THE BEAR HUGS THE COW
From the Board of Editorial Advisors Ambassador (Retd) AFZAL MAHMOOD makes an exhaustive analysis of the revival of the Indo-Russian axis.
The defence pact, firmed up in July this year, envisages partnership in research, development and joint production of sophisticated military equipment. India has emerged as the biggest buyer of Russian defence equipment, including spares, for its armed forces with 45 to 80 percent of the requirements for the Indian army and the Air Force being met by Moscow. The accord, signed during the two-day official visit to India by Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, follows a similar accord which is due to expire at the end of 2000. Under the defence pact, cash-strapped India hopes to pick up 300 T-90 Russian tanks and advanced submarines on soft terms from Russia. What is of even more concern to Pakistan is New Delhi’s intention to launch its own ‘Star-Wars’ project with Russian electronic surveillance hardware and missiles to create shield against Pakistani missiles like Ghauri.
The defence pact is in clear violation of the agreement reached in September last after the Clinton-Yeltsin summit in Moscow under which Moscow agreed to stop all defence cooperation with India including nuclear and conventional arms transfers as an aftermath of New Delhi’s May nuclear tests. The US and Russia also agreed to establish a protected communications capability channel between senior officials of both countries to facilitate rapid and reliable means of communication when faced with fast-breaking cases of export control concern.
Mr. Primakov was accompanied by a high-powered delegation consisting of eight ministers and the Russian Army Chief Colonel General Yuri Bukreev. The Russian army chief has held meetings with the Indian defence minister and the three service chiefs on ‘security and equipment perspective’ in the light of defence cooperation 2010 Accord signed by the two countries and their decision to move towards a strategic relationship. India has a large shopping list including T-90 tanks and a variety of combat aircraft and sea going vessels. New Delhi also signed during the visit MoU with the Russians for possible purchase of 44,500 tonne aircraft carrier ‘Admiral Gorshkov’. Though the ship has been offered free of cost, the total deal will be worth 2000 crore Indian rupees as ‘Admiral Gorshkov’ needs major refit including modifications on its flight deck.
The decision to enter into a strategic partnership will be formalised during Prime Minister Vajpayee’s planned visit to Moscow this year. The wide ranging sweeping document, called the Declaration of Strategic Partnership, is intended to set new parameters and guide the further development of close relationship between the two countries. It is likely to be on the lines of the 1971 Peace and Friendship Treaty which enabled India to halve Pakistan through its military intervention in East Pakistan in 1971.
A Russian Prime Minister is always sure of a warm welcome in New Delhi but the recent visit of Mr. Yevgeny Primakov has significance for a number of reasons. He was the first head of a government to visit India since May when India stunned the world with five nuclear explosions and declared itself a nuclear weapons power. His visit took place immediately after the attack on Iraq by the United States and Britain. Also, his visit took place at a time when India was coming under increasing US pressure to toe Washington’s line on nuclear restraint in South Asia. Primakov was quick to indulge in Cold War rhetoric by proposing a strategic triangle of Russia, China and India.
Primakov’s call to forge a triangular strategic alliance, designed to win political clout in the aftermath of the Iraqi crisis, proved to be a non-starter from the very beginning. China threw cold water on it by declaring that Beijing pursues on independent foreign policy and would prefer to act alone on the global stage. Even India did not buy it as Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee drew the line while making a clear distinction between New Delhi’s relations with Moscow and its ties with Beijing. ‘Indo-Russian relations are time tested’ he observed, ‘but India is trying to improve its relations with China and at present is going towards normalisation’. Vajpayee deftly bypassed the triangular proposal as New Delhi is not willing to join even a symbolic gesture of defiance of the United States. In view of India’s response, Russian Prime Minister hastily clarified that his proposal for a strategic relationship ‘was not a formal proposal’.
The Russian Prime Minister’s proposal was designed to achieve several objectives. It showed Moscow’s anxiety to win back its lost status as a super power by creating another pole in what now is a unipolar world. Another objective was to tell New Delhi that it is now a major player not only in South Asia but also in Asia as a whole. It was also meant to reassure Beijing that strengthening of Indo-Russian relations will not be at the cost of its ties with China. The fourth objective was to reassert Russian claim that it continues to be a key player in Asia. And a no less important objective was to express total disapproval of the US air strikes on Iraq without taking approval from the Security Council.
The Russian Prime Minister assured his hosts that Moscow did not plan to give military equipment to Pakistan. This assurance was in response to Vajpayee’s assertion that arms supplied to Pakistan would be used against India. In the joint statement issued after the conclusion of the talks Pakistan figured briefly with the Russian side lending its support for New Delhi’s efforts to normalise relations with Islamabad on the basis of Shimla-Agreement. However, issues having a direct bearing on the geopolitical and strategic interests of Pakistan figured prominently during the official talks between the two sides. According to the joint statement the two sides agreed on ‘the disturbing implications of the developments in relation to Afghanistan’. Other issues discussed during the meeting between the two Prime Ministers were the concern over ‘the rising Muslim influence’ in the region and its spread to Central Asia. Ironically, it was Mr. Vajpayee, whose own party BJP has a fudamentalist agenda, who raised this issue even in his banquet speech. The Indian Prime Minister asserted, ‘India and Russia are under attack from forces of religious extremism and ethnic exclusivism. We have a stake in each other’s unity, integrity, stability, security and prosperity’.
Primakov’s visit shows that New Delhi continues to occupy a paramount importance in the Russian foreign policy which, in a way, is reminiscent of the Soviet period and the days of the Cold War rivalry. Three considerations are mainly responsible for the continued close relationship between the two countries. The first is the economic imperative to retain the special place acquired by Moscow over the years as the main supplier of defence equipment to India, According to an estimate, the defence accord signed during the Russian Prime Minister’s visit involves defence equipment worth $ 16 billion which Russia will supply to India under the agreement. The second factor, responsible for the close ties, is the two way trade which has grown from $ 906 million in 1994 to $ 105 billion in 1998 and is showing a rising trend. The third consideration which has brought New Delhi and Moscow closer to each other is the shared concern over the rise of fundamentalist tendencies in their neighbouring Muslim countries and the fear of their spread to Central Asia.
The ambitious Indian shopping list to acquire sophisticated defence equipment from Russia on soft terms will further tilt the conventional military balance in favour of New Delhi. What is of even greater concern to Pakistan is the Indian plan, under the recently signed defence agreement with Russia, to acquire anti-tactical ballistic missile system (ATBM) as it will disrupt the delicate strategic balance in South Asia. The acquisition of ATBM capability by India can spark a full fledged nuclear and missile race in South Asia. According to Samir Sen, a former director of India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) the aim of India’s anti-missile capability is to ‘effectively neutralise Pakistan’s missile capabilities’.
India has been pursuing two methods to acquire an anti-missile capability: to develop its own indigenous system and to buy the capability off the shelf. Since 1994, DRDO has been trying to improve its surface-to-air missile called ‘Akash’ to enable it to engage ballistic missiles. India has also shown an interest in Israeli technology applicable to missile defence, particularly the Arrow ATBM and Falcon airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft. India is also developing an AEW platform equipped with phased array radar technology, similar to the one used by Israeli Falcon, to cue its ATBM system.
According to recent Press reports, India is also trying to acquire Arrow technology from Israel covertly to provide Akash with ATBM capability.
India’s efforts to buy an anti-missile system from Russia may now succeed under the new defence pact. India is likely to acquire the A-300 PMU-1 or the S-300V system, capable of intercepting tactical ballistic missiles. The S-300V has reportedly shot down over 60 tactical ballistic missiles with ranges of up to 600 kilometres during tests and has demonstrated a single-shot kill probability of 40 to 70 per cent. An Indian delegation led by the minister of defence, reportedly witnessed the testing of the S-300V system in 1995 at Russia’s Kapustin Yar firing range.
At the end of 1996, Oleg Sidorenks, Deputy Director of Rosvoroozhenie, Russia’s arms export agency, stated: ‘Negotiations are more than half way through and we expect to sell the system to India very soon’. India could have no trouble in integrating a Russian system since its entire air defence system is based on Soviet weapons and technology.
India’s acquisition of an ATBM system could disrupt the delicate nuclear balance by depriving Pakistan of an assured strike capability. India’s anti-missile defence system would seek to neutralize a nuclear strike by Pakistan, thus allowing India to engage in a conventional war without fear of nuclear retaliation from Pakistan. It does not need much insight to realize that New Delhi’s acquisition of a missile defence system (ATBM) in the near future will upset the present nuclear balance that now exists between India and Pakistan. Instead of both countries maintaining a non-weaponized, largely untested and non-deployed nuclear capability, South Asia will see the emergence of two hostile countries armed with nuclear tipped missiles deployed on a hair-trigger alert.
Pakistan has two options to face the ATBM challenge from India. One, to acquire off the shelf anti-missile system from the US or Russia, the only two countries which currently deploy such systems.
The US cannot supply any such system to Pakistan under the Pressler Amendment and Russia will decline to do so because of its close relations with India. It has refused to sell to Pakistan even conventional weapons like tanks. The only other source could be China which is reportedly working on its own ATBM capability. Two, to develop the anti-missile system with indigenous efforts, but it will take, according to Jane’s Defence Weekly, some more years to mature.
It will be a real tragedy if, instead of addressing the long overdue social and economic agendas domestically, India and Pakistan were to indulge in an unaffordable nuclear and missile race. Once India and Pakistan have embarked on an overt nuclear and missile arms race, it will be difficult to slow it down or stop it. There is still time to stop at the edge of the precipice.
