Security Analysis on the International, Regional and Domestic Fronts

(Combined effort of PATHFINDER GROUP Task Force)

Ms NAUSHEEN WASI, Mr Aslam Quadri, Mr GN Quadri

Executive Summary of the Month
Iraq crisis has left the world in chaos overshadowing many profound developments. The issue not only sharpened the differences between US/Allied Forces and the rest of the world (two-third majority of the UN) but differences surfaced among Europe itself that are bound to be more acute in the days to come. In Asia, the war in Iraq has left many countries shaken politically and economically. Though the fears of major terrorist attacks have not come true there has been deep anxiety about what may lie ahead. Noises emanating from the Muslim world in terms of declarations issued by the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) and Arab League as usual proved to be weak.
As regards regional conflicts, the Korean crisis has been getting close to turning into a military flashpoint as the major powers’ interests coincide here with the potential danger of use of weapons of mass destruction. The Middle East Peace process has been put on the backburner. The atrocities committed by the Israeli forces and illegal Jewish settlements in Arab lands have not been given the due coverage. The most shocking event in the month’s violent episode in the area was the cruel murder of a 23 year old US peace activist, Rachel Corrie, who was crushed to death by an Israeli army bulldozer while she was trying to prevent demolition of Palestinian houses. There exists a great possibility of another wave of violence and suicide attacks against Israelis as had happened on March 30. The regrouping of warlords in Afghanistan has been a serious threat to the Karzai regime and internal security there is best at stake. South Asia is as usual, mired in tension due to rivalry between India and Pakistan and it seems as if nothing to improve relations between the two is acceptable here.
Armament has once again been on top priority of many countries of globe and comprehensive security remains an illusive dream. The US unilateral approach has replaced many strategic notions such as “Mutual Assured Destruction” with the “Unilateral Assured Destruction” and security strategy from “Threat-Based” to “Capability-Based”. The US preemptive doctrine has also replaced “balance of power” with “balance of interests” etc. Though the world is surely moving towards multi-polarity, right now there is no match to US power. How the other powers in their respective regions translate the new version being induced by the US to ensure peace and security would be a serious threat to the small or weak states.
Internally the month witnessed the mass public reaction in terms of processions, peace rallies and marches against the US war on Iraq and many more are expected in the days ahead. President Musharraf and Jamali Government were and will continue to be under pressure over the issue of LFO and the President vacating the Chief of Army Staff post. Repercussions of Iraq war will soon be felt in terms of price hike and political agitation in the country. But there is no immediate outside threat for the country due to Iraq war as being propagated that Pakistan would be next on US hit list. The law and order situation should be the Government’s top priority as exploitative forces would be using every possibility to fulfil their interests.

Iraq War: Repercussions and Reactions
The first ever war fought on the premise of “preemptive doctrine” has left the whole world in chaos. The most significant feature of the war is division between not only the US/Allied Forces and the rest of the world but among the European countries also. Perhaps the most profound political casualty of this war is the unity of Europe that has proved to be a myth as the crisis developed over the issue of disarming Iraq and then the US decision to unilaterally go on war to Iraq. What lies ahead? is a question that causes deep anxiety around the world. German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer warned against a series of US-led “disarmament wars” against other countries in the wake of presumed victory over Iraq. US warning to Syria and Iran confirms the view expressed by many.
The importance of Iraq lies not only in its oil wealth but also because it occupies a strategic position in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. The policy-makers in the US seem to be convinced that the Middle East with its oil wealth and prevalent political culture will continue to be the centre of many strategic policies. Spread of global terrorism is one of them. Thus, it is necessary according to the US plan to bring radical changes in the socio-political environment of the whole region. Secretary of State Colin Powell’s assertion that UN would not have any role in post-Saddam Iraq clearly sends the message that US has greater designs apart from securing economic interests in the region and securing and supporting Israel. However, this is going to be very dangerous for the other countries in the region particularly Iraq’s neighbours: Turkey, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria.
Although the US war strategies have so far failed and they have been forced to change them repeatedly, keeping in view the US supremacy in advanced technology, the result of the war is obvious. Nothing can be said right now about the shape of the political restructuring in Iraq but keeping in mind the US involvement in Afghanistan one cannot show much optimism. But one thing is certain, that the military victory of the US is bound to set one of the most perilous precedents for the major regional powers in other parts of the world, who would not hesitate to follow suit in order to
fulfil their interests and meet their expansionist designs.

Turkey: US Most Difficult Ally
Situation Report
The very country that the US counted most in its military strike on Iraq turned out to be a most difficult ally as it did not come upto US expectations. At the last and crucial moment Turkey insisted on US acceptance of its demand that as “air space opens, the US also accepts Turkey’s condition to send its troops to northern Iraq.” But the US insisted that these were two separate issues and there was no need of additional Turkish troops in northern Iraq. The Kurds also did not agree with the Turkish stance. Turkey, however, dispatched its troops without US blessing to create a buffer zone turning the unsettled area into a potential powder keg and clearly sending a message that it wanted a strong voice in a post-Saddam settlement. Furthermore Turkey opened its airspace only in the final minutes before US air strikes.

Iran condemns violation of its airspace
Situation Report
Tehran, officially neutral in the US-led war, condemned what it says had been repeated violations of its airspace by coalition planes and warned that any further violation would be met with consequences. Further, it rejected US accusation that it was fighting a proxy war in Iraq and reaffirmed its neutrality.

Analysis
Iran is a country already named in the axis of evil. The US seems to agitate a situation to a point whereby it can get an easy excuse for an attack on Iran. On the other hand, Iran would do its best not to provide any excuse by making any policy statement that makes it next on US hit list. For Iran the current moments are very critical for US has shown concerns over its nuclear plant that President Khatami strongly projects is for energy purpose and has made no secret in this regard.

Saudi Arabia’s peace plan
Situation Report
Saudi Prince put forward a Peace Plan to end the war crisis which envisages a safe exit to President Saddam Hussein and immediate cession of hostilities. Earlier it was said that previously also Saudi Arabia had proposed several plans to end the deadlock over the issue of WMD yet it had always denied it. Now for the first time such a suggestion has been made public.

Analysis
No Peace Plan, howsoever excellent and plausible would be acceptable to US as apparently the war has purposes other than just disarming Iraq. This includes oil, changes in the very political environment of Middle East (some arguably suggest changes in the Middle Eastern map), not only regime change in Iraq but political structuring of its own choice and above all to show its supremacy over the world – a psychological aspect of war and perhaps the dominating one.

Arab League
meeting on Iraq
In an emergency meeting over the Iraq issue held in Cairo, the Arab League while condemning the US-UK aggression against Iraq called for immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Allied Forces from Iraq region.
Earlier month too the Arab League, in a declaration signed after its meeting held in Sharm-el-Sheikh, denounced the strike on Iraq and any threat against the security and the territorial integrity of any Arab country and stressed the need to settle the Iraqi crisis peacefully while requesting that time be given to UN Weapons Inspection team.

Analysis
Keeping in view the League’s 22-member structural weaknesses in dealing with the US, the meeting could not be said to be of profound importance. Practically speaking, all the members are trying to save their own interests and positions and are at variance with each other, this was apparent with the sharp division in Arab League. While one group headed by Egypt wanted to send strong message to Iraq to comply with US and UN demands, the other group led by Syria wanted to send strong signals to US to exercise restraint and provide UN the chance to complete its work. At present one of its members i.e. Kuwait is siding with the US and has allowed it to use two-thirds of its territory to launch attacks against Iraq. Kuwaiti Foreign Minister, Hamad Bin Jassen Al-Thani did not sign the second Declaration while maintaining that this was to appease the Arab public opinion and had no significance beyond that. On the other hand Jordan, following the US appeal to cut off diplomatic relations with Iraq, expelled five Iraqi diplomats thus becoming the first Arab country to take such measures. Not a single active voice from the Arab world is expected in future. Instead how others react to US demands and pressures would be crucial to the stability of region that has already been lost.

Role of United Nations in Iraq Crisis
UN’s inability to avert war on Iraq despite exhausted diplomacy by its Weapons Inspection team headed by Hans Blix has brought about the speculation that UN would meet the same fate as the League of Nations. Its repeated calls for sessions of Security Council only sharpened the differences among its members over the matter of Resolution 1441 as whether it authorized the attack on Iraq, the adoption of new resolution and after the war started, over other issues like the language of a resolution for resuming oil and food programme to help the Iraqi people impacted by the US-led invasion of Iraq. Arab nations, abandoned on the other hand their plan to ask the United Nations Security Council to adopt a resolution demanding an immediate withdrawal of foreign forces from Iraq since they lacked favouring votes.
UN Secretary-General Kofi Anan, in a separate message, voicing the terrifying impact of war on Iraq, grief for the dead and anguish for the living appealed to a divided Security Council to unite on a common purpose and to the international community to respond swiftly and generously to a new flash appeal for humanitarian aid for the Iraqi people. However, the future of UN has been in doldrums as Colin Powell clearly said that UN would have very limited role in post-Saddam Iraq in reconstruction of Iraq. Any UN failure would be a great setback to world security and peace environment.
Middle East Peace Process

Situation Report
Mr. Blair, in an address to his nation, said that the Allied Forces must broaden their agenda beyond Iraq and help build peace in the Middle East and across the globe.
Israel protested to Tony Blair on “worrying and outrageous comments linking the war in Iraq to a settlement of the Palestinian conflict and at the UK Foreign Minister Jack Straw’s accusation of Western double standards over the enforcement of UN resolution on Israel. Further it reflected its growing fear that Mr. Blair now exercises more influence than Ariel Sharon over White House policy on the Jewish state. US, on the other hand, affirmed that it would soon announce a road map to peace for Palestinians.

Analysis
It is significant to note that reports of the on-going violence in Palestine and on the border areas of Israel plus the atrocities being committed by Israel along with continuous illegal settlements on Arab land is not fully allowed to be made public. Instead it has been reported that only 30% of information is flowing out. The backing of Israel since its very creation and in fact even before that has been cornerstone of US and UK foreign policies. At present Israel wants to undo all of the Agreements signed so far between the Palestinian authorities and Israel to bring peace on the unfortunate territory and it continues to follow expansionist designs. Palestinians have already made a historic compromise by leaving 98% of their territory for Israel. Now in the absence of international support, inability of UN to implement its decision and capability to match Israel in terms of all aspects of power, they have resorted to taking extreme action such as “suicide attacks”. Such attacks may grow with everyday that passes and which increases their sense of deprivation and helplessness. But it does not seem that any attention or any practical steps, urgently required, would be given here as such the chances of renewed violence are extremely high.

Regional
Afghanistan
The US has intensified its military operations in Afghanistan to root out the remnants of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in which hundreds of US troops are involved. However, as it intensifies war in Iraq it would not be able to combat here effectively and that would strengthen the regrouping of tribal warlords in Afghanistan causing serious troubles to Karzai Government. Although, after more than two decades of war, the Afghan National Army (ANA) has started taking tentative steps into areas outside Government control, to build the army loyal to the State is a difficult challenge.
US ineffectiveness, rather lack of interest in reconstructing the Afghan social and economic structure is a serious blow to Karzai regime that has repeatedly asked the donors to fulfil their promises. At present the maintenance of internal security and economic order is an uphill task for Karzai without accomplishment of which the country would be source of insecurity for the whole region.

Issues Of Armament

Pak -China Relations
Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Jamali paid a three-day visit to China. Pakistan’s strategic friendship with China is a strong cornerstone of its foreign policy. On almost all the critical national, regional and international issues Pakistan holds consultation with China. This time too, in the backdrop of a critical regional situation, the numbers of agreements signed during the visit testifies to the comprehensive nature of friendship between the two. This included: an agreement to set up a friendship forum; an MoU for the construction of another nuclear power plant at Chashma; another agreement for 500 million dollars loan for development of railways and for defence, an agreement according to which China would supply four frigates to the Pakistan Navy in addition to the joint venture now underway for the production of a super bomber.
The visit was hailed all over the country and provided Pakistan much-needed support from a major power, besides strengthening already existing cordial relations.

Pakistan- India
Relations and Kashmir
Situation report
Fears that have been expressed that war in Iraq would pave the way for renewed violence in Kashmir came true with two significant incidents. First, former Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) Salar-e-Ala, Abdul Majeed Dar was killed by unidentified gunmen in the Noor Bagh area of Sopore township in North Kashmir. In the second incident 24 Kashmiri Pandits were killed at the Nandimarg village near Shopian in the Pulwama district around midnight.
According to Indian news agencies two organizations viz Save Kashmir Movement and Al Nasireen claimed responsibility for the Dar killing while Pakistan accused Indian forces for his murder. India on the other hand blamed “Pakistan sponsored terrorists” for waging violence in the State and for the murder of 24 Pandits.
Another immediate dispute between the two is over the construction of the Baglihar Hydropower Project by New Delhi on the Chenab river in the Held-Kashmir in violation of the Indus Water Treaty, 1960,

Analysis
India has been trying to portray the Kashmir freedom movement as that of terrorism sponsored by Pakistan. Particularly after 9/11 it has spared no effort to label Pakistan as the epicentre of international terrorism and has also accused Washington of double standards in leading a war against Afghanistan and Iraq to fight terrorism, while urging restraint between the nuclear neighbours. Indian Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha equated Pakistan leadership with Osam bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. India has used the same language as spoken by Bush after 9/11 and is now preparing grounds to ensure that unless the terrorist network in Pakistan is destroyed, peace in the State of Kashmir cannot be achieved. All this is a cause of grave concern for Pakistan which has exercised utmost restraint in its relations with India denying all of the charges levelled against it.
As the tensions mounted between the two countries over the incident, US and UK timely warned, despite being overstressed in Iraq war, that both the countries must immediately implement a ceasefire and take other active measures to reduce tension, including the moves within the SAARC context.
However, due to the Indian dominating position in the region and West’s economic interests in India and apprehension about the Muslim extremism/fundamentalism in Pakistan, India’s views about cross-border infiltration is more accepted and from time to time Pakistan is censured. The same is the case this time. While asking both the countries to keep restraint, spokesmen of both US and UK urged Pakistan to stop cross-border infiltration while Christina Rocca said that Pakistan was not fulfilling its commitment over the issue of infiltration.
Pakistan took strong exception to the charges and denied it. Pakistan has been continuously offering India to hold dialogue to resolve all the outstanding disputes between the two countries but so far a status quo best defines the situation.
The other countries in the region have been sidelined due to continued Pakistan-India tension. The civil war in Nepal and fragile peace in Sri Lanka require more attention and planning but the Pak-Indo issues always steal the show leaving constant suffering for people.

Local

Countrywide protests over the issue of Iraq
Situation Report
The month witnessed countrywide processions, peace rallies and marches to protest the US aggression on Iraq. These were organized by many of the political parties, NGOs, Human Rights Organizations and Peace activists including students. Besides condemning aggression against Iraq, all stressed boycott of the product of US and its allies’ MNCs.

Analysis
Many such processions and rallies will be organized in the future. The wrong signal is the attempt to portray the unfolding scenario as the West’s assault on Islam, this is not true. The issue is not of religious but of strategic economic and political interests. While condemning aggression the need is to adopt a pragmatic approach of conducting State to State relations. No State’s positions and actions are at all formulated in religious terms as is evident in history but rather on its solid strategic economic and political interests. MMA seems determined to exploit the situation on religious grounds that may cause future violence in the name of religious differences in the country particularly, in the parts where MMA enjoys majority.

Water Dispute Between the Provinces
Situation Report
The Indus River System Authority has decided to distribute irrigation water to the provinces on the basis of historic use in the upcoming Kharif season amid continuing tussle between Punjab and Sindh over the 1991 Water Accord. Following the worst ever inter-province dispute the two provinces had asked the Chief Executive Secretariat in November, 2001 to get the section 14 (b) of the 1991 Water Accord and determine whether the shortages are to be shared on accord basis or historic use basis.

Issue of Legal
Framework Order (LFO)
Issue of LFO dominated and would continue to dominate the political debate specifically in Islamabad. President Musharraf has been very firm over his stand that LFO is a system of checks and balances, which is extremely important for Pakistan. He ruled out the possibility of any changes in LFO. On the other hand the opposing parties are consistent in their demand of changes in LFO who had discussed it earlier article by article with the Government formed team without reaching any conclusion. So far they have refused to accept it as part of the Constitution.

Law And Order Situation

Current Threat Levels in the country:

City/ Region Threat Level
Islamabad Level 2 **
Karachi Level 3 ***
Lahore Level 2 **
Punjab Level 3 ***
NWFP Level 3 ***
Peshawar Level 3 ***
Quetta Level 3 ***
Upper Balochistan / Kohlu Level 3 ***
Upper / Rural Sindh Level 3 ***
Gilgit and Northern areas Level 3 ***
(Tribal areas, close to Afghan border)

Ms Nausheen Wasi is Research Officer at the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs. Her areas of interest include Changing Dynamics of Security, Issues of Regional Cooperation: Prospects for Pakistan and Central and South Asian Affairs. She has numerous research and magazine articles to her credit and has presented her views in various workshops, seminars and conferences in Pakistan and abroad.