(c) It is probable that China deployed some CSS-1 MRBMs, possibly as early as 1969, and a small number of CSS-2 IRBMs beginning in late 1971. Training of CSS-2 crews had begun in 1970. No firm evidence of such deployments is available. However, 1972 photography indicates the probably imminent deployment at two separate locations in China as well as the identification of CSS-1 ground support equipment at a military installation in the Peking Military Region. It is highly likely that if deployment has occurred, a major portion of the missiles are targeted against the Soviet Union.

(d) The Chinese have twice flight tested a third missile-system which appears to have sufficient range to provide full coverage of the USSR. It could be operational by 1974-75. Known as the Chingyu missile, it is liquid propelled and is a two-stage vehicle with the first stage probably incorporating the design and technology of the CSS-2. This missile could be intended for hardened site deployment. Additionally, on 10 September 1971 the Chinese tested at reduced range a missile having the characteristics of an ICBM capable of striking targets within the continental United States. Operational deployment of this missile is not expected to occur before 1975 or 1976. At the same time the Chinese recognize that both the US and the USSR are developing strategic defenses including antiballistic missiles (ABMs), which would be more effective against the limited Chinese nuclear attack capability than they would be against each other. Chinese countermeasures are not known at this time.

(e) The Chinese appear to be on the brink of establishing a tactical nuclear capability. The two most recent nuclear tests (CHIC 12, CHIC 13) are suggestions of a new phase of the PRC test programs. Both were low yield weapons. It appears possible that CHIC 13 was delivered by an F-9 fighter aircraft and may have been a proof test of a weapon. As with strategic nuclear weapons, the Chinese have given no indication of their doctrine for the deployment and employment of tactical nuclear weapons.

(f) During the late 1950s, China had become increasingly disturbed by perceived Soviet efforts to obtain arms control arrangements. On 21 January 1960, the Chinese National Peoples Congress passed a resolution stressing that China would not be bound by any disarmament except with its express consent and that it would accept no disarmament agreement unless it had participated in the negotiations. The Chinese were to continue to deprecate the tripartite nuclear test ban treaty and to stress the legitimate right of all peace-loving nations to develop armed forces for self defense. In 1963, Premier Chou En-lai enunciated for the first time the Chinese position that a summit conference on nuclear matters should include all the countries of the world, large and small. On the other hand, on 24 June 1966, the authoritative Observer, in the Peking Review, stated .... . . Chinese representatives definitely will not attend any world disarmament conference within or outside the United Nations...The Chinese Government will advocate the complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons when the US nuclear threatis countered.

(g) As recently as 7 August 1971, Peking rejected a Soviet proposal for the convening of a five-power conference, to include the US, the USSR, China, Great Britain, and France, to discuss the question of nuclear disarmament. In their statement, the Chinese said that they had consistently stood for the complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons and had declared on many occasions that under no circumstances will China be the first to use nuclear weapons. The statement went on to indicate that the PRC would at no time participate in a disarmament conference between the nuclear powers behind the backs of the nonnuclear countries. It urged Moscow and Washington to openly agree not to be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time or under any circumstances and called for the dismantling of all nuclear bases and stockpiled weapons on foreign soil. Following their admission to the United Nations, the Chinese again rejected a Soviet proposal for a world disarmament conference placed under consideration by the 26th United Nations General Assembly. The Peking representative reiterated the previously expressed Chinese objections to such a conference. There is some indication of growing Chinese interest in participating in multilateral arms negotiations through the Conference of the Committee on Disarmament (CCD). However, it is also evident that while the Chinese may be adopting a more pragmatic approach to the disarmament question, they have, as yet, shown no inclination to abandon any of their stipulated requirements essential to the convocation of a disarmament conference.

(h) The Chinese leaders are watching the US and USSR SALT exchange and are intently interested in the outcome as it could have an important impact on the PRC strategic program. The two areas of prime interest are those of ABM developments, which could counter the Chinese missile program, and the possibility of no agreement constraining missile development or deployment posed against the PRC. The arms limitation program will probably become more of an issue as the leadership changes in China and the worldwide political area develops. Since the end of the cultural revolution and more particularly since joining the UN in late 1971, the Chinese have begun to develop international relationships. If the Chinese were to participate in arms limitation talks, it would probably be through the UN channels.

(i) Since coming to power the Chinese communists have sought to insure the existence of friendly states on their borders. In addition, the Japanese are seen by Peking as representing the greatest potential threat of any power in Asia with the exception of the USSR.

Therefore, they are making strenuous efforts to discourage the rebirth of Japanese militarism, particularly acquisition of a nuclear capability. Concurrently, however, they are seeking Japan’s technological and industrial know-how to improve the PRC economy and industrial base, particularly as it relates to their defense posture. The Chinese would view as an extremely serious development any Japanese move into the nuclear arena and could see in it a need for expanding their own strategic offensive capability.

b. The evidence.

(1) Force deployments.

(a) By the latter part of 1969, the Chinese had recognized the Soviet threat as the most ominous and immediate as any confronting them. Since that time, China has augmented its ground and air force elements deployed in the military regions and air districts contiguous to the border. This augmentation has been modest and the bulk of the forces remain in a defensive posture considerably removed from the border.

(b) The Chinese Navy, while still essentially a coastal defense force is continuing to acquire more effective units and is beginning to deploy its units for longer operational periods and possibly to more extended ranges from the coast than at any time previously. The augmentation of the fleet with guided missile destroyers and destroyer escorts and with an increasing number of new attack submarines provides the Chinese with a blue water operational potential and the capability of seeking out and attacking enemy strategic naval forces at increasing distances from the Chinese mainland.

(c) During this period the Chinese air force underwent considerable modernization. Production of MIG-21s and the Chinese designed F-9, believed to be destined for a ground attack role, commenced and production of the MIG-19 was accelerated. Production of the TU-16 jet medium bomber and the IL-28 light jet bomber continued, also. Deployment of these aircraft to operational units occurred and the F-9 may have been the delivery vehicle for CHIC 13. Delivery of the TU-16/BADGER to the 4th Independent Regiment began and at present 32 of these aircraft are operational.

(d) It is believed that the Chinese have deployed in limited numbers the CSS-1 and CSS-2 surface missiles. Deployment could consist of from 15 to 30 CSS-1 launchers and 15 CSS-2 launchers. It is assumed that a large portion of such deployed missiles would be oriented against the Soviet Union. Regardless, the imminent deployment of surface-to-surface missiles (SSMs) is indicated in recent satellite photography. A probable SSM-related installation at Tienwei, 53 miles north of Kunming, was detected in photographs taken on 21 January. Another missile complex revealed in the 21 January photography was 11 nautical miles southwest of Kunming. A third SSM-related installation is located near Liuchingkou in north central China. Five miles to the northeast of Liuchingkou another SSM-associated facility has been detected. Facilities at Kunming in South China and Liuchingkou in northwestern China appear to be constructed for such operational deploy ment. A CSS-1 MRBM {600-nm range) with a three-megaton warhead deployed at Kunming could reach targets near the Vietnamese DMZ, in northern Thailand, and India east of Bangladesh. On the other hand, the most logical missile to be deployed at Kunming would be a CSS-2 IRBM, which would bring Taiwan, all of southeast Asia, and almost half of India within range. The inland location of Liuchingkou dictates that the CSS-2 IRBM be deployed there. The CSS-1 would cover only a small portion of Mongolia, while the CSS-2 would enable China to strike targets in the USSR, India, most of Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and South Korea.

(e) Ground support equipment identified with the CSS-1 system has recently been observed in satellite photography at a military facility in the Peking Military Region.

(f) A facility for producing the new Chinese designed SUUJI, a long range early warning radar has recently been identified at Sha Sheik. The new radar, which was first seen in 1971, greatly increases China’s early warning detection capability. It is believed that up to ten of these radars have been deployed to date.

(9) The Chinese appear to be well on the way to developing a nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine. The single GOLF class conventionally powered ballistic missile boat in the Chinese inventory is believed to be committed to a test platform role in developing a new missile of native design. Recent evidence of land based ejection facilities as well as construction of an off-shore tube launcher for underwater ejection tests has been detected.

The Chinese designed and built HAN class submarine has been undergoing sea trials since August 1971. If not yet operational it should be in the near future. The HAN class submarine is believed to be a nuclear powered torpedo attack boat. While this class boat will greatly improve the Chinese Navy’s distant defense capabilities against enemy nuclear equipped surface forces, one of its most significant features is that it will servce as a stepping stone in the development of a Chinese nuclear powered, submarine launched ballistic missile (SSBN) force. Such a force would enhance Peking’s assurance of an effective retaliatory capability, as well as strengthening her deterrent posture. It is estimated that China’s first SLBN could become operational in 1976.

(2) Exercises and training.

(a) The 1969 border conflict with the Soviet Union awoke the Chinese to the need for effective military training. Although ideological training remains number one in priority, military training has been upgraded to increase combat effectiveness. Combat readiness exercises are emphasized as well as bivouac training, live ammunition firing, sea-air, and land-air joint exercises, and long distance marches. Since 1969 the largest and probably the most extensive field and command post exercises ever conducted by the Chinese have taken place and this type of training is continuing.

(b) Following an intensified and apparently successful testing of the CSS-1 (MRBM) in 1966, little activity was observed relating to this system from the fall of 1966 through early 1969. During that time there were occasional exercises and possible indications of a few firings but no firm evidence of troop training. At the Wuvei missile school, no equipment was observed and some type of construction which had begun in 1956 continued at a very slow pace through at least 1969. The picture began to change in 1969-1970, however, as evidence accumulated of renewed MRBM activity. It now appears reasonably certain that troop training, involving live firings from Shuangchengtzu, and possibly classroom and missile handling instruction at Wuwei, was underway at least by the spring of 1969 if not by August 1968. Training at both Shuangchengtzu and Wuwei has continued up to the present. The first photographic evidence of CSS-2 training was obtained in November 1970. This training which is being conducted at Wuwei is continuing at this time. Live firings of this missile have been conducted from a launch facility at Wuchai, southwest of Peking, and possibly represented training exercises beginning in mid-1969.

(3) Command and control.

(a) Little definitive data are available on Chinese command and control procedures for nuclear weapons systems. Further, as the PRC nuclear force is just emerging as a viable force, little change in the Chinese command and control policy or strategy has been noted in response to international incidents or changes in strategy of other nuclear powers. However, the command and control communications systems for all services is being modernized with the increased use of radio printer equipment from the Ministry of National Defense level down to major field and territorial commands.

(b) In 1971, the main missile control authority moved from the test range at Shuangchengtzu to Sian in central China. This location would place this control authority in the middle of the known missile related activities. The location of probable SSM-related facilities near Kunming in southern China and Luichingchou in northcentral China would mean the new controller would be in the center of this missile activity. It is too early to predict the impact of this move on overall missile command and control procedures.

(4) Research and development. The PRC has conducted 14 nuclear weapons development tests during the period October 1964 to March 1972. The tests, designated chronologically as CHIC 1 through 14, involving four fission devices (the first, second, fourth, and thirteenth) one fission device (the nineth test), and eight thermonuclear devices, (data concerning CHIC 14 is insufficient to permit evaluation at this time). The first 11 PRC tests, CHICs 1-11, appeared to be directed at first devellopment of satisfactory low yield fission (l0s of KT) and high yield thermonuclear (3 MT) weapons. In this group of tests, two basic fission device/primary designs and one basic thermonuclear design have evolved from analysis of the test debris. The 12th - 14th tests appear to represent a new phase in the PRC nuclear weapons program. This phase may include basic studies of thermonuclear weapons phenomenology and tactical nuclear weapons development.

(5) Nuclear facilities and production. Since January 1971 a second set of new nuclear facilities have been identified. This included a gaseous diffusion plant at Chinkouho which is estimated to be able to produce more U-235 then the original plant at Lanchou. This new facility should begin partial production in late 1972 with full operation in late 1974. There is an additional reactor for production of plutonium at Kuangyuan and additional weapons grade material could enter the stockpile by 1974-75. Also, there is a possible new weapons fabrication facility located at Tzutung. All of these new facilities will give the PRC the capability of becoming the third largest nuclear power in the world. Based on their production capability, the Chinese could have as many as 120 thermonuclear warheads and 260 fission nuclear weapons in the stockpile at this time.

PEOPLES
REPUBLIC OF CHINA
NUCLEAR WEAPONS EMPLOYMENT
POLICY AND STRATEGY
ANNEX A: Force Development and Deployment

General
In general, the deployment and development of the Peoples Republic of China’s (PRC) armed forces in response to external crises has not been dramatic. A possible reason for China’s apparent irresponsiveness to external crisis may be simply that it has not had the flexibility or capability to respond to shifting external events, with internal considerations, such as the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, being far more demanding or limiting than external considerations.

Other than the movement by Chinese Communist ground forces to Korea (25 armies by mid-1952) and to the Fuchou coastal area (two armies in 1958 and two-plus armies in 1962), the ground force deployment of five armies from South China northward towards the Sino-Soviet border in late 1969-early 1970 represents the largest troop movement since the end of the China Civil War in 1950. Air and naval force deployments have remained relatively stable even in the face of apparent increased external threats. China has traditionally positioned the bulk of its forces in and around vital areas and along principal lines of communications, reflecting a defensive oriented military posture designed to cope with external threats from any direction.

To cope with the external nuclear threat, a campaign was initiated in 1959 to disperse and harden military installations. This was clearly a passive defensive strategy undertaken to reduce the effects of a nuclear attack. China’s lack of a nuclear capability dictated the necessity for such a campaign. In the early 1960’s, this campaign was expanded to include heavy industries. The attainment of a nuclear capability in 1964 did not lessen the pace of dispersal and hardening, and the war preparations campaign of 1969 broadened the scope of such activities to include civil defense measures to protect the population.

Likewise, external developments have generally had little effect on the development of the Chinese Communist missile program with the possible exception of the Sino-Soviet Border Dispute of 1969. Deteriorating border relations with the USSR as early as 1968 may have caused the Chinese to re-think their missile strategy for the deployment of an MRBM system. In August 1968, MRBM (CSS-1) troop training exercises were initiated at the Shuangchengtzu Missile Test Range(SCTMTR), and to-date there have been 14 confirmed crew-training firings. Although there are only two detected SS missile sites, near Kunming City in Yunnan Province, South China, the Chinese could have deployed 15 or more missiles to other undetected areas, possibly most confronting the USSR.

Other missile system developments may have been influenced by the border incidents of 1969 - IRBM (CSS-2) firings from Wuchai (at least 14 to 16 CSS-2 firings; possibly two of these in 1971 associated with training) and the Chingyu missile from Chingyu in November 1970 and 1971. The CSS-2 has many advantages including a greater range (1,500 nm) over the CSS-1 and it is likely to be deployed in much greater numbers with deployment possibly having begun in late 1971.

The Chingyu missile is believed to be a two-stage variant of the CSS-1 with a longer-range capability providing the Chinese with an improved strategic posture. This system with a range greater than 3,000 nm would reach targets in European Russia and give the Chinese a considerable degree of latitude in choosing deployment areas. The IOC for this system is not expected until 1974 or 1975.

The only missile that could be a direct threat against the US is a 6,000 nm-range ICBM. The Chinese flight tested a vehicle with ICBM characteristics to a reduced range in September 1971. The earliest possible IOC for an ICBM based on this vehicle would be late 1974, but more likely a year or two later.

Ground Force

In mid-1950, CCA strength was estimated to be 2.3 million. These personnel were organized into four Field Armies and one Military Area consisting of 19 Army Groups. A total of 69 Armies were assigned to these Army Groups.

In October-November 1950, the PRC intervened in the ongoing hostilities in Korea and by mid-1952 had deployed 25 armies to that theater. These units were drawn from throughout China and included some former Nationalist units. The PRC began to withdraw its forces from Korea in late 1952 and early 1953. By late 1954, only 11 Armies remained in Korea.

During the period of intervention in Korea, the CCA was reorganized along more conventional lines. Almost one-half (32 of 69) of the previously-designated Armies were deactivated during this period and their personnel absorbed by the remaining units. By October 1964, the deployment of Army-level units was as reflected in Table 1.

Between 1954 and 1960 the remaining 11 armies were withdrawn from Korea and redeployed principally to Northeast, North and East China areas, so that by 1 April 1950, the deployment of Army-level units was as depicted in Table 1.

TOTALS
37   36   34   34   34   34    34   36

As shown in Table 1 deployment of army-level units of the CCA remained rather surprisingly stable during the period following the Korean War despite the Taiwan situation, the Gulf of Tonkin incident, the US buildup in South Vietnam, the cultural revolution and the Sino-Soviet border disputes.

In 1971, two additional army-level units were formed bringing the total to 36. Some redeployment was noted and the number of armies in Peking MR increased by two. Army strength for selected years is shown on Table 4.

Navy

At present, the PRC Navy is to all intents and purposes a coastal defense force which does not possess nuclear weapons. Naval nuclear strategy appears to be one of survival in the event of a preemptive nuclear attack.

The development of the navy since its formation in 1949 has been spectacular. From a heterogenous collection of World War II vessels left by the Chinese Nationalists in 1949, the force has expanded to a current strength of 1,235 units (Table 2). However, this expansion can nonetheless be attributed to a normal growth pattern and cannot be related to any external stimuli. To comply with a nuclear strategy of survival, the growth of the force necessitated a concomitant need for support and dispersion. ChiCom naval shore facilities have steadily developed matching overall naval growth. From an approximate total of eight facilities in 1949, naval infrastructure now totals more than 170 shore facilities located throughout the three fleet areas.

Since 1963 at least, the Chinese have embarked on a program of providing a number of naval bases with underground facilities. At least 16 bases located throughout the fleet areas have in various stages of completion, underground facilities suitable for entry, berthing and repair of either boats or submarines. The function of the underground installations appears to be two-fold. They provide protected berthing to effect minor repairs as well as storage for missiles, ammunition and logistics. The dispersed location and reinforced construction will improve PRC naval chances of survival in the event of preemptive nuclear strike.

Air Force

Communist China’s strategic air capability is limited to a small force of medium bombers assigned to the Chinese Communist Air Force (CCAF) 4th Independent Regiment (4th IR). A portion of China’s 350 aircraft jet light bomber force could be used in a limited strategic role; however, the IL-28 BEAGLE’s low performance envelope mitigates against its use for strategic bombing.

The 4th IR came into existence with the delivery of 10 TU-4 BULL propeller medium bombers to Peking in February 1953. In following years three more of these aircraft were acquired from the Soviets, and in January 1959 China received two IU-16 BADGER medium jet bombers from the USSR. China began producing the BADGER at the Hsian Airframe Plant in 1968 and now has 32 BADGERs in the operational inventory in addition to 12 BULLs. An additional 19 BADGERs hav been produced but have not yet been turned over to the 4th IR.