Security Analysis on the International, Regional and Domestic Fronts
[Combined effort of PATHFINDER GROUP Task Force]
Executive Summary of the Month

With President Pervez Musharraf in the US and Europe, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee in China and President Vladimir Putin in UK, the political atmosphere of the world was very warm throughout the month. Many strategic changes are gradually taking place, fallout of which will be felt in the years to come. New partnerships are being sought and old ones are being strengthened.

Russia and China seem to be moving closer to each other. The Defence Ministers of both countries agreed to “widen” bilateral relations, including military ties. Mr. Putin’s statement that he believed in a new “multipolar” world which will “respect the interests of all” clearly depicts the world view about US after its attack on Iraq against the wishes of almost all major powers.

Many interesting revelations took place like the US policy of shifting troops round the globe and its plan to support India’s emerging role in Asia. Both the policies are dealt in greater length in the subsequent part. Political instability is now looming large over Iran which is being brought into the net by the US. With the already vulnerable security environment in the Middle East this could prove to be unstable.

The Russian Foreign Minister, Igor Ivanov’s extended trip across Asia – including India, Pakistan and Cambodia, part of Moscow’s “Look East” policy to counter what they see as Washington’s push for global dominance, is a case in point. It has recently announced plans to boost its military presence in the Central Asian Republics by establishing permanent defence bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in order to offset around a dozen overt and covert staging points that the US Government had access to in the region – including Georgia, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

The European Union, in a significant shift towards US thinking adopted a strategy that allows use of force where diplomacy fails to address threats from Weapons of Mass Destruction.

On regional fronts the conflicts witnessed more violence in Middle East and Kashmir where hundreds of people died both as a result of suicide attacks and state and military retaliation. While on the one hand the “roadmap” to peace in the Middle East seems destined to failure, India and Pakistan peace negotiations have stalled due to their staunch positions.

The US decision to pull its troops back from the Demilitarized Zone in the Korean Peninsula has left the two Koreas in security dilemmas. The South must now bear more of its defence spending while the North sees the move as yet another sign of impending US attacks.

Internally too, the month was full of political rifts, though the federal budget figured as the basic course of discussion around the country. Political debate mostly moved around the rifts in Sindh Assembly over the construction of Thar Canal, that was rejected. No headway could be achieved between the Government and Opposition parties over the issues of LFO and General Musharraf’s uniform. Though Premier Jamali showed his willingness to hold meetings with the opposition, his move was met with suspicion. Law and order situation remained unabated and political atmosphere was tense.

International
War Crime Suits Filed against Bush, Blair and Others

According to information released by the Belgian Government, war crime lawsuits have been filed in Belgium against eight top officials, including US President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair. However, the Belgian government has refused to handle the cases arising from the conflict in Iraq, referring them to the US and British governments. Nevertheless the lawsuits, brought under Belgium’s ‘universal competence law’, are likely to deepen tensions between Washington and Brussels, which firmly opposed the war in Iraq. Last week US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld – who is one of the eight officials named in the lawsuits – said Belgium would face consequences unless it revised the “absurd” law. He warned that US officials would shun the country, and announced that US funding for a new NATO headquarters in Brussels, which is also home to the European Union, would be suspended.

British Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon, who said the Belgian law was a matter of “great concern”, backed Mr Rumsfeld. The 1993 law allows courts that were established in Belgium to judge suspects accused of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide, regardless of where the alleged acts were committed, the nationality of the accused or that of the victims.

The justice ministry said it had received three lawsuits arising from the Iraq conflict seeking action against Mr. Bush, Mr. Blair and the six others viz. US Secretary of State Colin Powell, Mr. Rumsfeld, Rumsfeld’s deputy Paul Wolfowitz, Attorney-General John Ashcroft, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and General Tommy Franks, who led US forces in Iraq.

Mr Bush, Mr Rumsfeld, Mr Ashcroft, Ms Rice and Mr Wolfowitz were additionally accused over the US-led campaign in Afghanistan that toppled the Taliban regime in line with a decision taken by the Belgian cabinet last month when a similar case was filed against US military officials, including Gen Franks.

The Belgian government is seeking to deflect the storm of international criticism of the law, under which suits have also been brought against Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. A newspaper said Belgium may try to circumvent the growing row over the war crimes law by extending diplomatic immunity to all official visitors to international bodies on its territory.

Africa’s New Oil Rush: Corruption and Chaos
Washington’s determination to find an alternative energy source to the Middle East is leading to a new oil rush in sub-Saharan Africa which threatens to launch a fresh cycle of conflict, corruption and environmental degradation in the region. According to a report, Bottom of the Barrel by Ian Gary from the US aid agency Catholic Relief Services (CRS), the new scramble for Africa risks bringing more misery to the continent’s impoverished citizens as western oil companies pour billions of dollars in secret payments into government coffers throughout the continent. Much of the money ends up in the hands of ruling elite or is squandered on grandiose projects and the military.

Taking notice of this scramble, Tony Blair has urged the oil industry to be more transparent in its dealings with Africa. Openness and accountability are essentials for stability and prosperity in the developing world.
It is noteworthy here that African countries own eight per cent of world oil reserves. An estimated 200 billion dollars in revenues will flow into African government treasuries over the next 10 years as new oilfields open up throughout the Gulf of Guinea. Oil will bring the largest influx of revenue in the continent’s history, and more than 10 times the amount western donors give each year in aid.

However, Ian Gary warned that: “Petro-dollars have not helped developing countries to reduce poverty; in many cases they have actually exacerbated it. In Nigeria, for example, which has received over $300 billion in oil revenues over the last 25 years, per capita income is less than $1 a day.” Despite the prime minister’s backing for the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), aid agencies and MEPs (Members of the European Parliament) say Britain has let oil companies off the hook by watering down plans to make publication of payments to Third World governments mandatory.
Many political and business elites have major vested interests in avoiding transparency.

British oil firms, including Shell and BP, have privately backed calls for publication of payments to be compulsory because they believe otherwise honest companies will be undercut by less scrupulous competitors.

BP was nearly kicked out of Angola for disclosing that it had paid a 111 million dollars signature bonus to the government in 2001. But with the US administration under pressure from American oil companies to resist new regulations, Britain has abandoned the mandatory approach in favour of a statement of principles which industry and government representative can agree on.

The discovery of high-quality offshore fields has attracted interest at the highest levels of the Bush administration, which is determined to lessen America’s dependence on imports from the Middle East. A taskforce headed by the US vice-president, Dick Cheney, predicted two years ago that West Africa would become the fastest growing source of oil and gas for the American market. The US geo-strategic view is that all crude oil is good, and all non-OPEC oil is especially good. The goal is to take the Saudi hand off the spare oil capacity spigot.

Next month President Bush is planning to visit Senegal, Nigeria and South Africa while the Pentagon is reportedly considering redeploying American troops to protect key oil reserves in Africa, particularly Nigeria. Washington is preparing to reopen its embassy in Equatorial Guinea, where oil revenues have boosted GDP by 60 per cent over the last two years, despite State Department reservations over the country’s appalling human rights record. The US has identified increasing African oil imports as an issue of “national security” and has used diplomacy to court African producers regardless of their record on transparency, democracy or human rights.
The CRS report says Gabon, Angola and Nigeria, which discovered oil several decades ago, have fared worse than many African countries. In Nigeria, an overvalued exchange rate has devastated the non-oil sectors of the economy while local uprisings over control of oil revenues have sparked large-scale military repression in the Niger delta. In Gabon, oil has been at the centre of a string of scandals tainting the Mitterrand government, which turned a blind eye as the French-owned oil company, Elf Aquitaine, used the country’s banks to launder money while paying huge bribes to the government.

The World Bank and the IMF have been too slow to recognize that corrupt governments are squandering oil revenues. Despite recent statements of support for transparency, the bank has yet to make its loans conditional on full disclosure. Keeping in view the level of corruption in Africa and political aims of the US and European companies involved it is extremely difficult to be optimistic that the oil wealth would yield any positive gains for the region.  

Unrest In Iran
Student demonstrations in Tehran spread to two other Iranian cities. The growing anger expressed by the student community over the proposed privatization of Iranian universities has also come to involve other segments of society and people representing diverse interests have joined the protest rallies. Many young people feel frustrated at the Khatami government’s failure to implement reforms and are now asking it to step down. Anti-clerical sentiment has never before been expressed this boldly, and seems to echo the messages being broadcast by the US-based pro-monarchy channels beaming into Iran. Moreover, the US government has declared that it would continue to “express support” for the Iranian students protesting against the government in Tehran. In another development, a US senator, Sam Brownback has introduced legislation for setting up a fund that would help these students.

This is happening at a time when American forces are deployed at Iran’s doorstep which should be a cause for worry, especially with the Bush administration’s declared aim of reshaping the region to suit the exigencies of US foreign policy on the Middle East. Signals emanating from Washington and Tehran in recent days threaten to move Iran up in the list of the countries with which the US wants to settle scores. With the American forces deployed in Afghanistan in the east, Iraq in the west and the Gulf in the south, Tehran is virtually surrounded by a very hostile America in a belligerent mood. Washington’s allegations that Iran supports terrorism, harbours Al Qaida operatives and is developing nuclear weapons, have limited the conservatives’ options in regard to controlling the on-going demonstrations. The situation has sparked fears about Iran’s internal stability. Any destabilization of the Islamic republic at this point, however, is likely to benefit the US and Israel more than the Iranians themselves, or the region as a whole. Thus it is extremely necessary for the country to gain stability. It can only be hoped that all the parties involved show sanity and differentiate between interests of “others” and of their country.

EU Backs Use Of Force Against States Having WMDs
EU foreign ministers adopted a strategy to combat the spread of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons for the first time, including a reference to possible military action as a last resort against states or “terrorists” that acquired such arms. In a significant shift towards US thinking, it stated that use of force might be necessary where diplomacy failed to address threats from weapons of mass destruction.

According to the strategy, preventive measures such as treaties, dialogue and inspections should be the first line of defence against the proliferation of the world’s most dangerous weapons. But “when these measures (including political dialogue and diplomatic pressure) have failed, coercive measures under Chapter VII of the UN charter and international law (sanctions, selective or global, interceptions of shipments and, as appropriate, the use of force) could be envisioned.

Ministers endorsed the strategy, coupled with an action plan giving the fight against WMD priority in EU relations with third countries, on the day they voiced serious concern at aspects of Iran’s nuclear programme. But Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou, who chaired the meeting, insisted the reference to possible use of force was not related to the separate statement on Iran.

Diplomats said the moves were part of an EU drive to take the WMD threat more seriously and repair transatlantic relations after a severe rift over the US-led invasion of Iraq. The EU document did, however, insist that action should be approved by the United Nations, whose Security Council it said “should play a central role”. Among key measures in the plan were boosting the budget of the International Atomic Energy Agency, tightening export controls and strengthening multilateral verification regimes.

Ex-US Official-Evidence Distorted for War
According to a report posted on the Internet the Bush administration distorted intelligence and presented conjecture as evidence to justify the US invasion of Iraq. According to Greg Thielmann who was director of the strategic, proliferation and military issues office in the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, his office was privy to classified intelligence gathered by the CIA and other agencies about Iraq’s chemical, biological and nuclear programmes. In Thielmann’s view, Iraq could have presented an immediate threat to US security in two areas: either it was about to make a nuclear weapon or it was forming close operational ties with al-Qaida terrorists. Evidence was lacking for both, despite claims by President Bush and others, Thielmann said in an interview. Suspicions were presented as fact, contrary arguments ignored, he said. The administration’s pre-war portrayal of Iraq’s weapons capabilities has not been validated despite weeks of searching by military experts. Alleged stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons have not turned up, nor has significant evidence of a nuclear weapons program or links to the al-Qaida network.

Bush has said administration assertions on Iraq will be verified in time. The CIA and other agencies have vigorously defended their pre-war performances.

Thielmann suggested mistakes may have been made at points all along the chain from when intelligence is gathered, analyzed, presented to the President and then provided to the public. The evidence of a renewed nuclear programme in Iraq was far more limited than the administration contended, he said. “When the administration did talk about specific evidence – it was basically declassified, sensitive information – it did it in a way that was also not entirely honest,” Thielmann said.

In his State of the Union address, Bush said, “The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.” The Africa claim rested on a purported letter or letters between officials in Iraq and Niger held by European intelligence agencies. The communications are now accepted as forged, and Thielmann said he believed the information on Africa was discounted months before Bush mentioned it. “I was very surprised to hear what he announced to the United States and the entire world,” he said. Some critics have suggested that the White House and Pentagon policy-makers pressured the CIA and military intelligence to come up with conclusions favourable to an attack-Iraq policy. The CIA and military have denied such charges. Thielmann said that generally he felt no such pressure. Although his office did not directly handle terrorism issues, Thielmann said he was similarly unconvinced of a strong link between al-Qaida and Saddam’s government. Yet, the implication from Bush downwards was that Saddam supported Osama bin Laden’s network. Iraq and the Sept. 11 attacks frequently were mentioned in the same sentence, even though officials have no good evidence of any link between the two.

The Twin Summits:
Roadmap to Nowhere?
The reciprocal promises made by the leaders of Israel and Palestine at the Jordanian port city of Aqaba on June 4, 2003 may sound good but do not provide any guarantee to the full and final settlement of their disputes that have plagued them over many decades. The pledges they made in the presence of the US President were at best seen as the rejection of the policy of violence that they have pursued.

Altogether the signs are not good at present. Sharon’s supporters and followers, mostly hardliners and orthodox Jews have displayed dejection over Sharon’s undertaking that unauthorized outposts would be vacated as per the roadmap. Another alarming aspect is the reported differences that have already emerged between him and Abbas over the number of outposts that are to be dismantled. The Sharon government had hesitated and faltered before finally announcing its acceptance of the roadmap expressing as many as 14 reservations. Despite Sharon’s undertaking, the settlement activities continue although the roadmap calls for a halt to such activity; it also proposes a dismantling of all Jewish settlements built after March 2001. It remains to be seen whether Israel will really do this.

Prime Minister Abbas also faces a daunting challenge on the home front. His assurance of reining in the militant groups was promptly rejected by Hamas and Islamic Jihad who refused to surrender arms until the total liberation of Palestine. Abbas is in a Catch-22 situation; he wants to stop the militant groups but does not have the means (security apparatus) to assert his will over these liberation groups. The ball is more or less in the Israeli court; if Israel is really interested in peace, perhaps it could match its words of peaceful coexistence with deeds without asking (or expecting) the Palestinian to act first, a way out could be found. But this may prove to be wishful thinking.

Meanwhile, President Bush’s comments at the Middle East Peace Summit in Egypt asking PM Mahmoud Abbas to “stop” the Palestinian resistance has outraged Hamas who has threatened to disavow PM Abbas as a representative of the Palestinians if he does not reject US President George W. Bush’s comments.

Sino-Russian Understanding
Russia and China are making a determined bid to come closer to each other. Chinese and Russian defence ministers agreed in Moscow to “widen” bilateral relations, including military ties. There has been a steady growth in the relations between these two countries who also share similar views on a number of major international issues such as their anti-war stand on Iraq, their opposition to American forces in Central Asia and their common views on the US-North Korean row over Pyongyang’s weapons programme. Both countries had also signed a friendship treaty in 2002 and are also members of the six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) which will be turned into a security organization by 2004. All these could be seen as a result of the widespread annoyance against the US for its unilateral war on Iraq.

UN to Press for Release of Aung San Suu Kyi
UN special envoy, Razali met Myanmar officials on June 5 to press for the release of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi who was detained last week after a deadly clash between her followers and government supporters. The ruling generals have held the Nobel peace laureate at an undisclosed location since the violence as she toured a provincial town. Meanwhile the United States said it suspected Suu Kyi and her convoy were ambushed and attacked by “government-affiliated thugs”. Myanmar military says four people died and 50 were injured in the clashes but dissidents in exile suspect perhaps as many as 75 of Suu Kyi’s supporters were killed. Diplomats and dissidents fear Suu Kyi was injured in the May 30 violence but Myanmar officials have denied that.

Razali also wanted to see senior leaders of Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) who have been confined to their houses by the military for the past week. But he told reporters the military had not yet given any signal they would allow him access to the NLD leadership.

Razali has visited Myanmar several times in the past two years to try to encourage talks on a democratic transition in the country that the military has ruled since a 1962 coup. He was instrumental in persuading the generals to free Suu Kyi from a spell of house arrest in May 2002 after a series of “confidence-building” talks between the junta and the NLD.

The United States and Britain have stepped up diplomatic pressure for Suu Kyi’s release and called on the junta to allow Razali to meet her.

The NLD swept to a landslide election victory in 1990, but has never been allowed to rule.

US Opposition to Chirac’s Vision of Multi-polarity
US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice attacked French President Jacques Chirac’s concept of a multi-polar world, dismissing it as a “theory of rivalry” that had never promoted peace. In an address to the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), she said: “Multipolarity was never a unifying idea or vision... it was a necessary evil that sustained the essence of war but did not promote peace, it is a theory of rivalry, of competing interests and, at its very worst, of competing values. We tried it before... it led to the Great War, to the Second World War and to the Cold War.”

She questioned the motives of those who “nostalgically” sought to defend this concept of international relations. Although she did not refer specifically to France, Rice’s remarks represented thinly veiled criticism of Paris’ stance. Throughout the Iraq crisis, France defended its vision of a multi-polar world of various power centres, including the United States and Europe, to justify its right to express different views from those of Washington. At the G8 summit of the world’s leading industrial nations in the French town of Evian in June, Chirac – determined to promote his vision of a multi-polar world – invited leaders from a dozen emerging and developing states to join in the talks.

EU – Divided and Reluctant

The US appeal to the European Union (EU) to cut off funding to the Palestinian militant group Hamas is unlikely to find an unequivocal echo within the European Union, which is divided on the issue. At this week’s summit meeting between the US and European leaders, aimed at improving relations, President George W. Bush said that the dismantling of groups such as Hamas would be the “true test” of the roadmap to peace in the Middle East. He urged the leaders in Europe and around the world to take swift, decisive action against terrorist groups such as Hamas, to cut off their funding and support.

The EU delegation headed by Commission President Romano Prodi and Greek Prime Minister Constantine Simitis, included Javier Solana, High Representative for the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy. The meeting in Washington was the first formal EU-US summit since the Iraq war, which bitterly divided Washington and its European allies as France and Germany, two of the EU’s most powerful members, refused to back the US-led invasion. Although an extradition deal between the EU and the US was signed at the summit, authorizing the sharing of information and broadening the scope of crimes to which extradition would apply, continuing differences were apparent as President Bush pressed the EU to crack down on Hamas. Between 1994 and 2001, the EU gave 1.446 billion euros in aid to the Palestinians. EU member states supported the Palestinian Authority with an additional one billion euros. The US has listed Hamas on the whole as a “foreign terrorist organization” for many years, but the EU continues to distinguish between its military activities and its political and social role in the Palestinian territories.

The fissures within the 15-nation EU have been surfacing even before the EU-US summit. Britain, for example, has already indicated that it supports Washington’s stance over Hamas, but faces strong opposition from France. At a meeting in Luxembourg on June 17, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw pressed his EU colleagues to outlaw the political wing if their attacks do not cease. However, French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin insisted that Hamas was a necessary player in the peace process.

Asked about differences within the European Union, a spokesperson for the EU, refused to indicate which member states were against the outlawing of Hamas and which were in favour. Michael Emmerson, expert in EU foreign policy and Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies, told IPS that the EU faces a “difficult decision”. But it might be just the right one. Emmerson said: “The EU is looking for ways to find areas of convergence with the US to mend relations after the war in Iraq and so the outlawing of Hamas could provide it with a good opportunity to improve these relations. It also wants to show the world that the EU is not just a soft power and that it is hardening up at the edges.”

The EU spokesperson said: “There is an active debate within Europe about the most useful way of applying pressure. All tactics will be considered and we will decide according to what is happening on the ground. Although there have been tense moments between the EU and US over the war in Iraq there is still a good relationship between the two. The test is not if you disagree but whether you can resolve problems.”

US Shifting Troops To Far-Flung Bases
According to a US Defence official, in the most extensive global realignment of US military forces since the end of the Cold War, the Bush administration is creating a network of far-flung military bases designed for the rapid projection of American military power against terrorists, hostile states and other potential adversaries. The withdrawal of US troops from the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea and the recent removal of most US forces from Saudi Arabia are the opening moves in a complex shift that should replace most large, permanent US bases overseas with smaller facilities that can be used as needed.

The bases are being built or expanded in countries such as Qatar, Bulgaria and Kyrgyzstan and the US territory of Guam. While existing US bases in Germany and South Korea, in place for more than 50 years, were designed to deter major communist adversaries, the new bases will become key nodes in the implementation of the administration’s doctrine of pre-emptive attack against terrorists and hostile states believed to have chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.
Their location is based on the premise that US forces must be able to strike rapidly against adversaries who may be armed with weapons of mass destruction before they can attack the United States or its allies. The basing strategy is also predicated on Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s oft-stated belief that the United States cannot predict who its adversaries are going to be.

The new network of bases corresponds to what Defence officials call an “arc of instability” that runs from the Andean region in the Southern Hemisphere through North Africa to the Middle East and into Southeast Asia. It is revealed that the new basing concept would require fundamental changes in the way US forces are structured and transported by air and sea. They would need to be deployed around the world in smaller units more much rapidly, often falling in on equipment already in place.

The United States would maintain a ring of permanent military “hubs” on US territory, such as Guam, and in closely allied countries, such as Britain and possibly Japan. But many of the major bases on which it had relied, such as those in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Germany and South Korea, will be replaced by dozens of spartan “forward operating bases” in southern Europe, the Middle East and Asia, maintained only by small, permanent support units. According to plan, beyond the hubs and forward operating bases would lie a ring of “forward operating locations,” or prearranged but unmaintained staging areas US forces would be allowed by host nations to occupy quickly in the event of a conflict. Officials said these forward facilities would be augmented by greater reliance on basing forces and equipment aboard ships at sea, and on pre-positioning forces and heavy combat equipment at staging areas along major shipping routes.

Defence officials cited a series of basing agreements developed in the Persian Gulf in anticipation of the Iraq war as a prototype for those they want in other parts of the world. Although US forces have vacated two large permanent air bases in Saudi Arabia and Turkey which were used to patrol the northern and southern “no-fly” zones over Iraq for more than a decade, they have established forward operating bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates. Military personnel are stationed in all of these countries, with 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, a major Air Force operations centre in Qatar and two huge Army bases in Kuwait. But there are no combat units permanently based in any of those countries, as there are in Germany, home to the Army’s 1st Armoured and 1st Infantry divisions. The continued basing of 60,000 Army troops in Germany, where they have been since the end of World War II, is under review. Defence officials want to continue using Ramstein Air Base in southern Germany and view it as a critical hub facility for supporting deployments to more distant forward operating bases and locations.

Another scenario under consideration, Defence officials said, calls for the troops in Germany to be brought home and based in the United States. They could then be rotated on six-month assignments in countries such as Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, which are closer to the Balkans and Central Asia and less restrictive than Germany as training sites.

Defence officials are also interested in operating locations along southern European shipping routes in Italy, Spain and Portugal. Farther east, in Central Asia, the US plans on maintaining bases in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which were established in 2001 to support the war in Afghanistan. In Asia, the relocation of 18,000 Army troops away from the Demilitarized Zone in South Korea to areas 75 miles south is designed to make them more mobile, freeing them to respond to other emergencies in the region. Ultimately, some of those troops might be brought to the United States and deployed to South Korea on six-month rotations.

Defence officials say there is no plan for moving all 20,000 Marines out of Okinawa. But they are looking at repositioning the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force from its current locations in Okinawa, Hawaii and Guam. The Pentagon is hoping to possibly re-establish bases or locations in the Philippines, although it is not clear how receptive the Philippines government will be. The Pentagon is also considering bases or staging areas in northeast Australia, where the US military has close ties and excellent training relationships with the Australian military. But one official said he doubted any forthcoming agreements would call for US Marines to be permanently based there.

Blair, Bush Lose Face over Iraq’s ‘mobile labs’

George Bush and Tony Blair face a fresh crisis over Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction, as evidence emerges that two vehicles that they have repeatedly claimed to be Iraqi mobile biological warfare production units are nothing of the sort. The intelligence agency MI6, British Defence officers and technical experts from the Porton Down microbiological research establishment have been ordered to conduct an urgent review of the mobile facilities, following US analysis which casts serious doubt on whether they really are germ labs.

The British review comes amid widespread doubts expressed by scientists on both sides of the Atlantic that the trucks could have been used to make biological weapons. Instead, it is increasingly likely that the units were designed to be used for hydrogen production to fill artillery balloons, part of a system originally sold to Saddam by Britain in 1987.

The British review follows access by UK officials to the vehicles which were discovered by US troops in April and May. The claim, however, that the two vehicles are mobile germ labs has been repeated frequently by both Blair and George Bush in recent days in support of claims that they prove the existence of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction.

During his tour of the Gulf, Europe and Russia, Blair repeatedly briefed journalists that the trailers were germ production labs which proved that Iraq had WMD. But chemical weapons experts, engineers, chemists and military systems experts contacted by The Observer over the past week say the layout and equipment found on the trailers is entirely inconsistent with the vehicles being mobile labs. Both US Secretary of State Colin Powell, when he addressed the UN Security Council prior to the war, and the British Government alleged that Saddam had such labs.

A separate investigation published by the New York Times discloses that the trailers have now been investigated by three different teams of Western experts, with the third and most senior group of analysts apparently divided sharply over their function. “I have no great confidence that it’s a fermenter,” a senior analyst said of a tank supposed to be capable of multiplying seed germs into lethal swarms. The government’s public report, he said, “was a rushed job and looks political”. The analyst had not seen the trailers, but reviewed evidence from them.

Another intelligence expert who has seen the trailers told the US paper: “Everyone has wanted to find the ‘smoking gun’ so much that they may have wanted to have reached this conclusion. I am very upset with the process.”


Questions over the claimed purpose of the trailer for making biological weapons include:
 
(1) The lack of any trace of pathogens found in the fermentation tanks. According to experts, when weapons inspectors checked tanks in the mid-Nineties that had been scoured to disguise their real use, traces of pathogens were still detectable.
(2) The use of canvas sides on vehicles where technicians would be working with dangerous germ cultures.
(3) A shortage of pumps that are required to create vacuum conditions for working with germ cultures and other processes usually associated with making biological weapons.
(4) The lack of an autoclave for steam sterilization, normally a prerequisite for any kind of biological production. Its lack of availability between production runs would threaten to let in germ contaminants, resulting in failed weapons.
(5) The lack of any easy way for technicians to remove germ fluids from the processing tank.
 
Draft EU Constitution Adopted
A landmark Convention on the Future of Europe adopted the first draft constitution for an enlarged European Union by consensus, 46 years after the founding Treaty of Rome was signed. However, a majority of the 28 participating governments tarnished the celebration by signalling they would fight in negotiations later this year to preserve complex voting rules that give small states power disproportionate to their population. Key reforms include the appointment of a long-term president of the European Council for up to five years, replacing the current rotating presidency, under which each member state takes the helm for six months. The draft proposes an EU foreign minister and a slimmed-down executive European Commission of 15 full members, based on the principle of strict rotation to ensure equality of states. It foresees much more majority decision-making.

Reflecting fears of many in the Convention that governments will try to water down the text, Antonio Vitorino, the European Commissioner for Justice and Home Affairs, said the reforms were essential as a whole for an effective EU. Amid the general euphoria, Jens-Peter Bonde, a Eurosceptic Danish member of the European Parliament, sounded a dissonant note, saying the constitution would lead to an EU “super state” of which the real losers were their own peoples.

On the other hand, Commission President Romano Prodi, a Roman Catholic, lamented the lack of any reference in the draft constitution’s preamble to God or Christianity, though the text does speak of Europe’s “cultural, religious and humanist inheritance”.

“To ignore 1,500 years of civilization is to create a vacuum in our consciousness, in our identity as Europeans,” he said. Several federally-minded members of the Convention voiced regret that the draft left intact member states’ right of veto on foreign policy and taxation issues. Britain had resisted any dilution of this right. One issue that is sure to feature in the IGC is an unresolved dispute over the future system for majority voting .

UK Decides Against Joining Euro
Britain ruled out joining the Euro, common EU currency for now, but surprised critics by saying it may take another look at the divisive currency debate next year. Chancellor of the Exchequer (finance minister) Gordon Brown told parliament Britain would not benefit at the moment from adopting the EU single currency, saying four of the five tests he set in 1997 had not been met. But in surprisingly enthusiastic comments, he also outlined the government’s vision in principle for signing up at a future date to the currency already adopted by 12 of the 15 EU members.

Mr. Brown added that the tests could be re-examined early next year and, if positive then, would lead to a referendum. According to the policy, “ the government’s view is that if the economic case is clear and unambiguous, then the constitutional issue, while a factor in the decision, should not be a bar to entry. If on the basis of the five economic tests, membership of the Euro is shown as good for sustaining British jobs, British business and British future prosperity, then it is economically right and in the national interest to join.” Analysts say the Euro verdict is a carefully concocted compromise between Mr. Brown’s fear of jeopardizing his domestic economic record, and Mr. Blair’s belief that Britain’s “destiny” is to adopt the currency and take a place at the heart of Europe.

Studies released by the British Treasury highlighted the key obstacles to Britain joining the Euro now. Running to over 1,700 pages, Britain’s housing market made it more sensitive to interest rate changes and that progress on labour market flexibility in the European Union lagged.   Furthermore, Britain’s economy remained more in tune with that of the United States than the EU. On the positive side, the studies said there were clear potential benefits in terms of greater trade with the EU, should Britain swap currencies.

Special Emphasis on Terrorism
The al-Qaida Threat to
USA and other countries
 
USA
Following a report that terrorists planned to attack US interests in Kenya, the US embassy in Nairobi was closed for an indefinite period on June 20. Pentagon officials have however said that the US embassy was not specifically named and the closure was just a precautionary measure.
 
South America
71 employees of an Argentinean firm engaged in a construction project in Peru were kidnapped on June 9. 
 
Europe
In the first week of June the French police arrested two men suspected of being members of al-Qaida. An unidentified man threw two homemade bombs in the garden of the US consulate in the southern Turkish city of Adana on June 11. An illegal arms cache was discovered and seized on June 10 by the German police. In a suicide bomb attack on June 5 at least 15 people were killed when a bus, carrying about 40 passengers, blew up en route from the North Ossetian city of Mozdok to Prokhladnoye in Russia. On June 5, the Belgian government announced that it had arrested an Iraqi national suspected of sending envelopes containing nerve gas to Belgian government offices and the US, British and Saudi embassies in Brussels.

The French police released a study on June 2 indicating that ETA cells operating in France have moved further to the north, most likely because of the numerous arrests of their cadre in the traditional Basque area near the border.  The report says ETA has regrouped in cities such as Bordeaux, where several key arrests have already been made, Lyon, Toulouse, and Paris.

In a new development, the United Nations has included Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, the former President of Chechnya, in its list of people having ties to the al-Qaida.

Authorities in Kyrgyz say they have uncovered a huge cache of weapons in the Batken area. The weapons, said to be of Russian, Iran and Pakistan origin, are believed to have been stored by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) for future use.

Chechen militants with ties to al-Qaida have been blamed by the Russian authorities for the June 19 land mine explosion under a police bus that killed three people and injured seven. Officials say the land mine was activated by remote control. According to a Georgian interior ministry spokesman, police in Tblisi have found two boxes containing cesium 137 and strontium 90 and nerve gas concentrate. In Tajikistan, authorities have arrested 20 persons suspected to be members of Hizb ul-Tahrir. According to the authorities membership of the Hizb ul-Tahrir is increasing. In Italy following raids by the police in Milan on June 24, six persons suspected to be Islamic extremists were arrested. The six include one Moroccan and five Tunisians.

As part of its tough stance against Muslim extremism, the Dutch government has passed tough laws. The laws empower the government to ban extremist groups and enable prosecutors to use confidential state intelligence in court. Two members of Italy’s Red Brigade were arrested on June 23 in Paris, France following a request by Italian judges. France has been favoured as a safe haven by members of the Red Brigade but France has changed its policy of providing asylum. In Spain the Basque group ETA claimed responsibility for a bomb attack on a hotel in Bilbao on June 23.

The Albanian National Army is blamed for two bomb blasts on June 22 in a commercial area of Skopje, Macedonia. In France two suspected members of al-Qaida were arrested at Charles de Gaulle airport. In Russia 55 persons have been arrested by the Federal Security Force on suspicion of being members of the Hizb ul-Tahrir. In France Police conducted raids in Paris and arrested 159 Iranians belonging to the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). NCRI’s military wing, the People’s Mujahideen has been declared by the European Union as a terrorist group. Two van bombs, each containing more than 1,000 pounds of explosives, were seized in Londonderry, Northern Ireland on June 15, and in Ireland on June 13. The Spanish Basque ETA has been blamed for a bomb explosion that damaged a Spanish school in Rome on June 17. On June 14, Spanish police defused a car bomb in Bilbao that contained 66 pounds of explosives packed inside a pressure cooker connected to a timer.

Middle East
In Saudi Arabia Yousuf Saleh el-Eiery was killed in a shoot-out with local police on May 31. According to reports, al-Eiery and an accomplice had attacked a police party by throwing grenades which resulted in the death of two officers. A Frenchman, Robert Antoine-Pierre was arrested in Tangiers by the Moroccan police on suspicion of involvement in the May 16 attack in Casablanca. Saudi officials revealed that they have in custody Ali Abd al-Rahman al-Faqasi al-Ghamdi believed to be one of the top al-Qaida members in Saudi Arabia. Al-Ghamdi is believed to be involved in the May 26 attack on the expatriate housing complexes in Riyadh and Saudi officials hope that he will identify other al-Qaida members in the country. Saudi Arabia and Yemen decided to cooperate with each other in a bid to control terrorism and arms smuggling. Arms smuggling poses a mutual problem and has been the cause of some tensions between the two countries. Violence has once again erupted in Israel. Following Israel’s attempt to assassinate Dr Abdul Aziz Rantissi, a Hamas leader as well as an increase in attacks against Palestinians, Hamas has stepped up its attacks against Israeli targets.

Asia- Pacific
As part of its campaign against terrorists, the Australian government announced on June 1 that it planned to give airport security officers greater power to search, detain and question anyone who acted in a suspicious manner. However airlines are apprehensive that such a move could add two hours to boarding time, resulting in delayed flights.

East Asia/ south East Asia
Cesium-137 was again involved when a Thai police arrested a Thai in Bangkok for trying to sell this radio-active material. The man arrested claims he obtained the material from Laos and said he had no connection to terrorists. In China, a small, homemade bomb exploded in a restroom of a McDonald’s restaurant in the northwestern city of Xi’an the afternoon of June 15. Following a tip five Indonesians, carrying a bomb, were arrested on June 17 by police in the Philippines. The Swedish embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia, was closed indefinitely on June 3 after receiving threats and Swedish nationals were asked to take extra precautions.10 more suspected members of the Jemaah Islamiah (JI) have been arrested by the Indonesian police for involvement in the October 2002 bomb attacks in Bali. The arrest on May 16 in Bangkok of Arifin bin Ali (alias John Wong Ah Hung) a Singapore national led to the arrest of three Thai nationals. Arifin is suspected of heading an earlier Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) plan to crash a plane at Changi Airport (Singapore) that was, however, foiled.

During interrogation by the Singapore authorities Arifin gave the names of three Thais who he said were his accomplices in the Changi Airport plot. These three Thai nationals arrested by Thai authorities on June 10 include a medical doctor, a Muslim teacher and his son. This is the first instance of Thai nationals being linked to the JI which is said to be planning attacks against western foreign missions and tourist areas in Thailand. The Muslim teacher and his son have confessed to membership of JI while the doctor has admitted to making false passports for JI members but claimed not be a member of JI. The Thai police are monitoring several others suspected of involvement in the plot but no arrests have been made. In Cambodia on June 11 police arrested a 23-year-old Muslim Cambodian national suspected of having ties to the Jemaah Islamiah and by implication to al-Qaida. The trial of Ali Gufron, the alleged operations chief of the Jemaah Islamiah (JI) network held responsible for the October 2002 bomb attacks in Bali, is scheduled to begin on June 16, 2003 in Indonesia. The arrest by the Philippines’ authorities in May of Saifullah Yunos (or Mukhlis Yonus) of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and his confession has confirmed ties between MILF and the Jemaah Islamiah, therefore by extension to al-Qaida.

The Philippines government has already warned the MILF to sever ties with foreign extremist groups and to stop its attacks on civilians in Mindanao or be declared a terrorist group.

South Asia/ SAARC
In Pakistan, police arrested five members of the banned Lashkar-e-Jhangvi following a raid in Multan on June 22. Those arrested are said to be involved in the kidnap and murder of Daniel Pearl. Of those arrested one is a local leader wanted for attacks on Shias as well as police. The LeJ was banned by the Pakistan government in 2001.

A medical student from Sudan was arrested on June 25 by police in Bangladesh. Police have given no details but the Sudanese is said to have al-Qaida links. A local leader of the Awami League, the main opposition party in Bangladesh, was killed on June 23 by members of the banned Purba Bangla Communist Party.

According to reports the politician was in a shop when he was attacked with iron bars and knives. In Quetta, Pakistan twelve trainee policemen were gunned down on June 8, 2003 around 4:50 PM as they were on their way to the Police Training School. All twelve belonged to the Shia community.

Africa
Following the extradition of five people, suspected to be al-Qaida members, to the USA, people took to the streets in Malawi in protest on June 27, setting fire to a church.

Regional
Pakistan-India Relations
Prospects for dialogue between India and Pakistan have suffered due to many moves taken by the Indian authorities. India opposed Pakistan’s entry into the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). Moreover, during the talks between visiting Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani and US Attorney General John Ashcroft in Washington on June 10, 2003, it has handed over to the United States certain documents relating to Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. According to the Deputy Premier, “certain papers that we had which we felt could be shared with America, we handed over to Ashcroft.”

Describing Pakistan as the “epicentre of international terrorism” Mr. Advani said on June 12 that India and the US should work together to defeat the menace, which is a “threat not only to the security of the two countries but to peace and tranquillity around the world.” At a time when efforts are being made to clean the air for purposeful dialogue, such statements that reflect the past set positions are not welcome.

Pakistan on the other hand warned the West not to allow India to develop a military superiority that would leave Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal as its “only real deterrent”. President Gen Pervez Musharraf said it was not the time for crisis management but conflict resolution for a lasting peace in South Asia because another conflict would be unthinkable.

Stating Pakistan’s position on Kashmir, President Musharraf said Kashmir should be resolved in line with UN resolutions, as it had bedevilled peace and progress in the region. He said Pakistan was ready to take four steps if India took one towards establishing a lasting peace in the region. He asserted that “Pakistan will make its full and honest contribution to, and will not be found wanting in arriving at, a just and honourable settlement of the Kashmir dispute.” It is also notable that Musharraf’s proposal to have a roadmap for Kashmir peace like in Middle East was rejected by India.

Good intentions from both the sides to improve relations should be met with deeds and policies that facilitate peace process instead of aggravating tension. Whatever internal compulsion there may be the two governments to assert old positions (many analysts argue that such remarks are aimed to appease hard liners), it should not be allowed to reach a stage where the momentum of peace is lost.

Sino-India Relations

A very significant development in the regional security environment was Prime Minister Vajpayee’s visit to China where both countries decided to shun their differences in full letter and spirit. Both countries signed a joint declaration that calls for cooperation and commercial links. Significantly they decided to open part of their disputed Himalayan territory for transaction.

The visit can be better understood in a broader international security environment. A regional block with the thawing of relations between China, India, Russia and to an extent Iran is in offing that, in due course of time will surely be very counter-productive for US supremacy. India is playing its card very wisely and knitting itself with countries that will be leading players of tomorrow’s world.

Pakistan-US Relations
President Pervez Musharraf’s visit to the US was the most important development of the week that clearly shows the US effort to bolster President Musharraf’s position as evident from his visit to Camp David, making him the first South Asian leader to be accorded that honour. Although the Pakistan Government propagated the visit as being very important to regional peace and security and to Pakistan’s benefit, many critics argue that it is in the interest of President Musharraf to strengthen his rule. President Bush praised Musharraf’s policies and also announced a US$ 3 billion aid package. However, the package is tied to an annual review of Pakistan’s cooperation in the war on terrorism, control of the spread of nuclear weapons and strengthening of democracy at home. Quoting a senior official in the Bush administration, the Washington Post reported the package would be evenly divided over five years and is part of a “long-term commitment” by Presidents Bush and Gen Musharraf based on specific goals the two countries agreed on. The package still has to be approved by Congress; nonetheless, the prospects for congressional approval are favourable. The assistance plan would help the Bush administration “maintain pressure on President Musharraf to take concrete steps that would seal his promises to help combat Al Qaida, stem the transfer of weapon technologies and restore democracy,” the report said. Half of the amount of the package will be spent on budget thus, which sector would be the beneficiary is not difficult to imagine. Unfortunately at a time when other security blocks are being formed to counter balance of power, Pakistan should have reshuffled its priorities instead of leaning too much towards the US. It’s decision to send its troops in Iraq is also not a welcome step especially in the light of fact that President Musharraf chose the foreign media to announce this decision. It is bound to create insecurity at home.

India Recognizes Tibet Part of China
India officially recognized Tibet as a part of China in a joint declaration signed on June 21 by Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, as the two neighbours tried to close the door on long-standing disputes and chart a new relationship. Ties between the Asian giants have for decades been plagued by tensions over issues such as Tibet and the two countries fought a bitter border conflict in 1962.

US-India Relations
According to a report in one of the leading dailies, the US and India are discussing a plan that will give New Delhi a greater role in Asia and bring about a major geo-political change in the region. According to this plan, India will be given the responsibility to maintain stability in South Asia and may also be asked to increase its presence in Southeast Asia to counter the growing Chinese influence. The sources said that the US Pacific Command, which controls US troops in the Southeast Asian region, also wants to share lesser responsibilities with the Indian Navy. This could include patrolling commercial sea routes, such as the Strait of Malacca and the Gulf of Aden, where piracy is a major problem. However, this proposal is opposed by the US Central Command, which is responsible for America’s military presence in the Middle East and Central Asia, including Pakistan and Afghanistan. The CENTCOM believes that such a move could undermine America’s relations with Pakistan.

Despite these differences, of more important for US policy planners is India’s concern about China’s growth both as a military and economic power, a concern that also worries the Bush administration. They point out that in 1962 India lost territory to China and, therefore, could be a natural ally in the US efforts to contain China. India is apprehensive of the naval facilities China is building on both sides of the subcontinent. In Myanmar it is modernizing naval bases on the Bay of Bengal while in Pakistan it is developing the port of Gwadar, seen by Delhi as a potential threat to India’s sea communications.

It is also important to note that senior US and Indian military advisers gathered at the Pentagon to discuss common US and Indian interests in this region. According to the US media, the discussions focused on setting up a formal Defence alliance between the US and India that would be open to other western-aligned East Asian countries such as Singapore, South Korea and perhaps Japan. Diplomatic observers believe that if such an alliance were formed, it would augment the enormous shift in the correlation of forces already under way in Asia.

Armament
* India successfully test-fired its medium range surface-to-air Akash missile from the Chandipur testing range off its eastern coast. The missile, first tested in July 2000, was most recently test-fired on May 29 and June 2. Akash can carry a 50kg warhead and can simultaneously track several targets.

* India test-fired its homegrown short-range surface-to-air Trishul missile from Orissa. The missile – test-fired successfully from a mobile launcher and one of the five developed by India’s Defence Research and Development Organization since 1983 – is powered by solid fuel and can deliver a 15-kilogram warhead up to nine kilometres away. The missile is being developed for the army, navy and air force.


Afghanistan
Operations are being stepped up by the coalition forces in south Afghanistan as this area remains the hub of Taliban/al-Qaida activities. The Afghan government has also indicated that most of the terrorist attacks are being conducted from the southern parts of the country. UN Special Representative Lakhdar Brahimi told the Security Council that the issue of security casts a long shadow over the whole peace process and indeed over the future of Afghanistan.

The security situation outside Kabul may not be improved without the expansion of ISAF to other parts of Afghanistan as it is strongly believed that the Taliban are not the only source of disruption. The strong ethnic factions which are part of the government are a constant irritant for the government. If the US is serious about stability it will have to take on spoilers within the government, including some of those the US armed to fight the Taliban/al-Qaida.

The Afghan Vice President Hedayat Amin Arsala reaffirmed his government’s calls for expansion of the international peace-keeping force inside Afghanistan saying that disarmament was a must for peace. He also said that the expansion of the peacekeeping force would also allow an expansion of provincial reconstruction teams. He stressed for a proper national army and a well-trained national police for a stable Afghanistan. Babra Stapleton, the Advocacy Coordinator for the Kabul based Academy Coordination Body for Afghan Relief (ACBAR) said that the incident in Konduz was a worrying development and that “we have made our opinion clear regarding the deteriorating security situation”. The security situation across Afghanistan has steadily deteriorated in 2003.

Kabul’s law and order situation took a nosedive after a suicide car bomber killed four German peacekeepers on a busy Kabul street. Attacks against US forces in Southern Afghanistan have become more common but this was the first attack to have killed international peacekeepers in Kabul which raises serious concerns about the growing confidence of Al-Qaida and other groups opposed to the US-backed Afghan government. This attack has reopened debate on whether the international security force in Kabul should expand operations to other parts of the country. President Karzai has also backed moves for such an expansion. United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan has also suggested that ISAF troops be also deployed in Herat, Mazar Sharif and Jalalabad. On economic front, the Afghanistan Government has collected US$ 20 million from Herat province through a team led by the Afghan Finance Minister. On his return the FM stated that the funds, which were collected from provinces, had allowed about US$ 7 million worth of back pay to be released to the military. He said that US$ 1.5 million was collected from Nangarhar province while Nimroz province had promised to release US$ 1.5 million; the other eight provinces visited by finance officials turned over smaller amounts, less than a million US dollars each. While the provinces were cooperative with the Kabul officials in handing over a proportion of their income, according to the Afghan Finance Ministry this represents only a small percentage of their real income.

India: Internal Dynamics
Secessionist Movements within India
The extremely repressive policy that India has pursued against its own people over the years has spawned a large number of secessionist movements within the country which are fighting for independence. The largest democracy now has the dubious distinction of being host to more than 12 such movements; some put the figure at 17. The following are some of the organizations that are waging a struggle for separate homelands:-

 
Assam
(1)   United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)
(2)   National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), 
(3)   United People’s Democratic Solidarity (UPDS), 
(4)   Bodo Liberation Tiger Force (BLTF), 
(5)   Dima Halim Daogah (DHD), 
(6)   Adivasi Security Force (ASF), 
(7)   All Assam Adivasi Suraksha Samiti (AAASS), 
(8)   Gorkha Tiger Force (GTF), 
(9)   Barak Valley Youth Liberation (BVYLF), 
(10) Kamatapar Liberation Organization (KLO),
(11)
Hmar People’s Convention-Democracy (HPC-D),
(12) Karbi National Security Force (RNSF), 
(13) Rabha National Security Force (RNSF),
(14) Koch Rajbongshi Liberation Organization (KRLO),  
(15) Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA), 
(16) Muslim United Liberation Front of Assam (MULFA), 
(17) Muslim Security Council of Assam (MSCA), 
(18) United Liberation Militia of Assam (ULMA), 
(19) Islamic Sevak Sangh (ISS), 
(20) People’s United Liberation Front (PULF) and many others.