Pakistan and a changing world
PART 2
Contributing Editor Vice Admiral (Retd) Iqbal F Quadir says Pakistan needs to adjust to a changing world.
The earlier March 2003 issue article stated that the world’s political
and economic situation was being transformed rapidly; generating challenges
and opportunities that required vision and vigour of countries wishing
to remain abreast of changes and desirous of drawing benefits from the
emerging new era. For this purpose it was necessary to identify clearly
the major changes in progress, the reasons and motivations thereof, and
the most likely economic and political outfalls of those changes; not
forgetting the effect of efforts by other countries and groups as well
as world organizations with influence; to manage, to the extent possible,
the outcome of the changes in their own favour. Further, it had to be
kept in mind that nations, countries and groups; to be able to exercise
vision and vigour, must possess institutions and administrative (political)
systems with skills that had the ability to provide necessary base as
well as inputs for the purpose of research, studies, decision-making
and for motivating people towards desired objectives that benefited the
country and people alike i.e. national interests. Those without these
institutions would be left behind. Further, the previous article had
spelled out, as some earlier ones too, that Pakistan was woefully lacking
in all these respects. So much so, that after half a century of independence
and innumerable trials at constitution making and breaking, the country
was yet to have an administrative structure that simultaneously met the
wishes and needs of the people, and the whims of powers that be. Because
of this state of affairs, almost complete people’s disenchantment
with the governing elite and governance itself, and absence of any motivation
from the top; the country was unable to harness its inherent skills,
capabilities and strength. In fact, the country seemed once again to
be heading towards another political confrontation that could only lead
to further weakening of its institutions and bonds that normally kept
people, nations or countries united and intact. A situation inimical
to national solidarity and an invitation for those seeking hegemony over
Pakistan or for mere creation of dissension, discord and chaos within
the country with a view to weaken the national power and strength that
the country’s size, geographical location and its military strength
devolved on the country. In other words a political vacuum existed that
could be dangerous not only for the country itself, but because Pakistan
lay at the vortex of so many conflicting interests for the whole region
too and even beyond by sucking in forces from outside that have their
own conflicting interests in the region.
Al Hamd o Lillah, it has been our good luck that China and United States
for their own but differing reasons have so far, in some ways, contributed
towards the continuity of unity of the country. Only God knows how long
these favourable circumstances would endure and unless in the meantime
we realized the looming perils and did something ourselves for ourselves,
difficulties and problems ahead were sure to cause unwanted outcomes?
Before coming to the present world situation and the implications of
unilateral US military invasion of Iraq, outside the purview of and in
complete disregard of United Nations, it would be necessary to have a
short preview of the immediate past, particularly as it concerned Pakistan
and which affected the country in any manner, internally or externally.
To start with, the present era of sole superpower commenced towards the
end of the last century with the demise of Russian Communism and dismemberment
of Soviet Union. Pakistan took great pride in bringing about that collapse
even though in real fact that event in due course proved contrary to
our national interests and well-being. And even today, its domestic as
well as external adverse after effects were refusing to part company
with Pakistan. With proper, fuller and sober considerations it would
have been realized that continuation of cold war rather than the demise
of Soviet Union would prove more in the interest of Pakistan, as then
she would have retained her value and need to the United States of America
in her global aims, including those of containing the spread of communism
and preventing Soviet expansionism southward. Instead, a covert desire
to pay back Soviet Union for her sordid role in the break up of the country
in 1971; when she not only provided India the military means to achieve
her despicable aim but also vetoed all ceasefire resolutions in the Security
Council, in all five times, till the Indian occupation of East Pakistan
was complete; and the need of replacing the fast ageing weapons and equipment
of Pakistan’s armed forces blinded the Establishment to the country’s
longer term interests. For any critics who might think that I am being
wiser after the event, it would be correct to respond that one must learn
from history to avoid repetition of similar mistakes in the future. Further,
that it so happens that at a Senior Officers Seminar after the Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan, I had suggested giving a chance to Moscow to
honour her tenuous offer of a more neutral government in Kabul and withdrawal
of her troops from Afghanistan before deciding on US offer of renewal
of embargoed military aid and other assistance. In my humble view Pakistan’s
objectives in Afghanistan would then have been better achieved. Furthermore
and importantly, the blind spot in Moscow’s mind against Pakistan
that she has carried ever since 1954 when our wise bureaucratic leaders
led us to a military pact against Soviet Union would then be removed.
Our situation would in that case have been far happier than it was at
present.
Ever since then and more particularly since 1958 a certain group’s
interest have always prevailed as ‘supreme national interests’ except
for a short period between 1972 and 1977 when a civilian elected government
had tried to bring about changes in consort with our friends and neighbours,
which though not in direct clash with United States’ interests
in the region, had the possibility of giving birth to a regional grouping
that in time could provide much greater independence to the composing
regional states and for them to become free of external hegemonic interests
and pressures. Such a grouping in the long run would have had four serious
implications for USA.
The first and foremost was the threat of control of oil, the lifeblood
of Western economy, passing from ARAMCO an American oil giant, into non-American
hands. The second was the likelihood of a concerted/joint nuclear energy
and reprocessing programme that could later become the base for an independent
and extensive nuclear programme including weapons. The third was the
control-cum-utilization of the newly generated but huge sums of petro-dollars,
which if invested in the region would have produced an unmanageable challenge
for USA, just as Chinese economic development was becoming at present
for Washington. Fourthly, the latent and ever present Franco–German
desire to be free of US economic, political and military hegemony had
the possibility of turning into a scientific, technical and economic
cooperation with this new MidEast grouping, which cooperation by bringing
together “Old Europe’s” science and technology and
MidEast new found financial resources, had the possibility of turning
a bi-polar world into a tri-polar reality. However, for reasons wellknown
to the peoples of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Iran; the MidEast co-authors
of this audacious plan the late King Faisal, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and
Shahinshah Pahlevi met their fait in the manner they did and the possibility
of a third, a fourth and a fifth world nuclear pole also disappeared
with them.
