To Russia with Love

Columnist M ZAFAR comments on President Musharraf’s visit to Russia.

Laden with love and goodwill President General Pervez Musharraf arrived at Moscow’s Vnukvo airport on a chilly afternoon of early February to a correct and diplomatic reception. It was after a lapse of some thirty years that a President of Pakistan had set foot in Moscow. It was perhaps in this context that a newspaperman ventured to ask the President as to what hopes did he pin on the visit. ‘Good hopes’ replied the President. After a three-day sojourn in the capital of Russia, it was about that much that he was bringing back home. Good hopes.
Could something more have been brought back considering that the preparations for the visit had been going on for the past six months and that since the last presidential visit the world had undergone a sea of change?
For instance the bipolar world of 1970s was now unipolar. Russia the successor power to the defunct Soviet Union and the United States were no longer each other’s enemy, they were partners now. A number of the Soviet republics of Eastern Europe had opted out of Russian camp and had already joined the NATO Alliance and many others were actively pursuing candidature for the membership of the European Union. US had established bases in a number of erstwhile Soviet republics and was directing operations in Afghanistan where it was now the major occupation power. In India BJP led Government was tilted more in favour of the US. A difference in attitudes and perceptions was visible.
Pakistan had made a U-turn in policy and having forsaken its Taliban allies was now West’s partner in the fight against them and other armed groups specified as terrorists by the United States. In its role in the anti- terrorist coalition Pakistan was cognizant of and sympathetic to the Russian concerns against Muslim fundamentalist groups that were suspected of aiding the rebel groups in Chechenya. Positive Pakistani response to Russian sensitivity to all forms of religious and ethnic extremism, illicit trade in drugs and materials related to nuclear weapons was reassuring to Moscow.
Then the new order that had taken over in post-Yeltsin Russia was qualitatively different from what Russia had seen for decades. It was led by younger, sharper and more self-confident elements who had dreams of reviving Russia to the position and glory that its size and resources entitled it to. This leadership aimed to actively pursue national interests of Russia at realistic levels and influence the politics of the world for the purpose.
In the years immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia had been effectively blocked and frustrated in Central Europe and the Balkans. Russia naturally concentrated on Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East for diplomatic initiatives. Their aim in Eastern Europe and Central Asia was to retain a semblance of sphere of influence, while in the Middle East it was to venture forth and make a presence howsoever tentative, for an eventual capability to interpose itself as an arbiter between the local powers and the West. Iraq and Iran appeared feasible and offered chances of success. In such a scheme of things, Pakistan would stand out as a strategic highground on the flank that would need to be taken into account. Pakistan if left out as an open and free ground for contrary influences could pose serious problem to the success of such a scheme.
From the perspective of Islamabad the disturbance in the equilibrium of power in the region caused by a sudden turn in US policy following the events of 9/11 and a certain amount of thaw in the Indo-Chinese relations had to be corrected. Read in this context a thaw in the mutual relations would appear to be in the interest of both countries. The President who understands diplomacy through strategy and dynamics of power came directly to the point when he invited the Russians to the Mekran Coast and asked them to help him build new routes to Central Asia. It must have come as quite a shock to the high priests of foreign policy. For years the establishment at the Foreign Office has been stuck in the imperial era groove. It was normal for them to raise the bogey of Russians in the Arabian Sea. The cardinal principle was to contain Russia on the other side of the Oxus and deny it the approach to the warm waters. It was in furtherance of this principle that Liaquat Ali Khan was not allowed to respond immediately to the Russian invitation back in 1949. It was the same prejudice that blinded Pakistani establishment to the real and strategic import of Tashkent 1966 and allowed it to be cast in an adversarial position to the power located in the heart Asia during the crisis of 1971. Tashkent had made it clear to all that the vault carrying the key to peace in South Asia had been shifted from London to Moscow. It never ever reached Washington. And may we say that it continues to lie there.
Russian power in the Arabian Sea would certainly be deemed as counterpoise to West’s hegemony in the Indian Ocean but how would this pose a danger to Pakistan? If anything it would counterbalance the preponderate powers of the West and bring stability and prosperity for the region. Perhaps the history of Pakistan-Russian relations needs to be reread from purely Pakistani perspective. If that can be done then the follow up actions on directions delineated during General Pervez Musharraf’s historic trip to the Moscow will seem to be a lot easier.
Proceed within that framework of policy, however, given the history of Russo-Pakistani relations and indecently demonstrated sensitivity by India, let circumspection be the hallmark. Aim to reopen the political dialogue through the more innocuous route of trade. Remember that on 30th March 2000 only days after President Clinton’s visit to India, Russia and Pakistan exchanged letters regarding the establishment of Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic and Scientific and Technological Cooperation. This Commission was to act as a catalyst for improving trade between the two countries, which in 2000 was about 40 million dollars. That body took time to get organised. The joint statement issued at the end of President General Pervez Musharraf’s visit makes a mention of that body and charges it with activities aimed at expansion of trade between the two countries.
Earlier in December 1999, the Russians showing understanding for the problems of Pakistan’s economy and exporters to Russia in particular initialed an agreement to develop an agreed mechanism of settling the outstanding claims of Pakistani companies related to freight adjustment operations. Russia’s metallurgical industry had been keen to reoccupy its place of pre-eminence as suppliers of spares and machinery for upgradation and expansion of production facilities of Pakistan Steel and for Russian manufactured power plants of WAPDA. Having played a pioneering role in the field of Oil and Gas Exploration in Pakistan, the Russians were more than ready and willing to continue and expand the scope of their work. All this has been reaffirmed in the joint statement.
In return Pakistan could export textiles and madeups, rice, medicines, surgical and medical equipment, sports and leather goods in addition to other countless value added products. There are a number of Pakistan businessmen who are located in Russia and know the market well. Given the minimal encouragement and essential infrastructural facilities these extraordinary sets of men can do wonders to business between the two countries. The potential of trade between the two countries was estimated in year 2000 at 200 million dollars per year. Today the volume of yearly trade stands around $80 million. This can be easily improved. Pick it from there and you are well on the way.