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Middle East and World Peace Post Arafat
The possibility of a permanent solution of the Palestinian problem post-Arafat.
[SAEED WAHLAH]

Yasser Arafat addressed the UN in New York on November 13, 1974 and said, “Today I have come bearing an olive branch and a freedom fighter's gun. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat: do not let the olive branch fall from my hand.” If the leader nations among the international community had acted promptly then, there might not have been rise of Osama bin Laden and fall of twin towers on 9/11. It appears that there is a direct and proportionate connection between falling down of olive branch from Yasser Arafat's hands in 1974 in New York and falling down of twin towers in the same city in 2001. USA, UK and Israel think that Yasser Arafat's death on November 11th, 2004 has removed a hurdle in the way of peace process. Many other countries, especially Muslim countries, think that it is his 40 years-long struggle and sacrifices of millions of Palestinians that forced these powers to look for a peace at the first place....more

Seeking South Asian Enlightenment
The need for genuine rapprochement in the region based on compromises on major issues
[Dr S M RAHMAN]

In Hamlet, Lord Polinius tells his son, “To thy own self be true”. South Asia, if conceived as a single 'self', in a configurational sense, has not been true to itself in achieving the quintessential essence of 'being' - a vibrant regional community, riding the path of enlightenment through a collective paradigm of development. A realization has dawned among the policy-makers concerned with development that unless distributive justice is maintained along with the economic growth, the accruing miseries will have contagious effect to nullify whatever comes under the glittering package of 'macro development'. A culture of violence is an inevitable consequence.

It is not religion but political and economic injustice, which forces people towards adoption of any means for compensation. Call it terrorism or anything or whatever you may like. Struggle for identity and independence cannot be suppressed by labelling it 'terrorism'. It is a bad diagnosis and equally bad therapy to quell the uprising for seeking dignified existence through military means. It is anachronistic. It has not worked in the past and will not work in the future. No matter how much military power is brought into operation, the ultimate victor shall be the 'will' of the people....more

PAF begins to narrow the technological gap and some
PAF has managed to catch up despite resource constraints
[Air Commodore (Retd) JAMAL HUSSAIN ]

The Early Era
PAF's reputation as a competent and professional outfit has been built on the concept of a stringent selection criteria and sound training standards. Its superior performance in the two wars against India especially in 1965 was a result of higher proficiency level of its aircrew and a slight edge in technology that it enjoyed till then (1965) because of US military aid.

During the 1965 war, IAF had banked upon its considerable numerical superiority to overwhelm the PAF but the end result was very different. PAF outperformed IAF in all departments, especially in air combat. IAF analysts subscribed PAF's superiority to the slight technological edge it enjoyed against IAF. They concluded that PAF's possession of air-to-air missiles and a single operational squadron of supersonic mach 2 (twice the speed of sound) fighters and their absence with the IAF provided PAF pilots with a tremendous advantage and were demoralizing for the IAF aircrew. IAF's numerical superiority was effectively neutralized and proved of little avail in the conflict....more

The Kashmir Options
The various issues raised by Gen Pervez Musharraf in an informal talk to the media.
[MUHAMMAD IRSHAD]

President Pervez Musharraf has invited the nation to think loudly about the various options that could help in resolving the Kashmir issue. Thus he becomes the first Pakistani ruler to have declared publicly that Kashmir solution through Plebiscite was not possible, and if Kashmir issue was to be resolved then second best option must be found. For a nation that was told for more than five decades that “Plebiscite was the only possible solution of Kashmir”, it was really a big surprise. But it is amazing that this latest suggestion by President , which is certainly not in conformity of our age-long policy has been received with enthusiasm and positive comments are pouring in from the editorial writers and commentators. Even those who opposed did it on technical grounds and did not term the president as “traitor”. It shows the measure of political maturity our opinion leaders have attained despite being ruled by a uniformed president....more

A true picture of economy
A critical analysis of SBP annual report (2003-04).
[MEHMOOD-UL-HASSAN KHAN]

The central bank of a country always plays very important role to boast the economy and lay down all the macro level policies to keep all the essentials of development in order. The State Bank of Pakistan being the central bank of the country is also doing its level best to draw the exact picture of economy and its disturbing socio-economic trends which may if not tackled properly hit the desired goals of development. In its annual report (2003-04) the State Bank of Pakistan warn the government of emerging vagueness on the national and global economic fronts during the current fiscal year. The annual report of the State Bank (2003-04), gives a fairly comprehensive assessment of the economy for the year 2003-04 and outlines likely trends for the current year. The robust growth of 6.4 percent during Fy04 was not only substantially higher than the 5.1 percent increase recorded during 2002-03 but was also well above the 5.3 percent target for the year....more

All people are equal - Some are more equal than others
Treal universalism preserves the best from all worlds
[RENEE SCHWALLER]

As young children, my older sister and I were temporarily put up in a boarding school. At some stage my sister had set her sights on a new electronic gadget and was keen to buy it. She asked the lady in charge of my unit, whether she could have the money that I had as well, putting forward the argument that I “didn't need” it. The money was of course not given to her, and I was advised to spend my pocket money in time. Nowadays, my sister and I get along nicely and I am able to safeguard my own interests quite well. But the lesson is clear: if you are not strong and mature and not able to use your abilities and resources to the full, somebody stronger is likely to be tempted to come along and take advantage of you. Trying to be equally strong or equally able or equally well-off than others not only keeps us on our toes and helps to keep the economy going, it is becoming more and more essential to survival. The planet earth is becoming a little crowded and resources are getting precious and much sought after....more

Liberties and Freedom of Expression
The various freedoms and how they are being enjoyed by different people in different regions.
[A RASHID]

reedom of expression is coveted as a means to achieving all the four freedoms enunciated by US President Franklin D. Roosevelt in the State of the Union message he delivered to the US Congress on Jan. 6, 1941. Roosevelt stated these freedoms to be “the freedom of speech and expression, the freedom of every person to worship God in his own way, the freedom from want, and the freedom from fear.”

Major part of the history of human civilization was consumed by the totalitarian dispensations where the rulers considered even the mention of civil liberties as sedition and the irony is that due to the fear created through constant state terror, even the majority of the common people considered it a sin. The spectre of censorship, as a term in English, goes back to the office of censor established in Rome in 443 BC. However honourable the origins of its name, censorship itself is today generally regarded as a relic of an unenlightened and much more oppressive age.....more

Global Economy
The main potential risks
[SHAZIA MEHMOOD KHAN]

It is predicated that five major risks may threaten the global economy in the days to come. Out of five major potential risks, three belong/rest on the United States of America. Sustainable sharp increases in the current-account deficit leading to a crash of the dollar; a budget profile that is out of control due to increasing allocation of funds for military and fight against global terrorism and an outbreak of trade protectionism especially against China and EU are the major potential risks to US which will ultimately badly affect the global economies. The continued and sustained economic growth of China, which faces a possible hard landing from its recent overheating, is also a potential future risk/threat to global economy. The fifth and the last not the least is that oil prices could rise to $60-70 per barrel even without a major political or terrorist disruption, and much higher with one.

Most of these risks reinforce or interconnected each other. Further oil shocks as expected or projected; a dollar collapse and a soaring American budget deficit along with rising interest rates would all generate much higher inflation. A sharp dollar decline would increase the likelihood of further oil price rises. It is also estimated that larger budget deficits will produce larger American trade deficits, and thus more protectionism and dollar vulnerability. Occurrence of any one of the five risks could substantially reduce world/global economic growth. If two or three, let alone all five, were to occur in combination then they would radically reverse the global outlook.....more

The ghost of Kargil
How to banish Kargil from our lives.
[MUHAMMAD MAHBOOB QADIR ]

For the sake of developing a meaningful discussion, let us agree that the course of history and the flow of time can neither be stopped nor reversed. That their evidence cannot be destroyed and finally both do not prefer any favourites. The analogy ends here with a major difference. While time is impersonal and relatively universal, history is a record of mankind and therefore earthbound. History is also sensitive to disrespect shown towards her precepts and inflicts horrible punishment upon default. Pages of the world chronicle are filled with events that stand out as milestones in the history of nations. Events, which by themselves were so powerful or were prim e catalysts for a chain of subsequent powerful events that changed the course of nations and civilizations. Assassination of the Grand Duke of Austria brought about World War I. Invention of steam engine and gunpowder wrapped up mighty Ottoman, Mughal and Chinese Empires allowing Britain, France and Holland to colonise more than half of the world during 18th and 19th Centuries. Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour during World War II not only eventually saw Japan's military might humbled but a permanent US military presence in Asia-Pacific. Congress's refusal to grant Indian Muslims the right to a separate electorate within the Indian Union in 1940 firmly set the course for creation of Pakistan. Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 foretold the eventual collapse of the gasping Soviet Empire. And finally destruction of World Trade Towers on 11th September 2001 qualitatively changed military-diplomatic norms of powerful nations, pitting a Christian superpower against an embittered and confused Muslim World almost irreversibly; unipolarity standing out in all its stark insensitivity....more

Enlightened Moderation
present-day muslims need to come to terms with the basic premise of our religion, moderation.
[SAEED WAHLAH]

Finding themselves between the devil and the deep sea, most of the Muslim countries presently are caught in crossfire of terror and counter terror. Many royal, military and non-representative governments of Muslim countries are keeping their heads down, trembling and crawling in the trenches, directionless, in a hope to eventually move out of the rein of fire. But the front seems to be too long in space and time and too strong in fire and fury. The trenches are shallow, muddy and zigzag. Rising population, poverty, illiteracy, unemployment and non-participatory politics are breeding ground for crime, violence and terrorism. Rising pressures from the sole world power of the post cold war period to curb the terrorist threat is like a hanging sword. Political expediency and survival instincts of the princes', kings and rulers in these countries are insurmountable barriers. More importantly, self-analysis and self-criticism normally precede self-correction and self-direction. Enlightened moderation is like peak of the Mount Everest. It is not only difficult climbing there; it is extremely challenging to stay there for long. But are there many options available?....more

Leadership qualities
Gen Sir Frank Messervy
The various freedoms and how they are being enjoyed by different people in different regions.
[M A GILANI]

Introduction
General Sir Frank Messervy KCSI KBE CB DSO and Bar was the first C-in-C of the Pakistan Army from 14th August 1947 to 10th February 1948. He was a daring and dashing leader, whose creed was always to move to the sound of guns. He lived with danger throughout most of the 4½ years during the 2nd Great War.

He was GOC 7th Division and Commander 4 Corps in Burma during the 2nd Great War (from Nov '43 to Nov '45) and I, as a young officer, had the great honour of serving in both the formations. During this period on few occasions I met him, heard him narrating his exploits in the various battles of Middle East and saw him meeting troops and watching battalion and brigade attacks. The troops under his command trusted him completely for his inspiring courage and brilliant leadership, his humanity and his constant identification of himself with fighting soldiers....more

Turkey's quest for EU membership
Whether Turkey will ever get the membership
[ANSAR MAHMOOD BHATTI]

The outgoing European Commission, in its recent report, has recommended opening of accession negotiations with Turkey though with the toughest conditions. This particular report was long awaited since it was ultimately going to pave the way for Turkey's European Union membership. It's not an easy job nevertheless. It involves a plethora of intricacies and a bunch ifs and buts which are likely to put the Turkish leadership in extremely hot waters, in the coming days.

In December 2002, the European Council agreed that during its December 2004 meeting, it would decide on the basis of the Commission's report and recommendations whether Turkey complies with the Copenhagen political criteria. The European Council also then decided that if Turkey did comply with the criteria, accession negotiations would begin without any further delay....more

Time to strengthen the Regional security groups
It is time to concentrate on the region's security perceptions.
[FAUZIA QURESHI]

“We must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools.”
- Martin Luther King, Jr -
on Brotherhood.

Today we don't live in a more secure international system as we had expected after the breakdown of the bi-polar world. Neither peace nor stability were the legacy of the end of the Cold War. The Bush administration's predilection for unilateral action and its doctrine of preventive war poses a profound challenge to the existing principle of collective security. The international community faces both intra- and inter-state conflicts. The question arises as to how to face these new threats? What should the states do? Is it time to turn to regional security groups and do away with the United Nations? Will concerns about sovereignty in the developing world remain a barrier to regional and inter-regional security co-operation?....more

Terrorism in Pakistan
The emerging trends in this potentially dangerous development.
[THE MILITARY ANALYST]

Introduction
Terrorism was a virtually unheard of phenomenon in Pakistan till the late 1970s and early 1980s when coincident with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the US sponsored Jihad against the Soviets resulted in the religious elements in Pakistan's NWFP Province being pushed into the forefront of the armed struggle. The large-scale provision of US supplied weapons was instrumental in the militarization of the religious groups and elements in Pakistan. Such widespread and lasting was this militancy and its impact that even today, after a lapse of almost a decade and a half, Pakistan is still confronted with religious militancy and terrorism that can be traced back to her support of the US sponsored anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan.....more

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