Dear Readers,
If we were to state that this nation is in the worst crisis it has faced since 1971, it would be an understatement. As this goes into print the President is to take off his uniform before he takes oath for another term. Everyone and his uncle seems to believe that he will not leave the COAS post, and I have been assailed by friend and foe alike in stating otherwise. My premise is that the man has made a commitment and it is only a few days before we find out whether he will keep the promise, he understands the consequences to his credibility of resiling from it. However, if the judges who have taken the oath under PCO-2 are to be tried for treason as some lawyers are demanding, then the same applies for those who took the oath under PCO-1. Let us go back to the position obtaining before PCO-1 and let those judges who refused the oath of office under PCO-1 come back to the Supreme Court. For the benefit of readers, I am re-publishing my article "BACK FROM THE FUTURE".
On Monday Nov 5, 2007 rumours about a military coup swept through the country like wildfire, they were false. Paraphrasing Mark Twain "the rumours about Musharraf's exit were greatly exaggerated". Military men (and not necessarily generals) in third world countries see themselves as potential saviours of the nation, very few get the opportunity (or have the courage) to translate their dreams into reality. For every successful military coup, many more have been failures. Coups only succeed in Pakistan, or have succeeded uptil now, because they are led by the Commander-in-Chief (C-in-C) Army (Ayub Khan and Yahya Khan), and after the nomenclature of the Army Chief was changed by the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) (Ziaul Haq and Pervez Musharraf). One can well understand why Musharraf is reluctant to give up the COAS post, the rumours could well have come true.
While all of us welcomed the restoration of Chief Justice (CJ) Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry to his office and era of the judicial activism it heralded, there was concern and disquiet in the public about the SC's orders to re-open Lal Masjid and free those terrorists caught in the bloody confrontation. In restoring "the rule of law" the Honourable Justices unfortunately brought us perilously close to conditions of anarchy. The Supreme Court (SC) and the Sindh High Court (SHC) were intent on waging legal guerilla warfare through the "suo moto" mechanism in taking over the functions of government, in fact came close to paralyzing part of the government machinery. While one does not condone the high-handedness of the Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs), being increasing dragged into court the rank and file were bewildered as to which authority to answer to. On the one hand one cherished the judicial activism restoring the fundamental rights of citizens, the conservative streak was appalled at the judiciary running berserk in encroaching upon the executive privilege of governance. Already beset by a myriad number of problems, the confrontation between the executive and judiciary evoked deep apprehension among the populace. As if on cue NEWSWEEK called Pakistan "the most dangerous place on Earth"! A master of timing, Pervez Musharraf grabbed the opportunity afforded by the circumstances to fulfil his personal ambition of extending his rule. In a world driven by media-influenced perceptions the term "martial law" is not kosher anymore, it is camouflaged in Pakistan by the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO). Successfully used in the past, it was successfully used again to dump recalcitrants off the superior judiciary. One small step by Musharraf, the PCO is one giant step into the past for Pakistan!
The atrocious situation in FATA remains generally removed from public attention, being a frequent destination of choice for domestic tourists Swat is very much in the public eye. There has been consternation among the past few weeks public which is increasingly skeptical about the efficacy (and success thereof) of the "war against terrorism". The horrific Karachi blast (and various bomb blasts in the country before and after Oct 18) did amount to "casus belli" for imposing emergency. Musharraf was well on his way to restoring democracy albeit with a power-sharing arrangement, the judiciary had other ideas. Boxed legally into a Catch-22 on the uniform issue, Pervez Musharraf is not the sort to roll over and play dead, he is lethal when he seems down and out. His past history is replete with calculated risks, and some not so calculated. To his credit he did try patience in the face of grave provocation, and when that failed Musharraf did what he is very good at, carry the fight to the opposition. The PCO-created vacancies on the various Courts are being rapidly filled by those more amenable to "necessity". Instead of delaying the process by further prevarication, one should pragmatically accept the situation as a fait accompli and get on with it. It will be quite a miracle if the legal challenge to his fighting the election in uniform is not overturned by the newly constituted SC. Once over that technicality Pervez Musharraf should take oath of office as President, on or before Nov 15, and in keeping with affidavit to the SC he should take off his uniform before taking the oath.
Having ensured his survival, Musharraf's objectives are (or should be) to viz (1) contain the protests from spinning out of control (2) salvage the image of the Army which has taken quite a beating and (3) redeem his own image which has taken a greater beating domestically and internationally. Without getting provoked (or seeming to succumb) by the "demands" being made internationally and internally, the order of business will be to immediately mandate a Caretaker with no alignments or preferences, individually or collectively, to carry out a free and fair elections within 60 to 90 days of the dissolution of the Assemblies. Constructive engagement with major political parties for a genuinely neutral Caretaker set-up will be the acid test for ensuring credibility of the electoral process.
While the "war against terrorism" is unfortunately necessary there are sensitivities as to the "modus operandi" to conduct such a war against one's own people. The US postponing/cancelling scheduled talks on defence matters gives us a convenient out, all military cooperation must be suspended till discussions remove the differences. We need to put on display the little self-respect we have left! While being grateful to the US for the generous military aid they cannot dictate to us the conduct of the war. The Army's presence in FATA has compromised traditional tribal authority. With bases as static targets to attack at will, the logistics and routes thereof even more vulnerable, the militants have an upper hand. Far from being on the offensive, the Army is on the defensive. Moving out of FATA immediately, the Army should position heli-borne forces in the vicinity. The tribals must be re-entrusted their historical responsibility of defending the country's frontiers, and to maintain the peace in their areas. Movement should be allowed only on some arterial roads, manned and unmanned aerial vehicles being used for monitoring purposes. If and when the tribals fail this commitment, the Federal Government has the right to interdict, intercept and destroy the militants. The Army must operate from a position of strength, power is what the tribals understand. In Swat the demography does not have a tribal structure as in FATA, there is no substitute to direct action to eliminate the militant threat. The mullahs moved into the vacuum in the valley created by years of bureaucratic lethargy, neglect and incompetence, replacing the benign autocracy of the "Wali of Swat". A Referendum must ascertain public desire about enforcement of Shahriah in the affected districts, local elders working through "Jirgas" to ensure the unconditional laying down of weapons and restoring the rule of law. FATA (and other backward mountainous areas) need meaningful economic initiatives as a dire necessity.
Ensuring a transparent and free electoral exercise, the Army must recede from the affairs of the country, not only in word but also in deed. Whatever semantics one indulges in, at the end of the day we need this much-maligned Army to hold this country together. Bangladesh model, anyone?

M. Ikram Sehgal