SECURITY AGAINST AGGRESSION

Contributing Editor Air Marshal (Retd) AYAZ AHMAD KHAN

discusses a crucial aspect of our national security

The nation is proud of the achievements of its scientists for nuclear and missile development. Uranium enrichment, fission and fusion expertise, setting up of KRL Labs, reverse engineering, design and manufacture of guidance systems and May 28-31 Chagai nuclear tests. These are feathers in the cap of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan and his colleagues. Faced with India’s nuclear threat and conventional forces superiority. Pakistan’s political leadership, its military and its scientists are determined to prevent Indian military aggression by providing the country with missile based defence and attack capability i.e. nuclear deterrence Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif exercised immense restraint after the five Indian explosions, but Indian ultimatums to occupy Azad Kashmir and public pressure forced him to authorize testing of own nuclear devices. Since Pakistani nuclear response, Bharati jingoists have cooled-off.

Ghauri missile which is now in series production will be used to avert Indian aggression, but there deployment will be cause of for concern, because of the awareness that use of weapons of mass destruction would devastate South Asia beyond recognition. South Asia is in the grip of nuclear and conventional arms race. India has deployed and targeted Pakistan with nuclear weapon capable Prithvi missiles, and plans to deploy AGNI IRBMs as well. AKASH anti-missile missile, claimed to be superior to the US patriot is being positioned to intercept incoming Ghauri and Hatf missiles. Pakistan presently does not possess any anti missile-missile system. Our scientists surely have the expertise, but what about the cost of developing such systems? And what about the human cost as and when there is a free exchange of missiles fitted with nuclear warheads. Many nuclear armed Ghauris and Prithvis will get through the best air defence and anti-missile systems. Do the people of South Asia, especially of India and Pakistan deserve to be totally exterminated? There is an urgent need that better sense prevails in New Delhi and nuclear weaponization is stopped. Pakistan’s defence policy is basically reactive. Islamabad will surely follow suit if Delhi halts its highly dangerous nuclear weaponization and conventional arms buildup. Pakistan must keep its nuclear guard up, as long as Delhi suffers from nuclear fever.

Dr A. Q. Khan’s disclosure on November 25 that serial production of (MRBM) Ghauri had begun, and Pakistan had adequate stocks of Ghauri missile is a matter of satisfaction. Ghauri has a range of 1500 KM and with a nuclear or conventional warhead of 700kg it could reach deep inside enemy territory. Presently there is no evidence that Ghauri MRBMs have been deployed in the field and are planned to be deployed to target major Indian cities and towns. Ghauri weapon system however should be deployed to destroy Prithvi and AGNI missile sites and IAF bases. So positioned it will act as an effective deterrent against Indian pre-emotion by missiles or by strike aircraft. These should never be targeted against populated areas. Dr A. Q. Khan’s reference to the range and accuracy of Ghauri MRBM is to convince the public of its technical perfection, and not to threaten the Indian public with dire consequences.

The present Muslim League government under the premiership of Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif is engaged in a diplomatic dialogue for enduring peace with India. Presently talks with India is a frustrating dialogue of the deaf. But we have to exercise restraint. Threats by either side are counter productive and do not serve the cause of peace in the region. The recent threat of General Malik in Massouri that intensification of freedom struggle in Occupied Kashmir could lead to nuclear conflict, and jingoistic declarations of extremist RSS and BJP leaders like Rajendra Singh, L.K. Advani, Dr Murli Manohar Joshi and other Hindu communalists cannot be ignored. Pakistan cannot ignore brutal human right violations and continued occupation of Jammu and Kashmir by India. We must remain ever vigilant till better sense prevails in Delhi.

It is a matter of satisfaction that series production of Ghauri MRBMs is in full swing, and Pakistan does possess a stock of such MRBMs for operational deployment if required. Surely India and Israel have plans to destroy KRL by air attacks or sabotage at an opportune time. They almost did it during the fortnight preceding the nuclear tests at Chagai. Ghauri MRBMs production, testing, deployment and operational use is sensitive information and should be treated as such.

Dr. A. Q. Khan has talked about the high accuracy of the Ghauri missile during its first test firing from Jhelum, which was also witnessed by COAS General Pervez Musharraf at that time Corps Commander No 1 Strike Corps. Dr. Qadeer Khan recently remarked that ÔWe can conduct more tests of this missile belonging to the HAFT family of missiles, but I think the April test fire produced 100 per cent accuracy’. It is good that the first test of Ghauri was technologically perfect. Being an off-shoot of the HAFT family of missiles, which have been in Pakistan Army’s inventory since a decade, MRBM Ghauri’s technology has surely been greatly improved. But in the ever advancing field of avionics, guidance systems, electronics, computers, and radars more tests are inevitable. It is not right to feel smug about Ghauri MRBM after only one test firing. More test firings must be done under varying wind, weather, and climatic conditions to ascertain its reliability and accuracy in different atmospheric situations.

It is hoped that plans and policy for defence against nuclear attack has been formulated, and coordinated, between the three Services, and between the agencies involved in nuclear and missile development. India is currently war-gaming nuclear battles and survival and protection drills during and after a nuclear attack. Indian nuclear programme is planned to be centrally controlled by Indian Nuclear Command under the Prime Minister of India. On Thursday November 19, India’s BJP led government created the National Security Council. Headed by the Prime Minister the NSC includes service chiefs, the ministers of defence, interior, external affairs, finance and the planning commission chief as members. The NSC will enable the politicians and the Generals, Admirals and Air Marshals to plan India’s defence policy together. Chiefs of the Indian Navy, Indian Army and the Indian Air Force will be permanent members of NSC’s strategic policy group. India’s military leaders see the NSC as a useful institution which will enable them to have greater say on nuclear weaponization, defence spending and political and military strategy to deal with China and Pakistan. Atal Behari Vajpayee talks about the need of nuclear weapons, missiles and strike aircraft for credible deterrent capability against China. But his real aim is to develop nuclear clout to dominate South Asia and the Indian Ocean.

Significantly the geography books introduced by the BJP in the twenty thousand Sang Parivar schools show a new map of India with Pakistan, Bangladesh, Tibet, Mynamar, and the kingdoms of Nepal and Bhutan as integral parts of Akhand Bharat. Indian Ocean is renamed as Hindu Mahasager, the Arabian sea as Sindhu Sagar, and Bay of Bengal as Ganga Sagar. India is determined to be recognized as the sixth nuclear power, and is spending billions on nuclear weaponization; on air power and missiles.

The United States is concerned by Indo-Pak nuclear and missile rivalry and is keen to de-neutralize South Asia. It is engaged in pressure persuasion of Pakistan and India to sign the CTBT, FMCT and the NPT. Pakistan is well aware that signing the Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty, will kill its nuclear programmes, while signing the CTBT would only cause acceptable damage. India is not likely to sign either. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has rightly said that Pakistan has to increasingly depend on its nuclear capability, because conventional military imbalance is hampering peace in South Asia. Conventional military imbalance could be corrected by the return of the illegally held PAF F-16 multi-role fighters, renewed military assistance and procurement programmes by the Clinton Administration. Pakistan’s economy cannot sustain larger standing armed forces, and American advanced technology weapons for the PAF could bridge the conventional power equation with India. US must show greater understanding towards Pakistan. Washington must comprehend that a strong Pakistan is good for stability and peace in South Asia and for the world.