AFTERMATH OF THE
NUCLEAR FEVER

Former DG ISI Lt Gen (Retd) JAVED NASIR examines the unfolding scenario after the nuclear fever subsides

Now that both India and Pakistan have recovered from the nuclear fever - they must face stark realities - they cannot close their eyes - it is too late. There were celebrations and jubilation on both sides, neither of the two realised that they would be the sitting ducks and that death will embrace them with the suddenness and speed and in numbers they never perceived even by the wildest stretch of their imaginations.

The complete command and control structure of the countries - the whole cities will be paralysed - The two countries don’t have even enough vultures to eat the carrion of the millions that will die, what to talk of their disposal and burial. The stench of the rotten bodies will keep away even Mother Teresa and Edhi’s volunteers to recover those who might still have some signs and chances of life. They will most probably die of stench and the overdose of residual radiation.

I intend covering only two aspects in this article; who out of India and Pakistan is more likely to initiate the nuclear war if ever this ultimate madness is put to reality (God forbid) and in the second part I will expose the unpreparedness of both countries for a nuclear war and the consequences both have to face if they do not come to a sensible mutual understanding but instead decide to follow the mass suicidal course and at the end I will propose the only salvation and the course left open to both India and Pakistan.

Who will be the initiator of the suicidal Nuclear War (Hypothetically speaking)

Nuclear weapons are friendly to none. They can neither read nor see. The jargon that we have only defensive nuclear weapons is garbage. Nuclear weapons are meant for mass killing; hundreds of thousands with each blast instantly with thousands more with its residual radiation. Those deformed and crippled are in addition. Who is more likely to initiate this mass killing. Once started, casualties will be on both sides. Neither of the two can eliminate other’s weapons in toto in the first strike, both sides will have sufficient nuclear weapons left to kill millions.

20% of India’s total population is Muslim. For reasons of security they are concentrated in big cities where their percentage further rises to between 25% - 30%. Up to 10% are Sikhs. These large cities are the prime targets of nuclear weapons if ever there is a nuclear war. No matter which one is hit up to 30% of the casualties therefore will be Muslims and Sikhs. From this view point alone this will be the single most important restraining factor on Pakistan not only to initiate a nuclear war but even to plan one. Such is not the case with India. The Hindu population in Pakistan is not even 2% in the major cities of Sindh and even these are scattered. Their number is almost negligible in cities of other provinces. Apart from this factor, closest to Pakistan on the Indian side is Punjab which is predominantly Sikh and Pakistan has exceptionally good relations with the Sikhs who have been along with Muslims common victims of the Indian injustices and excesses and as such 25% of Pakistan’s strike area is completely ruled out for a nuclear strike.

Islam forbids killing of innocent citizens, in particular children, women and the old, how can any government in Pakistan violate Allah’s commandment enmass. One only needs to go through the bellicose statements of the BJP leaders, threatening to undo Pakistan demanding through ultimatums to vacate Azad Kashmir. They genuinely believed that Zial-ul-Haq’s policy of ambiguity was a hoax. They were sure Pakistan didn’t possess a nuclear device and it was for this reason that they went for the 11 May blasts convinced that Pakistan could not reciprocate. That India’s stance made a somersault as a whole on Pakistan’s defensive and reactive explosions on the 28 May, therefore, is an admission of India’s totally wrong assessment of Pakistan’s nuclear capability.

Despite unjustifiable increases every year in Indian defence budget over the last two decades, Pakistan has been maintaining minimal defence forces on the conventional side with a stagnant defence budget. Any further reduction by Pakistan will therefore result in capitulation of the conventional deterrence very early in the battle which will enforce the commitment of the non conventional response. India’s declared defence budget for 1998 is Rs. 500 billion. This does not include allocations for pensions, nuclear and space research (actually being spent on nuclear weaponising and missiles), border roads, strategic communications and satellites, chemical industry (actually for chemical warfare), the coastal survey etc, the space programme, second line forces 60% of which are actually deployed in Kashmir. A very modest estimate will put this hidden allocation at 100 billion rupees, bringing the total to 600 billion Rs. which converted into Pakistani rupees equal 720 billion which exceeds Pakistan’s total national budget of 606 billion rupees. In fact India’s 14% increase in defence budget for 1998, which was announced after the Indian blasts far exceeds Pakistan total defence budget. It is pertinent to point out that no major weapon system has been introduced in Pakistan armed forces in the last two decades. The capital outlay by India for the nuclear submarine alone will be over 200 billion rupees from next year. India already boasts of the largest blue water fleet in the Indian ocean - the only navy in the region to possess an aircraft carrier. The very purpose of having a nuclear submarine (with its very extended endurance to remain in the high seas and under water) is to arm it with nuclear warheads which are a sure guarantee for a second strike. This factor alone shows India’s malafide intentions. Other than the Russians and Washington Post no one will buy the Indian rational for the nuclear-powered submarine which is that when USS Enterprise steamed into the Bay of Bengal in 1971, ostensibly to support Pakistan in its war against India, the Indian leadership decided, it was time to build a nuclear powered submarine of its own. This is nothing more than a scam. It is an open secret that covertly US connived with India in the break up of Pakistan, move of the ‘Enterprise’ was only a deceptive measure to cheat Pakistan and the Indians knew this as India was a party to this conspiracy against Pakistan.

The West has miserably failed to correctly assess the Indian mentality. We and those who live in this region know how cold blooded and ruthless ‘Hindu’ becomes in outlook and treatment to smaller communities and nations. To Indian leadership only unquestioned obedience in the form of a client state - where every major policy will be decided in accordance with India’s national interests is acceptable. The Indian leadership therefore, has no credibility. Their is a story of broken pledges. Their stands have all been contradictory - In the case of Junagarh, Mannawadar and Hyderabad, they ridiculed as to how a Muslim ruler with Hindu majority population could decide on annexation with Pakistan. In Kashmir they took the totally opposite stand that the ruler (non Muslim) of Kashmir (which was and is predominantly Muslim) had signed an article of accession to India. It was the Indians who had gone to the UN, and to all the UN resolutions the Indian Government is a signatory. How can they back out? They insist on Simla accord and want this issue to remain bilateral because they feel any third party, if involved will know the truth and expose Indian hypocrisy.

India has a population of nearly 1000 millions with its industrial base spread all over the country. Pakistan has a population of only 130 million and its industrial base is limited to just 4-5 places which account for nearly 90% of Pakistan’s entire Industry. India, therefore, has much greater capacity to absorb devastation of a nuclear war and recover from it than Pakistan - a nuclear war will therefore completely devastate rendering it into a non viable entity.

From all the above it is crystal clear that Pakistan will neither initiate nor will ever like to go to a nuclear war. On the contrary, knowing the Hindu mind - the Hindus who despite overwhelming majority were ruled for over 1000 years by a handful of Muslims, it is this national humiliation that they would like to wash and erase and this they will do so with a vengeance. The irrefutable argument to support this view point is that the basic facts in the history text books in Indian schools and colleges have all been distorted, twisted and fabricated. Even today pre-partition history books are available which give the factual position which is totally different from what Indians have falsified. The construction of Babri Mosque at Ayudiah at Ram’s birth place is a complete fabrication with no supporting historical evidence at all. There is no earthly reason why a mosque should have been built at a site where a Hindu temple existed when the entire area around was in the form of open spaces.

Pakistan was already suffering from a major strategic imbalance in the conventional forces, thanks to US policy which has been discriminatory and insensitive to Pakistan’s very genuine security concerns. The US Policy was flawed and suffered from major inherent defects. US singled out Pakistan immediately after the Afghan crisis was over. On one hand IT IMPOSED SANCTIONS AGAINST, ITS 11 YEAR LONG WAR ALLY THE ONE WHO FOUGHT ITS PROXY WAR, ON THE MERE ASSUMPTION THAT PAKISTAN PERHAPS POSSESSED THE NUCLEAR BOMB. ON THE OTHER HAND IT RELEASED SUPER COMPUTERS, BANNED NUCLEAR GADGETORY TO INDIA TO HELP DEVELOP THE NEUTRON BOMB.

By singling out Pakistan for the punitive measures, it reinforced Pakistan’s fears that it cannot depend on outside help and promises for its defence. Despite all this Pakistan would have never carried out the blasts on its own. We lost this opportunity in early nineties. In hindsight that was a blessing in disguise, had we done so the sanctions and the checks would have been far too severe. The well which was dug in Chagai area for the underground test was finally capped with heavy hearts by the team of our scientists who after the sacking of Nawaz Sharif Government in 1993, thought that the lid may never be removed. However, Allah had different plans, it is always His plan that succeeds, Allah has not only feathered the caps of our scientists with glorious success but has done so in a manner which no one ever imagined. Pakistan’s image got an unprecedented boost, with world opinion turning in favour of Pakistan’s blast as inevitable and fully justified. The nuclearisation of the sub continent, internationalised once again the almost dead issue of Kashmir. Even diehard Indian supporters feel that this issue be resolved immediately by India and Pakistan. This is the main flash point. The present status of nuclear weapon state that has been bestowed upon Pakistan is therefore, by default and not by design Pakistan was left with no option and was literally dragged into this status purely in self defence. After Allah, India and US have turned out to be Pakistan’s major benefactors. We in particular should be grateful to Mr. Vajpayee, Advani, Fernandes, Farooq Abdullah and the other Indian leaders mostly from BJP who forgetting norms of diplomacy and etiquette of dealing with other countries treated Pakistan as pigmy, a non entity with no right to exist. Starting with threats of dire consequences and demanding vacation of Azad Kashmir, Advani and company’s rhetorics turned into bellicose statements of undoing and annihilating Pakistan and restoring the pre-partition status of mother India. BJP leaders were clamouring that they have fulfilled their election promises and have already ordered that their nuclear programme be weaponised. The Prithivis will very shortly be armed with nuclear warheads.