Alarm Bells for Pakistan
Mega Military Purchases & Preparations of India

Columnist Muhammad Irshad warns that India is on a super-drive to acquire state-of-the-art weapons and equipment.

Every Indian policy has two sides. One to tell the world how good India is, and second, to tell her neighbours how mean the Indians can get, if necessary. Among the neighbours, the worst of everything has to be reserved, tried and practised on Pakistan, and this by now should be very clear to the government and people of Pakistan. The forceful and unlawful annexation of Gurdaspur, Junagarh, Munabave and Kashmir has made them the landmarks of Indian treachery. The war of 1948 when Pakistan was only few months old, shall always give a chilling reminder of the swift action of Indian bad intentions, the good talk of non-interference in other’s affair and then sending forces to Dacca to cut Pakistan into two, must make every good talk of India, a hair-raising event for us. The massacre of Babri Masjid, the degradation of Sikh’s golden temple and the burning of many churches and limitless atrocities on Muslims of Kashmir and Gujarat are all milestones of secular Indian, the proud acts of a nation who wishes to be called as the greatest democracy of the world.
Thus it should be no surprise if the Indian leaders hurl threats to Pakistan, they have been doing this from pre-partition days and we did hear some very loud threats in the few days between the Indian and Pakistan’s nuclear blasts, that the Indians advocate the merits of diplomacy but refuse to talk with Pakistan on one pretext or the other must be considered a blessing, because talking must be done with the one who knows how to keep up the promises, and if Indian Prime Minister Nehru can go back after written commitment about Kashmiri plebiscite, then his followers are likely to do the same on every topic of the world. That Indians adopt threatening postures like bringing forces on Pakistan borders is also nothing new for Pakistan, they have done it many times before and the days of ‘BrassTacks’ are still fresh in our memories. That their deputy prime minister should challenge us for a fourth war must also be seen in the context of Indian mentality. I guess all those talking and posture are because the Indian leaders survive as leader on the crest of anti-Pakistan slogans only. Probably, after the days of Mahatma Gandhi the criterion of a good Indian leader is the one who raises the loudest and meanest voice against Pakistan and Muslims.
But just because India is big in size with obvious access to more resources, and has never left a stone unturned to harm us, Pakistan needs to stay alert from any possible Indian menace. That Indians have invested about 10 times more than us in the development of their nuclear assets and the missile systems should worry us, that Indians with about a dozen satellites are on our look out should be a cause of concern, and that Indians have invested since partition about 20 times more than us in their military purchases must be a point to ponder. For it must be remembered that whatever the good and peaceful talk the Indians might do, every gun, every missile and every spying activity in India is ultimately for use against Pakistan. The Indians also do not care if millions of their people sleep hungry and on the footpaths in Calcutta, Mumbai and many other cities. For them, every penny must go in anti-Pakistan activities, welfare of their own people is somewhere at the lower position... Thus we have to keep a very watchful eye on the Indian potential to hurt us, not forgetting that Indians are always on watch to find an occasion to hurt us. What boggled them down and put reins to their limitless threats was our covert nuclear potential exhibited in reply to their nuclear blasts in the month of May 1998. It was the overt and covert display of this potential that kept peace in this sub-continent since last three decades. This peace made every Indian leader frustrated because it puts limits on their favourite hobby and topic of “Pakistan Bashing”. So it should be no surprise that Indians have tried their best to seek a visible nuclear edge over Pakistan and have suddenly taken a leap forward in this regard. It is their mega military amassing and preparation which must ring alarm bells in Pakistan.
To begin with, there have been a spate of missile tests with a special focus and retesting of Akash, surface-to-air short range missile, which the Indians claim to be close to Patriot missile (providing a sort of shield to possible Pakistani missiles). The Indians also conducted testing of short range Agni missile aimed at impacting Pakistan, not just psychology but also undermining Pakistan’s declared intent of nuclear restraint.
Conducted at the same time was the visit of Indian defence minister to Moscow to sign a $3 billion arms deal with Russia. The deal includes the leasing of four long range nuclear bombers (Tu22 M3) and two nuclear capable submarines. The deal also includes a commitment by Russia to put in more money into joint Russo-Indian project to develop a new long range nuclear-capable cruise missile, the Brahmos.
The move, some feel will dramatically escalate the [India-Pakistan-China] arms race on the [South Asian] subcontinent. The massive deal will dramatically improve New Delhi’s ability to deliver its nuclear warheads to Pakistan and China. It follows months of simmering tension between India and its arch-rival Pakistan, the world’s newest declared nuclear powers [in South Asia]. The two countries almost went to war in June last year, and for 10 months deployed a million troops along their shared border.
On a visit to Moscow, India’s Defence Minister, George Fernandes, said the agreement — which will also see Russia throw in an ageing aircraft carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov, for free — will be finalised by the end of March [2003]. India is believed to have more nuclear bombs — between 60 and 150, compared with Pakistan’s 20-60. It also has a much larger conventional army. But defence experts believe that Pakistan’s missile technology has better means of getting them to their targets, and this is an edge which New Delhi wants to eliminate.
Under the package, India will lease four Tu22 M3 long-range aircraft — capable of dropping nuclear bombs on China — as well as two Akula class submarines, which are nuclear-propelled and can deliver nuclear warheads. India’s existing submarine fleet is not nuclear capable. Indian officials say that in the event of a nuclear attack by Pakistan, the new Russian subs, which can hide underwater for months at a time, would be able to launch a devastating response. India has also agreed to pay about 370 million UK pounds to refit the Admiral Gorshkov, a decrepit aircraft carrier which was completely gutted by fire in the early 1990s.
These Indian military accumulations must be seen in the context of two already existing dangerous scenarios. Firstly, the western winds were never in favour of Pakistan. The western world (including Americans) whose weight and influence does matter in any possible conflict are heavily loaded against Pakistan, even from the days before the creation of Pakistan. The treacheries of Lord Mountbatten must all be seen in this context. His casual remarks “If I knew he (Quaid-i-Azam) is sick and going to die within a year, we could have delayed the partition forever” speak quite clearly about the sincerity of his intentions.
Indians exploded their first nuclear blast in 1974, with the vigorous and positive aid of many western countries include America. Obviously, after the explosion, there were no sanctions, no embargoes and no threats imposed on India. London’s daily telegraph (20th May 1974) wrote about the India nuclear blast “Somehow India succeeds in maintaining a peaceful mien, even when well armed with sador to India is there to strongly endorse that “Other nations may fade in the war against terrorism, India and United States will be there at the finish, when we win”. Obviously such statement was on behest of Indian leadership. So what is it that Indians really want?
There could be various possible theories, but the one which stands more clearly is that, with the possibility of Iraqi attack by the US, the world attention is diverted, and maybe the Indians have got an understanding that America is not there to sort out the problems of India and Pakistan. So it just may be the right time for India to settle some scores with Pakistan. Thus with a feeling of a positive edge in all areas of war, the Indians will test us may be in Kashmir in very near future, may be this spring, and may be they have the notion that in case of nuclear attack, deterrence of Pakistan does not hold, or even some mad elements might have thought of much worse scenarios, all hoping that in the end India will be victorious, so why not jump in it.
I hope that does not take place, I hope sanity prevails. But I cannot advocate that we should take lightly the statement emanating from across the border. It is time that the military president and the new civilian administration rise to challenges which are unprecedented, and the problem is not going to be diminished by saying that these are hollow Indian slogans. Though Americans are trying their best to remove the spirit of Jehad from us as a nation, it is time we try to awaken that spirit in us. This time the Indians have probably done their homework in a much better way, probably they have the kind of preparations which have given them tremendous potential to do harm, and certainly the Indian slogans are based on something which is probably being ignored by us. Remember, before 1971 attack, they had the defence pact with Russia and the goodwill of America. They have both now. Remember, the great threats they gave us in the few days between the nuclear blasts of 1998, and the peace returning after we replied with tit for tat? Probably, they feel they have the right answers now. Remember, in our history, there was never an occasion when Indians could harm us and they have not harmed us. So the coming days are not going to be any exception.