Dear Readers,
The sad news is that my tutor of
40 years Col (Retd) Nusrat Ullah, Chairman PATHFINDER
GROUP and one of the PATRONS
of the Defence Journal, is no more. He died of medical
complications in the morning of Monday Nov 22, 2004.
While I have written a full obituary for him separately,
for the benefit of readers I am re-producing the notice
we sent to the print media:
I am taking the liberty
of re-producing my article, "FIGHTING TERRORISM
WITH TECHNOLOGY", the first one in 18 years without
Col Nusrat's editorial input.
Increasingly technology has become
an essential weapon in the “war against terrorism”,
for both sides! Those fighting terrorism will not
only use technology but will develop and enhance its
effectiveness to counter terrorism. Conversely, the
terrorists can acquire existing technology with relative
ease and narrow the huge resource gap that they have
to contend with in the form of the State's many resources
and existing capability thereof. Developed countries
with resources and in danger of being put to the “terrorist
sword” are putting in considerable effort and
time in developing technologies to counter terrorist
activity. Without adequate resources or even a technological
base third world countries like Pakistan tend to react
to terrorist threat rather than pre-empt that possibility,
what is required is real-time recognition of threat
perception as well as constant effort to develop technologies
in anticipation of possible future threats. However,
on the bright side, the technological gap can be covered
by “leapfrogging” over certain stages,
provided the resources are adequate to acquire the
technology.
Terrorists have an inherent advantage
that they can (and do) use low-tech methods to carry
out successful attacks against well-established, sophisticated
and advanced systems, these are finding it increasingly
difficult to counter the surprise factor inherent
in such attacks. The ready ability of terrorists to
resort to “suicide bombing” has force-multiplied
their potential for grand mayhem even with small amounts
of explosives and with relatively primitive detonation
methods. While snipers have their own dangerous ability
to pick out selected targets, with asymmetrical similarity
to those armed with automatic weapons and grenades
targeting crowded places. There is also the vulnerability
of the world's developing communications technology
to cyber-terrorism. Among the non-conventional terrorism
capabilities one can include chemical, biological
and radiological (CBR) means, not excluding the greatest
tangible threat of all, the use of illegally acquired
nuclear weapons. Some nations, Pakistan included,
are suspected of passing on the know-how and capability
to terrorist networks, even to so-called “rogue
nations” sponsoring terrorism. That some terrorist
organization can get hold of a nuclear device is a
recurrent nightmare for anti-terrorist organizations!
It is quite probable that instead of developing the
weapon themselves, terrorist networks may acquire
these illegally “off the shelf”. Rigged
in a crude way a small nuclear device can become,
what is internationally known as, a “dirty-bomb”.
Faced with such a myriad number of
possibilities, how does one begin to formulate a credible
defence? A comprehensive defence plan has to, viz
(1) identify the threat/s (2) make a detailed analysis
of their potential and (3) work out priorities in
evaluating ways and means of countering such threats.
Unless one can devise a comprehensive operational
plan we cannot to define the operational needs and
without such precise definition, it would not be possible
to even begin assessing the existing technological
capabilities, what to talk about how these could be
deployed to meet potential existing and future threats.
Some countries such as US, UK, France,
Germany, Israel, etc already have trained and equipped
units which specialize in handling immediate threats
by using their available capabilities in personnel
and training matched with technology. Depending upon
the nature of the threat and severity thereof, one
can prioritize how to handle such threats. One can
use the knowledge and experience available to translate
this potential into development of technology to meet
future threats. What is essential is to correctly
assess the gap between the present and future requirements.
Having evaluated the requirements, one can better
allocate funds for technology conversion and development,
this is easily possible in these countries where security
is the top of the agenda. Countries like Pakistan
have to rely on the achievements and expertise of
others to narrow the gap with those who already have
technology as a counter to terrorism catered for in
their threat perception. Countries like US may like
to lead the effort in a coordinated way to focus the
research and development of their available defence
systems.
One needs to counter terrorism by
having successive layers on defence, putting emphasis
on the most dangerous threats and the likely targets
thereof. Among the required capabilities for countering
terrorism will be the ability to, viz (1) detect people
organized in terrorist activity and identify them,
and have the capability of simultaneously monitoring
their movements (2) detect the supply sources of explosive
materials likely to be used, after all the terrorists
have to procure it from somewhere (3) mobilize one's
defence capability to recognize and counter specific
threats (4) mobilize adequate and coordinated intelligence
capability, utilizing both human and electronic intelligence
(5) focus on air, sea, rail and road travel as potential
terror targets and (6) guard the country's frontiers,
this may involve monitoring and observation of thousands
and thousands of miles of borders.
Many of the systems required have
been developed and already incorporated into air-to-air
missiles, anti-tank missiles, etc e.g. electro-optic
and electronic sensors, radars, lasers, etc. Not only
these have to be adapted for anti-terrorist activity,
they have also to be developed and produced in an
economic manner. Some are basically protective materials
e.g. material in bullet proof vests and vehicles,
lighter material has to be produced in a cost-effective
manner so that weight does not become an obstacle,
particularly true in the protection of aircraft. Sophisticated
use of software in advanced weapon systems can be
crafted and converted for battlefield situations like
the real-time identification of persons and/or systems
used in an attack and the immediate means for countering
these. Command and control systems are already in
use in many countries like Pakistan need to quickly
adapt to this to give senior commanders inherent capability
to map out both enemy and friendly forces so as to
have real-time monitoring of terrorists activity and
provide the necessary coordination in pre-empting
their moves. Electronic Intelligence (Elint) is already
being used by armies in the battlefield, space technology
is being applied in satellites and sensors in space
and high-altitude drones. What was earmarked for strategic
defence can be easily adapted to tactical anti-terrorist
activity. However new technological capabilities will
be required for a complete system that can afford
simultaneous detection and identification at reasonable
cost.
Civilian aircraft are particularly
vulnerable, we need to develop inexpensive sensors
and integrate them into an effective early warning
system, but even with this addition aircraft will
continue to remain very indefensible against terrorist
activity. Among the other things we need to do, data
cross-referencing should incorporate the capability
of voice and visual recognition. While this can be
created with existing technology additional technological
advances are required for cross-referencing with sensors
for quick detection and identification of biological
and chemical warfare materials.
What is immediately needed is viz
(1) detection and identifying of explosives at some
distance with a target for remote neutralization of
the same, the “jammers” saved Gen Musharraf
in the first assassination attempt in Dec 2004 (2)
develop adequate intelligence capability to respond
to not only to constant queries but update the requirements
from the data available, a start has been made by
having a Crisis Management Cell (CMC), their potential
needs substantial upgrading (3) develop adequate defence
of computer communications by homing in on critical
national systems and pinpointing their weaknesses
(4) coordinate and cooperate with world institutions
like the UN, Interpol, etc for monitoring and preventing
the use of non-conventional terrorist matter and (5)
constant monitoring of nuclear facilities by techno-advanced
technological means and stopping the clandestine shipping
of fissile materials.
There are many ways fighting terrorism,
while technology is obviously not the only means for
waging a “war against terrorism”, technology
can be used as effectively to curb this burgeoning
menace.
M. Ikram Sehgal
