Executive Summary of the Month
Voices are now being raised within official and unofficial circles in the US after initial doubts and questions over President Bush’s claims of Iraq possessing Weapons of Mass Destruction that justified US war on Iraq. The challenge was so intense that the Bush Administration had to accept that its report was based on false assumptions, based mainly on intelligence provided by the British. Recently former Head of UN Inspections Hans Blix has ridiculed the British findings that Iraq could make WMDs operational in 45 minutes. Growing resentment over Bush Administration policies are also evident in the somewhat lukewarm welcome that was accorded to President Bush in Africa in contrast to that given a few years ago to Bill Clinton. Regardless of all this, the administration is sticking to its statements of fighting threats against its interests.

British Premier, Tony Blair’s appeal to the United States during his address to the joint session of the US Congress that war against terrorism and tyranny should also be fought with values and not just weapons is a clear indication that the mood in politics is changing, at least for awhile as there is a great hue and cry over the intelligence used by President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair in order to go to war with Iraq. The apparent “suicide” of WMD expert Dr Kelly, the British government employee who identified himself as the mole who revealed intelligence to BBC reporter Gilligan, has put Blair’s government in a tight situation, with calls for the British PM’s resignation.

Regional conflicts have proved too intricate to resolve. After initial euphoria, relations between India and Pakistan are gradually reverting to the routine, indicating perhaps that no real change to the old mindset can be expected. The situation in Kashmir continues to be violent and casualties keep on mounting. Though with diplomatic ties restored between India and Pakistan one may be optimistic in hoping for some changes for the better, but as events seem to suggest, not in the immediate future.

Same is the case in Palestine. Despite the declaration of ceasefire by three Palestinian organizations and pull-out by Israeli forces violence continues. Events suggest that there may be tough times ahead for Iran that will now have to strive hard to maintain its credibility in the region after moves made by the US.

China is now brokering a peace deal between the USA and North Korea over an eight-month-old dispute over the issue of weapons of mass destruction.

Borders skirmishes between Pakistan and Afghanistan, following the attack on the Pakistani Embassy in Kabul, is a matter of concern. Peaceful borders are one of the primary objectives of any state’s policy. It is important for Pakistan to have good relations with Afghanistan not only due to strategic reasons but also because our fundamental interests are attached to good ties. Thus, a very cautious approach needs to be adopted in this regard. Afghanistan must also realize that it has a responsibility to ensure that relations are not soured.

Internally, the month saw a melting of ice over the controversial issues of LFO and President Musharraf’s position. MMA agreed to accept President Musharraf as Chief of Army Staff till November 2004 provided LFO is not made part of constitution and its agreed points are presented in the Parliament in form of a bill.

-International -
US Policy To Have Global Strike Capability Within Two Hours
The US Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency has launched a programme called Project FALCON to develop a hypersonic unmanned aircraft able to strike any target around the globe in less than two hours from the United States. Project FALCON could revolutionize modern warfare and deeply affect the US strategic posture and foreign policy.

This capability would free the US military from reliance on forward basing to enable it to react promptly and decisively to destabilizing and threatening actions by hostile countries and terrorist organizations.

According to a defence official, the Hypersonic Cruise Vehicle, as the concept drone is called, should be able to take off from a US air base, fly 14,400 kilometres (9,000 miles) in under 120 minutes and deliver an assortment of smart bombs and cruise missiles weighing up to 5.4 tonnes to a chosen target. The system should be ready for deployment circa 2025.

In the interim, the Pentagon plans to rely on a glider that should be able to deliver 450 kilograms of munitions to a distance of 4,800 kilometres at hypersonic speeds. The glider, which the military wants in its arsenal by about 2010, will be propelled to its target by a low-cost launch vehicle that should also be able to deliver satellites into orbit.

According to defence officials, project FALCON was spurred by lessons learned during the conflicts in Bosnia, Afghanistan and Iraq when the United States had to engage in lengthy, costly and tortuous negotiations with foreign nations about bases and overflight rights. The conflicts “underscored both the capabilities and limitations of United States air forces in terms of placing ordnance on military targets.

The US quest for hypersonic technology goes back to the long-forgotten Copper Canyon project launched by President Ronald Reagan in 1982. It called for building an aerospace plane that would fly at 25 times the speed of sound, covering the distance between Washington and Tokyo in less than two hours by flying part of the trip in low orbit. The aircraft was supposed to use a so-called air-breathing ramjet engine, where thrust is created by water vapour ejected as a result of burning a mix of liquid hydrogen and compressed hot air sucked in from outside into the combustion chamber.

Technical problems and cost overruns eventually forced the US government to put the ambitious plan on the back burner. But recent advances in propulsion technology and the availability of new materials have prompted the United States to have another look at the old designs.

50 Secret US Biological And Chemical Weapons’ Tests Disclosed
As the US Defence Department disclosed, the US military conducted 50 highly classified tests of biological and chemical agents in the 1960s and 1970s to find out how they would act in different environments and weather conditions. The announcement capped a nearly three-year investigation into so-called “Project 112” and its outgrowth, “Project SHAD,” which were carried out over land and sea in various parts of the world – from the Marshall Islands to Panama, Canada and Britain – and involved as many as 5,842 US troops.

Black Empowerment Policy In South Africa
The South African government has drafted a Broad-based Economic Empowerment, also known as the Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policy to change ownership patterns in the economy – where three quarters of equity is still largely in white hands. It took the policy to parliament last week, where lawmakers invited a range of interest groups to comment.

Empowerment is not new, but began circa 1994, when the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company became the first major corporate to sell to black shareholders. But the process has stuttered along slowly with annual ownership surveys revealing that change was too slow – now government has turned to legislation.

However, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), the largest trade union federation, fired a broadside, complaining that the draft law would benefit a small elite. On the other hand, Lionel October, the steward of the policy and a Deputy Director-General in the Trade and Industry Department said there is a lot in the policy for workers. There would be bigger buy-in from labour as the model is broad-based and provides support for employee share ownership, co-ops and union ownership. Skills and human resource development are central and they get equal weighting to ownership.

The mooted empowerment law sets out the three areas for transfer of wealth as equity, financing and training. The purpose is both to build a black corporate class, but also to ensure that affirmative action in workplaces is accelerated and that the unemployed – largely black, young and female – are trained and accommodated in the formal sector.

In the era of the struggle against apartheid, a common cry was “Amandla, Awethu” which meant power to the people. Now the era is one of real power to the people, though opponents worry that it may be too small a portion of the population. Nonetheless, before indulging into petty debate all the aspects of policy should be judged.

Europe-US Poor Ties
Though EU and the US did their level best to put a brave face on their differences, but the truth is that some of their thorniest disputes still refuse to go away. During the EU and US meeting last month George Bush kept diplomatically to the script, announcing that he had enjoyed a “great meeting, constructive discussions and a nice lunch” with the EU team. Confusingly, that team consisted of three different people: Costas Simitis, the Greek prime minister and holder of the EU’s rotating presidency, Romano Prodi, the Italian president of the European Commission, and Javier Solana, the Union’s Spanish foreign policy chief.

Niceties apart, everyone privately admits that though the war is over, EU-US relations are still in very poor shape. So in public, both sides made an extra special effort, filling the summer air in Brussels and Washington with the sound of fences being busily mended.

The Europeans bent over backwards to please. Just a few days earlier, their own summit in Greece published the EU’s first ever security doctrine. That was an attempt to get their act together and underline concerns about weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, Washington’s post-September 11, 2001 preoccupations. The Europeans also sent a tough message to Iran – which is anxious to advance its trade and political relations with the union – that it must comply with international demands for more intrusive inspections of its nuclear installations.

Europe’s efforts go a long way to meeting US concerns. But they also underline the importance of approaching the world’s problems multilaterally – exactly what the Americans are accused of failing to do – whether the issue is regime change in Baghdad, Tehran or Pyongyang, the Kyoto global warming treaty or the new international criminal court.

So it was smart of the EU to sign up to agreements that demonstrate the value of such cooperation, on extradition for example – with a guarantee that terrorist suspects would not face the death penalty in the US, and on other legal and security issues.

But here too there are limits, as shown by the EU’s divided response to Washington’s call to outlaw the Palestinian group Hamas. Europe argues that alongside suicide bombings, the organisation also does legitimate political and charitable work.

Nor can other long-running rows be easily sidestepped or resolved. On the eve of the summit, and with impeccable timing, President Bush himself attacked the EU’s five-year moratorium on genetically modified foods. He blamed the EU position, which is reportedly costing US farmers hundreds of millions of dollars in lost export revenues, for contributing to famine in Africa.

Trade disputes refuse to go away either. Washington watched closely later in the week, when the EU agreed long-awaited plans to reform the subsidy-rich, common agricultural policy. A shake up of the $43 billion a year policy is a vital precursor to progress being made at September’s world trade liberalisation talks in Mexico.

Initial reactions suggested that the Americans, like many others, were not hugely impressed, and with US food subsidies running at 20% and Europe’s at 35%, there is clearly room for more movement from the old continent.

Both sides seem permanently poised on the edge of a big bust-up. Last month, the EU won World Trade Organisation authority to issue $4 billion of trade sanctions in response to a dispute over US tax subsidies to exporters. Then the EU referred the US back to the WTO over anti-dumping duties. And there are large-scale disputes looming over US steel tariffs.

Yet, however rocky transatlantic relations may be, there is a sense that the sheer scale of what is at stake will prevent political and economic tensions from getting too dangerously out of hand.

Palestinian Groups Declare Ceasefire: Israel Begins Pullout
Israel began a troop pullback in Gaza and three leading Palestinian militant groups declared a three-month suspension of attacks on Israelis in breakthroughs for a US-backed peace plan. Israeli armour rumbled out of the northern Gaza town of Beit Hanoun towards the Israeli border as part of a withdrawal from areas reoccupied in the Gaza Strip during a 33-month-old Palestinian uprising for statehood.

US presidential adviser Condoleeza Rice met both sides on the peace plan as Washington welcomed the truce by Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Palestinian President Yasser Arafat’s Fatah faction, including its al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades military wing.

Israel dismissed the ceasefire, which carried a long list of conditions, as a “ticking bomb”. A truce would give the groups time to restrengthen. But Israel’s attacks on militants seemed likely to be curtailed under the Gaza Strip pullback deal with the Palestinian Authority, a major step towards putting the peace “road map” into motion.

Israel said it would start withdrawing forces from occupied areas of northern Gaza in return for Palestinian police assuming security control and preventing militant attacks on Israelis. For the first time in two years, Palestinian security officers toured the Gaza Strip with their Israeli counterparts to prepare the pullback.

The truce was conditional on a “total cessation of all forms of Zionist aggression”, including Israeli military incursions, closures around Palestinian cities, a siege around Arafat’s presidential compound and “assassinations”. “If this does not stop, it will be considered a violation of this truce...and then we will respond to Zionist aggression by all means available to us,” said Abdel-Aziz al-Rantissi, a Hamas leader wounded in an Israeli assassination attempt on June 10. The radical Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine has not signed up to the ceasefire. Despite Israel’s dismissal of the truce, security sources said it would cease lightning incursions and dismantle military checkpoints in Gaza, which have paralysed Palestinian life.

Bush Claims Over Iraq’s WMDs Challenged
The administration of President GW Bush is finding itself increasingly beleaguered by growing charges by retired intelligence and Foreign Service officers that administration hawks exaggerated the threat posed by Iraq in order to press Washington into war. The White House was forced to admit that Bush’s assertion during his State of the Union address in late January regarding Saddam’s alleged attempts to buy uranium in Africa for a supposed nuclear arms programme was based on flawed intelligence and should have been omitted from the speech. But a growing number of lawmakers and independent analysts are suggesting that the uranium report – which was based on forged documents provided by an Italian intelligence agency – may be just the tip of the iceberg of an effort by neo-conservative and right-wing hawks centred primarily in the Pentagon and around Vice President Dick Cheney to skew the intelligence to make their case for war. According to the report, contrary to the repeated assertion by Bush and other top officials, Iraq posed no major military threat to the US. The administration’s public statements about Iraq’s biological and chemical weapons capabilities, stockpile of Scud missiles, and ties to Al Qaida were also misleading and often based on distortions of what the intelligence community itself was saying.

These charges and the growing attention being paid to them come on the heels of similar charges by another retired foreign service officer, Ambassador Joseph Wilson, who had been sent by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to Niger to check out the reports of Iraq’s purchase of uranium “yellowcake”. In a television interview, Wilson, who was Washington’s highest-ranking diplomat in Baghdad during the first Gulf War, said he was stunned when Bush referred to it in his State of the Union address and concluded that its inclusion in the speech was part of a broader effort to influence public opinion. “It really comes down to the administration misrepresenting the facts on an issue that was a fundamental justification for going to war,” he told the Washington Post. “It begs the question, what else are they lying about?”

These questions – which have been echoed by other retired intelligence officers, such as the CIA’s former top counter-terrorism analyst, Vincent Cannistraro – are clearly beginning to worry the administration, particularly because of growing doubts as well about the duration and dangers posed by the US occupation of Iraq.

In a surprising statement that has stunned the US capital, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said on July 7 that President George W. Bush made a mistake when he said in his State of the Union address that Iraq had tried to buy uranium from the African nation. The president’s statement, he said, was based on forged documents from Niger. “The president’s statement was based on the predicate of the yellow cake uranium from Niger,” Mr Fleischer told reporters. “So given the fact that the report on the yellow cake did not turn out to be accurate, that is reflective of the president’s broader statement.”

United Nations inspectors had already dismissed as forgeries documents backing the claim released during the run-up to the Iraq war. Further, a former US ambassador who investigated the allegations in 2002 also reported to the Central Intelligence Agency that it was false.

Director CIA George Tenet has accepted responsibility for the faux pas, saying that CIA should have been careful about their suspicions and not allowed mention of the uranium in the Bush speech that claimed Iraq was having WMDs. According to a statement released July 10 evening, George Tenet acknowledged that the CIA had approved President

Bush’s State of the Union speech. Iran Agrees To Work With IAEA On New Inspections
UN atomic energy chief Mohamed El Baradei ended talks in Tehran with an agreement from Tehran to work with his agency to study the prospect of allowing tougher inspections of its nuclear programme. Though a timeframe for signing the protocol has not been discussed, it was agreed that a team of experts would come to Iran to discuss the areas that Iran needs clarification on.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) held a day of talks aimed at convincing Iran to allow rigorous inspections by signing, ratifying and implementing an additional protocol to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This would grant his teams the power to make surprise visits to suspect facilities in Iran. At present, the Islamic republic is only obliged to accept pre-arranged visits to sites it chooses to declare. “Confidence takes time to build,” El Baradei said after what he classed as “open, direct and constructive” talks with President Mohammad Khatami, Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi and Iran’s atomic chief Gholam-Reza Aghazadeh.

Iran denies US accusations that it is using an atomic energy programme as a cover for nuclear weapons development.

Crisis Over North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons
There was an exchange of fire between North and South Korean armies along the heavily armed demilitarized zone as tensions simmer following Pyongyang’s announcement last November of its nuclear ambitions. A joint statement released after the conclusion of the inter-Korean cabinet-level talks last week pledged to end the deepening nuclear crisis through an appropriate dialogue format peacefully but North and South Korea failed to agree on multilateral talks to resolve a crisis over Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons drive.
China has said that the North Korean nuclear standoff was at a “critical moment” and urged Pyongyang and Washington to revert to the 1994 Agreed Framework as a way out of the festering crisis. Under the Agreed Framework deal, the United States with its allies agreed to supply North Korea with 500,000 tons of fuel oil annually and two light water nuclear reactors if Pyongyang shut down its heavy water nuclear reactor and scrapped efforts to build a nuclear bomb.

Although the two light water reactors were scheduled to be built this year, construction on the plant has not started, prompting North Korea to announce to the US last November that it was restarting its nuclear weapons programme. Since then it has fired up its heavy water nuclear plant, which can produce weapons grade plutonium, pulled out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and kicked International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors out of the country. Pyongyang also announced that a group of 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods, sealed by the IAEA in 1994, have been opened and have undergone reprocessing, ostensibly to produce plutonium.

Pyongyang has maintained the position that the nuclear programme is to ward off any attempt by the Bush administration to seek regime change in North Korea as was done in Iraq.

Meanwhile in Washington, a senior US official said North Korea appears willing to take part in new three-way nuclear crisis talks with China and the United States in Beijing, which could be expanded to include Japan and South Korea. As Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo travelled to Washington to brief policymakers on his recent visit to Pyongyang, details began to emerge on the format for a new dialogue on the issue.

One very fundamental disagreement over the issue is that the United States has always insisted on a multilateral format for the talks, keen to include its Japanese and South Korean allies in the process while North Korea has consistently demanded one-on-one talks with Washington, which officials in Washington have declined as they are anxious not to “reward” the Stalinist state for, as they see it, precipitating the crisis. It is not yet clear if the United States will grant Pyongyang a one-on-one meeting, within the multilateral format, as an inducement for the Stalinist state to take part in the talks. Hardliners in the Bush Administration say that the international community was in a “race against time” with North Korea, faulted the administration for prolonged division and paralysis on the issue and urged the formation of “an effective policy as soon as possible.”
President George Bush continues to advocate a diplomatic solution, but increasingly worried critics say he has never made a serious effort to engage and test Pyongyang in negotiations. Nonetheless, Bush has insisted a US “bold approach” awaits the North Korea. That would only happen once Pyongyang jettisons its nuclear ambitions.

A New Phenomenon Of Tackling Failed States
During a London conference, British Prime Minister Tony Blair pressed centre-left world leaders to acknowledge a responsibility to deal with so-called failing states.

The document that was published in a newspaper, Independent, suggested the British document circulated among the 14 heads of state or government attending the London conference on “progressive governance” was in effect an appeal for a new world order. It would give Western powers the authority to attack any sovereign country whose ruler is judged to be inflicting unnecessary suffering on his own people.

The British document reportedly contains the paragraph: “When a population is suffering serious harm, as a result of internal war, insurgency, repression or state failure, and the state in question is unwilling or unable to halt or avert it, the principle of non-intervention yields to the international responsibility to protect.”

The paper claimed that the document has provoked a fierce row between Blair and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who was attending the London Conference and who staunchly opposed the Iraq war in the absence of a UN resolution authorizing force. But a Downing Street spokesman denied a row, saying: “At no stage has there been any disagreement between the UK and Germany.”

The new moral doctrine for interventionism could be a way of reflecting mounting criticism on Blair over the Iraq war, critics allege. The British leader has seen his support among voters plummet in recent weeks as the government was accused of embellishing its case for war, and most recently his former cabinet member Clare Short urged him to step down. One of Britain’s main arguments for war – the threat posed by Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction – has been hard hit by the fact that three months past the war none has yet been found.

UN Shifts Focus To Turmoil In Africa
Focusing its attention on one of the world’s most politically troubled continents, the United Nations has decided to downsize its peacekeeping operations in Sierra Leone, upgrade its mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and push for the creation of a new UN intervention force in Liberia. All three developments are taking place simultaneously, underlying the heavy emphasis on a continent which is experiencing 10 different inter-state and intra-state conflicts, including those in Burundi, Liberia, DRC, Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau and Zimbabwe.

After a visit to the White House UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan told reporters that he expects about 1,000 to 1,500 troops from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), including contingents from Nigeria and Ghana, to form a regional peacekeeping force to end the civil war in Liberia.

The Secretary-General has described the situation in Liberia as “deplorable”, with a million people trapped in Monrovia, and with 80 percent of the country inaccessible. Liberia’s humanitarian needs are “very serious”, Annan said, adding that the country is also facing serious human rights abuses. He also said that with the arrival of a vanguard ECOWAS force, Taylor has promised to leave Liberia. And then the force will be strengthened, hopefully, with US participation, and additional troops from the West African region.

Eventually, UN blue helmets will be sent to stabilize the situation, along the lines of the UN peacekeeping mission in Sierra Leone. “Once the situation is calmer and stabilized, the US would leave and UN peacekeepers would carry on,” Annan said.
After a closed-door meeting on Monday, Ambassador Inocencio Arias of Spain, president of the 15-member Security Council, told reporters that the Council had agreed to “respond quickly” to Annan’s proposal last week for a reduction of the UN Mission in Sierra Leone (UNAMSIL). The 13,000-strong UNAMSIL, currently the largest single UN peacekeeping force, is to be gradually phased out, with a view to a complete shutdown by December next year. Annan has said that if the security situation continues to improve in Sierra Leone, UNAMSIL will close shop as early as June next year. The peacekeeping force in Sierra Leone has cost the United Nations over $500 million annually.

After a five-year civil war that killed more than 10,000 people and displaced several hundred thousand, a democratically elected government under President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah signed a peace treaty with the rebel group Revolutionary United Front (RUF) in November 1996. In May 1997, however, Kabbah was ousted in a military coup, but was restored to power in March 1998 with the help of a regional African peacekeeping force, the Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group (ECOMOG), led by neighbouring Nigeria. Although Kabbah regained office after a 10-month-long exile, the remnants of the RUF continued their fight despite the peace treaty. The United Nations decided to send a peacekeeping force in October 1999 to stabilize the Kabbah government.

Meanwhile, the UN Mission in DRC (MONUC) has been trying to monitor a ceasefire since November 1999. But the situation has taken a turn for the worse with ethnic clashes of genocidal proportions breaking out in the town of Bunia. Annan has proposed that the 4,500-strong MONUC be upgraded to a 10,800-strong force: more than doubling the present military strength. “I think we are making progress on the Congo peacekeeping force. Last month the Security Council approved a 1,400-strong rapid deployment force specifically to contain the ethnic conflict in DRC. The force, led by a 1,000 French troops, is mandated to complete its peacekeeping mission by September this year.

In a 10-page briefing paper titled ‘The Regional Crisis and Human Rights Abuses in West Africa,’ the New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) said that the Security Council should hold governments in West Africa accountable for their support of abusive regimes and rebel groups. “Just a month ago, Cote d’Ivoire was the big concern. Today, it’s Liberia, this downward spiral in the region must be stopped.”

Armament
Iran has conducted a final test of its Shahab-3 ballistic missile which has a range of 1,300 kilometres and can reportedly carry a warhead weighing up to 1,000 kilograms.

Special Emphasis On Terrorism

USA
Of the Americans who have acknowledged their Tablighi Jamaat connections, Lyman Faris who admitted plotting to blow up the Brooklyn Bridge told prosecutors that he had posed as a Tablighi Jamaat member when in Pakistan to obtain air tickets for six al-Qaida members. Another, Jeffrey Battle who is being tried for terrorism, had visited Bangladesh to search for Jamat members who could help him contact the Taliban. The Tablighi Jamaat’s leadership in the USA has denied the FBI’s allegations as “a very great accusation, a total lie”.

Europe
Shadi Mohammad Mustafa Abdellah, member of the al-Tauhid group, arrested in April last year and now on trial in Dusseldorf, Germany charged with belonging to a terrorist group and forging passports, surprised prosecutors by testifying that he and other members of al-Tauhid had plotted attacks against Jews and Israeli interests in Germany. He however denied that his group had any links with the al-Qaida.

On July 17 four persons died and eighteen were injured as a result of a bomb blast that took place near a police station in Khasavyurt, Dagestan (Russia). The victims included two policemen. According to police, the bomb used in the attack was similar to the bombs used in other recent attacks by Chechens.

Middle East
Turkey Nasser al-Dandani, whose mother had appealed to him to surrender to the authorities, was killed by Saudi police on July 3. Dandani wanted for his involvement in the May 2003 Riyadh bomb attacks.
In Morocco Yussef Fikri and nine others received death sentences July 11 by a Casablanca court for their roles in the May 16, 2003 suicide attack in Casablanca that left over forty dead. All ten are said to be members of a radical Islamic group.

In a new development, a Dubai TV station broadcast a tape which they received from a group called the Armed Islamic Movement for al-Qaida. The group has claimed responsibility for the recent attacks on US forces in Iraq and warned of more such attacks that would result in the “end of America”. There is however no certainty that the tape was indeed the work of al-Qaida or any group linked to the al-Qaida.

Five people were arrested in Lebanon and charged with plotting to attack Western interests. Authorities do not know yet whether the five have any ties to the al-Qaida or any other militant group.

A bomb exploded at the parliament building in Indonesia on July 14 causing damage but no casualties.

Africa
To enhance the country’s anti-terrorism fighting capabilities, Kenya will receive a US$ 100 million grant from the USA.

South Asia/SAARC
Ali al-Jazeeri, the Algerian who was arrested in Peshawar city on June 18 was handed over US officials on July 13 by Pakistani authorities. Al-Jazeeri is said to be an important member of the al-Qaida. Taken to the US base at Bagram in Afghanistan, US officials hope al-Jazeeri will provide vital information on al-Qaida’s activities.

The bodies of the two bombers who died while carrying out the July 4 attack in Quetta, Pakistan have been identified as members of the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). In a separate development, the BBC reporter in Quetta received a videotape and letter in which the LeJ has taken credit for the July 4 attack, which killed over 50 people as well as the June 8 attack which killed twelve trainee policemen in Quetta.

The Maoist Communist Centre (MCC) claimed responsibility for the July 15 blasts that derailed three trains in the Indian eastern state of Bihar.

East Asia/South East Asia
The July 14 jailbreak in the Philippines, during which a member of the Indonesian Jemaah Islamiah (JI) and two members of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) escaped, has raised concerns of fresh bomb attacks in Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia forcing the authorities to raise the security alert. According to reports, Fathur Rohman Al-Ghozi, an explosives expert belong to the JI and two members of the ASG walked out of their cells with the help of a janitor (a former ASG member) in a pre-dawn escape that possibly had police help because the policeman on duty were sleeping. The jailbreak was not found out for five hours and the Philippine President was not informed about this for ten hours. Al-Ghozi had been jailed for 17 years for possession of explosives used in the December 2000 bomb attacks in Manila killing twenty-two people and injuring over a hundred. Authorities in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are on the alert because of the possibility that al-Ghozi may try to enter these countries. The Philippines government has announced a US$ 150,000 reward for help in recapturing al-Ghozi and the two ASG members.

The Philippines government announced to sign a ceasefire agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the largest Muslim separatist group in the country.

-Regional -

India-Pakistan Relations
Diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan were re-established with taking charges of High Commissioners of the two countries and the resumption of bus service between the two countries. Mr. Aziz Khan, Pakistan’s HC called for an early decision to rescind India’s decision to cut the embassy staff by half following an attack on its parliament on December 13, 2001. Pakistan had responded by cutting Indian staff strength in Islamabad to about 50. Mr. Khan said although Pakistan favoured an early resumption of talks on all important issues with India, it would go along with India’s preference for a step-by-step approach to resolve differences. However, he expressed the desire that the travel links and the restoration of diplomatic staff should be assigned a fast track. He said the two countries should agree to guarantees against any future suspension of overflight facilities against the other. This condition was objected to by India.
In another step towards normalization of relations with India, Pakistan formally conveyed its acceptance of a proposal by New Delhi to host expert-level talks between the Civil Aviation Authorities of Pakistan and India to consider all aspects for resumption of air links between the two countries. India had suggested to Pakistan an early convening of technical-level talks for restoring air-links after conclusion of talks on resumption of bi-weekly New Delhi-Lahore bus service last month.

India’s unilateral decision to snap bus, air and rail links with Pakistan after an armed attack on its Parliament in December 2001, that New Delhi claimed was sponsored by Islamabad, a claim strongly rejected by Pakistan, has caused huge revenue losses to both the countries that run into millions of rupees. India had unilaterally snapped air links previously in 1971 but Pakistan decided against retaliatory measure and instead lodged a complaint with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Reportedly the ICAO passed a judgment against India that it was in violation of International Aviation regulations. This time round Pakistan has exercised a tit-for-tat measure.

Pakistan is following a pragmatic approach that before restoration of air link, there must be a guarantee that India will not unilaterally suspend the link in future. The aforementioned negotiation will mainly focus on this point.

In a separate move, India’s External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha said that New Delhi was keen and determined to make more progress to normalize relations with Islamabad while saying that the solution of Kashmir is exactly what they were aiming at. To a query about the “give-and-take” formula, which Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani had talked about in the context of the India-Pakistan relations, Mr. Sinha said he would not like to “define it at this stage.”

Referring to the concept of composite dialogue between the two countries, the minister said that India would not go back on Simla or Lahore; it would not like either country to go back on the issue of composite dialogue, and composite dialogue includes discussion on J&K. He maintained that it was not a core issue between India and Pakistan as is the latter’s view. He added that Pakistan could not unilaterally say that J&K was a core issue and then try to hold India to that. Mr. Sinha said there was no defined “core issue” between New Delhi and Islamabad.

With this kind of an approach where one party is not willing to respect the position of the other, one can hardly expect any real improvement in relations between the two countries.

New Delhi’s Proposal Of South Asian Trade Union
At a business conference attended by Indians and more than 100 Pakistanis last month, India’s FM Yashwant Sinha suggested forming a South Asian union to promote economic and political cooperation. He said that India is ready to start discussion on this (union) from tomorrow, if other countries are also ready for this. Sinha has made similar offers before of a South Asian union aiming at free trade and easier travel and closer political cooperation between India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives. Pakistani delegates said, that they would first like to see the Indian government ease visa rules and restore transport and air services.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s goodwill Visit To India
Maulana Fazlur Rehman, leader of his own faction of the Jamaat-e-Ulema-Islam (JUI-F), led a parliamentary goodwill delegation on a week-long visit to India on an invitation by the Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind. The purpose of the visit was to meet Indian parliamentarians, politicians, government officials, religious leaders to create an environment conducive to amicable resolution of various issues between Pakistan and India. However, Maulana sahib made it clear that this was not an officially sponsored visit and he was not carrying any official message.

Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations
The present tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan is believed to have been created by the Afghan government itself as the protest rallies and the mob attack on the Pakistan embassy was led by leading government officials. This was an orchestrated event. The tension could have been triggered by unsubstantiated allegations by Afghan officials in the lower tiers of command that Pakistani troops had intruded into Afghan territory. This was denied by Islamabad, but then the matter was allowed to drift. Tensions were further heightened when President Karzai voiced his regrets at remarks attributed to General Musharraf about the need of extending the writ of the Kabul administration beyond the capital and rectification of the ethnic imbalance in power. This suggestion was clearly intended to strengthen the Afghan President’s authority, but was viewed differently. Karzai’s rather uncalled for reaction was picked up by Afghan media and was followed by a vitriolic anti-Pakistan demonstration. With the public in this kind of a mood a more serious incident was imminent. The mob came well-armed with truckloads of stones, sticks and weapons and was allowed freedom by the Afghan authorities. In fact, reports indicate that the Afghan policemen posted at the Pakistan Embassy, also joined in the fray.

The occurrences of skirmishes between Pakistan and Afghan forces on the Pakistan-Afghan border at Mohmand Agency have now become a matter of routine and is having an adverse effect on bilateral relations. Both countries must undertake urgent efforts to engage in meaningful talks so that the situation does not escalate and further sours up an already tense situation. Terse statements emanating from the highest office in Kabul will only prove counter-productive. Both countries need each other therefore the sooner all doubts and misgivings are removed, the better it will be for all concerned.

Indian Consulates In Afghanistan
No so surprisingly, India established three Consulates in Herat, Kandahar and Jalalabad. Opening three missions in a country like Afghanistan does not make much sense; however it should not be too hard to fathom and Pakistan should be very concerned about India’s intentions. Kandahar and Jalalabad are just next door and their proximity is ideally suited as base for operations to create trouble for Pakistan by fomenting a continuous low-intensity conflict with Afghanistan, forcing Pakistan to move its forces away from the eastern borders facing India.

Afghanistan: Internal Dynamics
Afghanistan has postponed the launching of an ambitious drive to disarm 100,000 fighters until key reforms are implemented in the Defence Ministry to make it more ethnically representative and accountable. The disarmament program seen as a crucial step in establishing stability in the war ravaged country, should have begun in early July but has been postponed until the end of the month. Reportedly the President of Pakistan has suggested a security plan to President Hamid Karzai for establishing stability of Afghanistan . The plan includes joint efforts i.e. political and armed forces of Afghanistan and further deployment of forces for peace keeping in Afghanistan.

The Afghan government has opened a disarmament headquarters in Kabul to oversee the nationwide program to disarm, demobilize and reintegrate an estimated 100,000 fighters across the country.

President Hamid Karzai announced the creation of a 500 member Grand Council to approve a new Constitution for Afghanistan. The council will include 64 women.
The Afghan Defence Minister and Commander-in-Chief of the Northern Alliance, Qasim Fahim have covertly revived an old pact with India on the collection and sharing of intelligence data on Pakistan.

Speaking at a joint conference in Islamabad on July 24, Afghan Foreign Minister Ali Ahmed Jalali and his Pakistani counterpart Faisal Saleh Hayat emphasized on friendly ties between the two countries, reiterating their respective governments’ resolve of not allowing any individual or organization to operate from their soil to work against any of the two neighbours.

On the subject of the recent massacre in Quetta the Afghan minister said that India was not involved in the incident as terrorist acts and sectarian killings occurred in Pakistan before opening of Indian consulates on Afghan soil. He also alleged that growing attacks on aid workers and other terrorist acts inside Afghanistan was the handiwork of elements across the border from the Pakistan side.

The Afghan FM’s defence of India should not surprise anyone – at least the Indians must be feeling quite pleased. Allegations of attacks being launched from Pakistan soil are being made because the Pushtoon regions happen to be in close proximity to Pakistan and it becomes easier for Afghan officials to use it as a scapegoat for covering up the wrongs inflicted on Pushtoons.

India: Internal Dynamics
(Reports and data compiled from international media sources)

Offensive Against Separatists In Assam
A huge operation was undertaken on June 23 by the troopers of the 2nd Mountain Division of the Indian Army in the dense jungles around Lakhipathar to track down United Liberation Front of Assam (UFLA) fighters suspected to have established their headquarters in the area. The exact number of army personnel was not disclosed but reliable sources put the figure at “almost 1000”. This large movement of troops raised a number of questions: Is Lakhipathar back on UFLA’s map? What could be the strength of the rebels hiding in the forest? Why is the army taking such a major location-specific ‘special operation’ since normal anti-insurgency offensives have been a continuous process across the State? One of the flaws that handicap the Indian Army’s effort is its flawed intelligence apparatus. To add to their worries there is no lack of support for the rebels and people refrain from giving out information. Of course fear of retaliation from the rebels is another factor.

On one ham-handed operation in 1990 UFLA’s chief Paresh Barua and his aides escaped the Indian Army ‘clean up’ because he was at Saraipung, the rebel group’s central training camp and not at the HQ in Lakhipathar, a four-hour trekking distance away as the Indian Army believed.

The GOC of the Army IV Corps, Lt Gen Mohinder Singh, who heads the unified operational command of security forces in Assam, had put the number of rebels currently inside Lakhipathar jungles at just 30! This aptly demonstrates the sense of insecurity of Indian authorities; it is the largest operation against a mere 30 ULFA rebels, in more than a decade. With the Indian Independence Day on August 15 approaching, the counter insurgency authorities are being kept guessing.

ULFA Ignores June 30 Bhutanese Deadline
According to a July 1 media report, Indian separatist outfits that are fighting for independent homelands away from Indian yoke and operating from Bhutan have not responded to the June 30 deadline set by the Government there to vacate its territory. The United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), active in Assam and the Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO), active in parts of Assam and West Bengal, were asked by the Bhutan Government to remove their camps located in the jungles of southern Bhutan by the said deadline. The Government there, however, has reportedly said that efforts were on to resolve the matter peacefully. While speaking to a Guwahati-based journalist from the capital Thimphu on July 1, Bhutan’s Foreign Secretary, Ugyen Tshering reportedly said, “We are committed to a peaceful resolution of the problem, and have not shut our doors to anything which can ensure that. But, the response from the ULFA and NDFB rebels have been less than encouraging.” However, he added, “We want their immediate withdrawal, but we never set any deadline for the withdrawal process.”

Meanwhile, a media report on June 30 has said that the Army is continuing with the cordon around the Lakhipathar forest reserve in Tinsukia district. The report further indicated that suspected ULFA terrorists were intermittently firing from inside the forest area.

Centre Abetting Proliferation Of Insurgency In Arunachal Pradesh
The Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh, Mukut Mithi has alleged that the Union Government has not taken adequate steps to tackle terrorism in the State. Talking to a journalist in Guwahati on July 8, the CM was highly critical of the Centre. He said that the Centre (Union Government) was simply allowing the Naga rebels to move about freely in the two districts of Tirap and Changlang of Arunachal Pradesh. He said that after the ceasefire, it was agreed that cadres of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCM-IM) and other insurgent group would remain confined to their designated camps in Nagaland. However, in gross violation of the terms of the ceasefire, it was estimated that 400 to 500 Naga rebels, mostly from NSCN-IM, all armed with sophisticated weapons were present in these two districts. Tirap and Changlang districts have been in the grip of rampant extortion, killings and kidnappings. Two vice presidents of the CM party (Congress) have also been allegedly kidnapped by rebels.

There have been reports in the media that Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani had ordered an intelligence inquiry into the recent stories of the involvement of some of the Arunachal Pradesh ministers and MLAs with the NSCN. The CM has rejected this theory about an alleged politician-militant nexus saying this had only come about because the Centre had allowed rebels to operate freely in Arunachal Pradesh. He said firstly there must be a probe to find out the role of the Centre’s ‘negotiators’ and the Nagaland government with the insurgents without just ‘singling out’ Arunachal Pradesh.

Earlier on July 7, State Education Minister and government spokesman Takam Sanjoy had said that the Arunachal Pradesh government was fully geared for the Operation Hurricane and was in a commanding position. However, Sanjoy was extremely critical of the Centre which, according to him, was playing a risky game with the situation in the insurgency-infected area of the State. The State’s repeated requests for deployment of security forces in Tirap-Changlang were falling on deaf ears and there was strong evidence to believe that the Centre was helping proliferation of insurgency in the State.

Muslim Leaders Reject Babri Mosque Proposal
On July 6 Muslim leaders of the All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) on rejected proposals by a top Hindu religious leader to resolve a dispute over building a temple on land where Hindu zealots demolished Babri Mosque 11 years ago. The Hindu religious leader, Shankaracharya Saraswati had suggested that the Muslims should either donate the land where the 16th century Babri Mosque had stood to the Hindus to build a temple or else they should agree to a temple and a mosque to be built side-by-side on the disputed site. The Hindu monk also suggested that the Muslims agree to construction work for the temple to begin at undisputed sites near the site where the mosque had stood and let the matter regarding the possession of the mosque site be decided by the courts.

The proposal was outrightly rejected by Muslim leaders and reiterated their stand of accepting any court verdict on the vexed Ayodhya issue rather than any such lopsided proposal to resolve the issue. The committee had refused to even consider the proposal of Shankaracharya saying there was no question of Muslims giving up their claims on the Babri Mosque site.

Shankaracharya had said earlier in an interview on New Delhi television that there was no need for any new mosque in Ayodhya.

Hindu Hardliners Hijacking Babri Mosque Issue
With the All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) now toughening their posture, it is clear that it will be the Hindu hardliners who will set the political agenda on the issue. The AIMPLB’s rejection of the RSS appeal was on the expected lines. It had to happen. But why did the RSS take a U-turn in Kanyakumari in the first place and ask the Muslims to step aside to allow the construction of a temple at the disputed site, and hand over the mosques at Mathura and Kashi?

Firstly, the RSS did not want the accusation that it had conveniently forgotten Ram for the sake of power. Also, the Sangh Parivar realised the BJP was losing ground almost everywhere in general and the Ganga belt in particular. Finally, came the realisation that something needed to be done fast to stem the rot. Whipping up the Ram temple movement has been a tried and tested formula for them. And that is precisely why it took such a confrontationist line.

AGP Refutes Congress Charge On ULFA Links
The ruling Congress and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) continue to trade allegations on the issue of links with militants. In a statement on July 6, AGP spokesman Sarbananda Sonowal refuted the charges levelled against the AGP by Assam Pradesh Congress Committee general secretary Kirip Chaliha and termed the allegations as baseless. Sri Chaliha had alleged that several leaders of the AGP had links with the banned ULFA. Alleging that the ruling Congress has links with the ULFA, Sri Sonowal said that the people of Assam would never forget the days preceding the 2001 State Assembly elections. He pointed out that all over the state, the AGP workers were targeted by the ULFA and AGP worker Thaneswar Buragohain was killed when militants attacked the party office in Dibrugarh. AGP candidate Kumar Dipak Das lost his legs in a ULFA attack in Barpeta. At that same time, the Congress workers were able to move around freely all over the country, which proved that the Congress had some kind of understanding with the banned militant outfit.

The AGP spokesman said that instead of indulging in cheap political gimmick, the ruling party should try to initiate positive steps for permanent solution of the problem of insurgency in Assam.

Govt’s Decision-Making ‘Revealed’ Or Advani’s Embarrassing U-Turn
The Vajpayee Government’s decision not to send Indian troops to Iraq, except under an “explicit UN mandate”, has not only been widely welcomed but also sheds revealing light on the decision-making processes in New Delhi. Even at the best of times these have been ad hoc, slapdash, usually painfully slow and at times astonishingly fast, indeed precipitate. This time around the pattern has been a mixture of several of these attributes.

There have, in fact, been three distinct phases in the making of policy on the United States’ request for at least a division of the Indian Army to help the occupation forces control the volatile situation in Iraq. When the request was first received, the collective reaction of the Government was to “seize the opportunity”, rush the troops and to win the “rewards” that prompt compliance with the wishes of the sole superpower mired in difficulty would entail.

But there was a problem. How to justify a decision that was a clear negation of Parliament’s unanimous resolution “deploring” the US British invasion of Iraq and demanding immediate withdrawal of foreign forces from there? Should India be seen to be bolstering illegitimate forces of occupation? The answer of those wanting to go along with the US was that the issue should be decided in national interest in terms of cold-blooded realpolitik, and considerations of morality and high principles must not be allowed to divert attention from the essentials. The United Nations Security Council’s Resolution 1483 also came in handy to those anxious to go to the aid of the US. The world body, they said, had conferred post-facto legitimacy on the war waged by the US and Britain. Countries such as France, Russia and Germany had reversed their earlier opposition to the US. This should be enough for this country, too. Provided, of course, that issues such as the autonomy of the Indian troops operating in northern Iraq and an acceptable command structure were satisfactorily resolved.

That is when brisk consultations began both in New Delhi and Washington. Those who say that there was no American pressure for Indian military participation in “stabilising” Iraq are being economical with the truth. Accounts of the Deputy Prime Minister, L. K. Advani’s unscheduled meeting with the US President, George W. Bush, are more telling than either side has cared to admit so far. Remarkably, the pertinent questions raised by this country were not adequately answered by the American side, as became evident during the vital visit to Washington of the Foreign Secretary, Kanwal Sibal. Meanwhile, the second phase of the search to find a way to help the US had begun. Indian public opinion, strongly opposed to sending Indian soldiers to Iraq from the word go, had grown vastly more hostile to the idea for reasons for which the Americans must accept the bulk of the blame. Through their utter insensitivity towards the Iraqi people they had aroused widespread resentment and hostility across most of Iraq. That American soldiers continue to be killed in ones and twos almost everyday, even after the formation of an Iraqi interim council of sorts, speaks for itself. However, the protagonists of the doctrine “all the way with the US” did not give up. They thought that after the Prime Minister’s June 5 meeting with the Leader of the Opposition, Sonia Gandhi, there could perhaps be a meeting of minds with the Congress and this should be enough. But it turned out to be a vain hope.

Thus began the third phase of decision-making when the Government realised that it could in no way say “yes” to the US. For, it was becoming obvious that “stabilisation” of Iraq was turning into pacification. And yet New Delhi did not want to say a blunt “no” to America either. But then a wishy-washy approach could not last indefinitely. The clear-cut decision to say “no” was therefore clinched well before the formality of Monday’s meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security. In the available space only one more point can be made. During the three-month interval between the initial impulse to take the plunge and the eventual decision to stay out of the mess the US has made in Iraq, several in the higher echelons of the Government, most prominently Mr. Advani, have changed their stand 180-degrees. In Washington he had publicly declared that those back home who opposed the despatch of troops to Basra were ignorant of “all the facts”. Once back in Delhi, he became aware not only of Mr. Vajpayee’s position but also of the domestic dimension of the issue. What would happen to the BJP and its allies if the Iraqis started looking upon Indian soldiers in Iraq as an “appendage” to the American forces and shooting at them as well? And, that too, in an election year? Nothing concentrates the mind so effectively as an oncoming election.

Ample Evidence Against Advani: CBI
On July 18 the CBI told a special court in Rai Bareli that there was ample evidence to prove that all the eight accused in the Babri Mosque demolition case, including the Deputy Prime Minister, L.K. Advani, had committed offences under various sections of the IPC. Apart from Mr. Advani, the other accused are M.M. Joshi, Vinay Katiyar, Uma Bharti, V.H. Dalmia, Ashok Singhal, Sadhwi Ritambhara and Acharya Giriraj Kishore.

The CBI is pressing charges under sections 153A and 153B (spreading communal frenzy), 147 (rioting), 149 (committing a criminal act with common object) and 505 (creating ill-will among different classes at a place of worship) of the IPC.

The CBI counsel, S.S. Gandhi, who concluded his oral evidence for the prosecution, tried to substantiate charges under sections 153A, 153B and 505 of the IPC against three accused in particular – Ashok Singhal, Uma Bharti and Sadhvi Ritambhara – by quoting from the statements of various witnesses. Mr. Gandhi read from the statements of four witnesses who all said Ashok Singhal had called the mosque a ‘blot on the country which had to be wiped out’.

The CBI counsel told the court that all the eight accused were present at Ayodhya and had made provocative speeches which had resulted in an unlawful assembly which indulged in violence.

Deaths during July 2003 related to independence struggles within India:

	Civilian deaths	Indian Security Personnel	Total
Assam	26	0	26
Left Wing	55	5	60
Manipur	16	1	17
Meghalaya	4	3	7
Tripura	3	12	15
Total	114	11	125

-Domestic-

[1] Political Matters

(1) Tribunal Disqualifies MMA Lawmaker
Taking up a petition filed by the losing candidate in NA-14 (Kohat) constituency regarding the equivalency of a madrassah qualification held by MMA’s Mufti Abrar, an Election Tribunal of the Peshawar High Court disqualified the MNA on Monday, June 30 and declared the sanad (certificate) of Wafaqul Madaris as not being equivalent to a Graduation Degree. The condition of graduation had been made mandatory for contesting last year’s general elections. The tribunal also declared his seat vacant and ordered a re-election on it.

Reacting to the decision the NWFP Chief Minister Akram Khan Durrani announced that it would be challenged in the Supreme Court. He asserted that the religious degrees issued by seminaries were equal to graduation degrees; had this not been the case the Pakistan Election Commission would have debarred those holding such degrees from taking part in elections.

Meanwhile, knowledgeable sources have indicated that the legislators of the combined opposition could also resign en bloc and give a call for a general strike in case the Supreme Court unseated MMA members. An MMA source also said that the opposition parties would take a much more tougher stance on the Legal Framework Order as well.

Analysis
The decision by the Election Tribunal will have immense political implications in the country because a writ petition which seeks disqualification of more than 70 parliamentarians who were elected from the MMA platform, is now pending before the Supreme Court of Pakistan.

The military regime had decided to make graduation the minimum qualification for contesting PA, NA and Senate elections after which the Election Commission had allowed contestants to produce madrassah degrees, which were deemed equivalent to university graduation. Because of this the MMA was able to field a large number of candidates and it subsequently emerged as one of the leading parties in the National Assembly and virtually swept the NWFP Assembly.

While the unseating of the one MNA will not have any effect on the balance in the National Assembly, the decision of the Supreme Court will be critical as any possible large scale disqualifications of elected representatives, long after the elections were held, will have grave consequences on the overall political situation in the country. Many will question the intent of the government as the question of challenging the educational qualifications has been raised only after the political divisions became clearly defined. A more important question in this context is why were the election rules/clauses framed in such unambiguous or vague manner that different interpretations have been forthcoming.

(2) Opposition Withdraws No-trust Motion
On Monday, July 7 Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali offered, on the floor of the NA, resumption to the stalled talks over the Legal Framework Order (LFO) to the Opposition parties. This was accepted by the opposition who also withdrew their no-trust move against deputy speaker Sardar Mohammad Yaqub for his alleged bias in conducting proceedings during a similar move against the NA Speaker on June 28 that had ended without a vote being cast.

A total of 123 opposition members had supported the resolution against the 143 who were present on June 28 to back the one moved against the speaker. 21 opposition members spoke on the no-confidence resolution, mainly targeting the LFO and the president. The lengthy debate concluded with deputy speaker Yaqub defending his position after only two speeches in his favour from the treasury benches.

Since the PML-Q’s leader, Ch Shujaat Hussain is currently out of the country, the PM will convene a meeting of all opposition parties after his return to Pakistan.

Analysis
Contrary to expectations, the debate on July 7 remained quite orderly, in sharp contrast to what was witnessed previously; perhaps an omen of better things in the future. Now that a thaw in national politics has materialized it will be in the interest of both sides to display more flexibility and responsibility in an environment of ‘give and take’. Concessions must be made from both sides, the ‘known stances’ must be made more elastic. While no agreement has been reached on any of the contentious issues yet, nor does anyone expect a quick breakthrough on the issues, nevertheless, some positive moves made by both sides seem to indicate that they now realize that a hardening of postures on the issue would serve no purpose.

Despite the optimism on display with opposition leaders being appreciative of the PM’s offer, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, the JI chief struck a cautionary note, saying that the country could plunge into a deeper crisis if the government continued with its insistence on the LFO being part of the Constitution.

The PM’s offer of resumption of unfinished dialogue is being looked upon as a victory of sorts for the combined opposition because up until this offer, because of the ruling given by Speaker Ch. Amir Hussain, the Jamali government was insisting that the LFO had become part of the Constitution. However this is not the time to score points and all concerned should be happy that the first step has been taken in the best interests of democracy in the country. In effect the Parliament may have started functioning this memorable day.

Another positive sign emanated on July 9 when President Pervez Musharraf asked political parties to give up their opposition to the LFO and work to strengthen the country politically and militarily, saying that he was ready to show flexibility on the LFO and the proposed National Security Council.

(3) MMA-ARD Rift?
Leaders of the opposition were being contacted by the Prime Minister’s House on July 10 to confirm availability for a meeting in the days to come. Sources said that opposition leaders had been advised to keep themselves available for a meeting, which was likely to be held soon after the return of PML-Q President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain from abroad.
Meanwhile, the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD) has expressed the hope that MMA leaders will not hold talks with the government if an invitation is extended only to the MMA instead of calling all the party heads. There are apprehensions within the folds of the ARD that this could be an effort by the government to divide the opposition.

Analysis
Now that events towards a rapprochement between the government and the opposition have been set in motion, one can only wait for the outcome of the scheduled talks. However, judging from reports it would seem that there is some mistrust among leaders of the ARD towards MMA. Despite publicly stating that both have similar views, ARD apprehensions about MMA’s “underhand deal with the government” may have been spurred after the restoration of an MMA MNA’s membership by the Supreme Court at a time when the government was about to invite the opposition parties for talks.

(4) PM Calls On MMA
PM Zafarullah Jamali separately called on MMA secretary-general Maulana Fazlur Rehman, its vice-president Qazi Hussain Ahmed and PML-N’s acting president Makhdoom Javed Hashmi on July 13 to pave way for holding the promised government-opposition meeting for resumption of talks on the Legal Framework Order. After the meeting Qazi Hussain and Maulana Fazlur Rahman declined to comment on the meeting, saying they did not want to jeopardize the talks, adding that they wanted the talks to succeed.

Analysis
Speculations about a possible rift and breakup of the religious alliance were fuelled by the MMA leaders’ decision to receive the PM separately. However, the MMA dispelled these rumours saying that separate meetings were held specifically on the request of the PM and that there was no rift in the MMA.

Earlier, the Prime Minister’s meeting with the President may suggest that the President may have given acquiesce for discussions on some aspects of the LFO, specially in view of Qazi Hussain Ahmed’s earlier announcement of accepting an extension of one more year, till November 2004, on the issue of the President’s uniform. The opposition parties have maintained that all contentious issues should be placed before the parliament for discussion.

It is time that this issue is resolved as soon as possible so that the Parliament is allowed to carry on as a functioning institution. It is the responsibility of both sides to show flexibility and maturity but the onus rests on the government as it has the capacity to make concessions so it must be ready to take difficult decisions and be more generous in its approach.

In the meantime, all does not seem to be well between the ARD and MMA. Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan, President of ARD, is quite displeased at MMA’s offer to extend the deadline for divestiture of the President’s uniform by one more year. The ARD has distanced itself from the MMA’s offer saying that it considers this as Qazi Ahmad’s personal opinion and that ARD’s stance on the issue remains unchanged.

(5) Newspaper, Magazine Owners Can Establish TV, Radio Stations
The Federal Cabinet, which met on July 12, 2003 has decided to allow cross media ownership which will enable owners of newspapers and magazines to also own and operate television and radio stations. The rules of PEMRA have been amended accordingly and parameters have been set as guidelines. The Prime Minister, who chaired the Cabinet meeting, emphasized the need for diversity in media ownership without restricting owners of any medium from owning or operating another medium. The government would continue to liberalise the state-owned electronic media and encourage dissemination of all shades of view.

Analysis
While there has been some criticism to the cabinet’s move to remove the ban and allow owners of magazines and newspapers to own and operate television and radio channels, overall this will prove to be a good move as it will now allow print media owners and groups to set up satellite channels. In fact this will help establish nearly a dozen new Pakistani-owned satellite channels, as at least 10 such applications from print media parties are believed to be pending with Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (Pemra). Now a potential group of entrepreneurs who have the requisite background and experience will be able to enter this sector, which has seen a tremendous growth elsewhere in the world and in South Asia itself. The print media groups, more than any other, already have the necessary know-how, skill and talent that any TV and radio networks require. The government has paved the way for some healthy competition between the state-owned PTV and private television channels, a move which may also be productive for PTV itself.

The Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists (PFUJ) and the All Pakistan Newspaper Employees Confederation (APNEC) have expressed concern over the federal cabinet’s decision arguing that the opening of TV channels by newspapers would result in the concentration of media power in a few hands.

(6) Qazi Calls For Five-Nation Bloc To Counter US
MMA vice-president, Qazi Hussain Ahmed alleged on July 18 that the United States poses a serious threat to Islamic countries and wants to take over their oil reserves. He proposed the formation of a bloc of five important states to throw the US out of the region. In a statement, he said the proposed bloc should comprise of Pakistan, Iran, Malaysia, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. He believed that once these countries joined hands China, Russia, France and Germany, who are all opposed to US designs, would be willing to extend them their support. He said that the US wanted to disintegrate Saudi Arabia to be able to take over its oil fields which posed a threat to Pakistan and Iran.

Analysis
The formation of an Islamic bloc may look good on paper or as a theory but under the circumstances, it is far removed from reality. It is quite unfortunate, but true nevertheless, that relations between most of the Islamic countries remain far from satisfactory because of various issues that have been allowed to drag on. There have been no constructive moves to bridge the gap. In recent times the relations between Islamic countries have soured up considerably and sharp divisions have been created. Sadly the rift seems to be getting wider and an ‘every man for himself’ type of situation is now looming. In the harsh reality of today’s world, the motivating force behind every nation is its self-interest or national interest. The geography of the world has changed drastically and it is on this vital reality that countries are now having to decide on partnerships and alignments. If at all a bloc of Islamic countries can be realised, as envisaged by Qazi sahib, an effort must be made to sort out all the deep-rooted problems and differences that exist, this will be an extremely huge challenge and if one goes by history, an almost impossible one.

(7) Sectarian Activities In Mosques To Be Disallowed
Prime Minister Jamali chaired an inter-provincial meeting at the Prime Minister’s Secretariat on July 18 to review the law and order situation in the country. He expressed the government’s resolve to disallow the use of mosques and madrassas for inciting sectarian hatred. The meeting was attended by all provincial governors, chief ministers, inspector generals of police, federal interior and finance ministers and heads of civil armed forces. He directed the provincial governments to ensure use of these institutions only for the purpose they have been set up for. The PM Jamali also said that the government was determined to combat lawlessness and terrorism to ensure the writ of the government across the country.

Analysis
The use of mosques and madrassas as bases for inciting sectarian hatred has been going on for too long a time. Mosques are places of worship which offer an environment of peace and tranquillity – preaching of hatred within its walls is disrespect of the highest order and should be considered as sacrilege and madrassas are meant to impart only religious education, so both places must be off limits to those who misuse it for any other purpose. But given the magnitude of the task, the government may not find it altogether easy. The problem is more accentuated by the numerous religious sects and off-shoots that have slowly gained momentum in the country. There are shias, sunnis, barelvis, deobandis, green pugris (turband), white pugris, brown pugris, etc, etc and the sad part is that almost all have set up their own mosques. When unity among Muslims is thus broken up, and places of worship are considered personal property, it becomes an easy task to stir up sentiments against other sects.

The government’s recent moves to introduce reforms in madrassas is an indication that it is serious about tackling the issue but given the deep-rooted magnitude of the problem it will be an onerous one. The government will have to think hard to come up with a realistic strategy to control the menace because there is every chance that its moves may result in the stirring up of emotions by vested interests.

(8) PM and President Meet / Govt-Opposition Talks
On Wednesday, July 23 the Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali met President Gen Pervez Musharraf and firmed up the government stance on the LFO which would be discussed with the heads of opposition parties. It is believed that Gen Musharraf, having heard what had transpired at Mr Jamali’s meetings with various opposition leaders last week, spelled out the extent to which the premier could go in his much-awaited talks with the opposition parties’ heads. The meeting of the government-opposition parliamentary parties’ heads has been scheduled to take place on Sunday, July 27 and will be the first ruling-opposition parties’ meeting after President Musharraf announced that he was agreeable to show flexibility on the issue of his uniform provided the opposition was focused on the LFO.

Meanwhile, the recent statement of PML-Q chief Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain that the issue of uniform would not be discussed with the opposition parties continues to be viewed with some suspicion by the opposition.

Analysis
On July 5, President Musharraf had said that he was ready to show flexibility on contentious issues of the LFO in negotiations with the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal, including the issue of his uniform while sources close to the president claimed that he was willing to discuss the issue of his uniform but in a discreet manner.

Some observers feel that chances of the meeting being held on July 27 remain quite slim. With the ARD meeting on July 25 and an All Parties Conference (APC) called by the PML-N in Islamabad on July 26, the opposition will have its hand full with its own agenda during the week. Other than that, Ch Shujaat Hussain is still abroad and is expected to return home on Friday July 25.

The initial optimism that had been generated by the PM’s offer early this month to resume the broken dialogue as well as separate meetings with at least four opposition politicians seems to have wilted after a virtual snub from the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Q party leader Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain. Ch Shujaat Hussain’s remarks comes as something of a surprise - when the President himself had expressed his willingness to discuss the uniform issue, Ch Shujaat should have refrained from needlessly complicating the issue by giving contrasting statements. Anyway the damage has been done and now it may be upto the PM or Sh Rashid Ahmed to remove misgivings that Ch Shujaat seems to have sown otherwise Chaudhry sahib could end up with egg on his face.

It is imperative that the talks take off in an environment of trust and understanding between both camps. Both sides must be ready to make concessions and sticking to old stances will serve no purpose. Both sides must realize that this may well be the last chance for settling some, if not all of the contentious issues that has blocked parliament from functioning properly.

[2] Law and Order

* Unidentified terrorists opened fire on a Friday prayers congregation at the Imambargah Asna-Asharia at Mechaniki Road in Quetta on July 4. At least 45 people have been killed and over 60 injured, some of the injured are in critical condition and there are fears that the death toll may rise. The identity of the attackers could not be ascertained. It is believed that most of the dead belonged to the Hazara tribe.

According to reports, two of the three attackers entered the main hall where the Juma congregation was in progress and opened indiscriminate fire using automatic weapons for over 10 minutes. In the meanwhile, a powerful bomb exploded outside the main hall, killing the suicide bomber and many other people offering prayers. After carrying out the attack, the two assailants came out of the main hall and tried to flee and shot dead a local journalist who tried to overpower them.

Private guards of the Imambargah also opened fire on the attackers due to which one of the attackers was killed on the spot while the other received injuries. He later died in the hospital.

In the wake of the massacre angry people took to the streets and set on fire around two dozen vehicles. Many private and government buildings including the casualty ward of the Civil Hospital where the victims were taken were also attacked. The protesters moved to different areas of the city and set ablaze private and government vehicles, including two fire tenders. They smashed window-panes of shops, banks and other government and private buildings. Two banks were also set on fire. Some of the protesters also fired shots. They also tried to attack police vehicles in different areas. A section of the mob also attacked a madressah in Marriabad area and set it on fire. However, timely intervention by army personnel and other law enforcement saved the lives of around 360 students who were in the madressah. This occurrence is generally being looked upon as a suicide attack – this lends a frightening new dimension to sectarian related incidents in the country. Since all of the attackers died the police are left with no leads. This is the third event within two months involving the killing of members of the Shia community in Balochistan. In the second week of June 2003 13 police recruits belonging to the Hazara tribe were killed and seven severely injured while the next day, a DIG and three police guards were gunned down in Sibi.

The Quetta tragedy triggered violent protests in several areas in Karachi where people burnt two passenger coaches on Abul Hasan Ispahani Road and pelted stones on vehicles. The police resorted to baton charge and tear gas shelling after which the people dispersed. Tensions prevailed in other Shia dominated areas, such as Ancholi in FB Area 18 where all shops closed down as people vented their anger by burning tyres on the streets. Even on Saturday, July 5 all markets and shops in this area remained closed.
A number of suspects have been rounded up and the Interior Minister has said that vital leads have been found during investigations.

* On July 15 the BBC reported that the outlawed militant organisation Lashkar-i-Jhangvi (LJ) had sent a video tape and a letter to the BBC correspondent in Quetta claiming responsibility for last week’s bomb attack on an imambargah in Quetta in which 50 people were killed. According to the broadcast, the video-tape showed three men who claimed links with LJ and one of them delivered a ten-minute speech against the Shia sect. According to reports the faces of these three men have resemblance with those that were identified by police as the attackers of the imambargah who died in the incident. In the accompanying letter the writer has not only accepted LJ’s involvement in the Quetta carnage but also accepted responsibility for last month’s attack in which 12 police recruits were shot dead. According to the letter, the attacks were aimed at to register protest against the present government, President Gen Pervez Musharraf, Shias in Pakistan, US and Iran.

* In Okara six attackers shot dead a 39-year-old Roman Catholic priest, Father George Ibrahim on July 5 as he slept. The priest had returned from a hospital where he had gone to inquire about the health of a member of his congregation. The news of the priest’s murder spread like wildfire, prompting Christians to gather at the scene of the crime.
Ruling out terrorism and dacoity, the police attributed this to a dispute between two Christian factions who had clashed a few days ago in which some people had also been injured. However on protests by the Christians, the police included sections of terrorism and dacoity in the FIR.

* Unidentified armed men killed a religious scholar Maulana Mohammed Ishaq in Faisalabad at Samundari Road on July 8. The victim was on a motorcycle when he was fired upon at Saloniwal Jhal, he died on the spot. So far the police have no leads about the killers or the motive and investigation is going on.

* A bomb exploded on July 11 at a commercial building on Sharea Faisal in Karachi. The blast, which could have been set off by a timer-device, occurred at around 7:45 in the morning at the main entrance of Kawish Crown Plaza. A guard of a private security services company, Mohammad Hanif and another unidentified man were killed. The building, which is a commercial complex, contains many offices but because of the early hour, was largely empty at the time of the blast. The explosion damaged the main entrance and fixings besides smashing windowpanes up to four floors of the 10-storey building. The blast was so powerful that the security guard’s body was blown some 70-80 yards away. Some people were injured by broken glass and were discharged from hospital after first aid. Bomb Disposal Squad officials said that the bomb weighed five kilograms.

Investigators later identified two of the three suicide bombers as Noor Ahmed and Mohammad Khan both belonging to Mastoong district of Balochistan. The association of these men with LJ, or another groups, is yet to be established.

* Nine people were injured in a bomb blast in the Civil Hospital in Hyderabad on the morning of July 16. The bomb was wrapped in a plastic bag and hidden under a bench in a waiting shed outside the hospital’s surgical ward. According to the bomb disposal squad the device weighed 100 grams and had a timer fitted to it. The injured were attendants of the patients who had gathered under the shed due to rain. All the injured were hospitalized of which two were said to be in critical condition.

* On Thursday, July 17 a former Taliban commander Mullah Zainuddin Achakzai was gunned down by unidentified gunmen in the Pashtoonabad area near Quetta. The identity of the killers could not be known nor the motive behind the killing. The police suspect enmity as the probable cause but this has been denied by Zainuddin’s relatives who say the deceased did not have enmity with anyone.

Miscellaneous
* The Sindh Environmental Protection Agency which had taken water samples from Muslimabad, Landhi has released its findings which categorically show that domestic and industrial waste got mixed with water which was being consumed for a considerable length of time by the residents which resulted in the outbreak of water-borne disease, gastro-enteritis recently. The Report revealed that coliforms (bacterial contamination) and heavy metals, including nickel, were detected in much higher concentrations than the levels recommended. Coliforms, according to acceptable standards, should not be present in drinking water whereas it ranged between 32 to 159 coliforms per hundred millilitres, which could be described as the main factor behind stomach infections. Concentration of nickel was recorded as 5.1 to 44 parts per million (ppm) while the acceptable WHO standard is 0.02 ppm. Since last week eight deaths have been reported in the outbreak, while about 2,000 people, mostly women and children are still suffering from infections.
There are many factories in the vicinity of the affected area and the possibility of contamination due to intrusion of industrial waste cannot be ruled out; there cannot be any other reason for the high concentration of heavy metals in the water.

* Power riots broke out in the city on July 2 as the transmission and distribution system of the Karachi Electric Supply Corporation collapsed. As usual, KESC failed to restore power for more than 14 to 22 hours which forced people to come out of their homes in protest. Demonstrations were taken out in Ranchore Lines, Ramswami, Nishtar Road, Lasbela, Gulistan Colony in Lyari, Agra Taj Colony, Bihar Colony, Mirza Adam Khan Road, Nazimabad, Rizvia Society, Pak Colony, North Nazimabad, many sectors of New Karachi and Jamshed Quarters.

Enraged people blocked the roads, pelted moving vehicles with stones and set fire to old tyres and wooden boxes and when the police arrived it too was subjected to stone-throwing. The police resorted to tear gas shelling and baton charging to disperse the crowds who ran into lanes and continued pelting stones at the police.

Pak Colony (Old Golimar) was the most affected where the power supply was restored after more than 22 hours due to which people were forced to pass a sleepless night in hot and humid conditions. Most of the protesters were either children or women who were protesting against inept performance of the power utility. In some areas youths set fire to damaged cars that were parked along the roads.

The people have now become totally fed up with the gross inefficiency of KESC and having no other recourse, have taken to the streets to voice the anger and resentment. It is a good thing that so far matters have not taken an excessively violent turn.

* On the afternoon of Wednesday, July 16 a high intensity dust storm at speeds of 72 km per hour, accompanied by rains lashed Karachi. On an average Karachi received 8.43 millimetres of rainfall taking the total for the season to 3.37cm. The storm uprooted a large number of trees, electric poles and heavy signboards. At least 16 people were killed and many others injured in rain-related accidents in different parts of the city while substantial damage to public and private property was also reported from different parts. Some people died when the walls of their houses collapsed, a motorcyclist died when he was hit by a flying metal object, a woman died when a tree fell on the auto-rickshaw she was travelling in while others lost their lives due to electrocution.

Most of the major roads were submerged with water causing problems for vehicles specially motorcyclists. Gutters have overflowed in many areas making lives miserable and roads are in a shambles.

Many areas of Karachi remained without electricity all day on Thursday, July 17 more than 30 hours after the KESC network almost collapsed during the dust storm and the ensuing downpour.

Widespread rains have also created problems for the people in many other cities of Sindh, Punjab, and Balochistan.

* Allama Abbas Komaili, leader of the Jafria Alliance and also a senator of Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), has demanded the government to clamp a complete ban on all religious parties from participation in politics. He was of the view that ever since the religious parties had entered into politics, the country started facing instability and incidents of sectarian violence took shape. He termed the tragic incident of Quetta as an open challenge by extremists to the Prime Minister. He said that in the last four incidents of terrorism in Quetta dozens of persons of Millat-i-Jafria had lost their lives and if the Balochistan government had taken action on the initial incident of terrorism, Friday’s tragedy may not have occurred.

* According to diplomatic sources, the US administration is deeply concerned about steps taken by the MMA-led NWFP government, a clear reference to the Islamization campaign in the Frontier. There is a real worry that the MMA-government conflict could lead to an increase in religious fervour in Pakistan that could bring about the Talibanization of Pakistan. According to the diplomat, “The Americans cannot envision a Talibanized Pakistan.” However, Americans also realize that if the prevailing conditions lead to a political victory for the religious forces in Pakistan, there is little that they can do to stop it. That is why they want to help the country stabilize its economy. “But instead of offering them a new package of assistance every year, the Americans are urging Pakistanis to use the current package to jump start their economy, so that they do not have to depend on outside support so heavily,” said the diplomat.

Diplomatic circles in Washington agree that the Americans trust Gen Musharraf and respect him as “a worthy ally,” as one of them said. “When you talk to the Americans, you often hear that the general has come through for them every time they have asked him to do something. He has been forthcoming and helpful, often at risk to himself. There have been several attempts on his life,” the diplomat said.

They also realize that many in Pakistan find it difficult to believe that Washington is interested in building a long-term relationship with Pakistan but the fact is that only three other countries are getting more aid than Pakistan i.e. Israel, Egypt and Columbia.

* On July 23, the inspector-general of Punjab police, Masood Shah, made changes in the provincial set up as a first phase of a major reshuffle which he had promised to do in a press briefing on July 22 saying that the Chief Minister had entrusted him with all the administrative powers under the new police law. The transfers are being considered as the first administrative order of the IGP as provincial police chief under Police Order, 2002. These powers have been a bone of contention between the police and the bureaucracy since the Police Order, 2002, was introduced. Although the bureaucracy had agreed to give the IGP financial powers, it did not want to give him administrative powers.
Many senior officers have been relieved of their present duties and transferred elsewhere till further orders.

* The Meteorological Department on July 22 forecast more stormy rains throughout Pakistan. The rains are predicted to rip through Sindh, eastern parts of Balochistan and Punjab and may continue for a week.

The Met office said that so far the following rainfall has been recorded:
Karachi (118 mm), Hyderabad (93mm), Badin (116mm), Larkana (218mm), Jacobabad (78mm), Sukkur (40mm) and Nawabshah (155mm).

Current Threat Levels:
City/ Region	Threat Level
Islamabad	Level 2 **
Karachi	Level 3 ***
Lahore	Level 2 **
Punjab	Level 2 **
NWFP	Level 2 **
Peshawar	Level 2 **
Quetta	Level 3 ***
Upper Balochistan	Level 3 ***
Lower Balochistan	Level 2 **
Upper / Rural Sindh	Level 3 ***
Gilgit and Northern areas	Level 3 ***
Tribal areas, close to Afghan border	Level 3 ***

Index to Threat Level Perceptions

Threat Level 4

Threat Level 5