Dear Readers,
A year ago the President and Chief
of Army Staff (COAS) Pakistan Army Gen Pervez Musharraf,
gave what amounted to a solemn pledge to the nation
in a prime time TV address that he would retire as
COAS on or before Dec 31, 2004. This televised promise
came about because of an understanding reached with
the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) to break the impasse
on the 17th Amendment to the Constitution. Because
of late Gen Ziaul Haq's famous "90 day commitment"
which he did not keep (and had no intention of keeping),
the public suspects the credibility of military rulers
making promises of voluntary exit. By not taking off
his uniform as promised, the President has broken
his pledge and now has a credibility problem. However,
in the pure technical sense Pervez Musharraf is on
firm ground in not adhering to his volunteered commitment
in the prevailing internal and external circumstances,
particularly since his MMA partners in last December's
agreement on the 17th Amendment only partly adhered
to their reciprocal commitments. The President should
have refrained from making any public announcement,
then again Pervez Musharraf would have been on far
more firmer ground if during his televised address
to the nation he would have made his doffing of the
uniform conditional on the MMA keeping to their side
of the bargain. Since he did not do so then, to bring
up that as a condition now makes his position rather
ambiguous, if not untenable. This country pays short
shrift to lame-ducks and retirees, given the extenuating
circumstances I do not see how he can ever take off
his uniform. Pervez Musharraf is a popular leader
but he is not a popularly elected leader, his staying
on as President (and popular leader) is dependant
upon his continuing as COAS Pakistan Army. Popular
leaders became only "leaders" once they
vacate the post they occupy, nobody worships the setting
sun. Pervez Musharraf would be committing leadership
"hara-kiri" by leaving the COAS post, since
very few people in their right minds commit hara-kiri,
why should he leave the COAS post? Pervez Musharraf
is riding a tiger and quite happy about not getting
off the tiger, since the world (which comprises the
US and its Coalition partners in the "war against
terrorism") is quite happy with him running a
"uniformed democracy", why gamble with things
contrary?
The world, the US-led one that is,
has differing standards at different times for different
countries with respect to democracy, we presently
fit into the category in the type of democracy presently
in practice in Pakistan, albeit mainly for both national
and international security reasons. Logically, Pervez
Musharraf's continuity as Head of State depends upon
the security environment. To be logical is not to
be always right, but then we are past-masters at frequently
sacrificing morality at the altar of necessity. For
the benefit of readers I am reproducing an article
"Pakistan's Security Environment" written
for the Pakistan Supplement of the GLOBAL AGENDA,
the official magazine of World Economic Forum.
For a country that lives on the cutting
edge of terrorism, Pakistan has a remarkably good
internal security situation. The number of terror
attacks in Pakistan are nowhere in number and ferocity
one would expect in the prevailing circumstances.
With Afghanistan and the festering problem of Kashmir
as root causes of militancy, Pakistan would expect
to have a bad security environment, the reality is
far divorced from perception, in sharp contrast to
adverse media vibes we generate in the world. In fact
most of the time the “TRAVEL ADVISORIES”
of various countries to their citizens would be amusing
if they were not so damaging to Pakistan’s image
in the world.
Three concentric spheres support
terrorism in Pakistan. Within the inner-most circle
are the terrorists themselves, they are in turn surrounded
by a second wider circle of direct supporters, planners,
commanders, religious personalities, etc, who serve
as the terrorism infrastructure. The third circle
is of religious, educational and welfare organizations,
operating mostly through mosques, madrassahs and other
religious establishments. The primary target of our
security forces is the second circle, not only to
get to the source but that is the only way to break
this evil chain. Because of their rhetoric most muslims
(and by extension Pakistan), inadvertently become
part of it by association. For successfully fighting
terrorism the ruling regime had to ensure that the
public get unrestricted access to independent media.
This put a stop to rumours and speculation.
The dangers permeating every level
of our society once threatened to overwhelm our inner
boundaries, viz (1) Sectarianism and religious extremism
(2) Ethnic Violence (3) Poverty and Corruption (4)
War against Drugs and (5) Police re-organization.
While we do face multiple external threats, Pakistan
has successfully taken steps to guard against these.
With multi-layered security apparatus in place the
situation has stabilized over the past few years.
The Army has successfully moved to
eliminate the clear nexus between guerilla warfare
and terrorism in South Waziristan, the present area
of crisis. A largely rocky and barren country with
walled tribal villages, each with one or more watchtowers,
South Waziristan has poor soil, with only small patches
of cultivation around the villages. The main source
of survival for the locals has been banditry and smuggling
i.e. till the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979.
Both North and South Waziristan thereafter became
staging areas for the Afghan Mujahideen, this spurred
some economic activity, and even sparse affluence.
Over the years some of the foreign Mujahideen settled
down permanently with the Mahsuds and the Waziris.
With the advent of US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan
and the rout of their Taliban mentors, there was an
fresh influx of foreign fighters as elements of al-Qaeda
found a safe haven in this no-go (self-imposed by
the government) territory, operating at will on both
sides of the Durand Line. Wana became an ideal recruiting
ground from among the youth of the area. However concerted
action by the Pakistan Armed Forces has eliminated
most guerilla hideouts, driving the militants out
of the area, only a handful hardcore remain.
Despite being without adequate resources
or even a technological base Pakistan had at first
tended at to react to terrorist threat rather than
pre-empt possible threats, with the help of US and
other countries we now give real-time recognition
to threat perception. The technological gap is being
covered by “leapfrogging” over certain
stages, resources are being provided to acquire the
necessary technology. Faced with a myriad number of
possibilities, a comprehensive defence plan has been
made to, viz (1) identify the threat/s (2) make a
detailed analysis of their potential and (3) work
out priorities in evaluating ways and means of countering
these threats. With the help of the US we have been
successfully for countering terrorism by viz (1) detecting
people organized in terrorist activity and identifying
them, and have the capability of simultaneously monitoring
their movements (2) detect the supply sources of explosive
materials likely to be used (3) mobilizing one’s
defence capability in recognizing and countering specific
threats (4) mobilizing adequate and coordinated intelligence
capability, utilizing both human and electronic intelligence
(5) focusing on air, sea, rail and road travel as
potential terror targets and (6) guarding the country’s
frontiers, includes monitoring and observation of
thousands and thousands of miles of borders. Pakistan
has mobilized its security forces adequately by viz
(1) by having a Crisis Management Cell (CMC) to develop
adequate intelligence capability to respond to not
only to constant queries but update the requirements
from the data available, (2) coordinating and cooperating
with world institutions like the UN, Interpol, etc
for monitoring and preventing the use of non-conventional
terrorist matter and (3) increasing our monitoring
of nuclear facilities by techno-advanced technological
means and stopped the clandestine shipping of fissile
materials. Intelligence is being processed immediately
and shared among those who need it on the frontline
of the “war against terrorism”. During
wartime, and we are at war, Pakistan has mobilized
its best available talent and resources irrespective
of political leaning and beliefs. Intelligence has
been made available to the leaders in quality more
than quantity for quick decision-making, it being
understood that absolutely perfect intelligence may
not be attainable.
To aid the law enforcement agencies,
there have been a number of developments, including
the flourishing of private security as an industry.
There has been unprecedented growth with over 250,000
personnel employed in over 200 private security companies.
At least 50 of these companies have their office in
one or more provinces, as well as in Azad Kashmir.
While armed robbery and kidnapping for ransom were
the major problems in the early 90s, private security
companies are now employed by foreign missions and
multi-nationals primarily as an anti-terrorism measure.
Along with physical guarding and movement of cash
by armoured vehicles, integrated security is primarily
electronic-based with satellite vehicle tracking (SVT),
radio (and now GSM-based) alarm systems (RAS) and
digital CCTV available easily. In fact Pakistan has
state-of-the-art capability which it is exporting
to other countries. One of the companies of the Pathfinder
Group along with two sister companies is the only
fully integrated private security group in the world,
the private security companies have an umbrella association
called the All Pakistan Security Agencies Association
(APSAA), this functions to solve the problems of member
companies and liaise with the government and law enforcement
agencies (LEAs).
The rules of international law have
changed after every world war, in Pakistan we have
taken cognizance of our domestic situation and amended
the laws to suit the prevailing circumstances. Terrorism
is being fought in Pakistan in a broad front, targeting
all those who are not only connected directly to the
perpetrators but all those who indirectly give sustenance.
The law and order situation is far better than the
world perception, foreign direct investment (FDI)
has taken cognizance of this by increasing dramatically.
M. Ikram Sehgal
