Kashmir Watch

This new monthly feature by noted analyst Ms NASIM ZEHRA is based on foreign news sources, particularly Indian television and radio news services. The purpose is to provide the readers of Defence Journal an analysis-based monthly update on an unresolved dispute that continues to hold peace in South Asia hostage.

From the BOARD of EDITORIAL ADVISORS, Ms NASIM ZEHRA

Overview
To the extent that diplomacy involves ‘making the best of a bad situation’ within inter-state relations, India at present appears to have abandoned diplomacy in its relations with Pakistan. Instead it has opted for anti-Pakistan diplomatic and political offensives at home and abroad. December proved to be the high point of this offensive. The BJP’s ‘whopping home-run’ in the Gujarat elections appears to have demonstrated, many believe, that the anti-Pakistan and anti-Musharraf campaign provides BJP the winning potion. For now India’s Pakistan policy and its Kashmir policy will remain hostage to domestic politics. The compulsions of electoral victory and BJP leadership’s conclusion that all Indian states will be receptive to anti-Pakistan propaganda may keep Delhi’s verbal attack on. Meanwhile, troop withdrawal from the Pakistan-India borders have begun. The level of Indian forces deployed in Indian Occupied Kashmir remains unaltered.

Ground Situation
Search and seize operations by security forces and militant attacks continued. Death, injury and destruction caused by grenades, rockets and land-mine blasting continued. In December almost 150 people including an MP from the ruling Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) and a former state minister were killed. Unprecedented targeted killing of three girls in Rajouri took place.The state police claimed that the killings followed Lashkar-i-Tayyaba and Lashkar-i-Jabbar’s poster campaign insisting that women wear burqas. Police also prevented a suicide attack on the Jammu Civil Secretariat.
Kashmiris rejected the Delhi High Court’s verdict awarding death sentence to three Kashmiris including a professor in Delhi University. A two-day strike completely paralyzed the Valley, Sopore and Baramula. Protests included a 5,000 strong rally of men, women and children in Sopore. The Kashmir Bar Association too condemned the verdict and called POTA “Delhi’s new tool against the people.” Shabbir Shah’s Democratic Freedom Party also organized protest rallies. A new group the Islamic Student League organized a protest rally. Three thousand participated in the rally addressed by the APHC chief. Pro-Pakistan slogans were raised.
The J & K Human Rights Front Chief Ahsan Untoo and JKLF leader Javed Mir were arrested. Also on Human Rights Day a local activist, soaked in petrol was prevented by the local police from self-immolation.
Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani made a two-day trip to the State to “review the security situation.” He said Pakistan had intensified the proxy war. No dialogue, he said, with elements “controlled by Pakistan was possible. He called for dialogue with elected representatives. The Home Minister maintained that “75% foreign militants were involved in the terrorist attacks.” In July 2000 when Hizbul Mujahideen went for a ceasefire Advani had then said HUM “are our boys” and about 70% of those involved in the armed struggle were locals.
Foreigners in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir included the US Navy Chief Admiral Bargo’s three-day visit to Siachin and the US Ambassador Robert Blackwell’s 3-day trip to the State.

State Government
Chief Minister Mufti asks Prime Minister Vajpayee to start dialogue with elected MLAs. He called on the militants to surrender guns and he would continue peace efforts. In its effort to provide the promised ‘healing touch’ to the bleeding Valley, the ruling party tried to balance its relations with Delhi with its support for the alienated Kashmiris. Its Vice Chairperson Mehbooba Mufti argued in BBC’s Hard Talk that the principal problem in Kashmir was of alienation not of violence. Violence she said
followed alienation.

Indian Policy
From Delhi, the month of December has seen the postponement of the SAARC Summit, request by none other than the Indian Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha to the Western Community that Pakistan be included in the axis of evil, Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani’s assertion that Pakistan in the place of Afghanistan is now “hub of terrorism”, the Defence Minister’s assertion that the camps closed down earlier by Pakistan have been reopened again and finally the Indian PM Atal Behari Vajpayee’s declaration that no talks with Pakistan are possible unless Pakistani-supported terrorism ends. In Jammu Advani said no dialogue with those speaking the language of Pakistan was possible.
In December the Indian press carried stories on how ISI was training Kashmiri militants, of ISI assisted terrorist camps operating in Bangladesh, of ISI protecting Al-Qaida and Taliban, of how intelligence intercepts were used to prevent terrorist attacks in IHK and to foil infiltration. Indian security forces in IHK maintain that Pakistan made Surface-to-Air missile ANZA was recovered from a militant hideout.
On ground meanwhile the Indian policy of using force to tackle the political and the armed struggle continued. Political prisoners were released and
re-arrested. The most controversial verdict was given awarding death sentence to three Kashmiris in the December 13th Parliament attack case. The three Kashmiris included a professor of Arabic and Islamic studies in Delhi University. This verdict will be challenged in the higher court by the Kashmiris within a few weeks. On the diplomatic front the Indians made their case on Kashmir with the Americans and the Russians. In addition to briefing the US Ambassador to Delhi Robert Blackwell, India’s national security advisor Brajesh Misra went to Washington to build India’s case for the Bush administration exerting more pressure on Pakistan. Yet it again rejected third party mediation on Kashmir.

APHC Policy
APHC continued with its strategy combining political resistance and call for a trilateral dialogue. They said a dialogue could start with Delhi provided Pakistan’s inclusion, even if later, was assured. Dialogue between Pakistan and Srinagar-based APHC was an important first step. The APHC called upon the Chief Minister to work for a solution to Kashmir dispute within a specific time period. APHC chief Bhatt said he would ask the youth to lay down their arms if the Chief Minister would work for a resolution within a time-bound framework.
Mujahideen Approach
The HUM maintained that a trilateral dialogue necessary to find a durable solution to the J & K dispute. Tell India to accept ground realities. Vow to continue armed struggle until New Delhi concedes the Kashmiri right to self-determination. In Azad Kashmir Syed Salauddin a senior commander said that until India would not be willing to resolve the Kashmir issue in a just manner and according to the UN resolution HUM will not lay down its arms.
Significantly, Pakistan-based leadership of LET announced a four-day ceasefire over Eid. In doing so it acknowledged that it was responsible for conducting armed operations in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir.

Pakistan
While calling for unconditional dialogue on all outstanding issues including Kashmir, the President and the Prime Minister have said the status quo solution is unacceptable. Pakistan has responded to India’s war hysteria over Kashmir with some rhetoric but mostly with restraint. Pakistan continues to believe that its place at the negotiating table on the Kashmir dispute cannot be denied to it. Pakistan’s leadership maintains that the Indian demand for zero tolerance for cross-LoC infiltration is unrealistic.
During his banquet address on December 23 held in honour of the visiting Iranian President General Musharraf said that the unresolved Kashmir has poisoned Pakistan-India relations since 1947. War is no solution. Political solution through dialogue must be sought. However, India’s threat of war can be effectively dealt with. India cannot bluster its way through to a Kashmir solution. While addressing Naval officers in Karachi the President said that in the
post-December 13 period he asked a number of dignatories to convey to the Indain leadership that in case India crossed the international borders or the LoC Pakistan would be defended also through unconventional means. He elaborated that the people of Pakistan and Kashmir would rise up and “engulf” the attacking Indian forces.

International Community
Three countries figured prominently in the Jammu and Kashmir affairs; Russia, Iran and the US. Russian President Vladimir Putin during his India visit shared the Indian concern over “cross-border terrorism” calling upon Pakistan to destroy the infrastructure of terrorism. In Pakistan the visiting President Ahmad Khatami said that as a Muslim and an Iranian the conditions of the Kashmiris were unacceptable. He called for a solution to the dispute in-keeping with the aspiration of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. The Russian and Iranian positions were reflected in the Russian-Indian and the Iranian-Pakistani statement issued at the conclusion of the respective trips. Meanwhile, the US ambassador told the Chief Minister Mufti in Srinagar that he saw cross-border terrorism and economy under development as the two problems confronted by Mufti’s government. Blackwell did not meet the APHC leadership during his visit.
December Line: The State government’s efforts to provide a ‘healing touch’ to Jammu and Kashmir is caught between Delhi’s rejectionist policy and continued armed and political resistance of the Kashmiris.