CTBT the only solution

Editorial Note: DEFENCE JOURNAL respectfully does not agree with most of the viewpoints made by the worthy author, Col (Retd) I HASSAN. However, in consonance with the spirit of free expression of ideas we are printing his views, we are doing so to stimulate new ideas on this issue

It is the forte of the Chief Executive of Pakistan to leap before looking. Each time he does so, it comes as a surprise that he falls into an unimaginable chasm. If it was he himself alone, it would matter not but being the chief executive of Pakistan he lands us in a quagmire.

He seems a master of ad-hocism. In the matter of exploding a nuclear bomb, the gaping chasm was visible to all. Before it was exploded, my young son from Australia wrote should they explode it, the IMF will turn the lights off. Our worthies, however, did not see it or deluded themselves into believing that since the IMF lending was in the pipeline, it would continue to flow. According to them the next tranche war definitely in the bag and with that they intended to service the debt Ñ $30 billion of it.

It came as a surprise to all our Micawbers (MICAWBERS) that the lights were turned off instantly. Panic stations ! Go rushing to Muslim capitals, not with a begging bowl but with an outstretched shirt front. And prevail upon ordinary labourers of Britain, who hardly know how to make end meet, to plug the gap. None of these could have been effective. In desperation this was not realised or accepted. Rhetoric is all that mattered. Eating grass began to appear to be impractical particularly for those who are so accustomed to Nan and Kebabs. Consequently, the first chest beating and bravado soon gave place to panic stations. An emissary was sent off to Washington besides the Foreign Secretary who was already there. It was not thought out what this emissary would do or achieve. Since he had been posted to Washington previously as an ambassador, he was looked upon as a saviour even though all the US players in Washington of his days had long departed and all he was able to crack was the Deputy Secretary of State, Talbott, who was to have come here anyway and the supplicant could talk to him direct. There was no need of going to a Pir - the ex-Foreign Minister.

What is extremely frightening is that none of the politicians realise what a nuclear bomb is and what it does. They seem to regard it as a super-bang, a great ‘patakha’that will frighten the recipient out of his wit. They do not realise that it achieves total and indiscriminate destruction . It is the duty of those at the helm of affairs to educate the people as to what an atomic device is so that they do not go about rejoicing with ‘laddus’in their mouths. Never has there been a case where a man has gone to the scaffold with a ‘laddu’in his mouth !

First, therefore, we must start teaching Mr Nawaz Sharif that if there is a nuclear bomb dropped in Lahore / Islamabad, that he himself would be dead, his Raiwind estate would be reduced to ashes, his father, brother and all others would be dead and all the billions gathered by him will be of little avail. The same will apply to all the other cabinet members, politicians et al. What they must realise is that there is just no escape from it.

Just as they have realised after exploding that they have landed themselves into a cul de sac, from which there at least is a way out, once a nuclear attack takes place, there is no way out. Everything and everyone will be dead and nothing will work.

What is surprising and extremely alarming is that even soldiers do not know or understand what a nuclear bomb does or how it will be used. One general has written that neither India nor Pakistan has hit indiscriminate target in the couple of skirmishes that they have undertaken in the past and from this he has inferred that they will not do so in future. This is true as far as it goes. Fighting the last war when the next comes, is an exercise in futility. Furthermore, a nuclear bomb by its unimaginable destructive power, uncontrolled, is ispo facto indiscriminate and because one strike can encompass many hundreds of square miles over which area everything would be destroyed, to aim it at a specific target is out of the question. Is it a wonder that it is called a weapon of man destruction.

The only specific target that an attacker would select would he command centres such as GHQ, Federal Government, Provincial Government HQs and Corps HQs etc. The fact that our defenders do not seem to understand this elementary aspect of the bomb is indicated by the recent scrambling of PAF fighter aircraft over Kahuta to protect the uranium enrichment plant when an attack was perceived to be coming. An attacker is not willing to waste a bomb on that. Further he is not willing to send aircraft to achieve that objective when he can do that with missiles, safely and accurately.

This display of ineptitude both by the government and the armed forces is harrowing.

Similar to the belief that sanctions would not hurt (they have by Golly!) there is a belief that Pakistan can lob a few nuclear bombs on India to bring that country to it knees. The fact that such an act would be tantamount to obliterating Pakistan in ‘toto’ is not taken into account.

There are two eventualities that can take place. First, because of Pakistan’s weak position even in the nuclear field, India apprehending an attack or becoming jittery, pre-emptively launches a nuclear attack on Pakistan with hydrogen bomb obliterating the whole country, making it impossible for Pakistan to retaliate, Ghauri missiles notwithstanding. The result would be that millions would be dead and the remainder maimed and affected by radio-activity. It is possible that both Mangla and Tarbela dams would burst, pouring out radio-active water all over the country. All organisations, government or army will be non-existent. Nothing will function. Food would be contaminated as will water. In fact those who survived will wish they were dead.

The second contingency, should Pakistan attack first. With Ghauri missile Pakistan can cover the whole of Gangetic plain and south upto the middle of the Deccan. India can, therefore, retreat to the South where Pakistan’s reach will be ineffective. With this depth, India can carry on the fight or retaliate from the south and bring about the total devastation of Pakistan as described in the first contingency. Pakistan does not have any depth to retreat to and counter-attack.

Having landed the country into a quandary without thinking through the consequences, the only way open to get out of the bind into which the country has been landed is to accept the fact that like Holland vis a vis Germany we are a small country and as Holland never dreams of competing with Germany, we should give up this senseless competition with India, mend our fences with her and strengthen our ties with whatever friends we can acquire. And above all, in order to get out of the distinction of being at the bottom of the heap in the world in credit rating (CCC) and being able to survive economically, it is imperative that we should sign CTBT and Non-Proliferation Treaty, give up grandiose notions and get down to the serious business of just remaining afloat.