them. Local MMA leaders defended the action saying emotional youngsters carried this out. Meanwhile in Gujranwala, according to Maulana Qazi Hamidullah, the MMA has organized a special force of 1,000 youths, including activists of Shabab-i-Milli, to combat the obscenity and gambling. He applauded the services of those who were arrested by the police on charge of torching a circus and denied that MMA activists had set the circus of fire; instead he blamed government officials for the act. He also assured that cases registered against MMA activists would be soon dismissed and urged for a continuation of the campaign.

* As much as 35% of Karachi city’s total supply of 475 million gallons daily (mgd) is wasted every day owing to leakages in pipelines and bulk distribution and transmission losses as well as pilferage. In other words the 14 million residents of Karachi who require 600 mgd are now only being supplied 310 mgd, a colossal waste of 290 mgd of precious water. To add to the miseries of Karachiites a huge quantity of water is reportedly stolen from a number of main pipelines at Dhabeji, Gharo and other areas and is allegedly used in the nearby agricultural farms.

Two types of pipes have been laid in Karachi city - pre-stressed RCC pipes which has flexible joints with a life of 25 years and A/C-asbestos/cement pipes which is good for 50 years; most of the RCC types are on their way to becoming obsolete being laid 25 years ago and have undergone countless repairs over the years thus weakening them further. Despite the huge amount of water being wasted through pilferage or whenever a pipeline ruptures no one is held accountable and those responsible for this crime are never taken to task.

* Protesters in Lyari turned violent demanding restoration of water supply to certain areas in the locality. Angry mobs lit bonfires in the middle of the roads and traffic remained thin all day long. Law enforcement agencies resorted to teargas shelling and baton-charge to disperse the protestors. Residents of Kalri and other localities along Mauripur Road have been demanding a fair distribution of water and measures to overcome the scarcity of drinking water which has now persisted in the area for months. Government representatives, who arrived on the scene later, as usual blamed other civic agencies for the problem. Lyari has been suffering from a perennial shortage of clean drinking water since many years.

* The Economic Survey which was released in a press conference of Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz on Thursday presents an extremely grim picture of the health status of Pakistan. There is only one doctor for a population of 1466, one dentist for 29,405 people, one nurse for 3,347 and one hospital bed for 1,517 people. The Survey showed the low level of life expectancy (63 years), high child mortality rate under five years (110 per 1,000), high infant mortality rate (83.3 per 1000) and high population growth rate at 2.1 per cent. Severe inadequacies have also been highlighted such as unhygienic living conditions, lack of health facilities, scarcity of potable water, paucity of capital resources to meet the recurring expenditure, malnutrition specially among children and women of reproductive age, diseases like Malaria, Tuberculosis, AIDS and drug abuse are the major areas of concern.