Security Analysis on the International, Regional and Domestic Fronts

(Combined effort of PATHFINDER GROUP Task Force)

Executive Summary of the Month

President Bush announced the end of major combat in Iraq and warned that “any outlaw regime that threatened the civilized world would be confronted”. The six week war was termed as ‘one victory in the campaign against terrorism’. Meanwhile, European countries that had opposed the US-led war on Iraq found themselves high and dry and scrambled to curry favour with the US.  France which had attained a leadership role in the anti-war axis started to quietly signal a softening of its previous hard line approach which led to a rapprochement of sorts. The US on its part also backed away from threats to penalize France. As a senior Bush administration official said “the goal is to give them an opportunity to work with Washington but not give them a stranglehold”. As the dust settled over the Iraq war Washington prepared a major overhaul of its leadership team in Iraq following sharp criticism of the sluggish pace of reconstruction in the country. The EU Foreign Policy Chief while working for unity within Europe urged the US to deal with the Union as whole rather than “cherry-pick” individual allies because they argue with Washington.

In trying to address the crisis of unity among European countries the Greek Foreign Minister, whose country holds the current EU Presidency said that Iraq should not divide Europe and “we should draw lessons from the crisis.” Realization seems to have dawned that Europe would need to answer for itself the tough questions and new threats such as WMDs.

The later part of May saw the surfacing of the old assertions of political issues that had caused insecurity around the world. The US continued to issue warnings to Iran for its support to al-Qaida, charges that were denied by Iran. More alarming was the plan revealed by Pentagon suggesting a regime change in Iran. Although the US is the sole super power and there is no one to challenge its might, it should tread carefully.

Suicide bombers struck in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia killing 29 people including 7 US nationals. The US later said that, based on its intelligence reports, this was an Al-Qaida masterminded attack. The purpose of this attack may have been to destabilize the Saudi government and also show to the world that they can strike at will. This tragedy was followed by suicide bomb attacks in Casablanca, Morocco which killed over 40 people and left over a hundred injured.

Some changes surfaced in the international economic structure with China being invited to attend the G-8 meeting. This is clearly in recognition of China’s emerging role as a member of the international establishment. The other significant change was the loosening of grip of OPEC and its leader Saudi Arabia on world markets due to rebuilding of Iraq’s oil industry.

As regards regional conflicts, no major changes were witnessed. Although a meeting was held between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his Palestinian counterpart Mohammad Abbas on the peace plan, continued violence dealt another blow to proposed road map to peace in the Middle East which was unveiled by the US. On the Korean peninsula, the US was asked to have a compromised solution with North Korea. Relations between India and Pakistan continued to advance in a positive direction, albeit slowly.

In Sri Lanka, Tamil Tigers’ renewal of demand to have peace talks with the government was a welcome gesture. Ironically Africa has again been neglected by the world community and despite fighting erupting in Congo; the world’s focus could not be diverted from Iraq issue.

Internally, the LFO continued to pose problems for the government. The opposition parties remained fixed to their “known stance” and issued warnings of street demonstrations and protests if a solution was not found. They also threatened to block next month’s budget unless the President set out a date for quitting the military.  On May 26 clashes occurred in the Punjab Assembly between the treasury and opposition benches and ugly scenes were witnessed. Many opposition Legislators and political workers were arrested by the police in Islamabad on the next day as their entry into the Assembly building had been barred by the Speaker because of their rowdy behaviour.

Reports in newspapers indicated secret meetings between some MMA leaders and the PM, the PML(Q) Chief and the President suggesting that a “deal” was being worked out. While all concerned denied any secret agenda in these meetings, on May 30 Qazi Hussain said that MMA can give Gen Musharraf a year in uniform along with the presidency if he accepts the religious group’s demands on the LFO and recommendations of the Council of Islamic Ideology. This is a complete reversal of MMA’s earlier stance.

International

Restructuring – Plans to Carve Iraq into Three Zones

At a meeting of sixteen countries – the US, Britain, ten other NATO members and four non-members held in London entitled “Initial Coalition Stabilization Operation Conference”,  US officials revealed plans to carve Iraq into three sectors, each controlled by the coalition partners. From initial discussions it was clear that it would give transitional control to the US, Britain and Poland. The resolution excludes UN role except a limited role in humanitarian, relief and reconstruction assistance. The plan totally bypassed France, Germany, Russia and the other nations that opposed the US-led invasion of Iraq.

According to the plan a Stabilization Force would be generated by a coalition on a bilateral basis. The programme would proceed in tandem with one for cutting the US troops strength in Iraq from the current 132,000 to about 30,000 by late this year.  Washington foresaw a possible umbrella role for NATO, with a provision that in case of opposition from France, decision be shifted to the Alliance’s 18-member Defence Planning Committee, of which France is not a member.

US General Tommy Frank will remain Supreme Commander of all Allied troops there, including the Stabilization Force. Washington will thus retain control of the military phase of transition, even given the sharp reduction in its troop strength and its portion of the overall burden. The US already controls the political aspects of transition, with an American civilian Administration in place and the Constitution, under US auspices, of a future Iraqi temporary authority.

The US was busy restructuring the Iraq set-up for which several changes had been made. The US sent a former banker of the Reagan Treasury administration, Peter McPherson into Baghdad to bring about financial stability in the area. His goals were to stabilize a national currency, write a budget for government workers and pensioners and repair a banking system ravaged by looting and war. Mr. McPherson’s job as Financial Coordinator in Iraq could prove critical to rebuilding Iraq. Despite all its vast potential, the Iraqi economy remains weak and underdeveloped even by Middle Eastern standards therefore it remains poorly equipped to provide the services and opportunities that a frustrated citizenry is demanding. Furthermore the foundations of the economy have crumbled due to obvious reasons.

Another move was the dissolution of the Iraqi Armed Forces and several security agencies and sacking 400,000 staff that had formed the backbone of Saddam Hussein’s rule. Also dissolved were the Defence and Information Ministries along with Military and Security Courts.

Kurds-Arabs’ Clashes

Even as officials prepared for City Council elections, Arabs and Kurds fought in mainly Arab districts in the southern part of the city, 250 kilometres north of Baghdad. At least 10 people were killed in Kirkuk in the worst violence since the Iraq invasion. Tension between majority Arabs and the Kurds was partly driven by disputes over land or property seized under Saddam’s “Arabisation” campaign in the region. Many Kurds demand the right to return to their homes from which they were expelled under Saddam’s rule. The trigger for the latest violence was believed to be a combination of rows over resettlement and the pursuit of former Baath party members.

Sanctions lifted:

UN resolution on Iraq

A resolution, adopted by the UN Security Council by an overwhelming 14-0 vote with Syrian abstention, ended the 13-year-old sanctions on Iraq and an approval to the US and Britain to run the country with its oil riches. It gave the UN a limited but expanded role leaving open the possibility of UN weapons’ inspector returning to Iraq.

The main points of the resolution were as follows:

• The Security Council recognizes that the occupying powers have specific authorities, responsibilities and obligations under international law.

• All UN member states are to deny safe haven to members of the previous Iraqi regime responsible for crimes and atrocities, and bring them to justice.

• The authority will promote the welfare of Iraqi people and create economic conditions for them to freely determine their own political future.

• All parties are to comply fully with their obligations under international law, notably the Geneva Conventions of 1949.

• The Authority is to find people missing since the Iraq invasion and occupation of Kuwait in August 1990.

• All member states are to take appropriate steps to find and return items looted   from Iraq’s National Museum and National Library after the fall of Baghdad.

• UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan appointed a Special Advisor on Iraq. His job includes working with the Authority and the Iraqi people to facilitate a process leading to an internationally recognized, representative government.

• The Authority is to help set up a transitional administration run by Iraqis.

• All trade and financial sanctions imposed on Iraq after and since August 1990 are immediately removed except the arms embargo.

Comprehensive Plan of Action for the Middle East

The details of the US plan of action for the Middle East were revealed which aims at bringing about major social, economic and political changes in the region. The following are the highlights of the plan:

Establish a US-Middle East free trade area within a decade – building on America’s free trade agreement with Israel and Jordan.

Help reforming countries become members of the World Trade Organization.

Negotiate bilateral investment treaties and trade and investment framework agreements with governments determined to improve their trade and investment regimes.

Complete negotiations on a free trade agreement with Morocco by the end of this year.

Launch, in consultation with US Congress, new bilateral free trade agreements with governments committed to high standards and comprehensive trade liberation.

Provide assistance to build trade capacity and expansion so countries can benefit from integration into the global trading system.

Work with US partners in the region to (a) establish a Middle East finance facility to help small and medium-sized business gain access to capital and generate jobs; (b) reform commercial codes, improve the climate for trade and investment, and strengthen property rights through a new initiative for commercial law in cooperation with US and Middle Eastern law schools and jurists, and business-to-business contacts; and (c) Promote transparency in public finances, help countries fight corruption, and support financial sector reforms promoting education and knowledge.

Grow US partnership with Morocco and Yemen to expand their female literacy programmes to other interested countries.

Partnership with countries to help empower parents and local communities to give them a greater voice in how their children are educated. Expand a successful program in Alexandria, Egypt and to other interested countries in the region.

Partnership with countries to provide incentives, such as vouchers, to families that send their girls to school, building on successful programmes in Morocco and Egypt.

Establish a regional forum on judicial reform.

Establish regional campaign schools to provide training in leadership and organizational skills for women seeking elective office across the region.

Begin media training and media law projects that include participants initially from Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia.

w Provide training to new parliamentarians and support for civil society organizations.

Arab states have given a mixed reaction to the announced plan with some dismissing it as a public relations exercise while others calling it as purely cosmetic. As regards the Palestinian issue a political crisis loomed over the new Palestinian government as negotiation Minister Saeb Erkat resigned only a day before a key meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his Palestinian counterpart Mahmoud Abbas. This further jeopardized the already tattered road map for peace and tension on the ground remained high, with the Israeli army staging yet another massive operation in the northern Gaza strip.

Israel Accepts Roadmap

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon won cabinet approval for a US-backed “road map” for peace in a breakthrough that formally committed Israel for the first time to the establishment of a Palestinian State. The cabinet approval set the stage for a possible Israeli-Palestinian summit attended by US President George W. Bush, who had pushed Sharon to accept the most ambitious Middle East peace plan in more than two years. Sharon overcame opposition to the road map by far-right cabinet ministers and members of his rightist Likud party by a vote of 12-7 with four abstentions after a stormy six-hour debate.

In a separate vote of 16-1, the cabinet rejected any Palestinian right of refugee return to what is now the Jewish state, a proviso likely to be a bump on any road to peace. Despite having approved the plan in its cabinet Israel has presented 14 reservations to the US-backed “road map” to peace with the Palestinians. The United States has said that it will address Israel’s concerns as the road map is implemented, but rules out changing the plan. The Palestinians also assert that they have reservations but have approved it in its entirety to give peace a chance.

Following are the highlights of those reservations:

i. Calm will be a condition for the start and continuation of the process. The Palestinians must end violence, dismantle security organisations and form new organisations to combat violence. In the first phase, and as a condition for progress to the second phase, the Palestinians will dismantle militant groups and their infrastructure and collect all illegal weapons.

ii. Full compliance will be a condition for progress between phases of the plan and for progress within the phases. The first condition for progress will be the full cessation of violence.

iii. A new, different leadership in the Palestinian Authority must emerge through reform before the second phase. New elections must be held to the Palestinian Legislative Council.

iv. The monitoring mechanism will be under US management.

v. The nature of the provisional Palestinian state will be determined at Israeli-Palestinian talks. The provisional state will be fully demilitarised with no military forces. Israel will control all entry and exit, as well as air space.

vi. The state must make declarations on Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state and on the waiver of any right of return for Palestinian refugees to what is now the state of Israel.

vii. The end of the process will lead to the end of all claims as well as the end of the conflict.

viii. A settlement will be reached through agreement and direct negotiations in accordance with the vision outlined by President George Bush in a speech on June 24 last year.

ix. Issues that will not be discussed include Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, except a freeze on settlement expansion and illegal outposts, the status of the Palestinian Authority and its institutions in Jerusalem, and issues that will be part of a final peace agreement.

x. The removal of references to a Saudi peace initiative and an Arab initiative adopted in Beirut last year.

xi. The reform process will be promoted in the Palestinian Authority – a transitional Palestinian constitution will be drafted, a Palestinian legal infrastructure will be built, international efforts to rehabilitate the Palestinian economy will continue and transfer of tax revenues will continue.

xii. The redeployment of Israeli forces to positions they held in September 2000 before the Palestinian uprising began will depend on absolute quiet and future circumstances.

xiii. Subject to security conditions, Israel will work to restore Palestinian life to normal, promote the economy, cultivate commercial ties and assist humanitarian agencies.

xiv. Arab states will assist the process by condemning violence. No link will be established between the Palestinian track and other peace tracks.

Seen in light of the above the Middle East peace process might not prove to be smooth sailing at all.

Gen Tikriti was a

“Double Agent”

According to a report published in French weekly newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche, Gen Maher Soufiane al-Tikriti, head of Saddam Hussein’s presidential guards was a double agent working for the CIA. The report quoting sources said that “a high-level Iraqi official with close links to the former regime,” Gen Tikriti was paid several million dollars by the CIA and was sent with his family probably to the United States on April 8 on board a US C130 aircraft when the US had announced officially that Gen Tikriti had died on the day the Iraqi capital was attacked.

The newspaper reported that Gen Tikriti was persuaded by the CIA to become a double agent a year ago in London through a relative who had fled to UK in 1995 with one of Saddam’s sons-in-law, Hussein Kamel. Kamel was subsequently killed by Iraqi secret police when he attempted to return to Iraq after he divulged to the CIA “all of Iraq’s military secrets”.

The newspaper source affirmed that it was because of Gen Tikriti’s surprise defection that Saddam Hussein’s presidential guards offered no resistance at the time of the US attack on Baghdad. It was also the reason that Saddam Hussein was heard by many of his confederates during his final days in Baghdad to have bemoaned having been betrayed.

Aceh under Martial Law

The Indonesian President declared martial law over Aceh maintaining that his was done because of the refusal of Free Aceh Movement (FAM) rebels to accept Indonesian sovereignty over the province and gave the green light for a major military action against separatist rebels after the last-ditch peace talks in Tokyo collapsed. The peace agreement between the two parties has been beset by bickering and mistrust over the issue of independence, which FAM has long demanded. The peace pact did not address this in detail focusing more on trying to halt the fighting. Aceh, a major oil and natural gas producer, is one of two separatist hot spots in Indonesia. The other is Papua in the far-east. There is strong belief that if Aceh goes independent after East Timor it would be extremely difficult to maintain unity in Indonesia. 

Chinese Military Decades behind US forces: Report

A report by an independent task force on China formed by the Council on Foreign Relations,  led by a former US Secretary of Defence Harold Brown and a retired Admiral of the US Navy, Joseph Prueher says that China is pursuing a deliberate course of military modernization, but is at least two decades behind the United States in terms of military technology and capability, “If the United States continues to dedicate significant resources to improving its military forces, as expected, the balance between the United States and China, both globally and in Asia, is likely to remain decisively in America’s favour beyond the next 20 years”.

The report thus issues a double warning: First, don’t overreact to the large-scale modernization programme of China’s military; Second, do not under-react based on the relative backwardness of the People’s Liberation Army compared to US military power.

The US has become very conscious of China’s growing capabilities and power. The one area of near-term concern, the report concludes, is in the Taiwan Strait. Here, China is more likely to use new technologies and asymmetric strategies, not to invade Taiwan outright, but rather to achieve political goals such as forcing the resumption of political dialogue between the two sides on the mainland’s terms. While US forces would ultimately prevail in a military crisis or conflict, Beijing might be able to impose serious costs on the US military if the United States concluded that it was necessary to commit air and naval forces to battle with China in defence of Taiwan.

Iran Denies US Charge

Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi told the London-based Arabic daily al-Hayat that Iran’s dialogue with the United States stopped “for lack of seriousness” on the part of Washington. Kharazi denied as “completely baseless” US charges that Iran was sheltering al-Qaida leaders.

Pentagon Proposes ‘Regime Change’ in Iran

The Pentagon has proposed a policy of “regime change” in Iran, after a flurry of allegations that al-Qaida leaders are coordinating attacks from Iran. The Pentagon plan would involve overt means, such as anti-government broadcasts transmitted to Iran and covert means, possibly including support for the Iraq-based armed opposition movement, Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK), even though it is designated as a terrorist group by the State Department. However, the State Department has objected to the plan, saying that it would backfire, undermining the moderates around President Mohamed Khatami.

US Policy Shift on North Korea’s Nuclear Programme

US President George W. Bush stated that it was unlikely that North Korea could be persuaded to halt production of nuclear material and that he was trying to muster international resolve to prevent Pyongyang from exporting plutonium.

The move represents a change in the decade-long US policy on North Korea which stated that it should be blocked from producing plutonium or highly enriched uranium by any means necessary. Earlier the US had warned North Korea that it would resort to military means to denuclearize it. But US officials have recently said that the policy was no longer sustainable and South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun has also made it clear that he would not consider military action of any kind.

The new policy being adopted by the US would require excellent intelligence on North Korea, something that has been lacking. For instance, US officials have so far been unable to confirm whether Pyongyang’s assertion that it has restarted production of nuclear-weapons material is true or not nor have they been able to find new nuclear facilities that they believe Pyongyang is building. It would also require cozying up to China across whose border North Korea could easily transport weapons-grade nuclear material.

US General Tommy Franks Accused of

War Crimes

Gen. Tommy Franks, the US Commander in Iraq was accused of war crimes in a Belgian lawsuit that has provoked stern warnings from Washington. Nineteen plaintiffs filed the suit under Belgium’s controversial “universal competence” law, which allows charges to be brought regardless of where the alleged crimes took place. While this is expected to further cast a shadow on relations between the US and Belgium that are already soured up by Belgium’s fierce opposition to the Iraq invasion, it sets a paradoxical precedent for the future.

Ethnic Clashes in Congo

Ethnic clashes flared up in the northeastern democratic Republic of Congo again. Some African countries are facing ethnic and other regional problems that need urgent attention yet the other international developments have somehow always managed to overshadow African problems. It is time to integrate Africa with the rest of the world as it has vast unexploited resources that can be extremely useful if used properly. Pakistani soldiers have left for Congo as part of the peace keeping troops.

Special Emphasis

on Terrorism

The al-Qaida Threat to

USA and other countries

Following the attacks in Riyadh and Casablanca the Department of Homeland Security (USA) had raised the threat level to orange (high).  However intelligence reports suggest that the threat has decreased and the Department lowered the alert from orange to yellow (which is still high).  As per report published in al-Majalla magazine (published from London) on May 30, 2003 the al-Qaida may strike against targets in the USA (by putting poison in water supplies or by using Sarin the nerve gas) as well as against US forces in Iraq.  Al-Majalla had previously published an interview of Thabet bin Qais who had claimed to be al-Qaida’s new spokesman.  US intelligence and law enforcement agencies continue to warn of possible attacks in the US and US interests outside the USA.

Europe

In Britain police were looking for two men living in Britain and said to be trained by al-Qaida. One is a Muslim-convert and the other is an Asian living in Britain and authorities say both received training in Afghanistan.  According to press reports on May 26 the two senior al-Qaida leaders, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Ramzi Binalshibh, who were arrested earlier, have given details about the two men’s backgrounds and appearance.

Security officials in Georgia’s province of Abkhazia alleged that Georgian nationalist guerrilla groups are harbouring al-Qaida members and have set up training camps in the Zugdidi region, which borders the separatist province. Earlier Georgian authorities had accused Abkhazia of harbouring al-Qaida members who had fled from Kodori Gorge to Abkhazia. This is seen as attempts by both sides to discredit each other by accusing them of having links to al-Qaida.

Middle East

Reports indicate that perpetrators of the Casablanca attackers were local Islamic fundamentalists belonging to the Salafiya Jihadia and al-Tafkir Wal Hijra, used by the al-Qaida for its own purpose, rather than using its own people. These two groups are hard-line Islamic conservatives that subscribe to a very strict code of life and do not tolerate any deviation.  By using these two groups, al-Qaida’s purpose may be two-fold – (1) to target the US interests in Morocco and (2) to send a message to the Moroccan regime which it feels is too liberal, more western than Islamic, having deviated from Islam.  This could also be one of the reasons for the attacks in Saudi Arabia where the targets were housing complexes which had a large population of Muslims (mostly Saudis) whereas other residential complexes (that were not targeted) in the vicinity were occupied by westerners only.

In a new development, on May 21 Al-Jazeera aired excerpts of an audio-tape in which a top aide of Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahri, urged suicide attacks on America, England, Australia and Norway.  Al-Zawahri has been sentenced to death in absentia by an Egyptian court for his role in the 1981 assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat.  Opinion is divided as to the authenticity of the tape and whether it is really al-Zawahri on tape.  Arab countries that had offered assistance to the coalition forces in the war against Iraq also received special mention in the tape.  The speaker said that the US would next target more countries, specifically mentioning Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria and Pakistan.

The tape repeated al-Qaida’s previously stated objective of attacking US interests but this time including Norway although analysts feel that Norway may have been mentioned in error because Norway had not taken part in the war.  

As a result of intelligence reports suggesting fresh attacks, US, Germany, Britain and Italy closed down their missions in Saudi Arabia temporarily.  In Jeddah, two Moroccans suspected of al-Qaida links, were arrested and one managed to escape arrest but there is no evidence to show what they intended to do.

Following government crackdown on Islamic militants in Saudi Arabia, police arrested 11 people believed to be involved in the Riyadh attack on May 12.  Those arrested may include the alleged mastermind of the attacks, Ali Abdul Rahman al Faqasi al Ghamdi who is believed to be the top-most al-Qaida man in the country.  The Saudi crackdown has resulted in suspension of over 1,300 religious officials as well as dismissal of many others and the government hopes that this would stem the tide of militancy; however the action against religious leaders has resulted in widespread anger. The crackdown which is directed against both al-Qaida and other militant raises the fear of fresh attacks against the Saudi government.

In Morocco police arrested Abdel Haq Moulsabbat suspected of involvement in the Casablanca attacks. Abdel Haq, however, died of heart attack while on the way to hospital. A further six people have been charged for plotting terrorist attacks. Following the Casablanca attacks, the Moroccans passed a controversial anti-terrorism law which has increased the number of offences punishable by death and includes “any premeditated act, by an individual or a group that aims to breach public order through terror and violence.”

Iran has reiterated its stance against terrorism by arresting at least 500 people they claim to be members of the al-Qaida terrorist network who have entered Iran.   Iran is being accused by the US of providing safe haven to top al-Qaida members, including Saif al-Adel, an Egyptian on the FBI’s most-wanted list, and a Mauritanian Mahfouz Ould Walid, also known as Abu Hafs. These arrests will not, however, release the pressure on Iran as the US is expected to increase the pressure on the regime by asking for United Nations sanctions.

East and South East Asia

The Cambodian government has asked 47 people to leave the country by June 1, 2003.  The 47 include people of Middle East and African origin.  The move follows intelligence that a local Islamic school was involved in providing support to terrorists. The school is said to receive funds from Saudi Arabia.

In Indonesia, Mukhlas (or Ali Gufran) the alleged operations chief of JI told a Jakarta court on May 28 he knew Osama bin Laden “very well,” but his group received no assistance from al-Qaida for the Bali attacks. He said this during the trial of the Abu Bakar Bashir who is facing treason charges for the Christmas Eve 2000 church bombings.

Imam Samudra’s trial for his role in the October 2002 Bali bombings is scheduled for June 2, 2003. Samudra is also accused of his involvement in the Christmas Eve 2000 church bombings that killed 19 people in Indonesia. 

Saifullah Yunas was arrested in Mindanao (in the Philippines) on May 26 as he was boarding a flight to Manila.  He is said to be one of the most wanted Muslim guerrillas in Philippines and is accused of links with the al-Qaida. He was disguised as a patient with broken legs and was accompanied by Al Gabre Mahmud, an Egyptian who is also on a terrorist watch list. Yunas is said to have received training by al-Qaida in Afghanistan and he is believed to have trained members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in bombing techniques and urban warfare. 

In a surprise move the MILF announced a 10-day ceasefire from June 2 in its fight against the government but said that fighting would resume if the government did not meet their demands which included the government’s implementation of agreements reached in past negotiations, the withdrawal of military troops from MILF camps, and the rescinding of murder charges against MILF leaders accused in recent bomb attacks on Mindanao.

There are increasing indications that Australia may come under attacks from Jemaah Islamia (JI) the group that is alleged to be involved in the Bali bombings in October 2002. The JI is said to be planning strikes in Australia.  The JI is said to have links to al-Qaida which has specifically mentioned Australia in a recent message that threatened retribution against supporters of the war in Iraq. One more reason for threats against Australia could be that country’s role in independence for East Timor, which is pre-dominantly Christian, from Indonesia which is Muslim.

South Asia/SAARC

In a faxed message to newspapers, an unknown group calling itself the “Muslim United Army” claimed responsibility for the explosives attacks on 19 Shell and Caltex petrol pumps in Karachi, Pakistan and said more attacks would follow. There is no evidence to suggest that the petrol pump attacks were al-Qaida inspired.  Local authorities increased security measures across the country.

On receiving information about plans to bomb some target in Kandahar, on May 24 Afghan security forces arrested five people suspected of being Taliban. Afghan government and foreign military forces continue to come under attacks by Taliban and al-Qaida.

Other Terrorist Threats

Europe

On May 27, 2003 a bank was bombed in Athens.  A new Greek group calling itself “Rabid Anarchists” called a local newspaper to claim responsibility for the attack which they said was in support for 18 members of the terrorist group November 17 (N-17) who are on trial.  The N-17 is accused of 23 assassinations, including the CIA chief of station in 1975 and the British defence attaché.

The Greek police have become more aggressive in countering domestic terrorism since 2001.  In preparation they have been imparted training by British and US counter-terrorism experts. The government has extended its full support to the police and have passed strict tougher anti-terrorism law that makes it easier to convict captured terrorists. 

In Spain, the Basque terrorist group ETA struck for the second time this year when a bomb attached to a police vehicle exploded and killed three Spanish policemen.

Middle East

While talking to an Israeli newspaper the Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas said he was confident of getting the radical Islamic movement Hamas to agree to a ceasefire by next week.  The talks with the various Palestinian factions are being sponsored by the Egyptians.  However for the ceasefire to be successful, the Israelis also have to reciprocate by stopping its operations against the Palestinians and releasing all Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. Unless the Americans put pressure, Israel is most likely not going to agree to these conditions.

Steps to counter terrorism

Europe

Following the Riyadh and Casablanca bombing attacks, on May 23 British police  have erected concrete barriers around the Parliament building. This was stated to be precautionary measures and not based on any specific threat.

Russian police searched office and residential buildings as part of a massive security sweep intended to prevent terrorist attacks during ceremonies that began on May 30 and mark the 300th anniversary of the founding of St. Petersburg.  The airport has been closed to commercial aircraft temporarily until June 1 and the entire city is closed to vehicular traffic except at night. The Russians fear a Chechnyan attack during the ceremonies which will be attended by dignitaries from around the world.

France and Switzerland continue to gird themselves for the G-8 summit of the superpowers to be held on June 1-3 in Evian-les-Bains, a small French town at the foot of the Alps near the Swiss border.  Evian will be off limits to any protestors and shielded against possible terrorist attacks by missile batteries, radar emplacements, pilotless surveillance drones, fighter jets, and helicopters.  Some 15,000 military and police will be guarding the summit site, while another 8,600 will be on duty in Switzerland, largely to protect the cities of Geneva and Lausanne, which are expected to bear the brunt of some 300,000 anti-globalist demonstrators.  Traffic on Lake Geneva will be limited to official vessels during the summit.

Other Happenings

Europe

In Croatia the authorities have frozen the bank accounts of one Jordanian and one Saudi, on suspicion that the funds were used to support operations by Islamic organizations in Bosnia with likely links to al-Qaida.  The government is probing into more than 1,000 bank accounts linked to a UN list of organizations with possible ties to terrorist groups and their supporters.

East and South East Asia

China published a 55-page white paper about the Xinjiang Autonomous Region on May 26 stating that ethnic Uighur separatists in the region had engaged in terrorist acts since the early 1990s.  Uighurs were discovered fighting with al-Qaida in Afghanistan after the US invasion in October 2001, and some who were trained by al-Qaida are believed to have returned to China. The US government added one Uighur group, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, to its list of foreign terrorist organizations in August 2002. 

Uighur separatists are said to be involved in the bombing of a currency exchange office in Osh (Kyrgyz) earlier in May 2003 and in the December 2002 blast at a Bishkek market.  According to security officials both bombings were the work of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) which is alleged to have received foreign financial support and expertise from Uighur separatists.  The official also said that the Islamic fundamentalist group, Hizb ut-Tahrir, has expanded its operations in southern Kyrgyzstan into northern areas.    

Regional

Pakistan-India Relation & Regional Stability

The momentum towards peace and easing of tensions/settlement of outstanding issues between Pakistan and India slowed down considerably as both countries worked for confidence building measures. India decided to resume bus service between New Delhi and Lahore as part of a peace initiative and also announced release of 70 Pakistani fishermen and 60 civilian prisoners from Indian custody. Indian Foreign ministry officials said the decision was taken to improve people-to-people contact between the two countries.  India also approved the resumption of the Delhi-Lahore bus service, on a twice-weekly basis which had been closed down in December 2001.

The two countries have also announced a resumption of air and diplomatic links but no date for bilateral dialogue, suspended 17 months ago, has yet been set.

Analysts expect India and Pakistan to take a series of confidence-building measures before a comprehensive peace dialogue gets rolling, including discussions over Kashmir. Now with a thawing of relations it should be ensured by both sides that the people to people contact will not be affected and that the dialogue process should be continued  at all costs – only then can any misconceptions be removed on either side.

New Delhi proposes intelligence sharing

Indian Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha has proposed a “joint mechanism” with Pakistan to share intelligence to fight separatists. The Indian foreign minister, however, said that the pace for resumption of dialogue would have to be from both sides.

US Engagement in South Asia

According to diplomatic sources the United States might be willing to reward India and Pakistan if they agree to end their disputes peacefully. The report says that Washington is urging both the nations to build up the momentum for peace before addressing the 56-year Kashmir dispute. In return for these moves toward peace, Washington is willing to reward India by accepting its demand for dual-use technology, such as supercomputers, which can be used for both civil and military purposes. India has long desired this technology which will help scientific research and will also help improve its weapons-delivery systems. The Bush administration’s decision to approve the sale of Israel’s Phalcon airborne early warning system to India is also seen as a step meant to encourage the ongoing peace process.

On the other hand, Pakistan, which has already had a $1 billion debt written off, is asking for more debt retirement and a five-year economic package to allow it to rebuild its shattered economy.

The sources say that Washington may announce a major economic incentive for Pakistan when President Pervez Musharraf visits Washington in late June for talks with President Bush. President Musharraf is also expected to take up the matter of weapons supplies to India during this meeting.

India (Internal Problems)

In the absence of a clear-cut and consistent policy to deal with the many separatist groups now operating, India finds itself in extremely difficult and embarrassing circumstances. In its Northeast yet another separatist group calling itself the Achik National Volunteers Council (ANVC) revealed recently to the media that it is negotiating peace with New Delhi. ANVC wants a separate Garo State (Achik Land) made up of Garo dominated areas of Meghalaya and the Kamrup and Goalpara districts of Assam.

In Assam’s Bodo heartland, the Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT) is fighting for a separate State but has ceased their activities following an agreement with the government in Feb 2003. However, the NDFB is still fighting for a separate Bodo State outside the Indian Union. 

In Arunachal Pradesh the Police arrested Tongpong Wangham and Rajkumar. Wangham is a cabinet minister and Rajkumar a legislator from the ruling Congress party. The reason for the arrests is said to be their links to the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN) which is fighting for a separate homeland.

Attacks in Tripura by the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) and National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) in which over 30 people were killed came after the two groups had maintained a relatively low profile the previous year.  The NLFT is a different story as there has been no let up in their attacks.  Over 78 people have died due to clashes between NLFT and security forces. For the period January to May 2002 the death toll was 68 whereas the same period for 2003 shows 117. India claims that Bangladesh is supporting the ATTF and NLFT and has asked it to hand over 88 alleged “criminals and terrorists” who they say are hiding there while Bangladesh has in turn handed over their own list of people hiding in India with Indian blessings and who they want repatriated to Bangladesh to face charges.

In Tripura, India’s northeastern state, a series of abductions that began on May 18 in which 50 people have been abducted and 50 have died has been blamed on NLFT and the ATTF. The target of abductions has been government officials.  Both groups are fighting for the independence of Tripura.

Deaths during May 2003 related to independence struggles within India were:

While the war in Afghanistan may have ended, resistance by terrorists and Al-Qaida operatives continues on various levels and attacks/ambushes on government/coalition troops have been occurring frequently. Many Coalition and Afghan soldiers have died in these attacks. By far the most devastating toll occurred in Paktya when five vehicles struck a land mine in which 12 Coalition and 7 Afghan soldiers were killed and all 5 vehicles were destroyed. The mountainous topography of the country has somewhat limited the efforts of the government while offering a number of safe havens to terrorists who know the land well and are able to conduct hit and run operations at will. 

The Afghan Government is currently facing two major problems due to which it seems incapable of improving the law and order situation. Firstly, the promised funds for development projects are not being received from donors because of which the government is unable to carry out any welfare or development projects. Lack of funds is also hampering the reorganization efforts of the Afghan administration and police. Secondly, almost all operations against Taliban and Al-Qaida elements are being conducted by Coalition Forces, this is having negative fallout among the Afghanis. As it is the people feel deprived of their basic rights and incidents in which innocent lives are lost have built up strong feelings against the Coalition Forces. There have already been protests in Kabul against the presence of US and UK forces.

Members of the UN Security Council have also expressed their concern over the deteriorating law and order situation inside Afghanistan. The Russian Defence Minister while talking to newsmen in Sweden had said that due to the Iraq war,  the war against terrorism (in Afghanistan) has been ignored, due to which Taliban have stepped up their activities.

Haji Mangal Hussain, Afghan Minister for Overseas visited Pakistan for eight days. He inaugurated a new Volunteer Repatriation Registration Centre at Hayatabad, Peshawar and also met a 50-member delegation of Afghanis residing in NWFP. He opined that since a large number of educated, skilled and professional Afghans have not yet returned to Afghanistan, therefore the government is facing a deficiency of competent people. During his stay he also met the CM of NWFP and the President and the Prime Minister.

Serious differences have cropped up between the government and the Northern Alliance and many Provincial Governors have not been cooperating with the President while the law and order situation continues to deteriorate. Because of non-cooperation of governors the various development projects which were announced have not got off the ground while the taxes and other dues also are not being deposited into the government coffers.  The personal armies of these ethnic commanders also pose a potent threat as the Central Government is rendered ineffective in the establishment of its writ over the country. All attempts of the Central Government to de-weaponise these armies have failed. This has compelled President Karzai to initiate contacts with the known moderate elements within the local Pukhtoon (Taliban) leaders in a bid to obtain their cooperation for establishing the writ of the government. Reportedly the moderate Taliban have agreed to support Karzai’s government on the condition that the foreign forces are asked to leave the country and the Taliban are allowed to take part in the forthcoming elections. Karzai’s move has invoked opposition from members of the other ethnic communities within the country. Karzai’s reported threat to resign is a grave indication of the government’s inability to control the powerful ethnic local commanders who refuse to follow orders.

Gen Rashid Dostum has become the first target of President Hamid Karzai’s effort to bring unruly provinces into line. He has been removed as Deputy Minister in northern Afghanistan and moved to Kabul as a military and security adviser. By moving Dostum to the capital Karzai hopes to see a reduction in violence and tension in the north, which has hindered his efforts to unite and rebuild the country.

The overall security situation continued to remain unsatisfactory despite various measures taken by the Afghan government, including stepped up operation against Taliban and Al-Qaida. All Governors have been instructed to improve security within their areas and to deposit taxes with the Centre. Only some Governors have responded positively.

Domestic

l. Political Matters

(1) Osama Alive?

Speaking to a TV channel on April 1, 2003 President Gen Pervez Musharraf said there were indications that Osama bin Laden may be alive and that he might be hiding in the tribal territory along the Afghan border. He said that Osama could be with a small group of bodyguards, hiding on the Pakistani or Afghan side of the remote area. “Some indications are there that he is not dead but where is he? Nothing can be said about that,” the President said.

Analysis

Suspicions have been raised in the past in the media, both at home and abroad, that Osama might be alive and hiding either in Pakistan or Afghanistan. The President’s statement would confirm this line of thinking. The areas along the borders of Pakistan and Afghanistan are mountainous, rugged and inhospitable providing convenient hiding places. If the renegades keep moving and change hideouts regularly it might be quite difficult to locate them. In view of the intense hunt for him he may have opted for a smaller group of bodyguards which would make it easier for him keep in hiding.

(2) National Security Council

According to reports in the press President Gen Pervez Musharraf had expressed his willingness to enlarge the composition of the controversial National Security Council (NSC) by also including the leader of the Opposition in the Senate in that advisory body. The President has given a go-ahead signal to Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali to concede certain favours to the Opposition during talks on the Legal Framework Order (LFO).

Analysis

The NSC and LFO are both the targets of extreme opposition from political parties. The government is now seen to be agreeable to make certain concessions in order to ensure smooth progress of the ongoing Government-Opposition parleys. There has to be some give and take from both sides if a consensus is desired; remaining inflexible will bring about yet another stalemate which the country cannot afford now. The month of May could be crucial for the government to get the Opposition round to holding a joint sitting of parliament without any rumpus, and to ensure a smooth budget session in June.  Under proposals being considered now (as reported in a section of the press) the President may agree to give up his powers under article 58(2)(B) of the Constitution to send the whole assembly packing. Instead, he may retain the power to dismiss the government only. Reports indicate that the MMA wants the President to announce that he will quit the COAS office after three years and once he did that he could be jointly elected President by the ruling PML(Q) and the MMA. This could be a face-saving device which could facilitate ironing out their differences during formal talks to be started soon.

(3) Legal Framework Order (LFO)

MMA Lawmaker Hafiz Hussain Ahmed said that the alliance of religious parties would give President Pervez Musharraf a four-month deadline, till August 14 to quit the Army, placing it at odds with other Opposition parties which were demanding the General to take off his uniform immediately to end a crippling parliamentary deadlock.

On May 20 PML-Q President and parliamentary leader in the National Assembly Chaudhry Shujaat met MMA Secretary-General Maulana Fazlur Rehman and discussed the situation arising out of apparent failure of the government-opposition committee in reaching consensus over those issues. PPP Parliamentarians president and parliamentary leader in NA Makhdoom Amin Fahim joined them at the hour-long meeting.

MMA’s Deputy Secretary Liaquat Baloch said there were no differences in the religio-political alliance on the time period over the president’s uniform as it was united in its demand that the president should relinquish his army post by August 14. The government-opposition dialogue appeared to be heading towards another deadlock over the issue of separation of offices of the President and the Chief of the Army Staff.  PM Jamali has taken the stance that the question of relinquishing one of the two offices should be left to the president.

The MMA announced on night of May 28 that it would launch a public campaign against the Legal Framework Order from June 10. Qazi Hussain Ahmed told reporters that countrywide anti-LFO public meetings would be arranged.  The formal public campaign against the LFO which gave sweeping powers to the president would be launched on June 10 from Sargodha while the second meeting would be held in Karachi on June 20.

Meanwhile, on May 29 the opposition threatened to block next month’s budget unless President Pervez Musharraf agrees to set a date for quitting the military and undergoing an election. Prime Minister Jamali reiterated that nobody could do anything about the president’s uniform except the organization that gave it to him. He said all efforts were being made to resolve the controversy over the Legal Framework Order and hoped that it would be resolved soon so that the country and parliament can function.

Analysis

 According to Chaudhry Shujaat both the government and opposition parties have reached a consensus in principle that the offices of president and COAS cannot remain together. A decision to separate them has to be taken by President Gen Pervez Musharraf himself.

The issue was likely to generate a heated debate during a summit meeting of the government-opposition parties which was to be called by Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali. The PM had been holding meetings with his aides for the last couple of days after his meeting with MMA Secretary General Maulana Fazlur Rahman on May 30. The opposition had also threatened to block the presentation of the budget in June unless the issue was resolved. The government elements are endeavouring to resolve the dispute before announcement of the budget and monetary relief in various sectors have also been announced in this regard. Meanwhile, rumour mongers have started peddling their wares – rumours pertaining to dissolution of the National and Provincial Assemblies if the LFO issue is not resolved have started circulating at certain  public  circles  in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. However, in the latest developments Qazi Hussain of MMA has agreed to allow Gen Musharraf a year in uniform along with the presidency if he accepts the religious group’s demands on the LFO and recommendations of the Council of Islamic Ideology. Soon thereafter the government announced that the budget would be presented on June 7.

(4) Retention of Minimum Deterrence

The National Command Authority (NCA) said that retention of minimum deterrence was the cornerstone of the country’s security. A statement issued by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Department here after a meeting of the authority, was presided over by President Gen Pervez Musharraf, said Pakistan did not believe in an arms race.

Analysis

In the context of the geo-political situation and the regional environment that prevail currently it is vitally important that Pakistan ensures a minimum deterrence which is its right as a sovereign and free State and is the cornerstone of the country’s security.  Pakistan cannot remain divorced to the changes occurring in the region and it must continue to take necessary precautions to safeguard its own interests and the interests of its people.

(5)  Merger of Nationalist Parties

The National Awami Party Pakistan (NAPP) led by Ajmal Khattak has merged itself with the Awami National Party (ANP) in the larger interests of the Pakhtuns. Abdul Latif Afridi, General Secretary of NAPP said that NAPP was still intact inspite of Ajmal Khattak’s joining ANP. People in NWFP, in general, have welcomed the merger.

Analysis

The merger of these two nationalist parties is seen as an important development which will foster greater understanding and unity among the Pakhtun people and will give the party a much broader base and a stronger voice in the affairs of the Province. Many leading Pakhtun leaders feel that disunity among the Pakhtuns was one of the main causes for their backwardness, poverty and deprivation at national level. The merger will allow the party to focus on eradication of the many problems which the province is faced with and also give it more leverage in dealing with the government for the solution of, what is viewed by them, as their grievances at the hands of the government.

(6)  Consensus on India-Pak talks

Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali held talks with the country’s top politicians which demonstrated national unity in the planned peace moves with India. The general public also heaved a collective sigh of relief on the unison displayed by political parties and their support to the Prime Minister. The PM assured them that there would be no compromise on the Kashmir issue.

Analysis

This augurs well for the future of the political environment and for the country as well. Despite disagreements and difference of opinions on a number of issues between the government and opposition, there is complete unanimity of views and cohesion on issues that are of national interest. This will convey a strong message of national unity.

(7)Parliamentarians

Arrive in India

A 13-member  goodwill  delegation of Pakistani Parliamentarians arrived in India through Wagah Border on May 8 on a week-long unofficial peace mission that is expected to  include  high-level  meetings  at  the  parliament  in  New  Delhi. They were given a well-publicized and warm welcome by the Indians. The visit has come at a time when peace overtures between India and Pakistan have started after a stand-off for 17 months. The delegation is expected to meet the speaker of India’s parliament Manohar Joshi and two parliamentary delegations in New Delhi on May 9.

Analysis

The visit by the parliamentarians comes amid a sudden thaw in India-Pakistan relations. Although this is an unofficial visit and the delegation is not carrying any official message for the Indian Government nonetheless one hopes it is able to adopt Track-II diplomacy role and convey to the Indian counterparts the stance and views of Pakistan on the grassroots level on a number of issues first-hand and in the process get valuable feedback from the Indians. This visit could bring about more goodwill between the two countries.

(8) No More Free Trips for Bureaucrats

PM Jamali has banned his ministers and federal secretaries’ trips to foreign countries just for signing agreements with other countries and has empowered Pakistani Ambassadors to do that job.

Analysis

This is a welcome move, one that will not go down well with ministers and the bureaucracy because this effectively curtails their “all expenses paid pleasure trips” to foreign lands that they had been so used to availing at the expense of the hard earned tax payers money. Most upset will be those bureaucrats and ministers who had already moved summaries to the PM to get the required approval and dollars for such trips. The PM stated that wastage of tax payers’ money would not be allowed for the sake of a “half-an-hour ceremony abroad”.

(9)  Bugging to be legalized?

The Federal Government is considering amending the Telegraph Act to improve intelligence surveillance of the Crime Investigation Departments (CIDs) in the country, according to reports in newspapers. The need for amending the Telegraph Act was felt after the Additional Inspector General of CID Punjab presented a report to the Interior Ministry regarding terrorism in the province and pointed out areas of concern. The IG indicated that terrorism in future would depend upon re-grouping of Jihadi elements and relations with India. Speaking about the flaws pointed out by the IG under the present mechanism, taping telephonic conversation and tracking other digital information was considered a violation of human rights. However, the proposed amendment was aimed at legalizing eavesdropping.

Analysis

The taping of telephone conversation is considered a violation of human rights. Moreover any record presented to courts obtained from eavesdropping is not acceptable as evidence. In such a scenario it would seem that this may not be an easy task by any means. Human Rights groups will be the first to raise objections while the proposed amendment will certainly be challenged in the courts by concerned citizens as well as by those who may feel threatened at this move. Many countries in the world do not allow bugging or taping of conversation but their intelligence agencies perform extremely efficiently because of the quality of training that is imparted. Why cannot our officers also be sent abroad for professional training to learn the advanced and scientific methods of crime fighting that are in vogue elsewhere?

(10) Lawyers to launch protest on June 9

The Joint Action Committee of lawyers have warned of a “direct action” on June 9 against the Superior court judges who have availed a 3-year extension in their respective tenures under the LFO.  The site of their protest will be the Supreme Court building in Islamabad. They demanded the judges to vacate their offices by June 9.

Analysis

The judge’s decision to enjoy extended tenures under the LFO may lead to serious constitutional vacuum according to some observers who feel that the CJ should have made a collective decision in a full court meeting after talking to the judges on this issue as apparently there is a rift in the judiciary with regard to the extension issue. Others feel that the threatened “direct action” on June 9 in the SC premises could disgrace the judiciary which should not be allowed.

(11) Vice Squad-NWFP Approves Draft

‘Hisba Act’

On May 22 the NWFP cabinet approved the draft ‘Hisba Act’ with the stated objective of enforcing the Islamic principles of promoting virtue and preventing vice. The draft act will be presented before the NWFP Assembly’s session to be convened on May 27. The Law Secretary said that Hisba Act had been drafted on the Islamic principles of Amr Bil Maroof and Nahi Anil Munkar – promoting virtue and preventing vice and that the Hisba Force would be raised from within the existing police force and would act as the implementing arm of the Mohtasib.

In a related incident on May 23 overzealous activists of  Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) destroyed signboards and advertisement hoardings having photos of females and also cut connections of TV cable network in different parts of Peshawar as the drive against “obscenity”. The JI leaders have defended the move and even “praised” their activists therefore it is obvious that the party has given its blessings for such acts of vandalism. In fact this is exactly the kind the brand of “enforcement” of Islamic values that people are worried about. The general people have condemned these acts in no uncertain terms.

Analysis

While the implementation of laws to enforce Islamic values is welcome there remains widespread anxiety within a large section of the population and the intelligentsia that this may lead to a Taliban-like Islamic system which was evident in Afghanistan under their vice and virtue department. According to the draft any order that is issued by the Mohtasib will not be challengeable by any court of law nor could a stay be granted. This will give the Mohtasibs (and the Hisba Force) absolute powers to interpret and use the law as deemed fit while the citizens will not have recourse to any appeal. Every citizen should have the right to appeal, this is his fundamental right.

In the meantime the “self-styled” anti-obscenity operation launched by the activists of the JI Youth Wing has been cause for alarm among the people, specially the business community and traders.

(12) ANP Warns of Armed Resistance

The Awami National Party’s Khyber Agency chapter has warned authorities that the people may be forced to take up arms if electricity meters were installed in the tribal areas. They urged the Federal Government to provide royalty on power being produced at the Warsak Dam before they could be convinced to negotiate on the matter of installing electricity meters. The people of the area would never pay electricity bills until the question of royalty is solved.

Analysis

The government’s decision to install electric meters in Fata areas has not gone down well with the population in that area. However, the matter of electricity and royalty for Warsak Dam are two separate issues and it is deplorable that a mainstream political party has given a call for an armed uprising instead of looking at it in its true perspective. As it is FATA consumers owe billions to WAPDA despite 5 billion rupees being written off.  The government must not give in to blackmail and like all consumers, inhabitants of FATA must also pay their dues.

(13) Punjab PA Members

Held, Released

On May 27 the Punjab Police detained 22 opposition members of the Punjab Assembly, including their leader Qasim Zia and deputy leader Rana Sanaullah Khan for six hours when they insisted on attending the assembly proceedings in defiance of the Speaker’s orders which barred them from taking part in the proceedings of the ongoing session. They were later released on the directive of the government in the afternoon. The next day on May 28 police again bundled away 36 opposition legislators and 25 political workers when they tried to enter the Assembly building once more. Some of the MPAs were alleged to have been mishandled by the police while some journalists were also thrashed and abused. The legislators were later released. Speakers Afzal Sahi told reporters that he had not directed anyone to prevent the members from entering the Assembly. The Police have registered cases against 13 opposition MPAs, including leader of opposition in Punjab Assembly, Qasim Zia, and deputy leader, Rana Sanaullah Khan and 21 workers of the PPP and the PML-N. They were charged with creating a law and order situation, obstructing public order and raising slogans against the government. The opposition workers were not released. Cantonment police SP, Dr. Usman Anwar said he was not aware whether the MPAs were allowed to enter the assembly building or not, his job was only to maintain law and order which he was doing.

Analysis

Punjab Chief Minister, Ch. Pervaiz Elahi has said that the opposition has the democratic right to express its opinion; however, it will not be allowed to take liberties like snatching away the microphone from the Speaker or snatching the “dupatta” of a lady MPA. The CM alleged that the opposition members were disrupting the Assembly session only to please their political masters settled abroad. The clashes in the Punjab Assembly between the treasury and opposition benches – and later with the police – are extremely distasteful and disturbing. On May 26 many opposition male and female MPAs clambered on the Speaker’s podium to disrupt the proceedings of the house that led to pandemonium. It has been said that the fracas was the result of the Speaker’s refusal to hear the opposition’s grievances alleging distribution of development funds within their constituencies through the defeated candidates of the ruling party. The ugly scenes might have been prevented had the Speaker acted in a spirit of understanding. Many feel that the Speaker’s action in barring opposition MPAs from attending the current session was much too sweeping and unjustifiable.

It is about time the opposition members started practising more restraint and showing respect for parliamentary norms in venting their grievances (after all they are the educated ones). The ruling party must also show accommodation and tolerance. All said and done the signs are not good and point to more trouble in the days ahead – the Punjab government would do well to attend to immediate damage control measures.

(14)  Shariat Bill – NWFP

The NWFP government has tabled the Shariat Bill, 2003, in the Provincial Assembly for discussion on May 27. The bill which is based on the objective resolution and recommendations of the Islamic Ideology Council does not contain a single clause that may be repugnant to the Constitution of Pakistan. After its promulgation, three separate commissions on education, economic reforms and judicial system would be formed to bring some basic changes into the existing judicial, education and economic disciplines in the province.

Analysis

The fact that this Bill does not contain anything which is repugnant to the Constitution is indeed as it should be. It is the interpretation and implementation processes which remain cause for concern for many. The recent un-lawful destruction of sign-boards and hoarding by rampaging Jamaat-e-Islami activists without legislation and due warning to the business community is a case in point. Because of the ensuing uproar Qazi Hussain Ahmad has directed party workers not to remove or break any signboards bearing women’s photos – “till further instructions”, it is the last part of the statement which has ominous connotations and may rekindle fears of such an action again. The government had registered FIR against JI activists which Pir Mohammad Khan of the MMA urged be withdrawn, “because they did nothing illegal” – if wanton destroying of property is not “illegal” then what is?

ll. Law & Order

• On April 30, 2003 Pakistan arrested six “high-profile” Al Qaida suspects who were allegedly planning a terror attack in Pakistan. A raid was conducted in Karachi which resulted in the capture which included Waleed Mohammad bin Attash who is an important member of Al-Qaida. 150 kilograms of high-powered explosives and a large cache of ammunition were found on the men.

• The Police Department has stated that the crime rate has declined in Sindh, especially Karachi. A performance report of the Police Department reveals that 27 dacoits were killed in 146 encounters in Sindh Province between January 1 and April 15, 2003 with 65 encounters in Karachi, 19 in Hyderabad and 62 in Sukkur. Fifteen outlaws were killed in encounters in Karachi, four in Hyderabad and eight in Sukkur.  Some of the most notorious bandits who were wanted for murders, arson, kidnapping for ransom, etc have been eliminated. The report says that the overall crime rate has declined, as 12,027 crimes were registered from January 1 to April 14, 2003, against the 14,874 cases registered during the corresponding period last year, showing a difference of 2,846 cases. The improvement has been registered only in Karachi, excepting a slight improvement in Sukkur. The report notes that the crime rate in the Hyderabad region has increased.

• In Karachi the crime graph registered a decline of 2,934 cases during the above period, as 6,071 cases were registered against the 9,005 last year. In the Sukkur region 3,283 crimes were reported last year and 3,254 during three and a half months this year, showing a decline of only 28 cases. In the Hyderabad region, the crime figure rose to 2,702 this year, against the 2,586.

• After the arrest of Waleed Mohammad bin Attash, a Yemeni allegedly involved in the bombing the USS Cole in Yemen which killed 17 US sailors, 4 more Al-Qaida men, (3 Egyptians and an Afghan), were picked up in raids in Karachi and Balochistan. Arms and ammunitions, explosives, laptop computers, satellite phones and other communication related devices were also recovered. An intelligence agency and Rangers in a joint operation in Surjani Town, Karachi arrested an al-Qaida suspect Asmatullah Kaka. Asmatullah was said to be an official of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. On indication of Kaka the Rangers raided Shah Noorani area in Balochistan and arrested Ibadat Jan Ilahi. Two sub-machine guns, a satellite phone, 250 dollars and 100 Euros were also captured from the suspects.

• Law enforcement agencies in Karachi have been put on high alert after a US warning about a possible aerial suicide attack on its Consulate General in Karachi. While the US Department of Homeland Security has clarified that the warning was not based on a specific threat but on some information received at the newly formed Terrorist Threat Integration Centre at the CIA, the local police have taken extra security measures at the Consulate General and other US interests in the metropolis.

• 11 persons were injured when an explosive device went off in a bus at the Pathan Colony bus stop in Hyderabad on May 10. Six of the injured who had minor injuries were discharged from the hospital while the rest were admitted to the hospital; however their condition was stated to be stable by the doctors.

• A  bomb  exploded  in  front  of  the  Christian  Memorial  School  at  Bannu.  The bomb was  placed  in  an  under  construction  shop  beside  the  boundary  wall of the  School. The governor NWFP was also visiting the city.

• A series of bomb explosions took place on May 15 at 21 petrol pumps in Karachi within a span of one hour. Nineteen bombs exploded at Shell Pakistan outlets while another two at Caltex Pakistan stations. Police have failed to make a breakthrough Thursday. The bombs were of low intensity and had been locally assembled with 15-minute timer. They were put into dustbins placed beside fuel pumps by motorcyclists. No casualty was reported anywhere.  It could have bearing on internal problems within the Pakistani unit of Shell.

• One person was killed and 11 others injured, three of them seriously, when members of two religious sects opened fire on each other in Chak 68-GB, Jaranwala Tehsil about 43 km from Faisalabad on Thursday, May 15. The confrontation took place between a Sunni led procession on the occasion of Eid Milad-un-Nabi. When they came near the local Ahle Hadith mosque-cum-madressah they were told by the students not to raise slogans in front of the mosque. On their refusal things took an ugly turn and the two groups attacked each other with iron rods and stones, firearms were also used.

• A member of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and his nephew were shot dead by unidentified assailants near Gulberg roundabout in Karachi late in the night of May 19.   Naushad Ansari, 36 and his nephew Moiz Adil 16 were sprayed with bullets by some unidentified persons when they were getting into their car at a cigarette/paan shop. Both had multiple bullet wounds and died on the spot. Tension prevailed in the area while police patrolling has been intensified.

• A 13-years-old boy was shot dead and the DIG Karachi Operations and nine other people were wounded on May 23 in a clash between two religious groups over a mosque in New Karachi. The clash began when people coming out of Rahmania Mosque in sector 11-G after Juma prayers were fired upon by two men riding a motorcycle. Later, more people suffered bullet wounds in the subsequent armed clash between the two groups, vehicles and a shop was set on fire. The police tried to control the situation and in the process the DIG also suffered two bullet wounds on his legs. The police said that this was the result of a dispute over the possession of Rahmania Mosque between Tehrik Ahl-i-Hadith and Sunni Tehrik.

• On night of May 28 Quetta was rocked by two explosions with brief intervals and two rockets were seized on the city’s outskirts. Thankfully no loss of life or property was reported. One explosion occurred near the house of a doctor behind the Civil Hospital at about 10:15pm while the second bomb went off 10 minutes later in Shahbaz Town.

• There was no let up in power breakdowns during May 2003, if anything the situation was worse than the previous month. Many localities in Karachi had to go without electricity for more than 12 hours on the stretch and even after power was ‘restored’ severe voltage fluctuation continued unabated. Water shortage is another problem that hounds many parts of the country but as always both water and power officials remain unmoved and disinterested. Cliché ridden statements are doled out for benefit of newspapers, the blame is put on someone else. Nothing has ever been done to improve services yet tariffs are increased.

Index to Threat Level Perceptions

Threat Level 1                         

No threat at all to expatriates, families and interests, except isolated possibilities of muggings, petty thefts and stealing. No special precaution is required on travelling.

 

Threat Level 2

General law and order problem in parts of the country. Basic precaution required in travelling outstation. Caution required against particular threats building up. Observation required. No particular threats to families.

 

Threat Level 3

Serious law and order problems building up in some parts of the country. Travel restrictions to be imposed. Families to remain within Islamabad unless extremely necessary to travel. Evacuation plans may be made ready.

 

Threat Level 4

Threat of limited war, social chaos and collapse of civil administration expected in certain parts of the country. All staff, families and personnel to remain restricted within Islamabad or indoors. Evacuation of families and extra staff to begin, keeping only a rear guard team to look after interests.

 

Threat Level 5

Full blown war, total collapse of law and order, invasion/occupation of the country. The rearguard team to get into their embassy and try to get out of the country somehow.