Sowing the Wind

The sound of a bullet is a great equalizer, the sharp snap as it goes past is the moment of truth which separates the men from the boys. The silence of waiting had been deafening, the sound of war started with a sharp clap, this will soon build into a crescendo. As soon as the US ultimatum expired an opportunity presented itself for the targeted assassination of members of the Iraqi regime, Saddam Hussein among them, militarily speaking the actual war will go into full swing as soon as the sandstorms stop! Having delivered an ultimatum, for the US to back down would have been to lose credibility as a military superpower. One silver lining should assuage the feelings of the Muslim world, shepherd to a flock of 1.5 billion Christians, the Pope condemned the war in the strongest possible language. The French, Germans, Russians and Chinese (and millions more in the streets of the western world) had already bankrupted Samuel Huntington’s theory about “Clash among Civilizations”, our religious leaders must applaud the fact that there are no unipolar Christian and Jewish forces ganging up against Islam as was being widely apprehended in the Islamic world. Morally right or wrong will be on display once the war starts because the Iraqis will certainly use the “weapons of mass destruction” (WMD) if they have them. One thing Bush got right, Saddam Hussein is an obnoxious tyrant whose time has come. It is no use repeating all the atrocities he has visited on humanity, his monstrosity is very well documented. Shed no tears for this despicable person, his associates or his immediate family, they are fully culpable for their share of disseminating cruelty and torture on the Iraqi people. The first “opportunity” attacks were right in being Saddam-specific, instead of bombing Baghdad (and Iraqis) indiscriminately, this is the way to go!
Denis Healey, 90-year-old former British Defence Secretary and long-term Labour Party stalwart, describes the difference between present day leaders and that of 20-30 years ago, is that with personal war experience the latter had first hand knowledge of its horror and consequences. In the Army we used to say that a man who has not heard a shot being fired in anger should not be promoted past the rank of major, now they become Lt Gens like a shot! Those lacking combat experience become the biggest warriors, getting more bloodthirsty as the danger to their own person recedes with rise in rank, they have no qualms sending today’s young men to their deaths without adequate reason. Besides the loss of lives and grievous injuries there will be tremendous damage to the civic infrastructure, including drinking water. For Muslim sensibilities, this would mean another Karbela, coincidentally in the very land of Karbela (located bang on the invasion route to Baghdad). President Bush is on a fail-safe line as to the moral dimensions of waging war before the limits of peace were fully tested, in a way it is re-assuring that US military planners are choosing targets on a specific basis.
The Coalition political gameplan was using the threat of overwhelming force to get Saddam out of Baghdad, Saddam taking it as a bluff and not rolling over, the Coalition will start the air assault
(A-Day) with an attack on opportunity targets by cruise missiles, a swift and overwhelming ground attack (G-Day) from multiple directions with Baghdad as the final objective. The first gremlin in the military plan is that for lack of an agreement with Turkey a ground attack from the northern front is unlikely. An air passage (without use of airbases or refuelling facilities) will be probably voted upon positively by Turkish Parliament on Friday or Saturday. US 4th Infantry Division, afloat off the coast of Turkey, had already been diverted. A smaller US force is expected to be flown in to some of the Kurdish-controlled airstrips in Northern Iraq to marry up with equipment and along with Kurdish rebels move towards Mosul and Kirkuk before threatening Baghdad. From Kuwait in the south-east the US 3rd Infantry Division (fully mechanized) is primed to go along with the two Brigade Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF) and the British 7th Armoured Division (Desert Rats). While the US Marines will head for the port city of Basra by land and from the sea, the US 3rd Infantry along with a Task Force probably from US 1st Armoured Division (and / or the Desert Rats) will head across the desert towards Baghdad in a wide out-flanking manoeuvre, avoiding the Euphrates and Tigris till hitting the road to Baghdad far north of the major Iraqi command centre of An Nasiryah. Troops of the 101st Airborne will probably either be paradropped or helicoptered in to seize the southern oilfields.
There will probably be a paradrop/helilift of airborne troops (either 82nd or 101st Airborne) to the west of Baghdad to seize a serviceable airfield and also take out missile launching sites targeting Israel. If the Iraqis refuse to give battle in the open areas and hole up in the cities so as to give only dispersed targets to Precision-Guided Munitions (PGMs), the major problem will be fighting urban area warfare. The Coalition premise is that most Iraqi soldiers will surrender rather than fight, this theory will soon be sorely tested as will the counter-effect of hot weather and sandstorms enveloping most of the southern battle area. Coalition intelligence has given out that some forward Iraqi units have been given nerve gas, UN Chief Weapon Inspector Hans Blix doubts they will be used. If Saddam uses chemical weapons or is difficult to prise out of urban areas before the mercury really rises, then the sand-bogged allies will have no recourse but calculated use of tactical nuclear weapons (even neutron bombs) to keep their own body count from increasing.
The political fallout will be immediate, the US already has few friends left except in the upper hierarchies of the Muslim world, even that is a grudging relationship based on necessity and need rather than any long-term endearment. The Kurds will demand their pound of flesh (an independent Kurdistan), will the US risk obliging them at the cost of permanently alienating Turkey? What if the Turks move forces into Northern Iraq to pre-empt the Kurds? The Shia majority in the vicinity of Basra will demand their own autonomy/independence, will the US countenance this given that a hostile Iran will emerge relatively much stronger because of the destruction of the Iraqi military machine? What if the witch-hunting for Saddam’s associates / collaborators encourages street power to take law into their own hands and settle private vendettas a la Afghanistan? What if the streets of Muslim and Arab countries give way to mob rule?
If Saddam sets fire to his oil wells, rising oil prices will have immediate economic repercussions on all commodity and consumer prices, can these be held in check? Imminent war has swept away the uncertainty in the stock markets, resulting in a steep rise. If the war stalls share prices will fall far steeply than they have risen. For developing countries war is bad news economically, exports will dry up, import bills will rise dramatically. The economic downturn will be force-multiplied when the richer nations pass the buck of their economic misery to the less developed ones. There are widely differing calculations and scenarios about the economic consequences, this is a war we could have done without. Pakistanis should be prepared for many months of sustained economic misery. But then again, we have an economic resilience that defies conventional wisdom!
This war will sow a very fertile wind with rage and hate, the resultant volatility fed with morbid uncertainty will mean that we may well live (and die) reaping someone else’s whirlwind!