Decoding The Nawaz-Vajpayee Summit
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The two-day Nawaz-Vajpayee summit in Lahore marks a milestone in Pak-India relations. It however only reads 'a promising start.' As a milestone that sets the correct direction rather than covers actual miles in what may be a thousand mile journey towards normalization of relations, it was a context-setting summit. In no unclear terms, the three statements that were signed at the conclusion of the summit , convey the realization of the current Indian Chief Executive that only a solution of outstanding bilateral problems can ensure normalization of Pak-India relations. These documents reflected as did his various speeches and comments that Vajpayee was committed through a 'composite dialogue' to the resolution of these issues.
And as for the Pakistani Prime Minister, while articulating his desire for peace in South Asia, he stood-by his commitment to the Kashmiris and to the Pakistanis that the Kashmir issue will remain the core issue in the summit deliberations. He had opted for a high risk political gamble by extending an entirely personal invitation to his Indian counterpart to undertake the bus journey to Pakistan through Wagah. After all by inviting Vajpayee for a Lahore summit Nawaz Sharif had taken his previous one-on-one interactions with Vajpayee to a climax; along with it the level of public expectation and criticism of the summit. With little to show for in terms of concrete bilateral-issue related outcome, positive developments resulted with reference to Indian re-posturing on specific bilateral level issues.
On the core issue of Jammu and Kashmir the Indian Prime Minister demonstrated some openness compared to his predecessors. Vajpayee himself made reference to the issue himself at least itself half a dozen times. Refraining from lumping the issue with cross-border terrorism and external interference the Indian Prime Minister repeatedly affirmed his government's commitment to resolving the Kashmir issue. In pre-departure statement too Vajpayee stressed that his government will 'negotiate with sincerity' on the Kashmir issue. In fact when pointedly asked at the joint press conference about Indian willingness to concede the right of self-determination to Kashmiris of Indian-Held Kashmir, departing from the standard Indian practice of a negative response, Vajpayee clearly stated that 'discussion is going on. Its very difficult for me to say what solution will ultimately emerge. Wait for the outcome of the talks.'
Vajpayee did not rule out self-determination like late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi had done in 1989. Then at the Islamabad joint Rajiv-Benazir press conference The Nation's Editor Arif Nizami had asked Rajiv if the Indian government will acknowledge the Kashmiri right of self-determination.
Similarly Vajpayee addressed practically and verbally , the issue that lies at the heart of the Pakistani distrust of the Indian state. Responding to the criticism that the Indian state remains committed to the notion of Akhund Bharat, of a united India, he acknowledged that 'yes we did not want the break-up of our country, its division created a wound but the wound has now healed. Yet the scar remains and keeps reminding us on how we should live with each other, in peace and as friends.' For the third time in 24 hours Vajpayee said at the February 21 reception hosted by the Governor of Punjab that ' a strong and stable Pakistan is in India's interest.' As a practical manifestation of his government's acceptance of Pakistan Vajpayee arrived at the place where 59 years ago the Muslims of India had passed the Lahore Resolution resolved to create a separate Muslim homeland. Addressing admittedly one of the root causes of a deeply and widely felt issue Vajpayee wrote on the visitors' book' From the Minar-I-Pakistan I wish to assure the people of Pakistan of my country's deep desire for lasting peace and friendship. I have said this and I say this again , a stable and prosperous Pakistan is in India's favour. Let there be no doubt about this.' Through this unique gesture Vajpayee attempted to re-link the Indian and the Pakistanis of a subcontinent whose dividing lines were drawn forever in 1947 through endless blood-baths.
The Indian Prime Minister also openly acknowledged the complexity of a Pak-India normalization process. In pleading for a 'composite dialogue' Vajpayee admitted that there could be no significant progress in the Pak-India normalization process through a single-item approach. Similarly he also realized the limits of any peace-making attempt which pushes Kashmir on the back-burner while looking for 'breakthroughs' on issues of trade, culture, visa relaxation , exchange visits etc.
At the Lahore summit some expected developments took place in the nuclear-related areas. Moving away from what have appeared insolvable bilateral issues the two countries, under international gaze and some domestic concern, admitted that tangible and active bilateral cooperation is indispensable to responsible management of nuclear programmes and arsenals. On the issue of nuclear restraint some progress has been made, as reflected in the Memorandum of Understanding. Essentially broad commitment has been made on cooperation in specific areas of nuclear restraint including taking steps to avoid nuclear accidents and to provide each other advance notification of ballistic missile flight tests. Broad understanding has been reached on reviewing implementation of Confidence Building Measures(CBMs). However on the key issues of non-deployment and non-weaponization no concrete progress has been made at the summit.
Finally all this Indian re-posturing however , warrants at best cautious hope. No more. After the three documents signed at the Lahore Summit are largely indications and assertions of intent. Not of concrete commitments. Uncertainty prevails on two key questions; one, what forthcoming Pak-India negotiations will actually yield on concrete bilateral issues and two what is the longevity of the Vajpayee Prime Ministership. Even if Vajpayee the poet, the adept orator and the Prime Minister, was 'infact speaking from the heart' during his Lahore visit , for Pakistan the question is the extent to which positive actions will match his positive talk. Vajpayee no doubt gave an emphatic assurance at the Governor House reception when, as if alluding to taking difficult decisions on Kashmir , Siachin and on other bilateral issues, he said that 'when we are required to take hard decisions you will find us resolute ,you will not find us retreating.' Nevertheless given Pakistan's experience with the Indian governments in bilateral negotiations the fear will remain whether Vajpayee's pronouncements are genuine or are aimed at regionally and internationally recasting the negative image of an Indian state brutally suppressing Kashmiris and failing to control the Hindu extremist onslaught against the Christian minority.
Also if Vajpayee is genuine and willing to push through the process of peace-making with Pakistan, for now at least his willingness largely flows apparently from his personal commitment. It was after all the Vajpayee-Nawaz chemistry that led to the Lahore summit. Therefore, for this process to move further on and not be sacrificed at the altar of cautious and time-hardened Indian bureaucrats, the survival of Vajpayee's Prime Ministership is a must. A factor however which cannot be guaranteed for any extended period given that Vajpayee heads a somewhat shaky 14 party coalition.
For Pakistan the challenge in the whole process of normalization is to determine what are the terms of its diplomatic engagement with India. Already Pakistan's Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz has indicated that no progress on other issues will take place unless there is some progress on Jammu and Kashmir. There should be no confusion within the government that altering Pakistan's well thought out position of not de-linking the opening up of trade with India from the Kashmir issue, will signal dilution of Pakistan's commitment to the Kashmir cause. Consequently buying wheat and selling power should not precede at least some progress on outstanding bilateral issues, including Kashmir. Dialogue must continue, ways forward must be worked out, but without any roll-back on Pakistan's commitment to the Kashmir issue.
Nawaz Sharif's diplomatic peace offensive towards India will continue. The verdict on it is still not in. Its first 'high point' has ended on a positive note. Yet it is at the foreign secretary level talks where the verdict gradually be 'out.' What transpires during these negotiations will indicate whether India is truly willing to begin covering miles in the long normalization journey with Pakistan.
Meanwhile Nawaz Sharif in remaining determined to go ahead with the Vajpayee trip despite stiff and violent opposition from sections of the Pakistani society demonstrated courage. However in going through with the trip the Prime Minister has behaved like no American-tutored Anwar Sadaat or the crumbling leader Yasser Arafat. He is also no Richard Nixon forcing the Henry Kissinger authored and well-executed China opening. He is simply one who 'feels, believes and does.' Often ill-thought-out moves, even if well meaning. Fortunately for Nawaz Sharif his high-risk gamble of hosting the Prime Minister of an adversary in the politically vibrant Lahore has not back-fired. The Jamaat protestors, who most irresponsibly attacked no less than 10 foreign ambassadors headed to the Prime Minister's banquet, may enjoy only very limited public support. There is nothing in the outcome of the Lahore summit that can embarrass Nawaz Sharif. In fact he has rather defiantly handed some generous gestures, of warm hospitality, of state honors and of sincere and candid talk , to his BJP guest which Vajpayee can astutely use to tackle the violent and vicious opponents of his peace-making effort with Pakistan - if he so wishes.
